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If We Pick At 15

2021 Patriots Season:
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Pick Results: MIA: 0% at NE: 0%

Sun
Sep 12th

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jdlboot14

Practice Squad Player
I'd bet the farm that #15 will be on defense - I initially thought EDGE or LB, but now I'm certain it'll be best available CB.

The DL and LB corp have been incredibly re-stocked in FA, and the only uncertainty is the future of the lock down corner.
Whispers from the Gilmore situation makes me believe he's still not sure about this year, let alone his future.
 

jah

Official PatsFans Gamer
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I'd bet the farm that #15 will be on defense - I initially thought EDGE or LB, but now I'm certain it'll be best available CB.

The DL and LB corp have been incredibly re-stocked in FA, and the only uncertainty is the future of the lock down corner.
Whispers from the Gilmore situation makes me believe he's still not sure about this year, let alone his future.
You really think we're set at LB? I think it's our weakest position that isn't QB. Literally no depth of significance behind Hightower. Some like McMillan but I don't think a minimum contract player is someone you should put your confidence in to fill a pseudo-starting role.

I think people keep conflating EDGE with LB, which to an extent is because our team has been moving toward merging the roles. All the sites list Judon and KVN as LB, implying they play the same position as Hightower and Bentley which just isn't true. In terms of skillsets, we sorely lack LB who can cover. We've got run stoppers, we've got pass rushers, but I don't even know if I trust Hightower in coverage at this point.

I could absolutely see us going CB though. Would not be surprised by a WR either; there are only 3 or 4 players at the position on our roster right now who probably deserve to make the 53, and none of them are a true #1 (which we don't necessarily need, but it would be foolish not to at least passively look for one).

Another thing I thought of after posting this originally was that if we're justifying a first round CB because Gilmore might be gone soon, wouldn't that also justify looking to replace Hightower? Especially when we have less depth at Hightower's position right now than Gilmore's.
 

Sicilian

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Need is definitely a factor when talking about potential draft picks, the problem is there are a lot more positions that can be qualified as "needs" when you consider most draft pick impacts won't happen fully until year 2. So you don't just look at what the Patriots need in 2021, you look at players who are potentially gone for 2022. CB, S, LB, RB, OT all would fit that category, even if we like the group we have for this year. I don't expect a RB as high as 15, but wouldn't be surprised at any of the others I listed if a good player falls to 15.
 

betterthanthealternative

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You really think we're set at LB? I think it's our weakest position that isn't QB. Literally no depth of significance behind Hightower. Some like McMillan but I don't think a minimum contract player is someone you should put your confidence in to fill a pseudo-starting role.

I think people keep conflating EDGE with LB, which to an extent is because our team has been moving toward merging the roles. All the sites list Judon and KVN as LB, implying they play the same position as Hightower and Bentley which just isn't true. In terms of skillsets, we sorely lack LB who can cover. We've got run stoppers, we've got pass rushers, but I don't even know if I trust Hightower in coverage at this point.

I could absolutely see us going CB though. Would not be surprised by a WR either; there are only 3 or 4 players at the position on our roster right now who probably deserve to make the 53, and none of them are a true #1 (which we don't necessarily need, but it would be foolish not to at least passively look for one).

Another thing I thought of after posting this originally was that if we're justifying a first round CB because Gilmore might be gone soon, wouldn't that also justify looking to replace Hightower? Especially when we have less depth at Hightower's position right now than Gilmore's.

In general I agree that finding Hightower's replacement would be a great use of draft picks this year.

But the implication you say is there, just isn't. People know the difference between OLB and ILB, and that OLB is also referred to as "edge." They also know the same for some players listed as DE.
 

jah

Official PatsFans Gamer
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In general I agree that finding Hightower's replacement would be a great use of draft picks this year.

But the implication you say is there, just isn't. People know the difference between OLB and ILB, and that OLB is also referred to as "edge." They also know the same for some players listed as DE.
I don't see how you can come to the conclusion that we meaningfully addressed the LB position this offseason already unless you're counting Judon and KVN, which requires that implication to be true.
 

mgteich

PatsFans.com Veteran
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You really think we're set at LB? I think it's our weakest position that isn't QB. Literally no depth of significance behind Hightower. Some like McMillan but I don't think a minimum contract player is someone you should put your confidence in to fill a pseudo-starting role.

I think people keep conflating EDGE with LB, which to an extent is because our team has been moving toward merging the roles. All the sites list Judon and KVN as LB, implying they play the same position as Hightower and Bentley which just isn't true. In terms of skillsets, we sorely lack LB who can cover. We've got run stoppers, we've got pass rushers, but I don't even know if I trust Hightower in coverage at this point.

I could absolutely see us going CB though. Would not be surprised by a WR either; there are only 3 or 4 players at the position on our roster right now who probably deserve to make the 53, and none of them are a true #1 (which we don't necessarily need, but it would be foolish not to at least passively look for one).

Another thing I thought of after posting this originally was that if we're justifying a first round CB because Gilmore might be gone soon, wouldn't that also justify looking to replace Hightower? Especially when we have less depth at Hightower's position right now than Gilmore's.
We have Van Noy and Hightower inside.
========
However, I agree that ILB is up there with CB and OT as top draft needs.
 

jah

Official PatsFans Gamer
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We have Van Noy and Hightower inside.
========
However, I agree that ILB is up there with CB and OT as top draft needs.
The versatility of Van Noy could allow us to get by with our current group of players if everyone stays healthy, but he takes the majority of his snaps on the edge because he's better there. I'll at least admit that KVN shouldn't be completely ignored in the analysis of our ILB situation, which I was previously doing.
 

