Is Trey Lance worth Patriots to trade up to get?

[Kontradiction]

Matt Ryan is 36. I can realistically see them taking him at 4 assuming Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields go 1-2-3. Either that, or they could trade out of that spot for a team that needs a QB, and Lance could go there. If neither of those happens, the Patriots need to be on the phone with Detroit for the 7th pick immediately.

 

[JMC00]

Coach will not Reach for a rookie qb this year, mark my words. I.M.O. we are not Drafting the 7th qb in this years first round draft unless hell freezes over. We are going to pick up a free agent qb after the draft with a low cap hit. Bill is not spending 50 mill and draft picks for a F.A.! Bill will not reach! Once a Walmart shopper, always a Walmart shopper. Can't teach an old dog new tricks, end of story. My take.

Join Date: August 2020
First post was March 2021
Claims the 2020 draft was awful

I would say he is our 1st game starter. No Rookie is going to start for Bill. My question is in Bill we trust over? How many years do we need to see here to evaluate. His last 2 drafts where awful. I don't get it.

So what was your other account before it got banned?

 

[ashley]

Without knowing for sure what trades could happen between now and then, Detroit at number 7 looks like the highest where a trade could happen. Lawrence and Wilson will go with the first two, Fields or Mac to SF at number 3, I suspect Atlanta opt for best player available in Pitts,

Pitts makes sense for Atlanta, but I could also see them either taking a QB there or as recent reports have said trading out.

 

[lancerman]

If you don't have a franchise QB and think you can get a franchise QB in the draft, you get him.

Dugger, Harry, Wynn, Rivers, Jones, Brown, Easely, Collins, Jones, Solder....

Those are the first picks made by NE in the last 10 drafts. Don't tell me any 3 or 4 of those is worth more than a franchise QB.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

The question should be.. Is Trey Lance a better NFL QB (NFL QB being the key phrase there ) than let's say Kellen Mond? One is going to cost a significant amount more in draft stock than the other.

Not going to pretend to know but based on things I've read/seen it seems like that isnt as easy to answer as it seems when you look at the total package.

 

[Lansdowne]

Fields is from Georgia and Falcons fans want him taken to replace Ryan some day. Only thing is the Falcons have Ryan under contract through 2023, and they may only be able to stomach the cap hit if they wait until that 2023 season to get rid of him. That means either sitting on Fields for two years or having an expensive franchise icon in Ryan as the backup. Would also mean Ryan would have to look over his shoulder whenever he has a bad game as I’m sure the locals would be ready to see their homegrown young prodigy step in.

If that is the scenario and we see Lawrence, Wilson, Jones, and Fields all go four consecutive picks, then we’re in trouble if the aim is to get one of those top 5. That leaves just Lance and there are many interested suitors. So I hope Atlanta goes with Pitts.

 

[IllegalContact]

No....Lawrence is the only can’t miss

none of the other ones are worth giving up 3-4 potential starters....Fields is intriguing but the other ones may as well all be josh rosens until proven otherwise

 

[IllegalContact]

The question should be.. Is Trey Lance a better NFL QB (NFL QB being the key phrase there ) than let's say Kellen Mond? One is going to cost a significant amount more in draft stock than the other.

Not going to pretend to know but based on things I've read/seen it seems like that isnt as easy to answer as it seems when you look at the total package.

Right....which is greater, trey lance or kellen mond plus 3-4 starters

 

[Kdo5]

Dugger, Harry, Wynn, Rivers, Jones, Brown, Easely, Collins, Jones, Solder....

Those are the first picks made by NE in the last 10 drafts. Don't tell me any 3 or 4 of those is worth more than a franchise QB.

We put too much value on our first rounders. The rest of our roster looks pretty good and under contract for a few seasons. It’s time to go big or go home for that QB.

 

[Lansdowne]

The question should be.. Is Trey Lance a better NFL QB (NFL QB being the key phrase there ) than let's say Kellen Mond? One is going to cost a significant amount more in draft stock than the other.

Not going to pretend to know but based on things I've read/seen it seems like that isnt as easy to answer as it seems when you look at the total package.

Most of these prospects are scouted and ranked based on how their game will translate to the NFL, not necessarily by how great they were in college. That’s why a player like Lance is rated so high despite limited tape on him and playing against inferior competition compared to Mond who has four years experience in a Power 5 conference.

So whereas with Mond they’ve had a lot more to see and determined he’s not up to par with the elite prospects, Lance is seen as a moldable piece of clay who compares favorably to the likes of Andrew Luck, Josh Allen, and Steve McNair whereas the comparisons I’ve seen for Mond range from Dak Prescott to Josh Dobbs. Scouts generally see Lance’s skill set as something that should translate to a potential Pro Bowl caliber QB, where Mond is pegged as an NFL backup that could be a starter but needs more fine tuning for that to happen.

It’s why I think a franchise that already has a proven QB locked up for the next two years can afford that time and is better served with a guy like Mond who can develop in that timeline. I don’t put us in that category, where we have Cam for 1 year max before we need to know who the starter is for 2022.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I’ve already conditioned myself for a WR in the first and Kellen Mond or Davis Mills In the second.
Has anyone thought about us trading up a few spots for the top WR on our board and take our QB after?

