Is the assertion that Belichick's drafts have been poor accurate?

[hlywoodjp]

Guess you didn't watch the game against San Diego where Gates was held to 1 reception? Or the game against Dallas where Witten was pretty much a non--factor.

If you watched Chung, you'd see that he's been getting BETTER. Also, judging a Safety only by his "passes defensed" is as stupid as claiming that having a huge number of tackles makes a player awesome..

Sure did, according to nfl.com it was zero receptions. I also watched Gates miss the next 3 games. He's been hurt. I don't think you can use that as evidence of all that much.

I was attempting to get some gauge on his ability to make a play on the ball in pass coverage. Obviously it means very little in the grand scheme of things. I would agree that he is improving and that he has a high ceiling. Just haven't seen enough to call him above average yet. He really is the least of their problems, so I shouldn't have even brought it up.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Too many people just look at the Patriots drafts and decide that there have been too many misses without comparing it to the other 31 teams. Here is someone who looked at all 32.

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

 

[Deus Irae]

Too many people just look at the Patriots drafts and decide that there have been too many misses without comparing it to the other 31 teams. Here is someone who looked at all 32.

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

Given that most people are talking about recent drafts, that article is useless.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Given that most people are talking about recent drafts, that article is useless.

Whenever the facts don't jive with your contrarian world view the information is summarily dismissed as useless...

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Yeah.... for the amount of picks we've had, look at what we've added on Defense:


1 really good player (Jerod Mayo)

1 Good player (Pat Chung)

a couple of question marks that havent proven they can play at a high level consistently (McCourty, Spikes)


and a bunch of BUSTS! (Crable, Butler, Wheatley, Brace, McKenzie, Wilhite, soon Cunningham)

 

[Gumby]

Too many people just look at the Patriots drafts and decide that there have been too many misses without comparing it to the other 31 teams. Here is someone who looked at all 32.

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

love the reference.

surprised by the squeelers moderate B grade.

gotta good laugh at the jesters. :singing:

"Bonus note: The Jets drafted only five interior offensive linemen in the decade, which is exceptionally low"

:bricks:

One thing I would note is that teams are graded on how well guys they picked are doing; and not necessarily on how well they continued to utilize (pay for) or develop those guys. i.e. Asante Samuel - we got a plus for him; but he doesnt play for Pats anymore. Likewise some guy a team drafts who doesnt fit the scheme or pans out; but has success elsewhere after being cut - is still a credit.

So good information; but as in all these cases; it aint the whole story.

All in all though; imo; you have to say that complaing about BBs drafting is cherrypicking problems. But of course - that is what being on a message board is all about. The only board that shouldn't be out there cherry-picking problems is the 18-0 team's. :violent:

 

[IllegalContact]

it used to be that BB used to make deals and draft players to fill needs (daniel graham, ty warren) as much as take advantage of having the trades out of the first round work out quite well (kyle boller for eugene wilson and vince wilfork)

he no longer moves up to get the guy he wants and his perpetual trading out of the first round does not yield anything of value (clay matthews basically for rob gronkowski straight up)

what is proven that you could argue that BB has only missed on one 1st rounder (maroney) and the rest have contributed....they may not have been the best deals, but still contributed plenty (graham,watson,meriweather....who, by the way is just as good as anyone we have right now......sorry, but I see no great shakes in chung) whereas the 2nd rounder are littered with complete failures even way back (klemm, bethel johnson, marquise hill, chad jackson, butler, brace, cunningham, dowling, vereen.....I know some are early, but you expec something from your 2nd rounders, even as rookies......the pats drafted 2 of them and got next to nothing from either one in what was supposed to and is showing to be a very strong 2nd round)

I think its fair to say that there have been plenty of reasonable mock drafts by fans on this board that would have worked out much better for the pats than what has actually been drafted.......

