Jimmy's Value

[resdubwhite]

I may just wait until game 4 is over. but last nights audition was just peachy

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Big difference between drafting a QB vs. getting what amounts to a 1-year rental and then maybe having him go elsewhere.

His value would be significantly higher if we traded him at game 5 this year, thus giving the other team close to 2 years of a good QB with minimal pay - maybe we could get some OL help in return.

 

[Huckleberry1]

There is zero chance Garoppolo with a sample size of 4 games nets a 1st round pick.

If he plays at an elite level for a full slate of 16+ games and you find a ridiculous GM then maybe. But I don't think any of us want to see that scenario come into fruition.

Osweiler got 18 million a year for a five game stretch of mediocrity. I guarantee the Browns will be willing to give their top five pick for Garrapolo if he plays like he did last night for the next three games. He would be getting that done against some of the best defenses in football and that would make him a proven commodity, one who could walk in the door and be ready day one. The other consideration would be McDaniels getting a HC job and bringing him with him at a first round price. This isn't Mallett we are talking about, he could never have pulled off what Garrapolo did last night. That doesn't mean however that it is a lock, he still has to play at a high level for the next three games.

The other consideration would be the price if they wanted him this season once Brady returns, in which case it would be two first round picks imo.

 

[BradyFTW!]

That is very true about drafted QBs, which Garoppolo is not.

I'll be thrilled if I'm wrong and there really is a team is moronic enough to do that but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I wouldn't hold my breath either, but Osweiler got an $18M per year contract based on a smallish stretch of games in which he looked worse than Garoppolo did last night. 3 more performances like that--ie even better stats against lesser defenses than the Cardinals'--and I don't see why a 1st wouldn't be in play. A 1st for Garoppolo would still be less than the Vikings just gave up for Bradford.

 

[PatsGuy]

It just takes 1 team to overpay. Teams in need of franchise QB

Jets
Bills
Browns
Saints
Redskins
49ers
Bears

Saints would make sense cos Brees' contract is up after next year and Payton and BB could do a deal to keep him away from the AFC. I could see Jimmy running chip Kelly's offense too.

The Bill signed Taylor to a extension for big $$
The Jets drafted Hackenberg so they'll give him a look c
If I was Pats GM not only would I look at the offer, but where each team fall in the draft order

 

[fnordcircle]

Big difference between drafting a QB vs. getting what amounts to a 1-year rental and then maybe having him go elsewhere.

His value would be significantly higher if we traded him at game 5 this year, thus giving the other team close to 2 years of a good QB with minimal pay - maybe we could get some OL help in return.

I don't think this is an issue as I'm sure the team would let Jimmy negotiate a contract with a trade partner before the deal was done.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well, with only a college resume and no years in the NFL he was worth a second round pick.

With three years studying under the GOAT with the best team ever, under the best coach + (if/when) he does a great four game audition, he would be worth more than a second round pick I would think. And what's better than a second round pick?

I think Jimmy's worth will be determined almost entirely by his on-field performance, with little to no regard for where he was originally drafted or the 'studying under Brady/Belichick' factor. Cassel/Hoyer/Mallett have proved that isn't exactly a magic bullet.

The "he was worth X before three years of grooming, so he must be worth more than X now" reasoning fails to take cost control into account. Part of a player's value when drafted if that you have him locked up for four years to evaluate him and get cheap production out of him. Conversely, anyone going into the last year of his contract is going to be worth less because that's no longer the case. Any team trading for him is paying for him twice: in the draft capital they give up, and then again in the long-term extension they give him. That's why Matt Cassel wasn't able to fetch a first after 2008.

That said, I could definitely see Garoppolo being worth a 1st if next year's QB trade/FA market is in line with this past offseason's. 3 more starts like the last one and it becomes pretty easy to argue he's worth as much as Osweiler and Bradford.

My dream scenario is that we get exactly what the Eagles got for Bradford: a 1st and a 4th. Also, coincidentally, exactly what Goodell stole from us for Deflategate. At that point, the narrative becomes clear: by suspending Brady, Goodell forced the Patriots to start Garoppolo for 4 games, giving him the audition reel which enabled the Patriots to recoup the draft picks that he took away. Add in going 3-1 or 4-0 in Brady's absence, and the net on-field effect of Deflategate becomes literally nothing.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I may just wait until game 4 is over. but last nights audition was just peachy

The thing that is most impressive about Garrapolo is that the speed of the game isn't too much for him to handle, and that is the baseline for anything else good to happen. He is going to continue to be tested like he was last night against the fish, Texans, and Bills, who can all bring serious pressure, and if he continues to play this well against them his price tag will be high.

 

[patsinthesnow]

The 2017 draft is loaded. It'll be awesome if Jimmy G can get us a first rounder in that draft.

Imagine if he brings back a pick high enough to draft McCaffrey? That kid is what Reggie Bush should've been. He could play RB & WR at a high NFL level.

