Idle Thoughts

[patfanken]

I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.

The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.

I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

 

[patsfanincleveland]

I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.

The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.

I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

ken

The Pats system and coaching really is that much better than the rest of the league.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Congratulations! Bravo! Félicitations! Chapeau! Auguri! Herzlichen Glückwunsch! Mazeltov!

 

[Tony2046]

JG being on the team does not mean this is Brady's last year. It just means JG is still on the team.

If Brady plays at an elite level again this year why would they cut him for an unproven backup. That would potentially cost them a shot at another championship run.

OTOH, if Brady gets injured or hits his ever mediot anticipated "Cliff" you potentially have the best back up to put in the game.

JG is simply a great insurance policy.

 

[BelichickFan]

Way over reaction on Jimmy. He can easily be Franchised and Traded next year. A team like Arizona may have a retired Palmer, no developmental QB and win too many games to draft a highly ranked QB. Enter JG for their #1. We'd get less than this year but we would likely still get a substantial return even with a stronger QB class.

What does it buy us ?

- Top Backup in case Brady misses a few games.
- Top Backup in case Brady takes one bad hit and is out for the year.
- Future quality starter in case Brady retires after 2017. Torn ACL, bad concussion, winning another SB. All could make him do it.
- Future quality starter in case Brady quietly tells Belichick he'll play 2 more years then retire.
- Insurance on 2018 if Brady starts to decline, even if it's not visable to us the fans.

Keeping him buys TONS of insurance for 1 or even 2 years while maintaining a valuable - though less valuable than last week - trade chip.

Would I have traded him ? Yes. But going into a Super Bowl contending season it's an amazing feeling to know that if Brady gets hurt we have Jimmy. Look at the Raiders last year when Carr got hurt. And Jimmy's trade value didn't go from sky high to nothing, it just dropped some.

As I have said before I have no issue Franchising and keeping him next year, and considering this year and next to be a 2 year, $26M extension. $13M a year to protect against all kinds of miserable scenarios as Brady enters his age 40, then age 41 seasons. The NFL is littered with teams who lost top QB then took a decade or more to get another one.

 

[Patjew]

I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.

The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.

I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

Congrats on the 10,000 posts, Ken! Always an interesting read.

(I also have around 10,000 posts but I bet you have posted 150X the amount of words that I have )

 

[fgssand]

Congrats on 10,000 -- you are one of the "must reads" that make this site the best!

 

[PatsDeb]

JG being on the team does not mean this is Brady's last year. It just means JG is still on the team.

If Brady plays at an elite level again this year why would they cut him for an unproven backup. That would potentially cost them a shot at another championship run.

OTOH, if Brady gets injured or hits his ever mediot anticipated "Cliff" you potentially have the best back up to put in the game.

JG is simply a great insurance policy.

I think BB looked around and thought, if I get rid of Jimmy G and Jacoby isn't ready, I'll have to get another back up QB and there is nobody that I really love enough in this draft that I am desperate to have on my team, and that I will have to pay big bucks for. I think he wants the best back up in football this year, and if Brady plays lights out again this year, is prepared to lose him next year, when Jacoby will have another year under his belt as a back up. Or, if Brady declines or decides he's had enough, he can sign Jimmy G long term if he's the guy. After looking around, BB decided that the status quo was the best option at QB this year, and that he would build the team in other areas, through other means. Then, he'll deal with the QB position when he has to, next year.

 

[Ring 6]

I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.

The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.

I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

Did you seriously say every team the patriot will face has better or at least equal talent?
Are you talking about singing and dancing talent?

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

Just so you know. I gave you the like and then went to read it.

Idle Thoughts is one of the best pieces on this site.

in other words, Thank You. you can articulate many thoughts much better than I can - even if the observation and understanding is the same.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I
The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

At LEAST? Grounds for firing the Patriots GM.

 

[teamplay]

10,000 posts is a mind-blowing number. Many thanks for Idle Thoughts! I never miss them!

Congratulations!!!

 

[AzPatsFan]

I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.

The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.

I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

You have identified all the genuine concerns save one. QB. It is a strength and yet you insist on treating it as a weakness. "Apres moi, le Deluge" is hardly a correct policy.

BB is thinking ahead. There must be a transition sometime. Nothing is forever. I dont know that it is a pure binary proposition. Brady or not Brady, and when. A possibility is Polo and a backup Brady. It may not be real but BB might be able to do it. It hurt the Browns and BB, but BB had the stamina and steadfastness to order and standby the decision about benching hometown hero Bernie Kosar. The stakes are bigger, but BB's rep is much bigger, too.

