If You Called a Run On First Down, You're Screwed

You Called A Run On First Down. You’re Already Screwed.

 

Stopped reading right there

 

It doesn't take into account situation, yardage line, etc so is an example of how stats can be misused.

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It's based on EPV, another horse dung stat championed by the worldwide leader in sports horse dung and the article is from the leaders in abusing horse dung stats. Now there's a helluva combo...if you're making fertilizer

 

Well, so far this hold true for the Colts' effort today.

 

Actually that is exactly what it takes into account, it just doesn't take the opposing D's strengths & weaknesses into account, rendering it useless

 

Tl;dr version: Throwing is more effective on 1st/2nd downs and running is more effective on 3rd down.

My take: No ****, Sherlock.....

 

And yet coaches don’t do that.

 

I don't advocate doing it as a primary means to move the chains. I advocate playing conservatively and mixing it in unpredictably. It primarily works because it is unpredictable, IMO. Nothing scientific about my opinion though.

 

Absolutely. It also doesn't take into account any number of other contextual items that would potentially make a huge difference in the outcome. That's one of the reasons 538 is basically useless.