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I was thinking about a title for this week's offering when I happened to check the scores from the early games. When I saw that Buffalo beat Denver, I thought to myself, wtf. When I saw the Bears beat Pittsburgh, I though wtf!!!. And so it went on an on. He Jags CRUSHED the Ravens, the Panthers lose big to Minnesota, the much maligned Saints beat down the much heralded Bucs, and FINALLY, the Jetes WIN convincingly vs Miami.....WTF!!!!!!!!!!!! And thus I had a title for this thread.
Every week Bill tries to tell us that it is hard to win ANY game in the NFL, and every week we pretty much ignore what he says because we now seem to think that winning these games is almost a right rather than a hard earned result. We forget that when Vegas makes the Pats 13 point favorites, it doesn't mean they think the Pats are 2 TD better than the Texans, but rather it means it they have to make the spread that big inorder to entice enough money on the Texans to even the pool. Vegas is dealing in the bettor's PERCEPTION, while Bellichick is dealing with the reality of the actual game on the field.
So in the end what we SHOULD have learned by 4pm is that Bill is right. It is hard to win a game in the NFL and we really shouldn't be so surprised when we have a week like this. I thought this would be a fairly close game (4-10 point win), though I would have bet that we wouldn't need 36 points to eek one out.
In broad terms, I think that this offense is better than I expected at this point. What is surprising is that it still can get a lot better. If you told me this team would put up 5 TD against this defense WITHOUT Marcus Cannon I would have told you, you are massively optimisitic. If you told me they could have done it and STILL leave points out on the field I would have told you you were crazy.
As far as the defense goes, I think it is better than it will get credit for this week. Watson played out of his mind in getting out out of mulitple sacks (more on that later). The Pats gave Houston 7 with the pick/fumble, and the refs added 6 more with 2 outrageous calls in the first half. (the PI on Gilmore and the PF on the tackle). So I look on a defense that was missing 3 starters giving up 20 points to Houston is not a bad day, but more an average one.
So much for the opening soliliqy, lets break it down.
OFFENSE
1. QB - after putting up 378 yds on what many think is the best D in the league, maybe it really IS nitpicking to b!tch about Brady missing 2 open receivers deep at the end of the first half, and have a tough game (for him) holding on to the ball (3 fumbles). Few people remember that in his first couple of years, fumbles were a big problem for him. One that he spent a lot of time specifically looking to correct that flaw.
But here's the thing. One of the realities of throwing the ball deeper down the field, is that it is harder to be as accurate, so there will be times when even Brady will miss open receivers. Hard to compete 70%+ when you are going downfield as often as the Pats have been recently.
The "Cliff" seems further and further away with every passing game. Even in th KC game, Brady put up 27 points against one of the better Defenses in the league.
b. Watson made a fan out of me. I wasn't expecting nearly anything close to what I saw. With the exception of the one pick, this kid made play after clutch play in order to keep his team in the game. Not only did he show extreme escapeability, but when he finally threw the ball, he showed I good arm strength and accuracy. He kept his vision down field and found the open man. Houston has been waiting a LONG time for a good starting QB. Based on what he showed on the road today, they took a huge step in that search.
2. OL - Not as good as we hoped, but not as bad as it looked. I'll take 2 examples. On the first sack and the fumble/TD both hits were made by men Solder was blocking. On the first he had pretty good position when he was knocked down by Watt who was rushing vs the OG. It was only after Watt knocked him down that Solder lost control of his man. Also on that play, IIRC, Brady had about 4 seconds to find someone. The second time, it was clear to me that the play called for a fast release by Brady. Solder first looked was to his inside make sure no one got through his inside gap. However, when Brady had to look to his secondary receivers, the outside rush by the DE got there. If the throw came out as planned on either play we wouldn't be talking about this.
Still, I doubt we will see a pass rush even close to this one for the rest of the season, and if we are going to hammer them for the sacks/fumbles, and hurries, we also have to give them credit for the 378 passing yards to team who hasn't given up 300 in over 20 games. Again, as Brady throws more and more deep patterns, he is going to get hit more.
Another point worth noting is that Solder didn't take a live rep in preseason. If the rest of the OL is still in pre-season mode, then Solder is like in the 2nd week of TC
But here's the thing for me. What I AM concerned about is the run blocking. It really hasn't been very good at opening holes and creating any push at the LOS. I wonder if the Pats haven't become so pass happy that we have lost that aggression by the OL?
