It's about the turnovers

[Ring 6]

If there is one thing that stands out in the BB era as a major contributing cause for the patriots success it is turnovers.
Since 2000 the patriots have the fewest turnovers in the NFL by a whopping 60. (Houston technically has only 42 more but didn't exist for 2 of the seasons).
They have 112 fewer turnovers than the league average over that time which close to a half a turnover per game lower.
During this time they are also #2 in takeaways at 509 for a turnover margin of +171 (in 272 games). Second best is +76.
In these 272 games (338 turnovers) they have had zero turnovers in over 1/3 of them, 95 games, and are 84-11.
With 0 or 1 turnover, 177 games they are 151-26.
With 2 turnovers they are 34-19 (still pretty amazing).
With 3 they are 13-11. With 4 or more they are 3-15.

Where it gets even more interesting.
Win turnover battle 137-12
Even in to battle. 30-18
Lose to battle. 34-41 (at -1 they are 24-10)


What is truly most amazing in that is the fact they have won the turnover battle 149 times and lost it only 75 and have been -2 or worse only 41 times in 16 years.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Good post and this is one of the big reasons they lost to the Giants twice. Lack of turnovers.

 

[Ring 6]

Good post and this is one of the big reasons they lost to the Giants twice. Lack of turnovers.

Well it was 1:1 the first time and -1 (1:0) the second, so that is a ratio they normally win a lot with. I think scoring 14 and 17 had more to do with it than not getting turnovers.

As an aside starting with that 2007 season, in 160 games, regular and post season the Patriots, with Brady have scored 17 or less points 20 times, really 18 because 2 were week 17 games with players resting (they scored 17 or less 6 times in 2008 when brady was out and 1 with brisset last year btw) and were 5-15. 14 points of less is only 10 with Brady games out of 160.
So I'd have to say that scoring offense in approx. the bottom 10% of all their games is the big factor here.

 

[BlacknGold77]

so same as every other team in the history of football? didnt think winning the turnover battle = winning more games was a new discovery

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

so same as every other team in the history of football? didnt think winning the turnover battle = winning more games was a new discovery

It helps to read the post and grok the ACTUAL points the OP was making...

Since 2000 the patriots have the fewest turnovers in the NFL by a whopping 60. (Houston technically has only 42 more but didn't exist for 2 of the seasons).
They have 112 fewer turnovers than the league average over that time which close to a half a turnover per game lower.
During this time they are also #2 in takeaways at 509 for a turnover margin of +171 (in 272 games).

 

[SuperStang83]

Don't kid yourselves, it's because they take air out of balls.

 

[Ring 6]

so same as every other team in the history of football? didnt think winning the turnover battle = winning more games was a new discovery

If that's what you took from this, you should reread the post.

 

[Tony2046]

Do remember the Sharp analysis BS from a few years ago? The one that stated that because of 0.3 psi the Pats fumbled less by a statistically outrages amount?

Guess who has had the fewest turnovers over during the last three years since the NFL fraudulently blamed puffs of air for all of NE's success?

That's right. Your beloved Pats.

And, btw, they have turned the ball over less than before defamegate. Hahaha.

 

[Froob]

Do remember the Sharp analysis BS from a few years ago? The one that stated that because of 0.3 psi the Pats fumbled less by a statistically outrages amount?

Guess who has had the fewest turnovers over during the last three years since the NFL fraudulently blamed puffs of air for all of NE's success?

That's right. Your beloved Pats.

And, btw, they have turned the ball over less than before defamegate. Hahaha.

Lol bet we could get "I DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR EXCUSES! Texans had less turnovers, PERIOD!"

 

[Ring 6]

Lol bet we could get "I DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR EXCUSES! Texans had less turnovers, PERIOD!"

No actually they have 42 more, in 2 fewer seasons, they just have a few less than the 3rd fewest team.

