Jones = Chad Pennington 2002?

[StrawHatPatriot]

What is your prediction going into year 2? What will you be looking at in terms of nessecary improvements for both Mac and the offense in general?

I have to see:

Mac be willing to throw downfield. Apparently he's been too quick to check it down when guys are open downfield, when you look at footage. (Remeber the flea flicker in the Colts game, how quickly he dumped it off despite one player being wide open?)

I also wanna see if he can win a game where his team is not running the ball well. We all got fooled by Dak Prescott when Ezekiel was a beast his first 3 years. As soon as Elliot declined, Dak got exposed. (Dak's numbers are noticeably worse when his running backs don't rush for 100 yards.)

Same with Jared Goff when Todd Gurley declined.

I also want to see him pass in the middle of the field. All elite QBs do this. Josh Allen these past few weeks threw with such great zip when attacking the middle and inside the numbers.

Mac Jones passing chart looked like Ben Roethlisberger's this year - quick short outs/slants, and sideline fade routes. Not much else.


Mac is smart and has a high floor, but those issues need to be taken care of, otherwise we'll be like the Cowboys, post-2016 Steelers, and Vikings - rarely being outright bad when healthy, but never really peaking high either.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Anyway I think Mac has a shot at top 10-12 if a lot goes right but it's on the mental side of things. Becoming a puppet master of sorts. That's his upside along with unleashing some arm talent and becoming as mechanical sound as he can.

PFF has Mac at #14 this year (I know, I know, PFF). I looked at a few other sites and they all had Mac's rookie year rated in the 14 to 16 range in 2021. You think Mac's upside is to move from #14 to #10 - #12? Tough to move into the Top 10, I agree, but #12 is a bit pessimistic? Who is ranked in front of Mac in 2021? Tannehill, Cousins, Hurts, Garoppolo, and Murray. If he can be better than those 5 (not a murderer's row), Mac moves up to #8. If Brady retires, Mac movers to #7. I think Mac is a Top 10 QB by 2023, hopefully next year.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I hate those doors!

I agree. Doors can be tough - BGC greatly discounts the difficulty.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

I hear you. Every once and a while we'll see the gap between a "good" QB and an elite one and it's a big gap.

Like you can win with Cousins, Carr and Jimmy but have little room for error. They can't and won't cover up mistakes. They won't carry you. You need a lot in order to win but that's life without an elite guy back there.

Just thought it was interesting to bump this thread. I got a lot of **** for how I wrote about and describe Mac before he was here, before the draft.

Not going to lie I like being right and pointing it. Potentially unlocking his arm through mechanics. How he dealt with pressure. Use of RPO. Comps to Chad, Carr, Cousins etc ... Turns out me and Lance Zierlein know what we're talking about and a few posters on Pats Fans are half-re/tarded.

Heck, that's being unfair to Carr. Dude has a really powerful deep ball that i havent seen Mac come close to yet. Mayock and Gruden are clowns, I wanna see him with a better coach and gm and team that isn't full of instability. But I get your point.

Even guys like Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo didn't win ****.

Check the chiefs cap space, they have 4 superstars on offense and 2 defensive superstars and are doing the rest with middle of the pack guys. Yes , if hill or Kelce are injured they are toast , but the formula seems to work .

No point having too many middle classmen because come the playoffs you could be beaten by one of these speedy offenses .

Maybe shanahan saw that evolution a while back while deciding to punt on trey Lance.

Unless they tweak rules, I feel defense will become obsolete in the new NFL.

Also.... offensive schemes are just more dynamic now as well and innovative. Teams switching between RPOs, QB runs, WR Jet sweeps, stretch vertical west coast concepts, and the overall proliferation of the West Coast offense that can make any QB look decent.

What scheme are the Patriots running? We don't have any dynamic plays or formations. I kept on waiting for Josh McDaniels to unveil some stuff after the bye week but he didn't, our offense looked like some generic 2002 offense.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

PFF has Mac at #14 this year (I know, I know, PFF). I looked at a few other sites and they all had Mac's rookie year rated in the 14 to 16 range in 2021. You think Mac's upside is to move from #14 to #10 - #12? Tough to move into the Top 10, I agree, but #12 is a bit pessimistic? Who is ranked in front of Mac in 2021? Tannehill, Cousins, Hurts, Garoppolo, and Murray. If he can be better than those 5 (not a murderer's row), Mac moves up to #8. If Brady retires, Mac movers to #7. I think Mac is a Top 10 QB by 2023, hopefully next year.

But then you have to account for guys who can move up.