3. RB - Gillislee, Lewis, and even White have been running hard and aggressively, but there simply hasn't been much in the way of either holes at the point of attack, or overall "push" along the LOS so far this year. Sometimes you just have to question the calls. One one 3rd and 1, instead of lining up and allowing your OL to attack the defense's front, they get into a shotgun with the OL in a two point stance and THEN try and run the ball. As of this point, this isn't a RB issue but rather an OL/play calling thing.
Just a note - Only 4 competions to our RB's today. It will be interesting to learn when the all 22 comes out whether that was because of how the Texans defended them, or just a game plan decision.
BTW- the next time you get a chance to see the winning TD, look at DLewis wide open by 10 yds at about the 15. If Brady had taken the easy throw, the Pats would have had the ball somewhere between the 5-10 with 3 shots to get it in (after stopping the clock on first down)
4. Receivers - I have ALWAYS been a DA fan, even in his first year here. So far this year, he has over 150 yds and each catch seems to be more clutch than the last. Here's hoping he can stay on the field, because if he does, we will finally see why BB gave him the big bucks. (only now we don't have to pay it. )
b. I guess this is why we got Brandin Cooks. I still don't think he's an "elite" WR like Jones and Green, but within the Pats offensive system he can create serious match up issues that will affect the rest of the receivers in a way second only to Gronk. And it's not just about his speed. This kid seems like a well rounded receiver who can run all the routes and has dependable hands. And the good thing is it will only get better as he becomes more familiar with the offense and Brady.
c. You know if Chris Hogan keeps up this kind of production, the so called "experts" will eventually start to take him seriously.
d. Only Gronk can spend more than half his time blocking and STILL catch for 90 plus a TD. BTW- Gronk really was outstanding in pass protection. There is no question that if he added 30 pounds he'd be an all pro LT too. On the other hand, Gronks biggest "drop" of the day came on the hail mary at the end of the game that went right through his hands. That might have been an ugly end to the game if Harmon hadn't come up with it. Believe me he is going to take some heat from his defensive teammates when they see it tommorow.
5. Offensive game plan - Hard to complain about putting up 36 points and 5 TD against what is considered a top defense, but I would appreciate it if Josh spent some time this week with our short yardage run game (as well as the rest of the run game for that matter) and try to get that one squared away. They are going to need a much improved run game vs the Panthers who also have a very tough front 7
6 Defense -
a. Front 7 - By and large the run defense was decent, but not great holding the Texans run game to just under 4ypc. Of course 41 of those yard were from Watson so while the run defense wasn't stifiling it wasn bad either. Also while I thought we didn't get the kind of pressure on Watson that I'd like, there was some pressure (2 sacks). There were also several opportunities that should have at least doubled that number. Both Wise and Flowers stood out as did Guy in my opinion. There still was very little group rush. Mostly it was individuals that put pressure on Watson and very rarely did they get him down.
Part of that was due to the type of scheme they drew up for this game. No blitzing of any kind. No really hard rushes off the edge. They did what they always seem to do vs a QB who is also a run threat. As you all know, that is often very frustrating to watch, but it is hard to argue with the end result.
b. Alan Branch was still a no show as far as his impact plays go.
c. The DL/LB group is still a work in progress. Roberts and Van Noy were both very active and among the tackling leaders. I think both are improving their play, but until we get a look at the tapes, that is a very subjective opinion. Let me know if you agree or not. Almost all the damage RB's had in the passing game came on broken plays.
d. Have I mentioned that Watson was far more elusive that I thought he'd be. I'll leave it up to Bill do decide if was his ability to avoid pressure or something the Pats were doing wrong.
6. Secondary - Giving up 300 yds to a rookie who is on the road isn't a good look for what is supposedly a top 5 secondary, but like a lot of things this game, it was better than it looked. I'd be interested in seeing just how much yardage the Texans got AFTER the regular play had broken down. Holding Hopkins to just 75 yds, given all the targets he gets was good. Allowing NH's own Ryan Griffin to grab 5 balls and a TD is NOT so good.
b. Here's the question I'd like to ask Matty P after this game. "Matt, most of the 75 yds that Hopkins got in this game came on plays that the Pats were in zone defense. I have noticed that despite having a guy you are paying big money to be a shut down guy, you've had him zone coverages a good percentage of the time. Why is that?"
