Interesting pre draft piece from Bedard

[MoLewisrocks]

Projecting the Year 1 NFL Rookie Allocations

The salary cap has remained virtually level from 2011 to 2012, so you would presume the 2012 draftees will make about the same or just slightly more than 2011 draft picks did.

2011 NFL Rookie Signings & Contracts

Last year Cam Newton signed a 4-year deal for $22 million.

#17 pick Nate Solder's 4-year deal was for $8.5 million, with a $4.7 million signing bonus. His 2011 cap number was $1,552,500.

The #27 pick was CB Jimmy Smith with the Ravens; his 4-year deal was for $7,461,000

The #31 pick was DE Cameron Heyward; his 4-year deal was for $6.7 million.



Looking at a mid first round pick like Solder and what his cap figure is, to me first round picks have gone from a huge financial/cap risk to a great financial/cap value.

Aside from the potential terms and structure the $$ haven't changed dramatically at the bottom of the first and beyond. It's really the top 10 or 15 who have been impacted. Here is McCourty's deal from 2010 as the 27th drafted player:

Signed a five-year, $10 million contract with a possible 5th year incentive that could boost his salary by $3.2M. Jimmy Smith has a similar incentive in that if the team exercises the option to retain him through year 5 it will do so at the 2013 franchise tag rate for corners. So in the end he might make a couple of million more than the $13M McCourty may make...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Belichick once drafted a TE in the fourth round (Garrett Mills) because he wanted him on the practice squad, and then got publicly upset when Mills was claimed on waivers. That is how much Belichick has loved collecting TEs.

That's not quite what happened. Mills got injured in 2006, and ended up on IR. There was no room at the inn in 2007, so he tried to get him to the PS only to have the Vikings claim him off waivers.

OTOH, after David Thomas' foot injury, he was so eager to get Thomas back on the field that he activated him off PUP, holding a roster spot for him, only for Thomas to get injured in his first game back.

Gronk and Hernandez were drafted not because Belichick suddenly woke up the day after the 2009 season ended and went "TEs are going to be big this year! Let's draft two!" but because that was the year injury and character concerns pushed two very talented TEs down the board to where the Pats were happy to draft them.

And he had also made a complete hash of the TE position the year before, wasting a draft pick on Alex Smith, and trading away David Thomas. He was left with two TEs, one of whom was a free agent, and the other a player Brady didn't trust at all.

Further emphasizing that the Pats were targeting value, there was a run on running backs right after Vereen at 56. (Leshoure at 57, Thomas at 62, Murray at 71) Ridley got drafted at 73 because he was one of those sleepers the Pats identify; every draft "expert" felt was a reach that high.

That's one thing that I've always wondered—it's strange how often there's a run on a position right after the Patriots make a pick. I just wonder if it's disproportionately high.

 

[patfanken]

I have to say this about Bedard. While I don't always agree with him, NO one writes as many thought provoking pieces as he does. We are very lucky to have him. Like Reiss he generally sticks to the facts he knows and minimizes his speculations. But its pieces like this that sets him above the rest. Stuff that has some meat on it.

BTW - I ready today that statistical types at Harvard did an alternative draft valuation chart that supposedly reflects more of how the players who were picked at certain spots worked out. I have to run now so maybe someone can dig it up, or I'll do it later

 

[Aßßynormal]

I have to say this about Bedard. While I don't always agree with him, NO one writes as many thought provoking pieces as he does. We are very lucky to have him. Like Reiss he generally sticks to the facts he knows and minimizes his speculations. But its pieces like this that sets him above the rest. Stuff that has some meat on it.

BTW - I ready today that statistical types at Harvard did an alternative draft valuation chart that supposedly reflects more of how the players who were picked at certain spots worked out. I have to run now so maybe someone can dig it up, or I'll do it later

This? :
Offered for Consideration: Yet Another Theory of Draft Pick Value | Fantasy Douche

 

[unoriginal]

That's not quite what happened. Mills got injured in 2006, and ended up on IR. There was no room at the inn in 2007, so he tried to get him to the PS only to have the Vikings claim him off waivers.