Addictive

Practice Squad Player
There have been three times when Bill has had a top 15 draft pick and the selections have been
Richard Seymour
Ty Warren (2003)
Jerod Mayo (2008)

That's the evidence of what Bill does with a high pick in round 1.

Now in 2021 the DL selections don't necessarily merit a top 15 pick. So what might he do? Cornerback for sure but only if the top two haven't already been selected. Dallas seems to be the team who would take a top CB. Parsons at LB is a blue chip type of player and he could go any time from 7-17.

2003 was a mostly defensive led top 15.
2008 was again mostly defensive led in top 15 but not a particularly strong draft at the top.

How have times changed in 13 years since drafting at this high position? Would Bill target a Heisman winning WR if he really thought this was the best guy?
 

betterthanthealternative

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I don't see how you can come to the conclusion that we meaningfully addressed the LB position this offseason already unless you're counting Judon and KVN, which requires that implication to be true.
I do think it was addressed in the off season, with Hightower coming back and Judon and KVN added, plus the expected second year leap for last year's rookies, who didn't get a normal opportunity.

With all that going for them, the only thing really missing looking out to 22 and 23 is a difference-maker to replace HT as he ages or calls it quits. That's a pretty good position to be in. If they fill it in the draft (e.g. Parsons), then LB (inside and outside) is one of the dominant strengths of the team.
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
I'd bet the farm that #15 will be on defense - I initially thought EDGE or LB, but now I'm certain it'll be best available CB.

The DL and LB corp have been incredibly re-stocked in FA, and the only uncertainty is the future of the lock down corner.
Whispers from the Gilmore situation makes me believe he's still not sure about this year, let alone his future.

if horn is there at 15, it is going to be very hard for bb to resist taking him.
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
if horn is there at 15, it is going to be very hard for bb to resist taking him.

Should be hard for anyone to resist taking Horn. Doubt he will be there. Maybe Paye? Hopefully the 5 QBs, the 3 WRs and Pitts, plus a couple of OTs, so that someone falls to us.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
I will be surprised if they trade down. They have a lot of picks and very few holes. I think they will group some to move up, and trade a couple into next years draft. If they do trade down they will be looking to bring multiple picks up. They just don't need as many picks as they have this year.
I can see it happening, but I’m more on the side on trading up or taking BPA. The QB run could leave them high and dry at QB, but will push some great prospects still on the board. That said I would consider trades up Waddle or Paye, but it would be small jumps.
 

mgteich

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Should be hard for anyone to resist taking Horn. Doubt he will be there. Maybe Paye? Hopefully the 5 QBs, the 3 WRs and Pitts, plus a couple of OTs, so that someone falls to us.
Horn or Surtain would be available at 15, or one of the top OT's. As an aside, I presume that Parsons will be gone.
 

One-If-By-Sea

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Horn or Surtain would be available at 15, or one of the top OT's. As an aside, I presume that Parsons will be gone.

I am not a huge Surtain fan. Gilmore and Horn are similar in height, ran a 4.38 and 4.39 forty respectively, and are both Gamecocks. I think Horn alongside Gilmore would be a great pairing for a few years.
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
I am not a huge Surtain fan. Gilmore and Horn are similar in height, ran a 4.38 and 4.39 forty respectively, and are both Gamecocks. I think Horn alongside Gilmore would be a great pairing for a few years.

I could not agree more. A year with Gilmore will do horn a world of good and help horn solve his “too handsy” issues.

The radio guys say the chargers like horn a lot.
 

PScottman

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
I would go with the top pass rusher because they never get out of the top 5.
Similar to WRs there is a love affair in this forum with pass rushers that exceeds the Patriots' value propositions in regards to single skill to draft capital to cap room.

There is particularly not high value placed on single skill players on the defensive side of the ball when the Pats have had a high pick in the first round. Now if this kid is a true five tool player, plays the run as well as rushes the passer as well as has a high football IQ - THEN the possibility rises immensely of selection. But if he's just a pass rusher - what evidence is there of the Patriots historically selecting a single high skill guy in the early first round (especially defensively)?
 

50-yard-line

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I will be surprised if they trade down. They have a lot of picks and very few holes. I think they will group some to move up, and trade a couple into next years draft. If they do trade down they will be looking to bring multiple picks up. They just don't need as many picks as they have this year.
They might do both. If they like, say Paye or Collins, they can probably move down a few places and still get one. Getting into the top 50-75 for a couple of picks would be nice.

They don't need a lot of players (do they ever?) but drafts are for the future for winning teams.
 

Wozzy

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Assuming there's a run on QB's before they pick, I'd be looking at the BPA at 15.

Sewell at OT, Parsons at LB, Barmore at DT, Paye at DE or Horn at CB... there's also the possibility one of Fields, Lance or Jones drops at which point they'll have a decision to make.

If they don't get a QB in the first, I'd move up in the 2nd to take Davis Mills, Kyle Trask or Mond... probably in that order.
 

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