If You Called a Run On First Down, You're Screwed

[raduray]

You Called A Run On First Down. You’re Already Screwed.

 

[Deus Irae]

fivethirtyeight.com

Stopped reading right there

 

[DropKickFlutie]

It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

.

 

[maust]

It's based on EPV, another horse dung stat championed by the worldwide leader in sports horse dung and the article is from the leaders in abusing horse dung stats. Now there's a helluva combo...if you're making fertilizer

 

[raduray]

Well, so far this hold true for the Colts' effort today.

 

[maust]

It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

.

Actually that is exactly what it takes into account, it just doesn't take the opposing D's strengths & weaknesses into account, rendering it useless

 

[Hyped]

Tl;dr version: Throwing is more effective on 1st/2nd downs and running is more effective on 3rd down.

My take: No ****, Sherlock.....

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Tl;dr version: Throwing is more effective on 1st/2nd downs and running is more effective on 3rd down.

My take: No ****, Sherlock.....

And yet coaches don’t do that.

 

[Hyped]

And yet coaches don’t do that.

I don't advocate doing it as a primary means to move the chains. I advocate playing conservatively and mixing it in unpredictably. It primarily works because it is unpredictable, IMO. Nothing scientific about my opinion though.

 

[Deus Irae]

It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

.

Absolutely. It also doesn't take into account any number of other contextual items that would potentially make a huge difference in the outcome. That's one of the reasons 538 is basically useless.