Is Wes Welker worth a 2nd round pick?

[khayos]

Yes I do get it. The Miami Dolphins will not match the offer and the New England Patriots will have overpaid for, at best, a #2 wide receiver.

I think he means that its probably only a 4 year deal for 18 million... the extra years are fluff

 

[Brady to Brown]

Yes I do get it. The Miami Dolphins will not match the offer and the New England Patriots will have overpaid for, at best, a #2 wide receiver.

The Patriots will never pay all that money. They have made a serious offer to him and he will get to see it. But when he looks at it, he will see that it is not possible for him to earn all of it. Yet it will be more than the Dolphins are in a position to pay him. And if the Dolphins do pay to keep him, then the Patriots have made the Dolphins spend money they would not have other wise had to spend. Its win - win for Bill.

 

[Brady to Brown]

I think he means that its probably only a 4 year deal for 18 million... the extra years are fluff

I did, thank you.

 

[Metaphors]

Don't know if this has been discussed but a 2nd round pick has significant trade-up value. I would love to see the Pats draft Willis and/or Nelson in the 1st round, but neither may be there at 24. Using pick #60, the Pats can move up from 24 to 15...or 28 to 17.

I know it is theoretical and they need a willing trade partner, but pick #60 could be the means to get a player they really want, rather than settling for "the next guy" or trading down. Welker is nice and all, but I think I would rather have the capital to go get who I want in the first round.

Obviously pending the rest of free agency, but it looks like Carolina (#14), Pittsburgh (#15), Jacksonville (#17), Cincinnatti (#18) and the Giants (#20) may have similar draft needs as the Pats and the Jets are always threats to jump up from #25. Just something to think about...

 

[chowder]

Don't know if this has been discussed but a 2nd round pick has significant trade-up value. I would love to see the Pats draft Willis and/or Nelson in the 1st round, but neither may be there at 24. Using pick #60, the Pats can move up from 24 to 15...or 28 to 17.

I know it is theoretical and they need a willing trade partner, but pick #60 could be the means to get a player they really want, rather than settling for "the next guy" or trading down. Welker is nice and all, but I think I would rather have the capital to go get who I want in the first round.

Obviously pending the rest of free agency, but it looks like Carolina (#14), Pittsburgh (#15), Jacksonville (#17), Cincinnatti (#18) and the Giants (#20) may have similar draft needs as the Pats and the Jets are always threats to jump up from #25. Just something to think about...

Moving up would also mean a bigger contract to pay for the player. I have a feeling that some good players will fall to the Pats without the need to move up and the Pats will either take the best player available or trade down for more picks and/or future picks.

 

[everlong]

Let's say everybody is right and this contract is back loaded with coin Welker is never going to see.

Deion for 6/39 or a first round pick

or

Welker for say 5/20 minus a second round pick.

It's closer. Welker to Brown is the better comparison but Deion is the player we let go. Welker isn't as good as Branch and he isn't as good as Brown in his prime.

I'm still not sold and have to agree with Tippet that we overpaid for a second receiver. I don't see Miami matching this.

 

[PATRIOTS-80]

I'm still not sold and have to agree with Tippet that we overpaid for a second receiver. I don't see Miami matching this.

Not being rude or anything ... but the whole idea of a poison pill is that it is impossible for Miami to match it.



If Northcutt gets 3 1/2 million bucks, and Givens gets 5 million, Welker is worth 3 1/2 to 4.

We already know that Welker is getting 10.5 million in guaranteed money. That's not a signing bonus ... that's (if the reports are true) how much he will make (probably) in his first three years. There's no way to know for sure until the details are released. But if I'm right, Welker is averaging 3.5 million his first three years.

 

[shakadave]

"I will never draft another WR on Day One. I will never draft another WR on Day One. I will never draft another WR on Day One. I will never draft another WR on Day One."

----Bill Belichick, January, 2007

 

[Kdo5]

Ok the second round pick is what the main debate should be about. Its a backloaded contract and he will never get that type of money.

 

[rookBoston]

This is a close call for me. I voted Yes, but when I think that the 2nd rounder could be a player like Lamarr Woodley or Eric Weddle it makes me pause.

One thing that I think people may have wrong: this is all about the receiving game, this is entirely about the kicking game. Welker is coming in because Brown and Faulk are not game breakers at PR, and that part of the Pats game hasn't been a weapon in a few years.

The fact that he's a credible threat in the receiving game is a nice side benefit. But Welker is going to see the football the same way Tim Dwight did-- on punts and in situational passing situations out of the slot. He's a young player on the rise.

Comparisons to Deon Branch are interesting:
- with Brady passing to him Deon was the SB MVP. But, Deon looked somewhat pedestrian this past season.
- Welker has looked like a weapon on a Miami offense that didn't have anything going right. So, in an offense where he has an OL that can slow the pass rush, a QB who scans the field like few others in history, a strong running game, and a set of WRs and TEs around him who are all legitimate targets... he could have SB MVP potential in him. Who knows for sure?

If we get four good years out of him, the 2nd will be well spent. If he's in Foxboro for a year and done... well, obviously...

