Is there a huge advantage to having Le'Veon Bell's versatile skill set?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I am curious: is there really a huge advantage to having a guy like Le'Veon Bell, who is a very good traditional running back, a good pass catcher, and a three-down player who can play a ton of reps?

The Steelers are paying him $12M for 2017. I get that Bell is a great player; I certainly wish the Patriots had him, and I think he's one of, if not the, best all-around running backs in the NFL. What I don't understand is if there's a big strategic advantage to having Bell's versatility versus delegating the running back role to various players, each of whom specialize at their role. The Steelers will carry multiple running backs like the Patriots, so it won't be like Bell saves multiple roster spots for other positions (nor would it be wise to rely on anyone's health to that extent.)

Bell played 12 games last season, so I am projecting it out to 16 games. I am looking at efficiency, not really volume, though in this case, the volume is roughly equal when projected. I realize there are other Pittsburgh running backs and Dion Lewis was injured half the season, but I think there is still a pretty smooth baseline of numbers here.

Running on 1st And 10

It's pretty tough to come up with splits on every down and distance, but I think that 1st and 10 is a pretty good barometer of how a RBs production, as typically teams run similar formations. Here are the 2016 numbers.

Bell (16 game projection): 178 attempts, 808 yards, 4.5 YPA
Blount/White/Lewis: 190 attempts, 811 yards, 4.3 YPA

Not a very big difference here.

Receiving Stats (yards per target)

Here are the receiving stats in 2016:

Bell (16 game projection): 125 targets, 819 yards, 6.6 YPT
Blount/White/Lewis: 118 targets, 683 yards, 5.8 YPT

Bell was more successful as a receiver, although he scored only two TDs (as opposed to five TDs for the Blount/White/Lewis) as a pass catcher. No question Bell is an elite receiver, but I am curious to see if White is almost as good in 2017 based on his progression.

Touchdown Percentage

To avoid small sample sizes, this will be for Bell's entire career with the Steelers and White/Lewis/Blount's entire career with the Patriots. This actually favors Bell, as I can see Blount's 2016 season was an anomaly. This is touchdowns / total number of touches (passing targets plus rushing attempts). The number of touches are comparable.

Bell: 1199 touches, 31 TDs, 2.59%
Blount/White/Lewis: 1094 touches, 45 TDs, 4.11%

Cost

Bell will now cost $12M in 2017 for the Steelers and perhaps more if they want to extend him.

Lewis is at about $1.5M; White's "big extension" put him at $4M, and Blount was making generously $1.5M the last few seasons. Total cost is about $7M. The Patriots have since moved on from Blount and brought on both Gillisee and Burkhead, and they are still well under that $12M mark.

 

[patriot1136]

As long as he doesn't get hurt in the playoffs, he's pretty awesome

 

[BlacknGold77]

Attrition rate is so high it's a negative to me to have the Bell model.

When he goes down, you're screwed vs having specialized backs you can easily replace them as needed

 

[bormio]

As long as he doesn't get hurt in the playoffs, he's pretty awesome

He turtled. Never convince me otherwise.

 

[fnordcircle]

DeAngelo Williams is a good example about how you really can't take a Madden approach to evaluating football players. It's all situational.

I'd never argue that Bell is overall the inferior player to DeAngelo, but I would argue that against us Bell is *significantly* worse. I groaned when Bell went down because I knew DeAngelo was going to come in and run all over us.

 

[supafly]

He turtled. Never convince me otherwise.

I dunno. I think Tomlin knew that he was injured and conveniently chose to keep him off of the report. After all, he did have major surgery that he's still partially recovering from, now.

 

[PatsFan2]

I am curious: is there really a huge advantage to having a guy like Le'Veon Bell, who is a very good traditional running back, a good pass catcher, and a three-down player who can play a ton of reps?

The Steelers are paying him $12M for 2017. I get that Bell is a great player; I certainly wish the Patriots had him, and I think he's one of, if not the, best all-around running backs in the NFL. What I don't understand is if there's a big strategic advantage to having Bell's versatility versus delegating the running back role to various players, each of whom specialize at their role. The Steelers will carry multiple running backs like the Patriots, so it won't be like Bell saves multiple roster spots for other positions (nor would it be wise to rely on anyone's health to that extent.)

Bell played 12 games last season, so I am projecting it out to 16 games. I am looking at efficiency, not really volume, though in this case, the volume is roughly equal when projected. I realize there are other Pittsburgh running backs and Dion Lewis was injured half the season, but I think there is still a pretty smooth baseline of numbers here.