Russell Wilson if healthy, with a better roster will be ahead if him. Same with Lamar Jackson. Same with Matt Ryan.

Derek Carr with a legit coach can move up. Same with Cousins.

A big reason I'm concerned is because I have serious doubts about this roster construction. It'll be hard to make enough improvements this year. Damn near Every QB in the top 10 of the PFF rankings has a legit #1 Receiver. Belichick hates drafting them.

As you said, we'll have to wait until 2023.

 

[Bill Lee]

Jesus…based on the conclusion here (top 10-12 QB if all works out), I think the Patriots should just continue drafting QBs. The nightmare scenario, to me, is spending years on a guy whose ceiling gives you little chance to compete against the great ones. After seeing the absurd skill level of Mahomes and Allen this last weekend, I’d rather go with a guy who at least has a chance to be a superstar, even if the floor is lower.

This forum would melt down with shrieks of "fire Bill the GM", "wasted pick" and "my binkie was still on the board!".

Personally I think we're in ride or die mode with Mac. That die was cast on draft night, this is what we got for #15, and chances are we aren't going to suck enough to get a top pick any time soon. I think we're pretty damn lucky to get him. It's pretty clear Bill wasn't going to move up, and if someone took all the top QB by #15 he would have taken Barmore and we would have rolled for one more season with Cam and Stid. We may release or trade Stid at some point and backfill with a later round QB, but I don't think we're going to use a high draft pick on a QB for quite a while.

During the draft period I read the Pennington comps, and the Derek Carr comps. I also Rich Eisen ask a guy on his show why he wouldn't pick Mac Jones and he said that he didn't want the "minivan" of quarterbacks, safe, practical, reliable. Instead he wanted the sports car, harder to handle and less convenient but able to provide some thrills. Not sure this is a fair thing to say, but there is at least a tiny bit of truth to it.

Personally I think Mac has a lot of room to grow and personally I'm willing to wait and see what he becomes.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This forum would melt down with shrieks of "fire Bill the GM", "wasted pick" and "my binkie was still on the board!".

Personally I think we're in ride or die mode with Mac. That die was cast on draft night, this is what we got for #15, and chances are we aren't going to suck enough to get a top pick any time soon. I think we're pretty damn lucky to get him. It's pretty clear Bill wasn't going to move up, and if someone took all the top QB by #15 he would have taken Barmore and we would have rolled for one more season with Cam and Stid. We may release or trade Stid at some point and backfill with a later round QB, but I don't think we're going to use a high draft pick on a QB for quite a while.

During the draft period I read the Pennington comps, and the Derek Carr comps. I also Rich Eisen ask a guy on his show why he wouldn't pick Mac Jones and he said that he didn't want the "minivan" of quarterbacks, safe, practical, reliable. Instead he wanted the sports car, harder to handle and less convenient but able to provide some thrills. Not sure this is a fair thing to say, but there is at least a tiny bit of truth to it.

Personally I think Mac has a lot of room to grow and personally I'm willing to wait and see what he becomes.

Yeah…the forum would melt down, but I wouldn’t. I‘m not saying to declare Mac a bust. I just think until you‘re certain you have a great QB, you have to stay aggressive.

That’s a good analogy by Eisen. The league has changed…it isn’t so different from the NBA where the best player typically wins the series. With any other position, you draft a player, and if he turns put to be good at the pro level, it’s a good pick. You have an asset. It’s complicated with a QB. Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, etc. were pretty good picks; they’re NFL caliber quarterbacks. But they still can get you further from a championship.

 

[Bill Lee]

That’s a good analogy by Eisen. The league has changed…it isn’t so different from the NBA where the best player typically wins the series. With any other position, you draft a player, and if he turns put to be good at the pro level, it’s a good pick. You have an asset. It’s complicated with a QB. Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, etc. were pretty good picks; they’re NFL caliber quarterbacks. But they still can get you further from a championship.

I agree. The hope is that we're zigging while they're zagging. In our case the "zig" is to double-down on our ball control style of offense and hope we are on a path to get results like we got in 2018 against teams like the Chiefs and the Rams. Currently we have nowhere near the talent to have such expectations, which is why I'm saying we're still early in the rebuild. It's also not clear that our players understand that means we need to basically have zero penalties and zero turnovers to win. The style demands damn near perfect execution to win. Everyone needs to step up their game a level.

 

[sb1]

I wouldn't put it past Bill at all to bring in competition for Mac either in the draft or a veteran FA to push him. That's what he does.

