If the Patriots let Brady’s top target walk two seasons in a row…

[Brady6]

The disconnect between us is that you continue to claim that Julian Edelman is suddenly an irreplaceable security blanket from having one good season in 2013 when there were no other options to throw to.

I never said Edelman was irreplaceable; I am sure he can be replaced just as Welker was replaced, I just feel forcing Brady to endure that transition yet again is bad taste. .

How can you look at the stats and see Edelman with 105 receptions and the 2nd leading receiver with 50+ catches less and honestly claim that Brady wasn't obviously relying heavily on Julian Edelman?

Edelman was the only receiver to play in 16 games, had Amendola played in 16 games he would have finished with 72 receptions based on his averages, which would have been about the same as the second leading receiver last season Brandon Lloyd.

To expand on what I said in my last post Tom Brady threw the ball 637 times in 2012 174 of those targets went to Wes Welker, last season he threw the ball 628 times and 151 went to Edelman. The difference in the productivity of the passing game was not Edelman being force-fed the ball. Those 151 targets would have went to the receiver in that role no matter who was healthy and who was not, they had every single year since 2007; it was Brady’s completion ratio being down 3% from the prior year, and his average being down 0.64 yards.

As you have pointed out the rest of the wide receivers did not produce much, so I have mixed feelings why you would advocate against the importance of Edelman. I mean no disrespect but I believe the issue is that you have a hard time believing that Edelman very well could have been a 100 receptions, 1000 yards player but was buried behind Welker, Hernandez and others over the past few years.

Brady was nothing more than a sixth rounder when Bledsoe went down, he seized the moment, and the “only healthy QB” statement was not the reasoning for his success, Edelman did the same thing. We should value that he stepped up when we needed him too, and not use it to disvalue him.

 

[supafly]

I never said Edelman was irreplaceable; I am sure he can be replaced just as Welker was replaced, I just feel forcing Brady to endure that transition yet again is bad taste. .



Edelman was the only receiver to play in 16 games, had Amendola played in 16 games he would have finished with 72 receptions based on his averages, which would have been about the same as the second leading receiver last season Brandon Lloyd.

To expand on what I said in my last post Tom Brady threw the ball 637 times in 2012 174 of those targets went to Wes Welker, last season he threw the ball 628 times and 151 went to Edelman. The difference in the productivity of the passing game was not Edelman being force-fed the ball. Those 151 targets would have went to the receiver in that role no matter who was healthy and who was not, they had every single year since 2007; it was Brady’s completion ratio being down 3% from the prior year, and his average being down 0.64 yards.

As you have pointed out the rest of the wide receivers did not produce much, so I have mixed feelings why you would advocate against the importance of Edelman. I mean no disrespect but I believe the issue is that you have a hard time believing that Edelman very well could have been a 100 receptions, 1000 yards player but was buried behind Welker, Hernandez and others over the past few years.

Brady was nothing more than a sixth rounder when Bledsoe went down, he seized the moment, and the “only healthy QB” statement was not the reasoning for his success, Edelman did the same thing. We should value that he stepped up when we needed him too, and not use it to disvalue him.

My thinking has always been that there were 2 major aspects as it pertains to Edelman's good 2013 season:

1. The fact that he was the only receiving option worth a damn, unless you somehow missed Brady freaking out after just the 2nd week vs the Jets.

2. The fact that we had no other capable outside options--which certainly goes hand in hand with the first point.

Who else was Brady going to throw to? The other options would either run the wrong routes, drop the ball, round their routes like 5th grade pee wee receivers, or any combination of all of the above. I'd also add injuries and arrests to that grouping.

Anyone watching the games could easily tell that Edelman was Brady's go-to guy for 2013. Damn...he was the only guy who knew where to go!

 

[Brady6]

My thinking has always been that there were 2 major aspects as it pertains to Edelman's good 2013 season:

1. The fact that he was the only receiving option worth a damn, unless you somehow missed Brady freaking out after just the 2nd week vs the Jets.

2. The fact that we had no other capable outside options--which certainly goes hand in hand with the first point.

Who else was Brady going to throw to? The other options would either run the wrong routes, drop the ball, round their routes like 5th grade pee wee receivers, or any combination of all of the above. I'd also add injuries and arrests to that grouping.