 

[Ring 6]

The question should be.. Is Trey Lance a better NFL QB (NFL QB being the key phrase there ) than let's say Kellen Mond? One is going to cost a significant amount more in draft stock than the other.

Not going to pretend to know but based on things I've read/seen it seems like that isnt as easy to answer as it seems when you look at the total package.

The chances of a guy you take in the second round becoming a top 10 QB are minute.
The real question is what is a better team. One with a top 10 QB or one that stinks at the QB spot but got to make a couple more draft picks?
If you don’t draft the qb you have little if any chance of ending up with a top one. If you don’t draft one at the top of the first round you have little if any chance of getting one.
Of course QBs are over drafted. They are so important the cost is high. But rather than looking it as requiring a “sure thing” when there really isn’t suck a thing, it should be looked at the other way, if you don’t go get a top prospect (which then becomes your coaching staffs job to develop) it’s pretty much a sure thing you will continue to suck at the most important position, won’t win, and those picks you saved won’t matter any way.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Other than Lawrence and perhaps Wilson, no QB in this draft is worth trading away extra first round picks in 2022 and 2023. Way too risky. Look what happened with the Texans. They thought their pick would be at the bottom of the draft order and it wound upon being the #3 overall.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

A jump to #4 is going to be too expensive. Atlanta will demand #15 and the next two years' 1sts plus maybe other picks, which is what SF had to pay to move from 12 to 3. One of the reasons our roster was so tired was because we lost two 1st rounders in recent years: one to Deflategate, and the other spent on Harry that has not worked out. So sacrificing two 1sts is gonna get you eventually. Can anyone think of an example of a team that gave up two additional 1sts for a draftee and was successful thereafter?

 

[upstater1]

Coach will not Reach for a rookie qb this year, mark my words. I.M.O. we are not Drafting the 7th qb in this years first round draft unless hell freezes over. We are going to pick up a free agent qb after the draft with a low cap hit. Bill is not spending 50 mill and draft picks for a F.A.! Bill will not reach! Once a Walmart shopper, always a Walmart shopper. Can't teach an old dog new tricks, end of story. My take.

$50 million?

The great thing about rookie QBs is that their contracts for the first 4 years are relatively low. A backup QB makes more.

Figure $18-20 million for 4 years with a $12 million signing bonus. That's an average of about $5m a year.

 

[ivanvamp]

No.

He has yet to play against anyone with NFL talent.

Of course, he has yet to play WITH anyone with NFL talent as well. Meaning, the main cause of his gaudy stats and production is... him.

 

[upstater1]

Seems to me that over the last 5 years, the hit rate on first rounders is a little better than the 40% or 50/50 proposition that it's been portrayed as. I see it as 10 hits to 6 busts. And that's when you include Darnold and Wentz on the busts list. If you think of them as jury still out, it goes to a 10 to 4 ratio. 1st round draft picks over 5 years:

Success:
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Pat Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Jared Goff

Jury is still out:
Tua Tagilovoa
Jordan Love

Busts:
Dwayne Haskins
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitch Trubisky
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch

 

[pazrul72]

It depends 100% on what they have to give up to get him. 2 firsts and maybe a second to get to #4 I would say hard pass. I like lance a lot and would be pleased as all get out having him as the perfect understudy to Cam for a year. #15 and second this year and next to move to #7 I am all in. The thing to keep in mind with Lance is he is really raw, super high upside but starting him this year is a mistake. If you give him the time to develop I think he could be an Aaron Rodgers. Who also sat for a year to hone his craft. Cam takes all the crap if it takes all the new pieces a year to mesh and being the guy after Brady so the pressure is on him not the rookie. Plus watching a guy like that work and say the right things is important for a rook.

However to keep myself from getting too excited I do remember all the other physical freaks who looked like they could not fail and ended up busting. I do think the bust possibility is higher on Lance then any other top QB but his ceiling is so damn high you roll that die and hope for the best.

 

[Triumph]

No.

He has yet to play against anyone with NFL talent.

Hes being hyped up like a HOF lock.

Trevor Lawrence is going to have so much pressure on him, that he could fail. Before Mahomes, the last 1st round QB to win a Super Bowl was Joe Flacco from the 2008 draft.

Kyle Trask is the best option if he were to fall to 15. Nobody expects much from him, but the raw tools are all there to succeed in the NFL as a passing QB. Not a rushing QB. When the NFL changes the rules to where you cant lay a glove on a QB running out of the pocket, then I will want a Justin Fields.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Hes being hyped up like a HOF lock.

Trevor Lawrence is going to have so much pressure on him, that he could fail. Before Mahomes, the last 1st round QB to win a Super Bowl was Joe Flacco from the 2008 draft.

Kyle Trask is the best option if he were to fall to 15. Nobody expects much from him, but the raw tools are all there to succeed in the NFL as a passing QB. Not a rushing QB. When the NFL changes the rules to where you cant lay a glove on a QB running out of the pocket, then I will want a Justin Fields.

Way too much of a reach to take Trask at 15. He should easily be there in the 2nd IMO.