It would be wise to draft another QB (ala, Jimmy & Jacoby).. Who in April?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

He wouldn't have been the first or fifth Air Raid guy with immense talent to have been completely lost in the pros, but that was basically the entire argument against him.

I understand that due to that college system there was some immediate skepticism, but how can these scouts not notice that a guy like this has generational talent? I don’t think anyone can say they’ve ever seen a quarterback with his natural abilities before. In evaluating him in private drills, only a few teams noticed that he can basically throw the ball on a dime to any spot on the field, from any body angle, and probably has the most gifted arm ever? I’m having trouble with this and understanding how the scouting process works when someone like him isn’t the obvious first overall pick.

 

[primetime]

I understand that due to that college system there was some immediate skepticism, but how can these scouts not notice that a guy like this has generational talent? I don’t think anyone can say they’ve ever seen a quarterback with his natural abilities before. In evaluating him in private drills, only a few teams noticed that he can basically throw the ball on a dime to any spot on the field, from any body angle, and probably has the most gifted arm ever? I’m having trouble with this and understanding how the scouting process works when someone like him isn’t the obvious first overall pick.

Plenty of people thought the same about Tim Couch (who was a Manning/Luck style high school Chosen One phenom) and Ryan Leaf (who was considered on par with Manning as a prospect), both of whom came from that same system. It isn't just any system, it is the system of all-time busts.

Like with Rodgers and Tedford, those rules are great guides... until suddenly they aren't.

 

[Kasmir]

I threw up a little bit when I saw "Eason" in your list?

I guess 37 years isn't long enough.

I well remember Eason. Good QB until you pressured him, then he looked for a place to fall to avoid taking the hit.

I'm really high on on Stidham's potential, but with him, too, my worry is how does he handle pressure. As KontradictioN has pointed out, his Senior year raised a lot of questions about that, and cost him likely first round status when he came out.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The thing I don't understand is the incredibly high number of people on this board just assuming that Jarrett Stidham is the next great franchise QB. Based on what? He's a fourth round pick. The only time I saw him play against NFL competition, he came into a game in the fourth quarter, threw a pick six, and they pulled him right back out.

There are people here that always way overestimate Patriots players. An embarrassing number of people were talking about Danny Etling being our next QB, which was ludicrous from day one.

When Harry is terrible, it's too early to judge him. Yet we're sure Stidham is a stud based on a lot less evidence (like zero).

You are right. We do not know if Jarrett Stidham is a legitimate starting NFL QB. I have asked the same question as you and the general consensus was that he is impressing the coaches while on the practice field.

 

[Tony2046]

I would rather go the Teddy Bridgewater root ...
Tank a bit and roll the dice on 2021 draft .........
Beef up the OL and DL this draft ......

Dude! What?

Never go full Stevenson.


If you're going to go for the next QB then go for it. Don't bridge over shyt.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I understand that due to that college system there was some immediate skepticism, but how can these scouts not notice that a guy like this has generational talent? I don’t think anyone can say they’ve ever seen a quarterback with his natural abilities before. In evaluating him in private drills, only a few teams noticed that he can basically throw the ball on a dime to any spot on the field, from any body angle, and probably has the most gifted arm ever? I’m having trouble with this and understanding how the scouting process works when someone like him isn’t the obvious first overall pick.

He played in Texas Tech's Air Raid offense, which gives everybody insane numbers but doesn't necessarily translate to the pros.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I understand that due to that college system there was some immediate skepticism, but how can these scouts not notice that a guy like this has generational talent? I don’t think anyone can say they’ve ever seen a quarterback with his natural abilities before. In evaluating him in private drills, only a few teams noticed that he can basically throw the ball on a dime to any spot on the field, from any body angle, and probably has the most gifted arm ever? I’m having trouble with this and understanding how the scouting process works when someone like him isn’t the obvious first overall pick.

I had Mahomes as QB1 and just missing the 1st Rd. Should have been higher but close enough for me. Esp considering where others had him.

The biggest thing that worried me about him was the fact that I felt there was a big chance someone would/could **** him up. Trying to change mechanics which is very hard to do. Most prospects just don't change dramatically and trying to do so can bust a guy. Also fit, he needed a great landing and hit the lottery with Andy.
So basically my biggest concerns were answered day 1.
For example I felt better about Jackson regarding those two things. I felt most would take him as is and not ignore the obvious.

