Content Post Idle thoughts - the "we finally won one" edition

[Pats2000]

I actually liked the fact that the Pats looked like they have a long way to go and still won a game by 3 scores. In fact while the offense might have looked better last week in a loss, I can see the plan and how it is unfolding and I am resigned to be patient as it is clear that the offense is a work in progress. The defense as it stands, awes and disappoints at the same time. Hard to complain about giving up 6 points in an away game, but most of my cushion throws came when they were on defense.

This was a great building block game. A win was put in the box, while there are enough obvious holes still to be filled that no one will rest on their laurels as the Saints come to Foxboro and the Bucs to follow. With 3 out of 4 home games to start the season, 2-2 start has to be the bottom line. There are a lot of road games in their future as they enter October and the competition gets better.

Again I do this without checking out other post game analyses (which I'm sure are great and I look forward to reading them. These are just my general observations after watching the game and looking at the basic stats. So lets get this started and break it down.

A. Offense

1. general observations: NOT a good day by any level. Our supposed potent run game averaged less than 4 ypc. Our supposed star rookie QB put up only 183 pass yds at a measly 6.2ypc. and had a pretty horrible 2nd half. The OL rarely opened any significant holes in the run game and gave up 3 sacks most of which looked like jail breaks On the plus side the receivers caught pretty much everything that was thrown their way with just one Smith target that seemed to go through his hands. Those were my first thoughts after I turned off the set after the game and went out for a walk (it was a BEAUTIFUL day). While I walked and thought about the game a few things occurred to me.

Many have commented how conservative our play calling was the first game, and nothing that happened today will make them change their minds on Josh's play calling. Sometimes I find myself calling for them to just throw the damned ball down the field! When they threw that seem pass to Henry, my comment on the game day thread was," FINALLY!!!!!!!" But that's the kind of emotional reactions that fans have, especially fans that really care. However on my walk, my coach's brain clicked in and I thought, "the Jets let THEIR rookie QB be aggressive and they gave him full rein to throw the ball all over the place, while the Pats seem to keep Jones on a tight leash with lots of completions for not many yards. But in the end, which QB is being handled better. Which one is more likely to make steady progress. My coach's brain reminded me that the NFL season is a MARATHON and not a sprint and games in September should be building blocks for December and January. Going into NJ and a hostile crowd and blitzing defense was NOT the time to let Mac "sling it".

In one of the post game network shows they had a piece on the rookie QB's. They showed pictures of Fields (who got significant snaps his game) Wilson, Mills, and Lawrence, with their meager stat lines. The one picture that was missing was our Mac Jones, who while didn't light up the field with his 183 yds and bad 2nd half, he did manage a 19 point win. What it showed is that it is HARD being a rookie NFL QB and it is OUR guy who is handling it better than any of the guys who were picked before him. And one of the reasons WHY that is, is that he is being handled the best. So while I watch these early games I will CONTINUE to demand that we be more aggressive with the passing game, when the fan in me settles down after the game, the coach in me will allow me to understand just why it is happening that way.

2. QB - Mac made ANOTHER of those "I can't believe he just did that" moves that he did last week, when he literally spiked a ball to avoid a sack, when he could have just thrown the ball 5 more yds and it would have been just an incompletion. I'd like to think that these will diminish and won't be a once a game thing. On the plus side he was careful with the ball and kept it out of trouble, on the down side we completed only 25% of our 3rd down chances. He had only 6.2ypc and the team only had the ball less than 10 minutes the entire 2nd half.

There were a couple of times when I thought he seemed to take the easy short throw (that the Jets were covering very well BTW) and missing a few second level throws down the field if he held it a second more. The most obvious was the double pass when he had Agular alone in the endzone and threw the easy one for a 19 yd gain without even looking downfield.

All in all I think he did just OKay. Kind of C/C+ game which may be Okay given it was his first road game and at the end of the game he was just doing what they could to manage the lead. He is still far and away the best rookie QB....so far.