 

[mcsully]

Like others, I'm not sure I agree with the article. I'm not going to rip the entire article but here's two points that need to be stated

1. Out of the 7 players we "hit" on, two are special teams players. McCourty has taken a huge step back, Hernandez and Chung are banged up a lot but my biggest issue is non are considered top 5 players in their position (well maybe Mayo but I can name 5 MLB's, I rather have them him). Where Pittsburgh has Woodley and Timmons.. Woodley is one of the best OLB in football, Mendhall is a top 7 or 8 back in football.. and they switched from a running team to a passing team by addings Sanders and Wallace.. They adapted and have players who can do this, we don't


2. Since this 2006, the Pats haven't won a SB.. I believe Pittsburgh has won 2. They have a core of players from the early 2000's and have supplemented them with younger players (wallace, sanders, mendhall, woodley, timmons).. We haven't done that.. We cut the cord with the Vrabels, Seymours and Warrens and now depend on two many young players

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Damn, I had high hopes for Taylor Price, but I guess he's on the looong list of 3rd rd BUSTS recently.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Damn, I had high hopes for Taylor Price, but I guess he's on the looong list of 3rd rd BUSTS recently.

And you felt the need to resurrect a two-month-old thread just for this? Seriously?

 

[DarrylS]

All this banter is interesting, but someone needs to look at the draft history of the AFC in total, to see if this is a phenomenon unique to the Patriots or something that happens league wide.

Have always contended that the draft is a crap shoot... people look to the Steelers as some hallmark we should emulate.. here is their draft history in the second round for the past 6 years..

2011.. Marcus Gilbert..OT currently starts for the Steelers
2010.. Jason Worilds.. playing ok, but seems to be a work in progress
2009.. no second round pick
2008.. Limus Sweed... has been waived
2007.. Lamar Woodley.. great pick
2006.. no second round pick

Miami's vaunted 2nd round picks..

2011...Daniel Thomas RB.. looks like a good pick
2010..Koa Missa. LB.. work in progress
2009..Pat White. QB... not in the game
2008..Phillip Merling.. not in the game
2007.. John Beck. QB...traded to the Redskins
Samson Satele.. C.. good pick
2006..no pick
Chad Henne
2007..

You can do this will all of the teams in the AFC and results may be comparable. People need to view this longitudinally.. there are as many hits as misses.

 

[patsinthesnow]

He drafted an All-Pro TE, who is breaking records, and is the most complete TE the league has seen.

He drafted another stud TE, who is 4th in the league in catches, 6th in yards, and T-4th in TDs. This is with all missing a couple of games.

He got Gronkowski and Hernandez for the equivalent of the 36th overall pick on the draft value chart.


Attack the defensive picks all you want, if he doesn't choose these two TEs, we are screwed.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Too many people just look at the Patriots drafts and decide that there have been too many misses without comparing it to the other 31 teams. Here is someone who looked at all 32.

Decade in the making: the ultimate NFL draft grades | Cold Hard Football Facts

Wow! That surprises the heck out of me. I heard several talking heads yesterday announce that the Patriots "have the worst defense in the NFL", including Deion Sanders, who knows something about defense. It's hard to connect that the elite drafting team has assembled the talent to have the worst defense. Very odd, if you think about it.

 

[Sparetire]

He drafted an All-Pro TE, who is breaking records, and is the most complete TE the league has seen.

He drafted another stud TE, who is 4th in the league in catches, 6th in yards, and T-4th in TDs. This is with all missing a couple of games.

He got Gronkowski and Hernandez for the equivalent of the 36th overall pick on the draft value chart.


Attack the defensive picks all you want, if he doesn't choose these two TEs, we are screwed.

when you draft TE's every time you have the chance in a period of time of 12 years you must get a hit sometimes, this year was BB's year in TE's area, but in other areas our drafting sucks.

 

[DarrylS]

when you draft TE's every time you have the chance in a period of time of 12 years you must get a hit sometimes, this year was BB's year in TE's area, but in other areas our drafting sucks.

As does every others team, look around it is amazing.. or see above.

 

[patsinthesnow]

when you draft TE's every time you have the chance in a period of time of 12 years you must get a hit sometimes, this year was BB's year in TE's area, but in other areas our drafting sucks.

A hit?!?! Two Stud TEs that would be a top 5 and a top 15 pick in a redraft of the 2010 draft?


That was a jackpot.