 

[patsfan13]

so same as every other team in the history of football? didnt think winning the turnover battle = winning more games was a new discovery

I believe they are better at each level of To efficiency. What is striking is their success when -1 in TO ratio, I was surprised by the 24-10 when -1 That I believe is way above the league average.

the 10-31 when at -2 or sores in To ratio is the telling stat. Then think about Brady's looking to avoid bad decisions, throw ball away rather than take a sack, His historically low INT rates, BB intolerance of players on ST, RB and WR who don't take care of the ball.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

That's the secret to success and it works.

More than hitting on drafts, more than dominating D, more than amazing O, more than clutch special teams. These all play a role, but it is important that they fit into the overall philosophy.

Let TB12 do his thing and also win the TO battle, on both sides of the ball.

Everyone WANTS to do it, but we clearly do it better. It seems to be the result of a top-to-bottom organizational commitment. Pick players who tend to play that way, coach them up to play that way even better, and sit them on their butts /send them packing when they don't pull it off.

 

[Ring 6]

I believe they are better at each level of To efficiency. What is striking is their success when -1 in TO ratio, I was surprised by the 24-10 when -1 That I believe is way above the league average.

the 10-31 when at -2 or sores in To ratio is the telling stat. Then think about Brady's looking to avoid bad decisions, throw ball away rather than take a sack, His historically low INT rates, BB intolerance of players on ST, RB and WR who don't take care of the ball.

I don't think its so much the success rate at each level of +/- as it is the frequency that they are +, that they have no turnovers, etc.

They have only lost the turnover battle 75 times in 272 games.
They have zero TO in 95/272 and just one in 82 more.

 

[BTTA]

There's a chicken-egg factor in the turnover ratio - win stats. If you are a dominant team, you can stick to what you do best and are more comfortable with, and need to take fewer risks. You also push the other teams into more risks and more discomfort. Winning creates turnovers which creates winning which creates turnovers which...

 

[FCB02062]

Yup, there were some of us in here saying the historically awful 2011 D was "propped up" by an incredible plus/minus turnover ratio...only to be shut down as Jets fans...

. It came home to roost finally in the SB when they didn't get 3 or 4 turnovers in a game and didn't get those extra possessions

 

[Tony2046]

That's the secret to success and it works.

More than hitting on drafts, more than dominating D, more than amazing O, more than clutch special teams. These all play a role, but it is important that they fit into the overall philosophy.

Let TB12 do his thing and also win the TO battle, on both sides of the ball.

Everyone WANTS to do it, but we clearly do it better. It seems to be the result of a top-to-bottom organizational commitment. Pick players who tend to play that way, coach them up to play that way even better, and sit them on their butts /send them packing when they don't pull it off.

Speaking of Turnovers. Guess who lead the league in special teams TO's?

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Special Teams Fumble Recoveries

 

[oldrover]

Speaking of Turnovers. Guess who lead the league in special teams TO's?

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Special Teams Fumble Recoveries

Mmm.... me likey.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

The Patriots have ranked in the top 5 of the league in turnover margin in 11 of the last 13 years with Brady as a starter:

Year- team rank
2016- 5th
2015- 5th
2014- 2nd
2013- 4th
2012- 1st
2011- 3rd
2010- 1st
2009- 10th
2008- 15th (Cassel)
2007- 3rd
2006- 5th
2005- 24th
2004- 2nd
2003- 2nd

The teamrankings.com database on turnovers only goes back to 2003

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Turnover Margin per Game on TeamRankings.com

 

[supafly]

They only turned the ball over 11 times during the regular season, last year. Remarkable.

Oddly enough, they turned it over almost 50% of this during the postseason, alone. 3 against the Texans, and 2 more against the Falcons.

 

[DarrylS]

There used to be a stat about how turnovers effected game outcomes, Pro Football Focus??, of course I cannot find it, end result is that if a team has 2+ the probability of losing goes up significantly...

As pointed out by Andy Johnson that is the basic value for the Patriots, protect the football on offense and create turnovers on ST's and defense... sounds simple doesn't it??