Evaluating and grading prospects is borderline insane. On one hand we have more info than ever before. How fast they run, tons of tape/clips, info on medicals/red flags, individual workouts and so on. That said it's still very hard to know how a guy integrates into any system, teammates, being away from all the familiarity from home, friends etc. How a prospect deals with not being the big dog. Injuries. In college everything is slower. Once you hit the NFL you must be ready to hit the ground running in every way. At times it looks easy with a guy like Mahomes but it always is in hindsight. At the time it's a 100% tougher making projections before the draft. Again Mahomes should have been a slam dunk but what about the other few hundred prospects there is. He's definitely the exception when it comes to 7 rounds, hundreds of prospects.

To my knowledge no one has ever done what @TB_Helmet is planning to do with comparing grades to the AV Score from PFR and multiple "experts" against each other. That could be very enlightening on who is actually good at doing this. I've never seen any type of rankings, accuracy on who is better or worse than the other guy.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I had Mahomes as QB1 and just missing the 1st Rd. Should have been higher but close enough for me. Esp considering where others had him.

The biggest thing that worried me about him was the fact that I felt there was a big chance someone would/could **** him up. Trying to change mechanics which is very hard to do. Most prospects just don't change dramatically and trying to do so can bust a guy. Also fit, he needed a great landing and hit the lottery with Andy.
So basically my biggest concerns were answered day 1.
For example I felt better about Jackson regarding those two things. I felt most would take him as is and not ignore the obvious.

Evaluating and grading prospects is borderline insane. On one hand we have more info than ever before. How fast they run, tons of tape/clips, info on medicals/red flags, individual workouts and so on. That said it's still very hard to know how a guy integrates into any system, teammates, being away from all the familiarity from home, friends etc. How a prospect deals with not being the big dog. Injuries. In college everything is slower. Once you hit the NFL you must be ready to hit the ground running in every way. At times it looks easy with a guy like Mahomes but it always is in hindsight. At the time it's a 100% tougher making projections before the draft. Again Mahomes should have been a slam dunk but what about the other few hundred prospects there is. He's definitely the exception when it comes to 7 rounds, hundreds of prospects.

To my knowledge no one has ever done what @TB_Helmet is planning to do with comparing grades to the AV Score from PFR and multiple "experts" against each other. That could be very enlightening on who is actually good at doing this. I've never seen any type of rankings, accuracy on who is better or worse than the other guy.

Good post. Thanks.

I have no doubt how difficult this is to. I mean, you are literally paying 22-year old kids, who haven’t even lived in the real world yet, more than many CEOs and executives; meanwhile even these executives who are often long-term fit coin flips despite years of proven experience in similar environments. So yes, scouting and projecting is incredibly difficult and unpredictable.

I’d be very curious to see @TB_Helmet ’s study on this. Should be very interesting because a lot of these pundits love to give their “grades” like one day after the draft...lol...like that tells us anything at all.

 

[primetime]

Good post. Thanks.

I have no doubt how difficult this is to. I mean, you are literally paying 22-year old kids, who haven’t even lived in the real world yet, more than many CEOs and executives; meanwhile even these executives who are often long-term fit coin flips despite years of proven experience in similar environments. So yes, scouting and projecting is incredibly difficult and unpredictable.

I’d be very curious to see @TB_Helmet ’s study on this. Should be very interesting because a lot of these pundits love to give their “grades” like one day after the draft...lol...like that tells us anything at all.

To be fair, a quarterback means a lot more to success of a team than a CEO, and even in purely economic terms an individual football team has a greater market cap than most companies considering the relative value of the NFL. But your point is still by and large correct, it's just an even bigger gamble (and contract structures and the cap mean you can't just cut your losses either the same way you could if you hired Johnny Manziel as CEO instead of drafting him).

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Good post. Thanks.

I have no doubt how difficult this is to. I mean, you are literally paying 22-year old kids, who haven’t even lived in the real world yet, more than many CEOs and executives; meanwhile even these executives who are often long-term fit coin flips despite years of proven experience in similar environments. So yes, scouting and projecting is incredibly difficult and unpredictable.

I’d be very curious to see @TB_Helmet ’s study on this. Should be very interesting because a lot of these pundits love to give their “grades” like one day after the draft...lol...like that tells us anything at all.

I think it'll be very enlightening. Again I've never seen any type of accuracy rating, ranking among the experts. Or even comparing them to what teams are doing. There's so much talk about the draft being a crapshoot. Some think no one is better than anyone else.

What if we find out some are just consistently better than most? I'm sure we could see where different strengths and weaknesses are? Like maybe some are better at evaluating QB's & others CB's.