OL - Another game with too many QB hits and sacks to go along with more penalties, though fewer than last week. Running lanes were rare, and the Jets DL seemed to control the LOS for the most part. Now WHY that was happening can't be all be about Trent Brown's absence. But I'll wait for Bedard's OL breakdown later this week before I comment further. But whatever the reason and whomever is to blame, the bottom line is that it's just not good enough right now. But RIGHT NOW are the operative words here. Because he could practice Friday, I expect Trent Brown back this week and maybe we will see the OL START to live up to its rep as one of the best in the NFL.. They will need to be because IIRC the Saints DL is supposed to be be very good.

TE's - I would like to see them get downfield more, but still, so far so good 9 targets for 6 catches and 70 yds with the one seam pass to Henry that warmed my soul and showed some of the promise that they could bring Smith had one miss, but by and large they are catching the ball well. I watch Henry block a few times on runs and he's a tryer. Stays in front of his man for the most part, but doesn't MOVE him, like Gronk could do. Pretty much the same for Smith I saw a a number of times when they tried to use the TE to trap a DLman inside, each time they blocked him, but the plays generally didn't gain much because of so much traffic their was from the rest of the blocks and the quick filling of the holes by LB's

WR -9 catches on 11 targets continue to show that our WR's are doing a very good job catching the ball. However those 9 catches only amounted to 70yds of offense. Are they just not getting open on deeper routes, or is Mac going to his first option too fast and not letting them get open, or is the OL not giving the QB enough time to look deeper. I don't know, but here's what I DO know. Defense are going to start crowding those short zones and dare the Pats to throw deeper UNTIL they start to do it and do it successfully.

RB - You can bet that Harris' 26yd TD run will be on a LOT of NFL highlight reels after this season is over. You might not see a better run the rest of the way. SEVEN guys got a hand on him (some more than a hand). And for icing on the cake, it was our plucky QB who was the 2nd guy there to push him into the endzone (Andrews was the first). Not a great day for OUR RB's. While the Jets had 4 RB's with ypc over 4, we didn't have ANY! Not that I could blame our guys I don't recall even a successful run where they weren't getting hit on the LOS.

Disappointed that JJ didn't get more touches. He had one very nice run that was called back, but I was hoping for more of a look.


B. DEFENSE

a. overview - It is hard to be critical of any defense in this offensive era that allows only 6 points and creates 4 turnovers and 4 sacks, but this effort wasn't without its flaws. The fact that the Jets had 155 yds rushing and all 4 of their RB's had over 4ypc stood out. And it's success was consistent throughout the game. On the other hand the 2ndary was awesome with 4 picks and outstanding tackling and support. Again I will look forward to Bedard's break down to see where the blame lay on the run game.

b. The front 7 - I've talked enough about the apparent problems with the run game in case you missed it. . Is Godsheax the problem. I saw Barmore moved off the ball on occasion Basically he was setting the LOS but a yard back before he stopped the momentum. There were also a few plays where he was a force. That rookie thing again. Old friend Lawrence Guy who was having an awful start of the year going back to camp, seemed to have a better day. The pressure was OK with 4 sacks and number of hits.

I didn't hear Uche's name at all in the first half and was wondering why. I noticed that the Pats were setting him up very wide to start his rushes and he seems to be very soft coming up the field outside the TE box. Then I remembered that Wilson scrambled or rolled, he liked to do it to his right (at Uche) and it was likely that Uche was told to keep him inside him, expecting him to do that. Overall the Pats DID keep Wilson from moving to his right most of the game, and in the 2nd half Uche was active enough to have 2 sacks giving him 3 in 2 games. Uche isn't dominating...yet, but he seems to be an effective outside rusher who can only get better.

Bentley looked to have an effective game if the stats tell the story, and Hightower's presence was felt more than the first game. Still wondering if Hightower has retired in his mind and wanted one more check. We shall see. Bottom line the front 7 is still a work in progress and I'll be OK with this spotty performance if it leads to something better.

c. Secondary - With their best player 4 games away, this is still the best unit on the team.. by far. We can all laud the usual suspects. JC is going to be a very rich young man next season. But I want to point out someone who looks to trending to being a real contributor back there. Joe Williams ran with their speed guys well with a couple of break ups. As usual he was excellent against the run as well. His development, if it continues bodes well for this secondary's depth and flexibility.