Running on 1st And 10

It's pretty tough to come up with splits on every down and distance, but I think that 1st and 10 is a pretty good barometer of how a RBs production, as typically teams run similar formations. Here are the 2016 numbers.

Bell (16 game projection): 178 attempts, 808 yards, 4.5 YPA
Blount/White/Lewis: 190 attempts, 811 yards, 4.3 YPA

Not a very big difference here.

Receiving Stats (yards per target)

Here are the receiving stats in 2016:

Bell (16 game projection): 125 targets, 819 yards, 6.6 YPT
Blount/White/Lewis: 118 targets, 683 yards, 5.8 YPT

Bell was more successful as a receiver, although he scored only two TDs (as opposed to five TDs for the Blount/White/Lewis) as a pass catcher. No question Bell is an elite receiver, but I am curious to see if White is almost as good in 2017 based on his progression.

Touchdown Percentage

To avoid small sample sizes, this will be for Bell's entire career with the Steelers and White/Lewis/Blount's entire career with the Patriots. This actually favors Bell, as I can see Blount's 2016 season was an anomaly. This is touchdowns / total number of touches (passing targets plus rushing attempts). The number of touches are comparable.

Bell: 1199 touches, 31 TDs, 2.59%
Blount/White/Lewis: 1094 touches, 45 TDs, 4.11%

Cost

Bell will now cost $12M in 2017 for the Steelers and perhaps more if they want to extend him.

Lewis is at about $1.5M; White's "big extension" put him at $4M, and Blount was making generously $1.5M the last few seasons. Total cost is about $7M. The Patriots have since moved on from Blount and brought on both Gillisee and Burkhead, and they are still well under that $12M mark.

I guarantee you if we had originally drafted Bell you wouldn't feel that way. It's kinda like us having Gronk would you rather him or two TE's of Bennetts caliber?? Bell is the Gronk of RB's when he on he's unstoppable but like our Gronk the knock on him is injuries.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Attrition rate is so high it's a negative to me to have the Bell model.

When he goes down, you're screwed vs having specialized backs you can easily replace them as needed

It's great to have someone like Bell, but you always need to have backups because it's the NFL and players get hurt.

It's like saying - would you rather have someone with Gronk's skill set, or have a pass catching TE specialist and a run blocking TE specialist? All things being equal, of course you want the complete player, the queen of the chess board. Your play call has less of a chance of being telegraphed that way and you can create huge mismatches. But you need to build your team with the situational options knowing that the queens of the chessboard get hurt, and there are only so many of them, so you need to mix/match the backups to replace the player.

The overall question is how much of the payroll should these guys take up. I don't think Bell is worth as much as he's being paid.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Running on 1st And 10

It's pretty tough to come up with splits on every down and distance, but I think that 1st and 10 is a pretty good barometer of how a RBs production, as typically teams run similar formations. Here are the 2016 numbers.

Bell (16 game projection): 178 attempts, 808 yards, 4.5 YPA
Blount/White/Lewis: 190 attempts, 811 yards, 4.3 YPA

Not a very big difference here.

This might be a bit deceptive, as having Blount in the backfield screams "run," while Bell does not. That actually makes the Blount numbers more impressive.

But note that the difference between 4.5 and 4.3 is very significant - last year that could potentially (depends on the next decimal) have dropped your team from 6th best to 16th.

Buffalo was a clear outlier last year on yard per rush attempt - their 5.3 yards was way ahead of the second place Cleveland's 4.9. Let's hope that some of that was due to Mike Gillislee!

Are RBs that much more likely to get injured than other skill players? Seems plausible given the beating they take, but some of them seem remarkably durable.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I guarantee you if we had originally drafted Bell you wouldn't feel that way. It's kinda like us having Gronk would you rather him or two TE's of Bennetts caliber?? Bell is the Gronk of RB's when he on he's unstoppable but like our Gronk the knock on him is injuries.

I think there is a large degree of overhype on having a stud, all-around terrific running back in the mold of Bell or McCoy. These guys are very good, but they don't bring the same type of versatility on every play as a guy like Gronkowski. With Gronkowski, on every play he causes matchup problems as a pass catcher or a blocker, and on playaction, teams need to recognize his dual threat ability. Bell is also versatile, but what I was trying to demonstrate in my analysis, is that his versatility does not necessarily make every play more difficult to defend. Rather, it means you have to account for him on every play, but his role as either a great running back or great pass catcher is pretty well limited to the design of the play. There is no evidence to show he is great out of playaction, for example, or other types of disguises (in fact, Pittsburgh was among the worst teams in the NFL on playaction.) I'm not saying there aren't some big benefits to having Bell, and once again, I think he is a great running back. I do believe there is a reason, though, why there is often no correlation between an offense's overall production and the strength of its best running back, whereas that's not the case with other positions. I certainly won't be trying to prove that Antonio Brown is overpaid or that his impact is overestimated.