Now its only an anecdotal observation, but it seems to me that when teams have had most of their success against Gilmore it has come when the Pats were in zone coverages rather than man.
c. We will be facing the Panther who are have a lot of big WR's, so I hope Rowe will be back healthy. I also expect Hightower to be back this week and hopefully he can add some more impactful plays from this defense
d. Officially we added 2 TO's this game, though the last one was on the hail mary. The lack of TO's continues to be a small source of overall concern about this team. Granted those things come in bunches (just ask the Ravens) and can stop as fast as they start (just ask the Ravens). But the fact remains, that when you can create them, it makes the game a lot easier than when you can't.
7. ST's - certainly NOT one of Ryan Allen's best games, but I guess that happens. DA had over 50 yds on 2 returns, and 2 of the new guys (Flowers and Badamossi) had big hits in coverage that I noticed (along with a great one from old friend Brandon Boldin). So the coverage units were very good the punting wasn't up to par and it might have cost us.
8. The refs definitely cost the Pats 6 points on 2 rather incomprehensible calls on Stephon Gilmore. The 35 yd PI on him which led to their first points, and the PF for simply tackling someone out of bounds which led to another first half FG. Even Fouts couldn't justify that foul.
9. I had forgotten just how bad Fouts' broadcast team was, spending most of their time building up Houston and questioning almost every call that went the Pats way. Late in the game he mentioned that Houston had incurred 10 penalties, which was double what the Pats got; while ignoring that those 10 penalties went for only 60 yds, while the 5 the Pats got were for 70. This was just Romo's 3rd game and already I long for him to call our games.
10. I'm glad to see Bob Kraft finally stepped up to comment on Trumps' divisive comments. A bit late in my humble opinion, but it looks like it has been pretty much a united front from the owners. Believe me it is very hard for me to be on the same side as Mara/Goodel, but I guess this is the exception that proves the rule.
Here's the thing. If Trump were a private citizen I wouldn't care if he offerred up that opinion. And I fully support the right of any other fan to agree with him. But Trump ISN'T a private citizen anymore and he has a RESPONSIBILITY to be a cohesive and unifying voice to the nation. Instead he has not only taken EVERY opportunity to be divisive, he also attacked the very institutions that make democracy even possible. (a free press, trust in the electoral system, and the federal form of government). His flag waving bashing of the NFL and its players is just another in a long line of examples of his efforts to divide the country. You have to wonder if that is "the plan".
11. On to the Panthers who took one on the chin in this day of surprising results. It will be interesting to explore what caused the loss, and if it will carry over to this week. Clearly the beat down by the Pats didn't end NO's season.
Every week Bill tries to tell us that it is hard to win ANY game in the NFL, and every week we pretty much ignore what he says because we now seem to think that winning these games is almost a right rather than a hard earned result. We forget that when Vegas makes the Pats 13 point favorites, it doesn't mean they think the Pats are 2 TD better than the Texans, but rather it means it they have to make the spread that big inorder to entice enough money on the Texans to even the pool. Vegas is dealing in the bettor's PERCEPTION, while Bellichick is dealing with the reality of the actual game on the field.
So in the end what we SHOULD have learned by 4pm is that Bill is right. It is hard to win a game in the NFL and we really shouldn't be so surprised when we have a week like this. I thought this would be a fairly close game (4-10 point win), though I would have bet that we wouldn't need 36 points to eek one out.
In broad terms, I think that this offense is better than I expected at this point. What is surprising is that it still can get a lot better. If you told me this team would put up 5 TD against this defense WITHOUT Marcus Cannon I would have told you, you are massively optimisitic. If you told me they could have done it and STILL leave points out on the field I would have told you you were crazy.
As far as the defense goes, I think it is better than it will get credit for this week. Watson played out of his mind in getting out out of mulitple sacks (more on that later). The Pats gave Houston 7 with the pick/fumble, and the refs added 6 more with 2 outrageous calls in the first half. (the PI on Gilmore and the PF on the tackle). So I look on a defense that was missing 3 starters giving up 20 points to Houston is not a bad day, but more an average one.
So much for the opening soliliqy, lets break it down.
OFFENSE
1. QB - after putting up 378 yds on what many think is the best D in the league, maybe it really IS nitpicking to b!tch about Brady missing 2 open receivers deep at the end of the first half, and have a tough game (for him) holding on to the ball (3 fumbles). Few people remember that in his first couple of years, fumbles were a big problem for him. One that he spent a lot of time specifically looking to correct that flaw.