 

[Don_the_patfan]

Here is something for those of you who think BB has been doing a great job at drafting:

From 2006-2010, the Pats had 50 draft picks. Only 14 of those players are on the active roster today, and eight of that 15 were drafted in 2010

And if you want to ignore that l recommend looking up Sergio Brown, Sterling Moore, Tracy White, Slater, Philip Adams etc. Love BB but this case is closed.

P.S. Ron Brace and Cunningham are on Deck.

 

[SyN65]

OMFG. I just spent 30 mins typing up a post explaining exactly WHY the Pats have been terrible at drafting looking at each pick but accidentally closed the tab when switching tabs. :|

But yeah, they've been awful. If you don't believe this you're crazy, like you need to be institutionalized crazy. People are focusing way too much on the hits rather than the countless misses. Instead of typing a long pick by pick post I'll post the cliff notes:

Fun fact #1: Since 2004 the Patriots have drafted 14 players in the secondary, THREE remain with the team. (Chung/McCourty and Malcolm Williams [I think])

Furthermore, of those 3 that are on the team, Chung/McCourty are both incredibly AVERAGE.

Fun fact #2: Since 2004, the Patriots have drafted 6 WR, TWO remain with the team. (Slater/Edleman) Both do not contribute on offense but are decent players.

Fun fact #3: Since 2004, the Patriots haven't drafted one effective pass rusher. Not one!

Conclusion: The Patriots simply can not evaluate WR's, ANYONE in the secondary, or pass rushers effectively. This is undeniable. You can't argue against FACTS.

Have the Patriots come away with some great players? Yes. But you can't focus on a couple good players when you have 10 picks a year. The reason the Patriots are where they are now (defensively speaking) is because they haven't been refilling talent that has been leaving this team.

 

[Bostonian1962]

OMFG. I just spent 30 mins typing up a post explaining exactly WHY the Pats have been terrible at drafting looking at each pick but accidentally closed the tab when switching tabs. :|

But yeah, they've been awful. If you don't believe this you're crazy, like you need to be institutionalized crazy. People are focusing way too much on the hits rather than the countless misses. Instead of typing a long pick by pick post I'll post the cliff notes:

Fun fact #1: Since 2004 the Patriots have drafted 14 players in the secondary, THREE remain with the team. (Chung/McCourty and Malcolm Williams [I think])

Furthermore, of those 3 that are on the team, Chung/McCourty are both incredibly AVERAGE.

Fun fact #2: Since 2004, the Patriots have drafted 6 WR, TWO remain with the team. (Slater/Edleman) Both do not contribute on offense but are decent players.

Fun fact #3: Since 2004, the Patriots haven't drafted one effective pass rusher. Not one!

Conclusion: The Patriots simply can not evaluate WR's, ANYONE in the secondary, or pass rushers effectively. This is undeniable. You can't argue against FACTS.

Have the Patriots come away with some great players? Yes. But you can't focus on a couple good players when you have 10 picks a year. The reason the Patriots are where they are now (defensively speaking) is because they haven't been refilling talent that has been leaving this team.

It's impossible to argue against you on this. I will say this, if this past draft turns out decently, and the year before surely was an excellent draft, then maybe they have figured this thing out. Or, should I say, almost figured this thing out, because their lack of drafting a pass rusher that can play at a high level is mind boggling every year. And, their repeated misses on DBs is impossible to figure out given BB is such a great defensive mind.

 

[jmt57]

Have the Patriots come away with some great players? Yes. But you can't focus on a couple good players when you have 10 picks a year. The reason the Patriots are where they are now (defensively speaking) is because they haven't been refilling talent that has been leaving this team.

I'm not denying that what you posted is not true, but you are ignoring a couple of primary points from the article. First of all, if a team's strategy is to trade down and acquire additional picks then the most likely result is that they will indeed have a higher percentage, and higher total number of bad picks or busts - simply because (a) they are drafting lower, (b) more picks equals more busts, and (c) as DarrylS pointed out, nobody hits on 100% of their picks. What is the expected number of draft picks that should pan out per year? What is the expected number of players that should be on a team after X number of years? Without knowing what those numbers are, the stats you compiled are meaningless. The number of picks or percentage of picks that works out does not matter; it is the number of picks that do work out that is important.