Once again the TE's were NOT a factor for our opponent - 3 catches for 18 yds and only 4 targets show that our S's (mostly Duggar and Phillips) have neutralized their TE assignments.

This secondary will be better when Gilmore returns in a month, but it is more than adequate now and likely will be the strength of the defense for most of the season. I hate looking ahead, BUT the Buc's have the best offensive talent in the league....by far. And Brady looks like he hasn't lost a micrometer off his fastball, with the best head in NFL history. So it will be very interesting to see this offense against our secondary and decent pass rush. They won't have a bigger challenge all year.

Special teams

It's going to be a great bar bet trivia question. who has the longest consecutive FG streak for the Pats? After 25 years of Adam and Gotskowski, Nick Folk is NOT the guy you'd expect. But he is, and if you listened to his presser you can't help but come away with how cerebral he is about his craft. He talked about different hold positions for different wind conditions and his knowledge of how winds affect the kick in different stadiums. He also gave a lot of credit to Jack and Joe and how serious each is of their part in the operation. Interesting guy.

Bailey's punting was once again superb, but he had one KO that went out of bounds given the Jets the ball on the 40 and another short KO that came back to the 40. And I don't know if it was the wind or by design. but almost ALL of his KO's were returned. Most got to or close to the 25. Not so good.

And a few words about the Jets. if I were a Jet fan, I would be thrilled with the work of that patchwork OL. They really held up in the middle vs the Pats pass rush, and opened a lot more holes in the run game than the Pats did, As for their QB, while he made a few eye popping throws, but I worry about his long term future in the stench of the Jets organization. The Jets fans were booing by the 2nd quarter and wondering why they are so cursed. Their DL played well, consistently making the Pats run game suspect, and their DB's and LB's covered the Pats short passing well and made tackle after tackle. Finally CJ Mosely might be worth the 2 year wait. The guy is a one man eraser. We play them late in October, so it will be interesting to see how the 2 QB have progressed in about a month. In the past the general results have been very tight games in NJ and blow outs at home. we shall see.

One last factoid that I noticed as I scanned through the stats. The Jets won the TOP, only scored 6 points, yet only punted ONCE. The more you let that sink in the more odd it becomes. To win the TOP when you have 4 TO;s is remarkable in an of itself, but the fact they only punted ONCE kind of blows my mind. Has that even happened in an NFL game before? 6 points and one punt

OK, 2am Got this done early . Have a good night Pats fans, we broke our 2021 cherry and the best is yet to come.

I mean when you turn the ball over 5 times, there's a lot of missed punt opportunities.

 

[PScottman]

missed punt opportunities

Hey! This can be the newest "Next Gen Stat" for ESPN - solely for critiquing the Jete...

 

[zydecochris]

..Many have commented how conservative our play calling was the first game, and nothing that happened today will make them change their minds on Josh's play calling. Sometimes I find myself calling for them to just throw the damned ball down the field! When they threw that seem pass to Henry, my comment on the game day thread was," FINALLY!!!!!!!" But that's the kind of emotional reactions that fans have, especially fans that really care. However on my walk, my coach's brain clicked in and I thought, "the Jets let THEIR rookie QB be aggressive and they gave him full rein to throw the ball all over the place, while the Pats seem to keep Jones on a tight leash with lots of completions for not many yards. But in the end, which QB is being handled better. Which one is more likely to make steady progress. My coach's brain reminded me that the NFL season is a MARATHON and not a sprint and games in September should be building blocks for December and January. Going into NJ and a hostile crowd and blitzing defense was NOT the time to let Mac "sling it".