But here's the thing. One of the realities of throwing the ball deeper down the field, is that it is harder to be as accurate, so there will be times when even Brady will miss open receivers. Hard to compete 70%+ when you are going downfield as often as the Pats have been recently.
The "Cliff" seems further and further away with every passing game. Even in th KC game, Brady put up 27 points against one of the better Defenses in the league.
b. Watson made a fan out of me. I wasn't expecting nearly anything close to what I saw. With the exception of the one pick, this kid made play after clutch play in order to keep his team in the game. Not only did he show extreme escapeability, but when he finally threw the ball, he showed I good arm strength and accuracy. He kept his vision down field and found the open man. Houston has been waiting a LONG time for a good starting QB. Based on what he showed on the road today, they took a huge step in that search.
2. OL - Not as good as we hoped, but not as bad as it looked. I'll take 2 examples. On the first sack and the fumble/TD both hits were made by men Solder was blocking. On the first he had pretty good position when he was knocked down by Watt who was rushing vs the OG. It was only after Watt knocked him down that Solder lost control of his man. Also on that play, IIRC, Brady had about 4 seconds to find someone. The second time, it was clear to me that the play called for a fast release by Brady. Solder first looked was to his inside make sure no one got through his inside gap. However, when Brady had to look to his secondary receivers, the outside rush by the DE got there. If the throw came out as planned on either play we wouldn't be talking about this.
Still, I doubt we will see a pass rush even close to this one for the rest of the season, and if we are going to hammer them for the sacks/fumbles, and hurries, we also have to give them credit for the 378 passing yards to team who hasn't given up 300 in over 20 games. Again, as Brady throws more and more deep patterns, he is going to get hit more.
Another point worth noting is that Solder didn't take a live rep in preseason. If the rest of the OL is still in pre-season mode, then Solder is like in the 2nd week of TC
But here's the thing for me. What I AM concerned about is the run blocking. It really hasn't been very good at opening holes and creating any push at the LOS. I wonder if the Pats haven't become so pass happy that we have lost that aggression by the OL?
3. RB - Gillislee, Lewis, and even White have been running hard and aggressively, but there simply hasn't been much in the way of either holes at the point of attack, or overall "push" along the LOS so far this year. Sometimes you just have to question the calls. One one 3rd and 1, instead of lining up and allowing your OL to attack the defense's front, they get into a shotgun with the OL in a two point stance and THEN try and run the ball. As of this point, this isn't a RB issue but rather an OL/play calling thing.
Just a note - Only 4 competions to our RB's today. It will be interesting to learn when the all 22 comes out whether that was because of how the Texans defended them, or just a game plan decision.
BTW- the next time you get a chance to see the winning TD, look at DLewis wide open by 10 yds at about the 15. If Brady had taken the easy throw, the Pats would have had the ball somewhere between the 5-10 with 3 shots to get it in (after stopping the clock on first down)
4. Receivers - I have ALWAYS been a DA fan, even in his first year here. So far this year, he has over 150 yds and each catch seems to be more clutch than the last. Here's hoping he can stay on the field, because if he does, we will finally see why BB gave him the big bucks. (only now we don't have to pay it. )
b. I guess this is why we got Brandin Cooks. I still don't think he's an "elite" WR like Jones and Green, but within the Pats offensive system he can create serious match up issues that will affect the rest of the receivers in a way second only to Gronk. And it's not just about his speed. This kid seems like a well rounded receiver who can run all the routes and has dependable hands. And the good thing is it will only get better as he becomes more familiar with the offense and Brady.
c. You know if Chris Hogan keeps up this kind of production, the so called "experts" will eventually start to take him seriously.
d. Only Gronk can spend more than half his time blocking and STILL catch for 90 plus a TD. BTW- Gronk really was outstanding in pass protection. There is no question that if he added 30 pounds he'd be an all pro LT too. On the other hand, Gronks biggest "drop" of the day came on the hail mary at the end of the game that went right through his hands. That might have been an ugly end to the game if Harmon hadn't come up with it. Believe me he is going to take some heat from his defensive teammates when they see it tommorow.
5. Offensive game plan - Hard to complain about putting up 36 points and 5 TD against what is considered a top defense, but I would appreciate it if Josh spent some time this week with our short yardage run game (as well as the rest of the run game for that matter) and try to get that one squared away. They are going to need a much improved run game vs the Panthers who also have a very tough front 7
6 Defense -
a. Front 7 - By and large the run defense was decent, but not great holding the Texans run game to just under 4ypc. Of course 41 of those yard were from Watson so while the run defense wasn't stifiling it wasn bad either. Also while I thought we didn't get the kind of pressure on Watson that I'd like, there was some pressure (2 sacks). There were also several opportunities that should have at least doubled that number. Both Wise and Flowers stood out as did Guy in my opinion. There still was very little group rush. Mostly it was individuals that put pressure on Watson and very rarely did they get him down.
