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If You Called a Run On First Down, You're Screwed

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DropKickFlutie

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

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maust1013

Just Another Guy
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It's based on EPV, another horse dung stat championed by the worldwide leader in sports horse dung and the article is from the leaders in abusing horse dung stats. Now there's a helluva combo...if you're making fertilizer
 
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maust1013

Just Another Guy
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It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

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Actually that is exactly what it takes into account, it just doesn't take the opposing D's strengths & weaknesses into account, rendering it useless
 

Hyped

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Tl;dr version: Throwing is more effective on 1st/2nd downs and running is more effective on 3rd down.

My take: No ****, Sherlock.....
 

Hyped

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And yet coaches don’t do that.

I don't advocate doing it as a primary means to move the chains. I advocate playing conservatively and mixing it in unpredictably. It primarily works because it is unpredictable, IMO. Nothing scientific about my opinion though.
 

Deus Irae

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It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

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Absolutely. It also doesn't take into account any number of other contextual items that would potentially make a huge difference in the outcome. That's one of the reasons 538 is basically useless.
 

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