Here is what the Steelers look like in 2015 and 2016:

2015-16 Steelers

With Bell, 18 games, 411 points, 22.9 ppg
Without Bell, 14 games, 411 points, 29,4 ppg

The Steelers are averaging almost a full TD per game more without him!

I should change my thread title to "Le'Veon Bell: The Most Misused Player in the NFL"

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

As long as he doesn't get hurt in the playoffs, he's pretty awesome

Hurt in the playoffs? He wasn't hurt in the playoffs, I checked the injury report. His name wasn't listed

 

[Doctor DDS]

I've yet to see a direct correlation between a highly paid great RB and sustained offensive success since the "Polian rule changes". If the Pats were running Bell 25+ times a game regardless of opponent instead of leaving it in the hands of Brady I would be less confident in their ability to score than I am now. I am not opposed to better quality at that position but with the increased cost and per game carry expectations I think the offense would regress.

 

[Gwedd]

And here's the other side of the coin: Ity doesn't matter how great a running back you have if your O-Line sucks.

If the line can't open up holes for the RB, if they can't block the defense, and especially if they can't disguise their blovking scheme(s), then no amount of skills in a running back will get youinto a winning season, let alone into the payoffs.

Football is a team game and although there are great (and necessary ) skill players, still and all if the Offense isn't gelling, then the points will be hard to come by.

Just my 2-cent's worth and nothing more.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

And here's the other side of the coin: Ity doesn't matter how great a running back you have if your O-Line sucks.

If the line can't open up holes for the RB, if they can't block the defense, and especially if they can't disguise their blovking scheme(s), then no amount of skills in a running back will get youinto a winning season, let alone into the payoffs.

Football is a team game and although there are great (and necessary ) skill players, still and all if the Offense isn't gelling, then the points will be hard to come by.

Just my 2-cent's worth and nothing more.

That's why I think all the hype about the Cowboys is overrated as well.
You cannot evaluate a team from it's previous year.
Film, film, film...
It's all just talk.

Or as Edelman says, "It's just stupid"

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

Hurt in the playoffs? He wasn't hurt in the playoffs, I checked the injury report. His name wasn't listed

Did you check the "excuse" list?

 

[patsinthesnow]

Overrated runner, incredible receiver. That OL made run down Deangelo Williams look legit in his two seasons there (4.2 ypc) and the bigger rushing threat in the playoffs. Bell needs a great OL for that patience/dancing running style to be effective.

To answer your question, the only RB in the entire league that is worth more $ IMO than a Gillislee/White, Blount/Lewis, Ridley/Vereen type combo would David Johnson. To be an elite runner & an elite receiver is too rare.

Also I agree to @Gwedd's point. A team is probably better off investing in two very good guards & having a main RB on the cheap than the other way around.

 

[Ring 6]

DeAngelo Williams is a good example about how you really can't take a Madden approach to evaluating football players. It's all situational.

I'd never argue that Bell is overall the inferior player to DeAngelo, but I would argue that against us Bell is *significantly* worse. I groaned when Bell went down because I knew DeAngelo was going to come in and run all over us.

Williams had 14 carries for 34 yards. One of them was 15 meaning he gained 19 yards on 13 carries besides that one.
I don't think you groan was needed and I know he didn't run all over us.

 

[ausbacker]

Overrated runner, incredible receiver. That OL made run down Deangelo Williams look legit in his two seasons there (4.2 ypc) and the bigger rushing threat in the playoffs. Bell needs a great OL for that patience/dancing running style to be effective.

To answer your question, the only RB in the entire league that is worth more $ IMO than a Gillislee/White, Blount/Lewis, Ridley/Vereen type combo would David Johnson. To be an elite runner & an elite receiver is too rare.

Also I agree to @Gwedd's point. A team is probably better off investing in two very good guards & having a main RB on the cheap than the other way around.

IMO, Bell's the epitome of fantasy football. He's a nice player and puts up good numbers but as you state, he's no David Johnson, who like you, I believe is worth the numbers. That kid can do everything.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I think Gillesie does similar for us that Bell would in this system with our o line.
Cept Mike would man up and play hurt.

 

[Pats1989]

He turtled. Never convince me otherwise.

Tough to say if he turtled. Let's face it though: Steelers weren't winning that game with prime Bradshaw, Harris, Blont, Swann, Ham, Greene etc.

I never felt that game would be in jeopardy. That includes before the game started.