- Joined
- Jul 11, 2005
- Messages
- 15,518
- Reaction score
- 27,509
I've been having a number of thoughts pop into my head this week so I thought I'd get them out on paper before an aneurysm develops. 
1. The previous game in October has almost NO relevance to this game. BOTH teams are far different at this point of the season. There is one factor that DOES come into play (though I haven't heard it mentioned yet). Back in 2001 the Pats faced similar speed when they first faced the Rams in the middle. of that year. They lost the game (at home), but I remember that after the
superbowl, someone made the comment that playing them earlier was important because they actually got to see that speed on the field. It is so much better to see that in real time vs on tape. So when the superbowl came about, they were much better prepared to deal with it. (and they did). To in this small regard playing them early in the year helps.
Lots of comments on THill's speed. Incredible receiver, BUT at least now they have seen that speed up close, and HOPEFULLY with be better prepared to deal with it. IIRC, often when they play a receiver with Hill's kind of speed, they practice with the scout team's WR's 2 or 3 yd off side to start the play to simulate just how fast Hill can get on top of you
2. The comments that the Pats don't do well on the road in the playoffs are also irrelevant. NO team does well on the road, especially when playing the best teams in the league. IIRC the Pats are .500 on the road in the playoffs. That's not bad actually. But in the end when a road team wins on the road at THIS point, it's an upset.
3 I doubt we will see the same kind of defense vs KC. Patrick Mahomes is NOT Phillip Rivers. Rivers was a stationary target, Mahomes is most definitely not. If the Pats are going to keep KC under 30, the Pats are going to HAVE to duplicate what Bill did to the Bills back in the day. Lots of yards few points. I
I suspect KC will get some run yards on Sunday. Prior to the Bills superbowl, BB reportedly told his defense that in order to win, they will have to allow Thomas to get his 100 yds, because they weren't going to beat them running the ball. Again, the yards, vs points concept.
4. On Paper one would think the Pats have no chance. KC has all pros littered across their roster to go along with the 2 most electric offensive players in the league. Two premium pass rushers. (Houston and Ford) One premium DT (CJones) Also a premium CB and S (if Berry plays)
On the other hand the Pats had only one elite player this year in Gilmore (CB). Not even the most rabid Pats fans can think Brady and Gronk had "elite years. We have no elite rushers. We have no elite DT's. We have no elite OLmen. We have no elite receivers. But football is great because because it is a game where the sum can be greater than the individual parts.
5. But while Brady had a very un-Brady like regular season, this is the playoffs, and playoff Brady in game one gave us EXACTLY what we've come to expect. Now that we've seen that, there is every reason to hope that we can see more of the same. Plus, while some may hang on to an argument that Brady isn't the GOAT, no one argues that he isn't the best bad weather QB of all time. And Sunday is going to be a bad weather game.
As for Gronk, last week was a positive sign for him as well. Not only did he play more than 90% of the snaps, he gave just a glimpse of what kind of impact Gronk can make on that 25yd run. THIS wasn't the Gronk who couldn't get an additional yd for a first down a few weeks back. THIS was the Gronk who blew up DB's and turn a 5 yd reception into a 25 yd gain. Don't be surprised to see Gronk play a more significant role in the passing game this week. No need to save him now. If he's going to retire, let him go out with a BANG!
5. One of the bigger keys in this game will be the battle between the KC receivers against the Pats secondary, which is the strength of the defense.. It should be noted that in that game JCJackson wasn't a factor with JJones getting all of the #3 CB snaps.
Having Jackson playing like a first round rookie at this point, and Jones playing better, the Pats are going to have the DB depth to be VERY creative this week. Here are some combinations we might see with the Pats line up man to man.