This. Plus, as if the point wasn't made strongly enough in the game, we have the much maligned Sam Darnold who suddenly looks amazing with Carolina (admittedly only after two games) after escaping from the Jet's system. I think the Pats conservative handling of Mac Jones is just fine with me, thank you very much

 

[patfanken]

Was Mac Jones Good Enough To Win? - YouTube

Here's a great breakdown, Mac is playing it super safe and mssing some definite throws down the field, at least with the Fins. I'm assuming he's in protect the ball at all costs mode.

Thanks for this.

This should be required reading for all Pats fans. So much to see and understand about the creation of a pass play and all the moving parts that are required to make a successful play and all the subtilties a QB is required to know....eventually. I particularly like how Mac's pump fake, which was lauded my many including myself, actually could have brought the primary defender INTO the play. Really good stuff.

Plus looking at all the yardage Mac left on the field in this game reminded me of this fact. Mac is CLEARLY the most NFL ready QB of all the rookies. BUT being NFL ready does not mean you hit the ground fully formed. The learning curve is great and high and there will be more of the misses before they become hits. The Jets game proves its not a linear progression for rookies. So much to learn.

 

[mikey m]

Who knows if the extremely conservative approach is more coaching or more Mac's decisions on the field. My thought now after watching some of that all 22 film is that Mac is obviously getting a heavy dose of film watching, so he is seeing all of that. On the field, it looks like he is going through the reads and then hitting the short option or check down. So, while he is not throwing the more aggressive routes, he is getting to see them develop and then afterwards sync up what he is seeing on the field with what the film shows, hopefully developing a good feel for what "open" looks like in this league. He may just be firing on all cylinders by the time we open up the offense.

 

[mgcolby]

I wonder if some of the protection issues are due to Mac not setting the protection correctly at the line? I get some of the stuff is noticeably bad blocking, but there seems to that on one or two occasions per drive a defender or two come in freely completely untouched. Not excusing the O-Line but wondering out loud if this isn't some of his growing pains. Quite literally for himself.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Thanks for this.

This should be required reading for all Pats fans. So much to see and understand about the creation of a pass play and all the moving parts that are required to make a successful play and all the subtilties a QB is required to know....eventually. I particularly like how Mac's pump fake, which was lauded my many including myself, actually could have brought the primary defender INTO the play. Really good stuff.

Plus looking at all the yardage Mac left on the field in this game reminded me of this fact. Mac is CLEARLY the most NFL ready QB of all the rookies. BUT being NFL ready does not mean you hit the ground fully formed. The learning curve is great and high and there will be more of the misses before they become hits. The Jets game proves its not a linear progression for rookies. So much to learn.

What’s interesting to me is that we used to say the perfect backup for Brady would be someone who just took what was there and didn’t muck things up. Through 2 NFL games, Mac has shown that, barring injury, he can be that ideal backup QB in the NFL and have a nice ~15 year career like Brian Hoyer. Obviously that‘s not what we want from the #15 overall pick, but how many of those guys just plain flame out entirely? During the 2010s, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, Josh Rosen, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, and Dwayne Haskins (likely) were 1st rounders that flamed out entirely — 10 out of 30. Mac should have a better NFL career than any of those guys. He knows how to take what’s there and not give up the ball for the most part (1st NFL pass attempt and intentional grounding play excepted).

Obviously the key is what happens after he has a half dozen games of total experience, then a half dozen road game experience, and then a full offseason to work on his conditioning, improve arm strength and body strength, and watch film. But IMO what we’re seeing right now is exactly what we could have realistically hoped for. Let’s hope he keeps following that realistic improvement trajectory as he gains that experience.

 

[rochrist]

Do you ever have a positive take on anything?

What, DKFelger? Surely you jest.

 

[patfanken]

What’s interesting to me is that we used to say the perfect backup for Brady would be someone who just took what was there and didn’t muck things up. Through 2 NFL games, Mac has shown that, barring injury, he can be that ideal backup QB in the NFL and have a nice ~15 year career like Brian Hoyer. Obviously that‘s not what we want from the #15 overall pick, but how many of those guys just plain flame out entirely? During the 2010s, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow, Josh Rosen, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, and Dwayne Haskins (likely) were 1st rounders that flamed out entirely — 10 out of 30. Mac should have a better NFL career than any of those guys. He knows how to take what’s there and not give up the ball for the most part (1st NFL pass attempt and intentional grounding play excepted).