There are three obstacles:
Brady's psyche may not allow it, or
Some fans will not accept it, or,
And the most probable, the Media meatheads wont allow it.

Can you imagine the Felgeritis second guessing run amok over every fumble, Int, or even Incompletion? BB demonstrated in the Kosar and to a degree in the Bledsoe experience, that a timid transition is not possible. It needs to be a clean break, with no timidness to being second guessed indecision on his part, or it cant possibly work; and Brady's bags will have to be packed.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Football is ever cyclical.

Teams certainly look to history, and the one piece of history all opposing teams will look at hard will be the first 2/3 of the Super Bowl. Do you see that as a blueprint for how other teams will play the Pats this year? I still haven't figured out how much of the subsequent swing was Belichick changing up the game plan and how much was the Falcons running out of gas.

The margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL

That is reinforced by the betting sites that have the over/under on Pats' wins at 11.5 games.

Always appreciate your thoughtful posts, and congrats on your 10k posts and your well-deserved 12.7k positive ratings!

 

[archstanton543]

ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure.

Speak for yourself. My expectation is that they get to the AFCCG. What happens after that is gravy.

 

[sb1]

Always a great read Ken.

I think there's a better chance than we all would like that Brady's exit will not be voluntary

However... the only way Brady ends his time as a Patriot this year IMO is a 2008 style catastrophic injury. This is a win-now team and we have only one win-now QB on the roster. I can't see them moving on if he is still playing at a high level.

 

[patsfan13]

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

I am OK with young guys getting better and progressing under the tutelage of BB & CO. Pretty young group overall, with a lot of upside,

The snaps of Alan Branch will be something to watch, want him fresh for the playoffs. Generally the depth seems to be better. Something the really good pats D's have featured.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

Well again there was a LOT of youth on the interior that figures to get better. I agree with Andrews physical limitations, I see a situation where an OT cold swing inside providing more depth there, + we have to monitor the situation with Solder going into a contract year as a 30 yr old when the contract expires.

Very much agree about Mangold as a FA, but we won't see that signing if it happens until TC starts, he probably want to miss OTA's. I am fine with that.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

The schedule was set by the league to try to slow the Patriots down.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

BB has made a career over taking away what a team does well good luck with that strategy.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

Well my wife isn't exactly a knowledgeable FB fan (knows a lot about Baseball), she sees a change in TB12's social media content that makes her think he is looking to retire. She thinks his family life is making him learn towards retirement.

Also remember that Don Yee reps both TB12 and JG. Brady doesn't strike me as a farewell tour type of guy (like Jeter or Ortiz) and would let BB & Yee know what is happening to help the team and JG.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

Grats on the 10K posts a ton of quality and not just quantity.

 

[zydecochris]

I know everyone is riding high right now with the way this off season has gone, but it is important NOT to lose track of the fact that the margin of victory is still very thin in the NFL, and it doesn't take much to derail a season. ESPECIALLY when if you don't win the Superbowl the season will be a failure. So just a one game slip up can doom a season.

The fact is that the Pats will rarely line up against a team this fall whose physical talent will not be at LEAST as good as their's. And as much as we'd like to think the Pat's system and coaching is THAT much better than anyone else's, we'd best remember that they are paying those other guys a LOT of money too. So while I believe BB and his staff are the best in the league, the gap isn't as big as we'd like to think. (as we saw in the first half of the superbowl)

1 Concerns - Yes Martha, there ARE concerns.

a. The defensive line. Its solid and deeper now since the draft, but the fact remains that if we are honest, if you rated the DL's in the AFCE, ours would be ranked #4 based on Talent.
For things to go well this year a lot of things have to happen.

Malcolm Brown needs to raise the level of his play. Brown has been a solid NFL starting DT who has flashed on occasion. For the Pats DL to be successful he needs to "flash" a lot more this season.

Alan Branch - He needs to maintain the high level of play he showed last season. That isn't easy for a guy who will be 33 before the playoffs.

Vincent Valentine - He needs to make a solid 2nd year jump, especially if there is a decline in Branch's play.

Ealy and Guy have to make an impact right away. Both guys have flashed, but also have been up and down. They have to come in here and play consistently well. We all HOPE they will. We has some reason to EXPECT they will. But we don't KNOW they will. That's the concern that won't be answered until October.

b. The interior of the OL - We were OK last season, but when the chips were down in the superbowl our running game vanished, and it wasn't just LBG's fault. There were no holes. I'd be OK with David Andrews at C, but I'd be happier with an upgrade. His physical limitations make him a liability in the run game, and an issue against certain DLmen in pass protection. More and more 4-3 teams are lining up a DT or LB right on Andrews to push the pocket.

