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If You Called a Run On First Down, You're Screwed

Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by raduray, Jan 12, 2019.

  1. raduray

    raduray PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    • Useful Useful x 1

  2. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Stopped reading right there
     
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  3. DropKickFlutie

    DropKickFlutie 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

    .
     
  4. maust1013

    maust1013 In the Starting Line-Up

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    It's based on EPV, another horse dung stat championed by the worldwide leader in sports horse dung and the article is from the leaders in abusing horse dung stats. Now there's a helluva combo...if you're making fertilizer
     
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    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  5. raduray

    raduray PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, so far this hold true for the Colts' effort today.
     
  6. maust1013

    maust1013 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Actually that is exactly what it takes into account, it just doesn't take the opposing D's strengths & weaknesses into account, rendering it useless
     
  7. Hyped

    Hyped PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Tl;dr version: Throwing is more effective on 1st/2nd downs and running is more effective on 3rd down.

    My take: No ****, Sherlock.....
     
  8. QuantumMechanic

    QuantumMechanic Burn it all down! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And yet coaches don’t do that.
     
  9. Hyped

    Hyped PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't advocate doing it as a primary means to move the chains. I advocate playing conservatively and mixing it in unpredictably. It primarily works because it is unpredictable, IMO. Nothing scientific about my opinion though.
     
  10. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Absolutely. It also doesn't take into account any number of other contextual items that would potentially make a huge difference in the outcome. That's one of the reasons 538 is basically useless.
     

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