Obviously the key is what happens after he has a half dozen games of total experience, then a half dozen road game experience, and then a full offseason to work on his conditioning, improve arm strength and body strength, and watch film. But IMO what we’re seeing right now is exactly what we could have realistically hoped for. Let’s hope he keeps following that realistic improvement trajectory as he gains that experience.

It's not even about how he develops over the next half dozen games or even the full season. It's how he develops over the next half dozen YEARS!

We have seen the floor and its exactly what you have described. The perfect back up QB. BUT if he can develops so he starts to see those openings deeper down field. If he develops so when he is flushed from the pocket he can USE his athletic skills to make more happen. If he starts to develop more understanding of where everyone is supposed to be on an instinctual level not just an intellectual one. THEN he can be the QB we want him to bet. But all that takes TIME and not just games, but YEARS

So bottom line, if this is the ceiling then we drafted Brian Hoyer at #15. OUCH! If it's not then we have drafted our stating QB for the next DECADE or more. The latters potential SEEM to be there. The poise, the leadership, the arm strength to make every throw, the love for the game. (you got to LOVE the game to rush the pile and join the push), and the dedication to improve.

The last one is the most important. THAT is what made Brady great. He strove EVERY single off season to make himself better,. He spent all this off season, while he rehabbed his knee working on his mechanics. Think about it, 22 years into your career and you are STILL working on you mechanics. Why? Because he WASN'T blessed with an arm that allowed him to be pushed out of the pocket and throw 50 yd throws off his back foot. He KNOWS that if his mechanics aren't perfect then he is just another QB

It took a long time for Brady to become what he became. I want Jones to ASPIRE to that kind of greatness and be willing to do what Brady did to make it happen. I hope he has the mental toughness to deal with the adversity that WILL come, and the tenacity to put in the work necessary to make himself the best QB he can be. In my ideal world over this next off season we get a story about how Jones spent a week at Brady's house talking football.

 

[Uptown]

Anyone see Darnold's play yesterday for the Panthers or the week before? Looked like a legit NFL QB.. Getting away from the Jets was his best career move so far....

Matt Rhule/Joe Brady & CMC will do that for you..

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Thanks for this.

This should be required reading for all Pats fans. So much to see and understand about the creation of a pass play and all the moving parts that are required to make a successful play and all the subtilties a QB is required to know....eventually. I particularly like how Mac's pump fake, which was lauded my many including myself, actually could have brought the primary defender INTO the play. Really good stuff.

Plus looking at all the yardage Mac left on the field in this game reminded me of this fact. Mac is CLEARLY the most NFL ready QB of all the rookies. BUT being NFL ready does not mean you hit the ground fully formed. The learning curve is great and high and there will be more of the misses before they become hits. The Jets game proves its not a linear progression for rookies. So much to learn.

Here's Lazar, with a similar (albeit a bit less sophisticated) breakdown of Mac's throws against Miami:

 

[Brewskies]

For all of you that spent the time dissecting and analyzing this game with side remarks about game 1, thank you, I enjoyed the read and agree with more of the thoughts. This is truly a team in progress from the very new to the NFL to the experienced but new to the Pats. I don't expect a win in game 4 but I hope we come together to put on a good show.

Again, thanks to all of you and especially those that stayed up late for the recap.

 

[Pats2000]

I wonder if some of the protection issues are due to Mac not setting the protection correctly at the line? I get some of the stuff is noticeably bad blocking, but there seems to that on one or two occasions per drive a defender or two come in freely completely untouched. Not excusing the O-Line but wondering out loud if this isn't some of his growing pains. Quite literally for himself.

He was really good at setting the protection with the Fins, you have to wonder if lack of film on Jets D rushing strategy because new coaching staff threw him on the protections.

 

[Pats2000]

Thanks for this.