Anyone watching the games could easily tell that Edelman was Brady's go-to guy for 2013. Damn...he was the only guy who knew where to go!

The thing is that Brady did throw the ball to other players 76% of the time. Last season he targeted players other than Welker 74% of the time. The way I see it is they ran similar plays in 2013 to 2012 and Edelman ran the routes under 10 yards the same way Welker did in years past, he was successful. The players running other routes were not as successful, but that does not mean that the attempts were not being made.

Maybe you feel Amendola could run those routes or TJ Moe and have the same success in which case I understand your belief that Edelman is expendable, personally I do not have confidence in that. TJ Moe is an unknown, and Amendola from everything I have seen in 2013 (including the preseason) and with the Rams does not create the type of space as quickly as Welker or Edelman, and has success running routes in the 7-10 yards range where he can work a 1on1 matchup.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thank you for this post. You clarify the situation.

So, Edelman is going to be able to break the bank based on one year of production, and will never be able to repeat?

If Edelman is as good as you think, he will have another chance to break the bank.

He'll be 28 at the start of next season. So, a three year deal would have him looking to renegotiate for a new contract beginning when he is 31, when all but the greatest (people are saying he's really good, but I don't hear anyone saying he's Randy Moss or Jerry Rice) start to lose a step.

This is certainly his best and probably his only chance to negotiate a multi year deal for a lot of money.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If the Patriots let Brady’s top target walk two seasons in a row…

...it will be "Business as Usual" and Tom Brady will know that.

The argument against letting him walk is clear.

The argument that the Krafts would make in support of letting him walk is simple: "We've been to the AFCCG seven times in 13 seasons and to the SB five times; we're not going to change how we've been doing things when we compete in a League where Championships are decided in a single game, 'Win or go home,' format."

The Krafts have focused on building teams that are competitive for the Playoffs every season; Bob Kraft has said time and again that that is his strategic objective going into every season. He is not Dan Snyder or Wrecks Ryan...building teams to win an SB or blustering about winning one.

The Krafts understand that the outcomes of playoff games often hinge on luck, officials' calls and freak plays: the Tuck call...the Velcro helmet magic catch in one SB loss...Welker dropping a tough but catch-able ball in the other (or an inconsistent and erratic Eli Manning throwing one perfect sideline pass in that same game if you don't think the Welker criticism is fair).

Their formula has worked. They're not going to change it now...nor should they.

 

[supafly]

The thing is that Brady did throw the ball to other players 76% of the time. Last season he targeted players other than Welker 74% of the time. The way I see it is they ran similar plays in 2013 to 2012 and Edelman ran the routes under 10 yards the same way Welker did in years past, he was successful. The players running other routes were not as successful, but that does not mean that the attempts were not being made.

Maybe you feel Amendola could run those routes or TJ Moe and have the same success in which case I understand your belief that Edelman is expendable, personally I do not have confidence in that. TJ Moe is an unknown, and Amendola from everything I have seen in 2013 (including the preseason) and with the Rams does not create the type of space as quickly as Welker or Edelman, and has success running routes in the 7-10 yards range where he can work a 1on1 matchup.

I want Edelman to stay here. I just disagree with the thought that Brady would care that much, or that the front office/Belichick would be screwing him somehow.

I also don't have quite as high of an opinion about Edelman after one productive season as you do, although I've always been one of his biggest backers and felt that he had potential. I'm not as sure that he sees anywhere close to 100 catches again though.

I think both he and Talib test the waters of free agency to help both parties better gauge where they're at, and they'll go from there.

 

[Ring 6]

Vereen is better than Woodhead, since when, Woodhead had more receptions and yards last season than Vereen has in his career. Vereen may be more talented than Woodhead but he is not better and if you actually believe, he is than it is you who should watch football and not me.

Vereen is a better RB than Woodhead. I can't believe you are even arguing that.

What a dumb question to ask in a Patriots forum “do you watch the games”. That is like going to an AA meeting and asking if the people ever drank…

People at AA would speak as if they knew what happened when you drink.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Vereen is a better RB than Woodhead. I can't believe you are even arguing that.

