How will labor negotiations effect the draft?

[hughthehand]

In listening to some media's opinion that Luck's decision to bypass the draft this year could cost him a boatload of money, I was curious if underclassmen that are potential 1st rounders might be persuaded by this line of thinking.

From what I could tell, many NFL Draft Commentators feel like a new labor agreement is going to have some type of rookie Pool or Cap very different from what we have seen in the past. Initially I was thinking that the threat of a lockout would make more underclassmen re-think their decision to go Pro and be more likely to stay in school.

Do you think the threat of smaller signing bonuses and salaries for Rookies will push out a lot of the Top Underclassmen talent, making 2011 an unusually deep draft in the top rounds?

Edit: My Poll question got cut off and I am too much of a newb to figure out how to edit the poll, so any advice is welcome

 

[ExeterSportsGuy]

I'm afraid Luck's decision will create a domino effect for other underclassmen. I'm HOPING it doesn't as we stand to do well in this draft. There was the possibility of 4-5 QBs going before pick #17, not so sure now.

 

[Metaphors]

It has already happened. The only significant underclassmen that are returning to school so far:

- QB Luck: Total surprise and he may change his mind if Harbaugh leaves
- RB James: Smallish RB but needs more involvement in passing and return game to raise draft stock.
- WR Broyles: Good move to return since this is an abnormally deep WR class
- OT Reynolds: 1st round talent but not 1st round results. Needed another year.

Everyone else of consequence has declared. Outside of Luck, the other 3 weren't 1st round guys and so their exposure to the CBA changes would be minimal. The all had good reason to return to school to try and sneak in the 1st round in 2012.

 

[MaineMan]

In listening to some media's opinion that Luck's decision to bypass the draft this year could cost him a boatload of money, I was curious if underclassmen that are potential 1st rounders might be persuaded by this line of thinking.

From what I could tell, many NFL Draft Commentators feel like a new labor agreement is going to have some type of rookie Pool or Cap very different from what we have seen in the past. Initially I was thinking that the threat of a lockout would make more underclassmen re-think their decision to go Pro and be more likely to stay in school.

Do you think the threat of smaller signing bonuses and salaries for Rookies will push out a lot of the Top Underclassmen talent, making 2011 an unusually deep draft in the top rounds?

This might be offset by the threat of a lockout.

Seems to me that the biggest rookie salary inflation has been with top 10 picks and less so with later picks. So, I'm guessing that a rookie cap will address that proportionately - maybe, for example, taking 50% off the top 10, 30% off the next 10, 15% off the guys at the end of the first, etc. (these percentages are just wild guesses). By the time you get to the end of the 2nd round, there might be very little difference. So, for financial considerations to outweigh the possibility of not playing football, PLUS not finishing school, it seems to me that a prospect would need to be pretty well convinced he's likely to go high in this draft.

Not that there aren't, obviously, other considerations in favor of coming out - e.g., injury potential, being passed in the 2012 ratings by other guys, coaching changes at school, age (a few of these juniors are already 25).

Still, I don't think that the threat of a rookie cap by itself CAN make this draft "unusually" deep in the top rounds. To conclude that, you'd have to believe (A) that this draft class would be very high quality if NOBODY came out, AND (B) that the majority of the underclassmen who could declare are also very high quality. Personally, I don't think either of those things is true.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

The new CBA is anticipated to have some form of check on the top salary/bonuses a rookie can earn in his initial contract; however, there appears to be debate as to which draft class this new CBA would apply to ...

As Metaphors noted, there appears to the usual number of underclassmen declaring with five days remaining before the deadline. NEPatriotsdraft.com's list has around 35 declared underclassmen, with one bowl game remaining, I believe the record is mid-high 40's.

Due to the senior class being weakened by early declarations in previous drafts, this class doesn't appear to be that top heavy across the board. There is some strength on the DL and at CB & WR; RB & LB appear average; OL, QB, TE, & S are looking weak. Overall, it looks pretty normal to me.