Part of that was due to the type of scheme they drew up for this game. No blitzing of any kind. No really hard rushes off the edge. They did what they always seem to do vs a QB who is also a run threat. As you all know, that is often very frustrating to watch, but it is hard to argue with the end result.
b. Alan Branch was still a no show as far as his impact plays go.
c. The DL/LB group is still a work in progress. Roberts and Van Noy were both very active and among the tackling leaders. I think both are improving their play, but until we get a look at the tapes, that is a very subjective opinion. Let me know if you agree or not. Almost all the damage RB's had in the passing game came on broken plays.
d. Have I mentioned that Watson was far more elusive that I thought he'd be. I'll leave it up to Bill do decide if was his ability to avoid pressure or something the Pats were doing wrong.
6. Secondary - Giving up 300 yds to a rookie who is on the road isn't a good look for what is supposedly a top 5 secondary, but like a lot of things this game, it was better than it looked. I'd be interested in seeing just how much yardage the Texans got AFTER the regular play had broken down. Holding Hopkins to just 75 yds, given all the targets he gets was good. Allowing NH's own Ryan Griffin to grab 5 balls and a TD is NOT so good.
b. Here's the question I'd like to ask Matty P after this game. "Matt, most of the 75 yds that Hopkins got in this game came on plays that the Pats were in zone defense. I have noticed that despite having a guy you are paying big money to be a shut down guy, you've had him zone coverages a good percentage of the time. Why is that?"
Now its only an anecdotal observation, but it seems to me that when teams have had most of their success against Gilmore it has come when the Pats were in zone coverages rather than man.
c. We will be facing the Panther who are have a lot of big WR's, so I hope Rowe will be back healthy. I also expect Hightower to be back this week and hopefully he can add some more impactful plays from this defense
d. Officially we added 2 TO's this game, though the last one was on the hail mary. The lack of TO's continues to be a small source of overall concern about this team. Granted those things come in bunches (just ask the Ravens) and can stop as fast as they start (just ask the Ravens). But the fact remains, that when you can create them, it makes the game a lot easier than when you can't.
7. ST's - certainly NOT one of Ryan Allen's best games, but I guess that happens. DA had over 50 yds on 2 returns, and 2 of the new guys (Flowers and Badamossi) had big hits in coverage that I noticed (along with a great one from old friend Brandon Boldin). So the coverage units were very good the punting wasn't up to par and it might have cost us.
8. The refs definitely cost the Pats 6 points on 2 rather incomprehensible calls on Stephon Gilmore. The 35 yd PI on him which led to their first points, and the PF for simply tackling someone out of bounds which led to another first half FG. Even Fouts couldn't justify that foul.
9. I had forgotten just how bad Fouts' broadcast team was, spending most of their time building up Houston and questioning almost every call that went the Pats way. Late in the game he mentioned that Houston had incurred 10 penalties, which was double what the Pats got; while ignoring that those 10 penalties went for only 60 yds, while the 5 the Pats got were for 70. This was just Romo's 3rd game and already I long for him to call our games.
10. I'm glad to see Bob Kraft finally stepped up to comment on Trumps' divisive comments. A bit late in my humble opinion, but it looks like it has been pretty much a united front from the owners. Believe me it is very hard for me to be on the same side as Mara/Goodel, but I guess this is the exception that proves the rule.
Here's the thing. If Trump were a private citizen I wouldn't care if he offerred up that opinion. And I fully support the right of any other fan to agree with him. But Trump ISN'T a private citizen anymore and he has a RESPONSIBILITY to be a cohesive and unifying voice to the nation. Instead he has not only taken EVERY opportunity to be divisive, he also attacked the very institutions that make democracy even possible. (a free press, trust in the electoral system, and the federal form of government). His flag waving bashing of the NFL and its players is just another in a long line of examples of his efforts to divide the country. You have to wonder if that is "the plan".
11. On to the Panthers who took one on the chin in this day of surprising results. It will be interesting to explore what caused the loss, and if it will carry over to this week. Clearly the beat down by the Pats didn't end NO's season.
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