In the end, I'm confident that BB has his valuations worked out.

 

[Metaphors]

Moving up would also mean a bigger contract to pay for the player. I have a feeling that some good players will fall to the Pats without the need to move up and the Pats will either take the best player available or trade down for more picks and/or future picks.

The same thing could have been said about signing Adalius Thomas as well. Why sign him early in FA when that just means a bigger contract? Why not just wait and see who is left later on and take the best linebacker available? Because they WANTED Adalius Thomas, not just a good linebacker at a good price.

I think you underestimate how much the braintrust targets specific players in the draft. I think it has been mentioned before that the Pats draftboard is not very large. Maybe they have a good feeling that the players they want will be there at 24 and 28...or even later with a trade down as you suggest. My point is that you shouldn't just look at pick #60 based on the players that will be available then, which all may be less valuable than Welker. Pick #60 is an asset that can be utilized in a variety of positive ways. One of which is obviously to get Welker. I'm just not so sure that it is the best use of the asset.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Well im torn, if I think he is worth a second round pick that in the last few yrs turned out to be.. Marquies Hill, Bethal Johnson Chad Jackson, Adrian Klemm.. Then I say lets do it..

But If we are doing this , if he is going to be the next Deion Branch, or a number 1 reciever.. Forget about it..

 

[bradmahn]

Some people say that Welker is only a YAC-guy, and not a deep threat as if that is a bad thing. I have some news for you, fellas, Deion Branch wasn't a deep threat either, he was very much a YAC-guy. Rarely was Branch called to run a 60 yard post or go deep (not saying it didn't happen, 'cause it did, but that's not what Branch was good at), he could catch a ten to twenty yard pass and make it a 30 yarder with some nifty shake and bake after the catch. Welker is going to be able to do the same, with just as much ability as Branch to occasionally go 60 yards. He's a good receiver and definitely worth the second rounder *(I also think that the 38.5 million dollar contract is misleading). Make no mistake about it, Welker isn't here to replace a third receiver like Troy (God Love 'Im), he'll be here to replace Deion.

 

[DarrylS]

He is worth it, as the vote is now 104-56, almost 2 to 1 and the Pats Fans board always knows what is best.

 

[italia44]

I'd like to repeat a scenario I wrote on my post about Welker:

If Bill Polian signed Welker to an offer sheet to replace Brandon Stokely,giving up Indy's 2nd rd choice (#64)........How would you feel?

Wouldn't you be piss-d that Manning had another weapon and that they "only" gave up a lowly 2?

Forget the money in this deal,it's not really a consideration for the time being.If the Colts or Jets
had done this we'd be kicking ourselves for missing out on "our" type of player,who is only 25,who is only going to get better under Brady and BB.

 

[MDPATSFAN]

I'd like to repeat a scenario I wrote on my post about Welker:

If Bill Polian signed Welker to an offer sheet to replace Brandon Stokely,giving up Indy's 2nd rd choice (#64)........How would you feel?

Wouldn't you be piss-d that Manning had another weapon and that they "only" gave up a lowly 2?

Forget the money in this deal,it's not really a consideration for the time being.If the Colts or Jets
had done this we'd be kicking ourselves for missing out on "our" type of player,who is only 25,who is only going to get better under Brady and BB.

Love this move! Proven performer with the heart of a lion....He'll help win now while waiting for CJack's breakout game.

 

[Iverson]

There's no way Wes freaking Welker is worth a 2nd round pick.

 

[italian pat patriot]

i don't really know

it seems too high (i would have done for a 3rd)

but BB and SP knows much more then myself - so...let's do it !

 

[everlong]

Not being rude or anything ... but the whole idea of a poison pill is that it is impossible for Miami to match it.



If Northcutt gets 3 1/2 million bucks, and Givens gets 5 million, Welker is worth 3 1/2 to 4.

We already know that Welker is getting 10.5 million in guaranteed money. That's not a signing bonus ... that's (if the reports are true) how much he will make (probably) in his first three years. There's no way to know for sure until the details are released. But if I'm right, Welker is averaging 3.5 million his first three years.

I understand the poison pill concept and at 3.5M/year that's a much better contract. I still don't think he's worth a second rounder but we shall see.

 

[everlong]

I'd like to repeat a scenario I wrote on my post about Welker:

If Bill Polian signed Welker to an offer sheet to replace Brandon Stokely,giving up Indy's 2nd rd choice (#64)........How would you feel?

Wouldn't you be piss-d that Manning had another weapon and that they "only" gave up a lowly 2?

Forget the money in this deal,it's not really a consideration for the time being.If the Colts or Jets
had done this we'd be kicking ourselves for missing out on "our" type of player,who is only 25,who is only going to get better under Brady and BB.

Actually if it was the Colts I'd be laughing that they spent money on a high priced slot receiver to keep Manning happy vs signing their defensive players.

If it was the Jets I'd think that they over payed yet I would have wished he went out of the division.

I like Welker and have often wished he was ours for the right price I'm just questioning the price. A 3rd rounder would be much more palatable.