I'd have to respectfully disagree with that. Woodhead had 1296 APY last year. Vereen has 1158 in his 3 year career. Vereen's 4 years younger and has the potential to be better, but as of right now-no.

I'm not giving Vereen a pass for injury. If you can't stay on the field and produce, then you're not better than the guy that does.

 

[resdubwhite]

Vereen hasn't shown he's a better player than Woodhead yet. He's shown flashes but not there at all.

 

[OhExaulted1]

Vereen hasn't shown he's a better player than Woodhead yet. He's shown flashes but not there at all.

If he could just stay healthy...but that could be said for an overwhelming portion of our roster.

 

[Ring 6]

I'd have to respectfully disagree with that. Woodhead had 1296 APY last year. Vereen has 1158 in his 3 year career. Vereen's 4 years younger and has the potential to be better, but as of right now-no.

I'm not giving Vereen a pass for injury. If you can't stay on the field and produce, then you're not better than the guy that does.

Whether a player was unfortunate enough to sustain an injury is not part of my definition of how good a football player they are.

 

[supafly]

I think that Woodhead also benefited greatly from SD's lack of adequate receiving options last year as well, aside from the great rookie season of Keenan Allen. That really inflated his numbers a bit in my opinion.

The choice to keep the younger, cheaper 3rd down back who is a better receiving option and has a higher ceiling than Woodhead made a lot of sense to me, but I can see the debate of course.

 

[mgteich]

Why does it surprise you that Brady6 would say this?

Vereen is a better RB than Woodhead. I can't believe you are even arguing that.

 

[Ring 6]

Why does it surprise you that Brady6 would say this?

I'm more surprised at myself for caring that he said it.

 

[Brady6]

I also don't have quite as high of an opinion about Edelman after one productive season as you do, although I've always been one of his biggest backers and felt that he had potential. I'm not as sure that he sees anywhere close to 100 catches again though.

I think all players start with one productive season. I see it as one opportunity and one success, if Edelman had been receiving the same chance the prior four seasons and failing I could understand your position more. He was productive in his rookie season, he filled in for Welker in four games (Jets, Falcons, Texans, and Ravens) during which he compiled 27 receptions, 265 yards, and 2 touchdowns. If you trend that out over 16 games it equates to 108 receptions, 1060 yards, and 8 touchdowns, which is similar to what he achieved this season. He never saw the reps in 2010, 2011, and 2012 with a healthy Welker, notable acquisitions, and early round draft picks.

 

[Brady6]

Vereen is a better RB than Woodhead. I can't believe you are even arguing that.

Ok, explain to me how he is better Andy, is he faster, quicker, stronger, more productive? You seem so certain that he is better I have to assume that you will have a laundry list of reasons.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps we should compare combine numbers.

Ok, explain to me how he is better Andy, is he faster, quicker, stronger, more productive? You seem so certain that he is better I have to assume that you will have a laundry list of reasons.

 

[Brady6]

I think that Woodhead also benefited greatly from SD's lack of adequate receiving options last year as well, aside from the great rookie season of Keenan Allen. That really inflated his numbers a bit in my opinion.

The choice to keep the younger, cheaper 3rd down back who is a better receiving option and has a higher ceiling than Woodhead made a lot of sense to me, but I can see the debate of course.

Geez you are not an easy guy to please, the pizza must only be good in your neighborhood because of the limited number of pizza shops

For the record I understand them keeping Vereen, I just don’t understand them signing Washington to back him up knowing full well that Vereen has a history of injuries. Brandon Bolden had no business as the third down RB.

 

[50-yard-line]

Geez you are not an easy guy to please, the pizza must only be good in your neighborhood because of the limited number of pizza shops

For the record I understand them keeping Vereen, I just don’t understand them signing Washington to back him up knowing full well that Vereen has a history of injuries. Brandon Bolden had no business as the third down RB.

Maybe playing time had something to do with it. Woodhead here was the #3 option.

Perhaps he wanted more reps.

 

[Joker]

Coming here to Patsfans...tomorrow at 4 P.M.