I don't really like the Gilmore/Hill match up. KC can do a lot to get Hill free releases off the LOS, and Hill has too much speed for any CB. So how about this, Put Gilmore on Watkins and erase him. Put Jones on Hill (he's our quickest guy) with help over the top. As for Kelce, rather than Chung, how about putting the 6'1 Jackson on him and Chung work on their RB's or slot guys. Just a thought
6. Key to that secondary has been the development of JC Jackson. He was an UDFA rookie who is playing as well as ANY of the 1st round rookie CB's. Still raw. Still prone to penalties. But he's always in tight coverage and most of the time the completions he gives up require either great throws or great catchers. It's like Malcolm Butler part 2. Only Jackson is 6'1 and strong.
7. I think as a fan running up to this game, the key element here is semantics. I think it is unrealistic to expect that the Pats WILL win this football game on Sunday night. KC has just has too many advantages as we discussed. I think rather we should focus on the fact that the Pats CAN with this game. It's a subtle distinction, but an important one.
This might be the worst talent this team has had since 2009. And like 2009, it was a team getting ready for a serious reboot in the off season. The team has 11 or 12 draft picks with 6 in the first 3 rounds. Wynn, Dawson, and Bently all had redshirt years and will be coming back. Plus when the dust settles the Pats will end up with enough cap space to add a significant FA or two. So the future DOES look bright and those who want to signal the end of this run are going to be bitterly disappointed......AGAIN.
But back to THIS year's flawed edition. In some ways this team is like the 2011 team which had an awesome offense, but a defense that was just horrible talent wise. In case you forgot, this was the Earthind Moreland/Sergio Brown era defense, which needed a significant cameo's by Julian Edelman. It was the defense that was aced out in the final game of the season from being dead last in total D. This wasn't a no-name defense, it was a NO BODY defense. But it was also a defense that was well coached and smart, and ended up playing well enough to get to a superbowl, and win it if the offense had played to their potential and we got a few bounces. (but we all know that story)
This years defense, and especially the secondary, is far superior to that one, and like most of our teams is playing it's best ball now. Now no one is likely to stop the KC offense (under 20), it could very well slow it down enough to make this a one score game into the 4th quarter. And if THAT's the case, I'll take my chances with Tom Brady and this coaching staff to execute under pressure and win a tight game.
8. A few things I was thinking we MIGHT see,
a. More 3-4 looks with High as an rushing OLB
b. More zone defenses, since with Mahomes running around back there, zone D's are more effective if he is running the ball.
c. Fewer blitzes, but lots of 4 man stunts, like we saw on the Flowers sack.
d. More targets to Gronk - If I'm the Chiefs, I'm doubling Julian and James, and daring anyone else to beat me.
e. Sony in the passing game. Right now the Pats have a strong tendency that when Sony is in the game, its a run, and when White is in the game it's a pass. While I don't doubt the latter will remain a fact, they CAN break that tendency by getting Sony more involved in the passing game.
f. This week's inactive list is going to be a very interesting one and one that will tell us a lot about how the Pats are going to try and play defense this week. Claybourn, Shelton, Rivers, etc. Who knows who is going to play or sit. A good topic for further discussion,
9. We are going to hear all week a LOT of reasons why KC will win the game, and most of them are legitimate. However here is a list of reasons to think we ARE going to win this game, DESPITE all the advantages KC has.
a. Weather - It could slow down both teams as the ball is going to be hard to throw, and it won't carry as well. Same in the kicking game. Strange to think that FG's beyond 45 yds are going to be very problematic. A lower scoring game is to the Pats advantage. Ball security is going to be key here because of the weather. The Pats have been very good so far this season.
b. As mentioned before, the Pats have the best bad weather QB in history, (as well as the GOAT in all forms of weather). Mahomes hasn't played in this kind of weather before. It will be interesting to see how he performs. He played well last week in poor weather.
c. Andy Reid is an excellent HC, but he isn't BB and that is a distinct advantage
d. We are healthy....and have been for most of the season (relatively) It seemed that most of our bad injury luck happened before September was over. IIRC by the time the season started we had 8 guys on IR and then lost Burkhead and Hill very early, So the year started out really poorly, but since then the only mid-season loss was Eric Rowe and we got back Rex. I can't remember a season with this few in-season injuries.