I think it has incredible potential tbh and am very excited to see the results. Selfishly bc mine will be put through the ringer and others bc this has been a hobby/passion for a long time.

 

[Deus Irae]

While I could be wrong, I don't see a true elite QB in this draft. So, if I was in charge of a team looking to rebuild, I'd push as much capital into next year as possible, and try to find a way to get the top pick in next year's draft. If I was going for the rebuild, I wouldn't waste a draft pick on a QB this season.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

While I could be wrong, I don't see a true elite QB in this draft. So, if I was in charge of a team looking to rebuild, I'd push as much capital into next year as possible, and try to find a way to get the top pick in next year's draft. If I was going for the rebuild, I wouldn't waste a draft pick on a QB this season.

I have no idea who is an elite QB and who isn’t. I just know that the prospects all tend to be up and down for about a year prior to the draft, with the consensus often being they are sure top-10 picks to sometimes dropping way down or even out of the draft altogether. The only player where I can clearly see it is Trevor Lawrence next draft; that guy is a great NFL prospect if I’ve ever seen one.

Why is Burrow not elite in your mind? Was Tua before the injury? Herbert? I thought this was supposedly a class with some high rated QBs near the top...

I saw the odds on the first pick, and it’s going to be Burrow with zero doubt.

 

[XLIX]

I had the same feeling but no relation, it would be hard for us old times to get past the name though.

It’s no relation but, amusingly enough, his dad’s name is Tony. And he played some college ball at Notre Dame.

 

[Deus Irae]

I have no idea who is an elite QB and who isn’t. I just know that the prospects all tend to be up and down for about a year prior to the draft, with the consensus often being they are sure top-10 picks to sometimes dropping way down or even out of the draft altogether. The only player where I can clearly see it is Trevor Lawrence next draft; that guy is a great NFL prospect if I’ve ever seen one.

Why is Burrow not elite in your mind? Was Tua before the injury? Herbert? I thought this was supposedly a class with some high rated QBs near the top...

I saw the odds on the first pick, and it’s going to be Burrow with zero doubt.

I just think that we're seeing a lot of QBs that are flashing because of quirks, or are just being oversold for one reason or another. In some cases, it's the system that's the quirk (Think Jackson, at this point in his development). In others, its a skill that is good enough to excel at the college level, but not (to me) where it would do the same in the pros (Think Mayfield). And I think that's continued into this next class.

It's not personal about the QBs. They're just the product of a media starving to find QBs for long term stories in the various cities. And it's absolutely possible that the media's actually getting it right, and I'm way off base. But I'm seeing a lot of Matt Ryans/Eli Mannings, and not Bradys/Peyton Mannings.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I just think that we're seeing a lot of QBs that are flashing because of quirks, or are just being oversold for one reason or another. In some cases, it's the system that's the quirk (Think Jackson, at this point in his development). In others, its a skill that is good enough to excel at the college level, but not (to me) where it would do the same in the pros (Think Mayfield). And I think that's continued into this next class.

It's not personal about the QBs. They're just the product of a media starving to find QBs for long term stories in the various cities. And it's absolutely possible that the media's actually getting it right, and I'm way off base. But I'm seeing a lot of Matt Ryans/Eli Mannings, and not Bradys/Peyton Mannings.

Brady and Peyton are huge outliers even with one being the 1st overall pick. Brady being the biggest in the history of the sport (s). We're talking Mount Rushmore of QB's for most people. All-time top 10 QB's.

I think most people would be/should be very happy with a Matt Ryan. He's been a top 5-12 QB since entering the league more often than not.
You have guys like Brady, Brees, Peyton etc who have been top tier while Ryan has been in that 2nd tier for the most part. Much more realistic than looking for the next "Brady or Manning".

I said in another post in the draft forum that I wouldn't against trading our 2020 1st for a 2021 1st if Brady moves on. Still though trading for #1 overall would be damm near impossible, even #2 if Fields has another year like he did this past season. You have to lose a ton of games, get into the top 10 and still trade a ton of picks to even have a shot.
Right now, after those two, a guy like Love looks as good as a gamble this year as any next year. Of course things will change but again he'd be as good as it gets next year, most likely out of range if he went to OK or Texas Tech. Chances are he balls out and is a top 5-10 pick. This year there's he a decent chance he falls out of the lottery and small possibility to 23 if teams like Indy, LAC, Mia, TB. Most likely have to get in front of Indy at 13. Could see Jax taking a shot at 9 if they don't love GM.