 

[Bill Lee]

I wouldn't put it past Bill at all to bring in competition for Mac either in the draft or a veteran FA to push him. That's what he does.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him draft a "developmental" QB.

I would be surprised to see him use a 1st/2nd/3rd rounder to do so.

IMO, that's just not how he does resource allocation.

He has Stid on the roster and presumably Hoyer would re-up.

I don't think he'd throw money at a vet, witness the cheap deals he threw at Cam.

 

[Marko]

Are we talking Chandler or Tebucky?

 

[amfootball]

Yeah…the forum would melt down, but I wouldn’t. I‘m not saying to declare Mac a bust. I just think until you‘re certain you have a great QB, you have to stay aggressive.

That’s a good analogy by Eisen. The league has changed…it isn’t so different from the NBA where the best player typically wins the series. With any other position, you draft a player, and if he turns put to be good at the pro level, it’s a good pick. You have an asset. It’s complicated with a QB. Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, etc. were pretty good picks; they’re NFL caliber quarterbacks. But they still can get you further from a championship.

This is where I am at as well. I think what complicates things further with Mac is Bill is not going to build a dynamic/high flying offense around him and that is what he will need (all QBs need it in today's league) to have a puncher's chance vs the top AFC teams. And things are only going to get tougher if Rodgers does go to Denver.

 

[Marko]

I hear you. Every once and a while we'll see the gap between a "good" QB and an elite one and it's a big gap.

Like you can win with Cousins, Carr and Jimmy but have little room for error. They can't and won't cover up mistakes. They won't carry you. You need a lot in order to win but that's life without an elite guy back there.

Just thought it was interesting to bump this thread. I got a lot of **** for how I wrote about and describe Mac before he was here, before the draft.

Not going to lie I like being right and pointing it. Potentially unlocking his arm through mechanics. How he dealt with pressure. Use of RPO. Comps to Chad, Carr, Cousins etc ... Turns out me and Lance Zierlein know what we're talking about and a few posters on Pats Fans are half-re/tarded.

Let’s keep in mind that Mahomes does also have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Don’t see many current players cribbing that play besides Hill.

 

[Bill Lee]

Interesting thought...

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

PFF has Mac at #14 this year (I know, I know, PFF). I looked at a few other sites and they all had Mac's rookie year rated in the 14 to 16 range in 2021. You think Mac's upside is to move from #14 to #10 - #12? Tough to move into the Top 10, I agree, but #12 is a bit pessimistic? Who is ranked in front of Mac in 2021? Tannehill, Cousins, Hurts, Garoppolo, and Murray. If he can be better than those 5 (not a murderer's row), Mac moves up to #8. If Brady retires, Mac movers to #7. I think Mac is a Top 10 QB by 2023, hopefully next year.

I don't think so.

I think Mac was about 16-17 this year if I'm being objective. He was a very good rookie, average NFL QB so a jump into the potential elite. With guys who are legit playmakers and game changers might be a bit too optimistic when Mac didn't show any of that last year. We haven't seen elite or someone who is the system yet, it's a tough sell to me.

Plus like @StrawHatPatriot mentioned you have guys like Lamar who had a down year but has shown more early on than Mac.

Even if we compare Jones to the guys he's comp'd to like Cousins & Carr. Both played the position better this year.

Most are just assuming Mac makes a big jump and everything falling in place. We've seen in irl and the NFL things don't go in a straight line.

Btw this is strictly next year. I'm not saying a bigger jump isn't possible later on but this is strictly next year. With this group who I think could be maximized a little more.

Heck, that's being unfair to Carr. Dude has a really powerful deep ball that i havent seen Mac come close to yet. Mayock and Gruden are clowns, I wanna see him with a better coach and gm and team that isn't full of instability. But I get your point.

Even guys like Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo didn't win ****.


Also.... offensive schemes are just more dynamic now as well and innovative. Teams switching between RPOs, QB runs, WR Jet sweeps, stretch vertical west coast concepts, and the overall proliferation of the West Coast offense that can make any QB look decent.

What scheme are the Patriots running? We don't have any dynamic plays or formations. I kept on waiting for Josh McDaniels to unveil some stuff after the bye week but he didn't, our offense looked like some generic 2002 offense.

Early on Carr was a conservative checkdown machine. He got killed for it.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Interesting thought...

True but this class is weak af and that's being nice. I'm higher on a few guys (Ridder/Strong) than most but it's not a class you would want to gamble on. Someone always bites at the QB Apple but I really wouldn't be shocked if we saw a top ten without a QB. Only OL and DL players.