OK, that enough - add you comments and thoughts
1. The previous game in October has almost NO relevance to this game. BOTH teams are far different at this point of the season. There is one factor that DOES come into play (though I haven't heard it mentioned yet). Back in 2001 the Pats faced similar speed when they first faced the Rams in the middle. of that year. They lost the game (at home), but I remember that after the
superbowl, someone made the comment that playing them earlier was important because they actually got to see that speed on the field. It is so much better to see that in real time vs on tape. So when the superbowl came about, they were much better prepared to deal with it. (and they did). To in this small regard playing them early in the year helps.
Lots of comments on THill's speed. Incredible receiver, BUT at least now they have seen that speed up close, and HOPEFULLY with be better prepared to deal with it. IIRC, often when they play a receiver with Hill's kind of speed, they practice with the scout team's WR's 2 or 3 yd off side to start the play to simulate just how fast Hill can get on top of you
2. The comments that the Pats don't do well on the road in the playoffs are also irrelevant. NO team does well on the road, especially when playing the best teams in the league. IIRC the Pats are .500 on the road in the playoffs. That's not bad actually. But in the end when a road team wins on the road at THIS point, it's an upset.
3 I doubt we will see the same kind of defense vs KC. Patrick Mahomes is NOT Phillip Rivers. Rivers was a stationary target, Mahomes is most definitely not. If the Pats are going to keep KC under 30, the Pats are going to HAVE to duplicate what Bill did to the Bills back in the day. Lots of yards few points. I
I suspect KC will get some run yards on Sunday. Prior to the Bills superbowl, BB reportedly told his defense that in order to win, they will have to allow Thomas to get his 100 yds, because they weren't going to beat them running the ball. Again, the yards, vs points concept.
4. On Paper one would think the Pats have no chance. KC has all pros littered across their roster to go along with the 2 most electric offensive players in the league. Two premium pass rushers. (Houston and Ford) One premium DT (CJones) Also a premium CB and S (if Berry plays)
On the other hand the Pats had only one elite player this year in Gilmore (CB). Not even the most rabid Pats fans can think Brady and Gronk had "elite years. We have no elite rushers. We have no elite DT's. We have no elite OLmen. We have no elite receivers. But football is great because because it is a game where the sum can be greater than the individual parts.
5. But while Brady had a very un-Brady like regular season, this is the playoffs, and playoff Brady in game one gave us EXACTLY what we've come to expect. Now that we've seen that, there is every reason to hope that we can see more of the same. Plus, while some may hang on to an argument that Brady isn't the GOAT, no one argues that he isn't the best bad weather QB of all time. And Sunday is going to be a bad weather game.
As for Gronk, last week was a positive sign for him as well. Not only did he play more than 90% of the snaps, he gave just a glimpse of what kind of impact Gronk can make on that 25yd run. THIS wasn't the Gronk who couldn't get an additional yd for a first down a few weeks back. THIS was the Gronk who blew up DB's and turn a 5 yd reception into a 25 yd gain. Don't be surprised to see Gronk play a more significant role in the passing game this week. No need to save him now. If he's going to retire, let him go out with a BANG!
5. One of the bigger keys in this game will be the battle between the KC receivers against the Pats secondary, which is the strength of the defense.. It should be noted that in that game JCJackson wasn't a factor with JJones getting all of the #3 CB snaps.
Having Jackson playing like a first round rookie at this point, and Jones playing better, the Pats are going to have the DB depth to be VERY creative this week. Here are some combinations we might see with the Pats line up man to man.
I don't really like the Gilmore/Hill match up. KC can do a lot to get Hill free releases off the LOS, and Hill has too much speed for any CB. So how about this, Put Gilmore on Watkins and erase him. Put Jones on Hill (he's our quickest guy) with help over the top. As for Kelce, rather than Chung, how about putting the 6'1 Jackson on him and Chung work on their RB's or slot guys. Just a thought
6. Key to that secondary has been the development of JC Jackson. He was an UDFA rookie who is playing as well as ANY of the 1st round rookie CB's. Still raw. Still prone to penalties. But he's always in tight coverage and most of the time the completions he gives up require either great throws or great catchers. It's like Malcolm Butler part 2. Only Jackson is 6'1 and strong.