This should be required reading for all Pats fans. So much to see and understand about the creation of a pass play and all the moving parts that are required to make a successful play and all the subtilties a QB is required to know....eventually. I particularly like how Mac's pump fake, which was lauded my many including myself, actually could have brought the primary defender INTO the play. Really good stuff.

Plus looking at all the yardage Mac left on the field in this game reminded me of this fact. Mac is CLEARLY the most NFL ready QB of all the rookies. BUT being NFL ready does not mean you hit the ground fully formed. The learning curve is great and high and there will be more of the misses before they become hits. The Jets game proves its not a linear progression for rookies. So much to learn.

He was in the Alabama system for 3 years before he stepped in to play games. He's had OTA's, a training camp, and 2 games. I would say averaging 230 yards a game, no pics, and a 73% completion ratio, good for 6th in the league is a dream come true.

Yes he's taking the short stuff, that's ok. As he develops that connection with his receivers and verifies that what he thought he saw with eyes during the game is the same as what's on film afterwards, he will trust himself to take the deep shots without risking a turnover.

 

[Thelonious]

I agree with all of this except insofar as it can read as supporting the Wiggy-level (deeply stupid) notion that now is the time in Mac's development where the team ought to push him to "stretch the field." Dumb ideas are easy to find in the sportschat universe, but this one is a real pip.

 

[Pats2000]

Secondary is good but would be even better with Gilmore.
Damien Harris is a beast.
Onwenu is a top10 RT.
We have 2 good (under-utilized) TEs and Jacobi Meyers has the talent to be a 1000 yard receiver
BB is still the goat.

Anything else before you keep ignoring the bad OLine, red zone play calling, and run defense ??

I'm not ignoring the Oline, it needs work. Run defense may have given up some yards to burn clock while trying to keep personnel on the field to limit the big play. They seemed content to keep them at 4 or 5 yards every 30 seconds or so. Mac is a rookie, red zone compresses the field, he's trying to sort out what he's seeing from NFL defenses. Chill tf out, it will get there

 

[Pats2000]

Who knows if the extremely conservative approach is more coaching or more Mac's decisions on the field. My thought now after watching some of that all 22 film is that Mac is obviously getting a heavy dose of film watching, so he is seeing all of that. On the field, it looks like he is going through the reads and then hitting the short option or check down. So, while he is not throwing the more aggressive routes, he is getting to see them develop and then afterwards sync up what he is seeing on the field with what the film shows, hopefully developing a good feel for what "open" looks like in this league. He may just be firing on all cylinders by the time we open up the offense.

Just said the same thing before I read this

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I'm not ignoring the Oline, it needs work. Run defense may have given up some yards to burn clock while trying to keep personnel on the field to limit the big play. They seemed content to keep them at 4 or 5 yards every 30 seconds or so. Mac is a rookie, red zone compresses the field, he's trying to sort out what he's seeing from NFL defenses. Chill tf out, it will get there

You were the instigator, maybe focus on the points being made. Red zone issues have persisted for 3 straight years, the RT is a huge issue, and run defense is a problem

.

 

[Pats2000]

You were the instigator, maybe focus on the points being made. Red zone issues have persisted for 3 straight years, the RT is a huge issue, and run defense is a problem

.

RZ was an issue in 2019 due to lack of roster talent and terrible Oline
RZ issue in 2020 was Newton's inability to get off his first read.
RZ issue now is a rookie QB who has played in all of 2 games.

Were there major RZ problems in 2007 and 2012 - 2018? Because it's the same guy at OC

 

[Thelonious]

RZ was an issue in 2019 due to lack of roster talent and terrible Oline
RZ issue in 2020 was Newton's inability to get off his first read.
RZ issue now is a rookie QB who has played in all of 2 games.

Were there major RZ problems in 2007 and 2012 - 2018? Because it's the same guy at OC

It is imprecise, or incomplete, to attribute the problem (such as it is) to "the rookie quarterback." There is a game plan, there are coaches, he has instructions from those coaches, there are ten other players on the field. Let's jack this chat up to an adult level, shall we?