 

[zipster9]

While I could be wrong, I don't see a true elite QB in this draft. So, if I was in charge of a team looking to rebuild, I'd push as much capital into next year as possible, and try to find a way to get the top pick in next year's draft. If I was going for the rebuild, I wouldn't waste a draft pick on a QB this season.

I think Burrow has tons of potential. He does all things very well. Under pressure he is not bad.

Next year's draft class is worst than this years, IMO.

I like Eason. He played baseball and football, similar to Mahomes. Both has cannon arms. Though, Mahomes is quick on his feet.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Brady and Peyton are huge outliers even with one being the 1st overall pick. Brady being the biggest in the history of the sport (s). We're talking Mount Rushmore of QB's for most people. All-time top 10 QB's.

I think most people would be/should be very happy with a Matt Ryan. He's been a top 5-12 QB since entering the league more often than not.
You have guys like Brady, Brees, Peyton etc who have been top tier while Ryan has been in that 2nd tier for the most part. Much more realistic than looking for the next "Brady or Manning".

I said in another post in the draft forum that I wouldn't against trading our 2020 1st for a 2021 1st if Brady moves on. Still though trading for #1 overall would be damm near impossible, even #2 if Fields has another year like he did this past season. You have to lose a ton of games, get into the top 10 and still trade a ton of picks to even have a shot.
Right now, after those two, a guy like Love looks as good as a gamble this year as any next year. Of course things will change but again he'd be as good as it gets next year, most likely out of range if he went to OK or Texas Tech. Chances are he balls out and is a top 5-10 pick. This year there's he a decent chance he falls out of the lottery and small possibility to 23 if teams like Indy, LAC, Mia, TB. Most likely have to get in front of Indy at 13. Could see Jax taking a shot at 9 if they don't love GM.

Yes - if the Patriots could get a QB who was guaranteed to be at Matt Ryan’s level, I can’t see why anyone would say no to that.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I'd like us to draft somebody whose name I don't know out of Rutgers, Fresno State, or I guess Michigan. Wait, do we know the Michigan guy's name? And by "we" I mean you guys, since I obviously don't.

I'm putting my money on Guy Whose Name I Don't Know in the 4th round.

I am wondering whether BB is tempted to go crazy on D and in the run game with a true game manager QB, a consistent guy not a record setter. He really did come from the D side after all. I think that somewhere in Mr. Wacky Creative Gadget Play's subconscious there might still be a voice we all remember from Madden 05 (plagiarized) saying "3 things can happen on a pass play and 2 of them are bad."

Think of it this way... if BB could design the perfect offensive play that, if well executed, could not be defended (very easy to do, that is the premise of the game)... or a defensive scheme that, well executed, could not be scored on.... which one would make him happier?

I think he drafts a guy, drafts him low, and keeps rolling the dice. One thing he won't do is buckle to the pressure of the moment, whatever that may prove to mean.

 

[primetime]

I'd like us to draft somebody whose name I don't know out of Rutgers, Fresno State, or I guess Michigan. Wait, do we know the Michigan guy's name? And by "we" I mean you guys, since I obviously don't.

I'm putting my money on Guy Whose Name I Don't Know in the 4th round.

I am wondering whether BB is tempted to go crazy on D and in the run game with a true game manager QB, a consistent guy not a record setter. He really did come from the D side after all. I think that somewhere in Mr. Wacky Creative Gadget Play's subconscious there might still be a voice we all remember from Madden 05 (plagiarized) saying "3 things can happen on a pass play and 2 of them are bad."

Think of it this way... if BB could design the perfect offensive play that, if well executed, could not be defended (very easy to do, that is the premise of the game)... or a defensive scheme that, well executed, could not be scored on.... which one would make him happier?

I think he drafts a guy, drafts him low, and keeps rolling the dice. One thing he won't do is buckle to the pressure of the moment, whatever that may prove to mean.

Shea Patterson is the Michigan guy. He, uh, occasionally flashes NFL talent? Sometimes he looks like Manziel without a drinking problem extending plays and firing perfect passes on the run, though mostly he looks bad.

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady and Peyton are huge outliers even with one being the 1st overall pick. Brady being the biggest in the history of the sport (s). We're talking Mount Rushmore of QB's for most people. All-time top 10 QB's.

The difference between Brady/Peyton and Ryan/Eli is 8-2
The difference between Brady/Peyton and Ryan/Eli is 13-3

In the NFL, you win titles one of three ways:

1. Historically elite QB
2. Historically elite defense
3. Hot run

And hot runs are not sustainable.