I'm sure there is a back up C on the team, but it's pretty much anyone's guess who it is. (Karras is my guess). We added 2 OT projects to a fairly stacked OT group, yet, so far, have completely ignored the interior OL depth.

Now this is kind of like the S situation. Because one one got hurt, we could see how the back ups would fare. Maybe they are happy with the current situaton, so my "concern" may be unwarranted. I hope so, but I'd feel a lot better if we signed Mangold.

c. The schedule: Looking at this schedule I can't imagine how FO's declared that the Pats had the easiest schedule this season. NFL.com just came out with their post draft rankings, and while I know it doesn't mean anything, it is interesting to note that of the top 13 teams on the list the Pats play 7 of them including #2 (Falcons) #3 (Steelers), and #4 (Raiders). That doesn't sound like a cake walk to me. (btw- the Pats were ranked #1)

Not only that - There is the issue of that 6 game stretch where they play 5 road games. This is a schedule anomoly that almost NEVER happens. I think twice in the last 20 years. And IIRC I don't think either team won more than 3 games. Think about it, that is almost 2 straight months on the road.

OK so there really are only 3 concerns, and compared to questions most teams have, they don't amount to much. I mean the DL, at worst will be OK, but will it be as good as it was last season, which ended up being OK, but not dominant. What we get from Guy, Ealy and Flowers will tell. btw- Flowers is going to have to raise HIS game as well. Teams are going to start looking for him as he will start the season as the Pats only proven pass rush threat.

2. Changes:

a. Football is ever cyclical. Alot of the new things we see from offenses like Carolina's have be taken almost directly from Single wing concepts of the 30's and 40's.

b. One of the reasons I worry about the DL is that I think the pendulum is going to start swinging back to the running game. The fact so many RB's were drafted in the first 3 rounds is a testiment to that fact. Since finding a good QB is so damned hard, teams are starting to realize that a good run game can cover a lot of QB sins (see Dallas, Titans, and even Buffalo). Also the move to smaller faster defenses who play nickel as their base make it prudent and easier to run the ball more. We can see it in our own off season planning with the additions of Burkhead and Gillislee. So watch for that change this season.

3. Still having trouble wrapping my head around the fact that JG is still here. I believe that Cleveland DID offer the #12 plus more this year and next, but the Pats didn't budge. I'm OK with it, especially since I think we got a guy who can be the edge rusher I wanted with that #12 pick down the road.

But what I can't get my head around is the meaning that decision implies. They didn't turn down those draft assets simply because they wanted the best back up possible for 2017. I can only conclude that they have made the decision that JG is going to be the next QB for the NE Patriots.....period.

So it seems, there is a good probability that this will be Tom Brady's last season with the team. That is a hard concept to digest. Maybe I'm wrong, but that is most logical conclusion. I know the fashionable narrative is that they will franchise JG in 2018, but while possible, the number will just be so restrictive, that it makes no sense for the rest of the team.

I wonder what Brady is thinking? I can't imagine he doesn't see the implications of the lack of a move. I can't imagine that Brady, BB and Kraft, haven't had a disucssion about it. And I can't imagine that it won't be a huge story line by the mediots the entire 2017 season, filled with rampant speculation. Because, we KNOW the Pats and Brady are never going to directly address it.

I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better

Thanks Ken, your Idle Thoughts posts are a large part of what makes this forum so great. Thank you (and a few others) for being teachers in this forum/classroom of Patriots Football.

 

[n6249c]

Thought about clicking "disagree" on the OP because of this:

"I think this is my 10,000th post. That's a lot of crap I've written over the years. I hope some of it was at least interesting. And as usual, your comments and additions will make the thread better."

Maybe that part was crap, but as usual Ken wrote so much else that was so good I just could not convince myself, despite my usual contrarian outlook.

Seriously, Ken, you are perhaps the only poster on here that I consider "must read" (well, there's Joker, but that's for a totally different reason). Great job on 10k posts, with very little crap and much much insight shared. Thanks, and keep up the good work!

 

[BobDigital]

Happy 10,000th post Ken! Yeah the big story is JG wasn't traded and i too think it implies Brady is possibly gone. The only way Brady stays is if BB us convinced if he lets Brady leave he is probably leaving a super bowl title on the table.

This team needs to convince him that is the case.