Can't wait for Brady's suspension to backfire in Goodell's face.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think Jimmy's worth will be determined almost entirely by his on-field performance, with little to no regard for where he was originally drafted or the 'studying under Brady/Belichick' factor. Cassel/Hoyer/Mallett have proved that isn't exactly a magic bullet.

The "he was worth X before three years of grooming, so he must be worth more than X now" reasoning fails to take cost control into account. Part of a player's value when drafted if that you have him locked up for four years to evaluate him and get cheap production out of him. Conversely, anyone going into the last year of his contract is going to be worth less because that's no longer the case. Any team trading for him is paying for him twice: in the draft capital they give up, and then again in the long-term extension they give him. That's why Matt Cassel wasn't able to fetch a first after 2008.

Unless the team wanting him was looking to get the deal done now. Cleveland in particular may well look at all their squandered first rounders as well as the hole they dug themselves by dumping the Wentz pick and losing Griffin and decide it would be worth it for two seasons as well as a tag taking them to three.

The only way the Patriots move Garrapolo in season is if the offer is too good to refuse, otherwise I think most would for once be comfortable that Garrapolo could take them to the promised land if Brady went down, if he continues playing like last night. Unless they offered two firsts I think they would play it safe and keep him through the season then deal him.

 

[fnordcircle]

I think Jimmy's value will end up being higher than Cassell but probably tops out at Bradford. Which is insane to me, because I'd take Jimmy over Bradford any day. God the Vikings are so dumb.

Still, this assumes Jimmy's play stays roughly as good as last night which is hardly a given.

 

[PatsGuy]

With RGIII out for possibly the year, along with his extensive Injury history, I could c the Browns ponying up.

 

[TBR]

It just takes 1 team to overpay. Teams in need of franchise QB

Jets
Bills
Browns
Saints
Redskins
49ers
Bears

Saints would make sense cos Brees' contract is up after next year and Payton and BB could do a deal to keep him away from the AFC. I could see Jimmy running chip Kelly's offense too.

I think one of the 49ers, Bears or Browns will end up picking top 3 and take DeShaun Watson.

Redskins might be an option if Cousins implodes this year.

Saints aren't realistic option since they just extended Brees/expect him to play at least 2 more years. They would then have to give up a likely 1st rounder AND pay Garoppolo big $.

Surprise option: Detroit Lions.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I think Jimmy's value will end up being higher than Cassell but probably tops out at Bradford. Which is insane to me, because I'd take Jimmy over Bradford any day. God the Vikings are so dumb.

Still, this assumes Jimmy's play stays roughly as good as last night which is hardly a given.

There's a couple reasons to have your fingers crossed for Jimmy yielding exactly a first and a fourth, just like Bradford. Poetic justice, etc.

I agree that's pretty much the ceiling of Garoppolo's value, despite agreeing that I'd take Garoppolo over Bradford any day. But that's because the Vikings panicked and paid way, way too much for Bradford. I'm not going to assume the Patriots will be so lucky, but the rough equivalent would be someone giving up a pair of firsts. I don't see it happening, but I guess it's theoretically possible in the same way I would've considered Bradford being worth a 1 and a 4 only a crazy-unlikely theoretical possibility right up until it went and happened.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Can't wait for Brady's suspension to backfire in Goodell's face.

I think it already has.

I travel around a lot and while people I know that hate the Pats and still think they are cheaters also realize that Goodell is an incompetent, manipulative, lying empty suit who has zero credibility and integrity.

 

[saspack]

Should we keep Jimmy and trade Brady rather if Jimmy keeps playing like this?

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[Huckleberry1]

That is very true about drafted QBs, which Garoppolo is not.

I'll be thrilled if I'm wrong and there really is a team is moronic enough to do that but I wouldn't hold my breath.

If you were a Browns fan who has watched blow first round pick after first round pick for fifteen years and saw Garrapolo put up four games like last night against really good defenses would you rather wait until April and hope for Franchise QB in the draft or use the pick on one who has shown they can play at a high level in the NFL?

 

[Tunescribe]

It boggles my mind that so many people here have consigned Garoppolo to trade bait. This player could be worth more to the Patriots than a draft pick or two as an important contributor for years to come.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Should we keep Jimmy and trade Brady rather if Jimmy keeps playing like this?

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That is never going to happen. One-they shouldn't get rid of the GOAT while still playing like the GOAT, and Two- Brady's contract makes that almost impossible, they would lose so much cap space that simply signing Garrapolo to an extension would be the better move, although that is unlikely as well.

 

[Huckleberry1]

It boggles my mind that so many people here have consigned Garoppolo to trade bait. This player could be worth more to the Patriots than a draft pick or two as an important contributor for years to come.

It boggles my mind that anyone would consider trading Brady while he is still the best player in football.