You're right, got 2006 and 2007 mixed up. If I am now remembering right, they did carry him as the fourth TE the first nine games that year, then he got IR'd right when it seemed they needed a bunch of bodies in the defensive backfield.

That's one thing that I've always wondered—it's strange how often there's a run on a position right after the Patriots make a pick. I just wonder if it's disproportionately high.

It's likely gotten to the point where other teams view the Patriots drafting a position as a sign it's time to take whatever value is there. That ends up creating a run where the position gets overdrafted.

 

[captain stone]

If I may paraphrase BB here.... When was the last time Charlie Casserly was right about anything?

Mario Williams?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

my favorite quote from the article:

"They saw a thin Patriots team take players off the street and come just a few plays short of winning a fourth Super Bowl title under Belichick...One more dynamic playmaker - in the front or back of the defense - could put the Patriots over the top."

When I think of what Belichick accomplishes with paper clips and stray pieces of twine holding things together around Brady, I sometimes wonder what he could do with a couple of vises and some stout rope.

 

[captain stone]

If that's the case, then Bill the HC should have a long, hard talk w/ Bill the GM.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Regarding the impact of the rookie wage scale on the draft value process. Some insight on the current thinking from AFC personnel sources and also Casserly, Pioli, Dimetroff and Lombardi (as it relates to Belichick). At the end of the day while the $$$ has come down to earth the value of picks remains what it has always been, the picks themselves. So you still don't make the trade unless the player is worth the trade off. The money just makes it a little easier calculation if you are so inclined.

Rookie cap could mean more draft trades - The Boston Globe

I think the money makes it easier for Bill to move around the board. Bil is reluctant to bring in rookies who will earn more or the same as the leaders of the same position. In theory ... Bill can move up a bit higher in a round now without upsetting the wage scale of the unit where they fit on the Patriots.

 

[Huckleberry1]

If that's the case, then Bill the HC should have a long, hard talk w/ Bill the GM.

Feel free to name the GM who has accomplished more since he took over? We'll be waiting, be sure to list the accomplishments that put them above him. If you can't then be sure to acknowledge how lame your point is and how wrong you are.

 

[BTTA]

When I think of what Belichick accomplishes with paper clips and stray pieces of twine holding things together around Brady, I sometimes wonder what he could do with a couple of vises and some stout rope.

The Pats have got as many vises and as much stout rope as most teams. We just overlook it because we have developed an entitlement mentality about having excellence at every position. And that's fine, because it is the unavoidable outcome of consistent winning.

 

[captain stone]

Feel free to name the GM who has accomplished more since he took over? We'll be waiting, be sure to list the accomplishments that put them above him. If you can't then be sure to acknowledge how lame your point is and how wrong you are.

How silly of me to forget that Bill has never been wrong about anything, ever.

 

[Sciz]

How silly of me to forget that Bill has never been wrong about anything, ever.

It's a good thing we don't have to watch you post about baseball on here, because it seems like you'd get mad any time a player didn't hit 1.000.

 

[Joker]

It's a good thing we don't have to watch you post about baseball on here, because it seems like you'd get mad any time a player didn't hit 1.000.

well....the Sox just traded for a player hitting .046...and gave up a pitcher and a PTBNL...I think it's a good thing NO ONE is posting about the Red Sox right about now...

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

well....the Sox just traded for a player hitting .046...and gave up a pitcher and a PTBNL...I think it's a good thing NO ONE is posting about the Red Sox right about now...

After last night, I may have to retire my red sox baseball cap and stick withthe Patriots cap (even if it's out of gaming season).

 

[Off The Grid]

After last night, I may have to retire my red sox baseball cap and stick withthe Patriots cap (even if it's out of gaming season).

My friends...It's Time To Embrace The Horror.



We need to go Scorched Earth on the Sox...and start from Scratch.

 

[DarrylS]

After last night, I may have to retire my red sox baseball cap and stick withthe Patriots cap (even if it's out of gaming season).

What I love about football is that every game is a must win, what I hate about baseball is that it is ok to lose..... there are too many tommorrows.

That is why I no longer watch it..