7. I think as a fan running up to this game, the key element here is semantics. I think it is unrealistic to expect that the Pats WILL win this football game on Sunday night. KC has just has too many advantages as we discussed. I think rather we should focus on the fact that the Pats CAN with this game. It's a subtle distinction, but an important one.
This might be the worst talent this team has had since 2009. And like 2009, it was a team getting ready for a serious reboot in the off season. The team has 11 or 12 draft picks with 6 in the first 3 rounds. Wynn, Dawson, and Bently all had redshirt years and will be coming back. Plus when the dust settles the Pats will end up with enough cap space to add a significant FA or two. So the future DOES look bright and those who want to signal the end of this run are going to be bitterly disappointed......AGAIN.
But back to THIS year's flawed edition. In some ways this team is like the 2011 team which had an awesome offense, but a defense that was just horrible talent wise. In case you forgot, this was the Earthind Moreland/Sergio Brown era defense, which needed a significant cameo's by Julian Edelman. It was the defense that was aced out in the final game of the season from being dead last in total D.
This wasn't a no-name defense, it was a NO BODY defense. But it was also a defense that was well coached and smart, and ended up playing well enough to get to a superbowl, and win it if the offense had played to their potential and we got a few bounces. (but we all know that story)This years defense, and especially the secondary, is far superior to that one, and like most of our teams is playing it's best ball now. Now no one is likely to stop the KC offense (under 20), it could very well slow it down enough to make this a one score game into the 4th quarter. And if THAT's the case, I'll take my chances with Tom Brady and this coaching staff to execute under pressure and win a tight game.
8. A few things I was thinking we MIGHT see,
a. More 3-4 looks with High as an rushing OLB
b. More zone defenses, since with Mahomes running around back there, zone D's are more effective if he is running the ball.
c. Fewer blitzes, but lots of 4 man stunts, like we saw on the Flowers sack.
d. More targets to Gronk - If I'm the Chiefs, I'm doubling Julian and James, and daring anyone else to beat me.
e. Sony in the passing game. Right now the Pats have a strong tendency that when Sony is in the game, its a run, and when White is in the game it's a pass. While I don't doubt the latter will remain a fact, they CAN break that tendency by getting Sony more involved in the passing game.
f. This week's inactive list is going to be a very interesting one and one that will tell us a lot about how the Pats are going to try and play defense this week. Claybourn, Shelton, Rivers, etc. Who knows who is going to play or sit. A good topic for further discussion,
9. We are going to hear all week a LOT of reasons why KC will win the game, and most of them are legitimate. However here is a list of reasons to think we ARE going to win this game, DESPITE all the advantages KC has.
a. Weather - It could slow down both teams as the ball is going to be hard to throw, and it won't carry as well. Same in the kicking game. Strange to think that FG's beyond 45 yds are going to be very problematic. A lower scoring game is to the Pats advantage. Ball security is going to be key here because of the weather. The Pats have been very good so far this season.
b. As mentioned before, the Pats have the best bad weather QB in history, (as well as the GOAT in all forms of weather). Mahomes hasn't played in this kind of weather before. It will be interesting to see how he performs. He played well last week in poor weather.
c. Andy Reid is an excellent HC, but he isn't BB and that is a distinct advantage
d. We are healthy....and have been for most of the season (relatively) It seemed that most of our bad injury luck happened before September was over. IIRC by the time the season started we had 8 guys on IR and then lost Burkhead and Hill very early, So the year started out really poorly, but since then the only mid-season loss was Eric Rowe and we got back Rex. I can't remember a season with this few in-season injuries.
OK, that enough - add you comments and thoughts
