How well do you think the Pats draft?

[JMC00]

Belichick doesn't look at the draft like draftniks do. He doesn't have binkies, he doesn't go off of "random guy's" big board and just because you think it's a need doesn't mean Belichick does which makes you wrong... Yet that's what he gets graded on by armchair GM IDIOTS

 

[slam]

So the answer is... the Pats are damn good at drafting despite the sentiment around the league that they aren't. Attached is a screencap of the summary screen which tells the story.

Judging by CarAv, the Pats get 7 A's, 2 B's, 2 C's, 4 D's, and 2 F's.

Judging by DrAv, the Pats get 7 A's, 4 B's, 1 C, 4 D's, and 1 F.

I haven't graded out any other team, but that has to easily top 5. I did something like this a year or two ago, and found that on a per pick basis they're only slightly above average, but cumulatively they were 2nd or 3rd in that time period. Wheedling to get extra picks pays off.

The bad stretches are 2006-8 which got D, F, and D in DrAv, and 2012-4 which got C, D, and C in DrAv. Every other year got an A or B, a top 12 result, in DrAv.

I tried to upload the whole spreadsheet but the system didn't allow me to do so. If anyone wants it I can share it. Just send me a PM. It may take me a day or two.

 

[Uptown]

Thought this was interesting...

 

[jmt57]

Just thought of something, Where we may end up with very few picks and we have tons of cap space, does it make "economic" sense to pay higher dollar to UFA to make signing here more desirable or are those numbers collectively locked in by the league wink/wink? I know baring preseason injuries there are not a lot of roster spots open, but more competition in camp is the best way to find the players and why the Patriots have done well with UFA.

I know there is a cap on signing bonuses, but I don't believe there is a cap on salaries. Signing bonuses obviously represent guaranteed money, but I'm unsure if salaries (or portions of) can be guaranteed. I doubt that is the case because that would seem like a way to circumvent the signing bonus cap.

Edit: Here is some information I found. It's actually part of the CBA. Also looks like I was incorrect in regards to guaranteed salaries.

ITP Glossary: Undrafted Free Agent - Inside The Pylon

The Collective Bargaining Agreement limits contracts for these players to three years and created a cap on the signing bonus money teams can offer (around $85,000 total for all UDFA), which means that the recruiting of these players takes on a different look than most free agency periods. Some teams split the bonus pool and target five-10 players with equal bonuses, while others eschew bonuses altogether. The final clump of teams find ways to circumvent the rules, guaranteeing base salaries to incentivize the player.​

Note: when you say 'UFA", I am assuming that you are referring to an undrafted rookie free agent and not an unrestricted free agent.

 

[willard]

Thanks for that and I am remembering the OL who Dallas picked up after he went undrafted while a legal charge hung over him. His max salary was limited.

Yes I was referring to Undrafted Rookie Free Agents, URFA

 

[jboston19]

I think they do a good job of identifying traits that may develope well under their coaching. They also give themselves several extra shots through trades that help. The draft is a crapshoot and they do pretty well at it.

 

[DW Toys]

I just simply added up the totals. If Team A has only 5 picks and Team B has 9 picks and they both cumulatively earn 200 AV, this method calls it a tie. This is counting hits, not coming up with a batting average.

Cousins,
17% average for the League success rate, after a fair term of three years. This is for successful picks that are Pro Bowl players, starters and valued back ups or special teamers. All the rest are square pegs in a round hole by their Drafted Team (sometimes not the Players fault), lack of desire or talent that was miscalculated, off the field entanglements that we as Fans might not ever be privy to, or injury and they are out of the League. Some that are held as purely roster fillers and can be replaced year to year, they do not count (JAGS).

Most of the bad Teams will have more players making the Team to affect the curve, but if you are a consistent with an annual 7 Draft picks, two per Team is about right that fit Pro Bowl worthy, starter or valued back up.

Good Teams have less holes to fill and Draft later so there is an art to find one or two guys per year (Pats, Steelers etc), while bad Teams (Browns) have loaded Draft classes at various positions with many players competing for many spots. On those Teams, younger players dominate their rosters hoping to hit on the right combination.

In a yearly rotation year to year to year, that is about six upgraded roster spots per Team, per year from the Draft.

In my opinion the Pats will have a certain trait that they seek in a Draftee that is not the norm over pure talent, and their Drafted player is over-Drafted and washes out. These have become know to us as some of those Pats Draft day "head scratchers". Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson come to mind. Bill saw a trait he thought was above and beyond any talent Drafted after them, and this is why we are all human.

I rate BB as one of the best FA and Trade evaluators in the NFL. Not for the top ones but for lower and mid tier.

The Pats Drafting is inconsistent and it would be fair to say a "C" over say 10 years.

What he does best to mitigate this grade, is he will blow out a bad Draft pick without remorse.

To me, this Pats FA season was exciting and fruitful. We know much more how these additions will (can) perform. A rookie, not matter how high? Not so much.

Tonite Teams and their Fans are going into Plilly thinking their Team does a 180 from prior years. It happens (Cowboys) who were 1 of 32 Teams that really had a remarkable build out that nay or may not be sustainable. Those odds were like 3.1% they had a year like 2016. But maybe it is better than "Power Ball"?
DW Toys

 

[Huckleberry1]

They average picking 28th per round per draft, no one else is any where near that over the last 10 years, it's a huge disadvantage yet they are still the winningest team in the league over that period of time. Overall they draft very well, especially when you figure in their trades using picks and UDFA's. You can't be this good for this long if you don't draft well.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This is the Football equivalent of asking "What do you think Bill Gates' GPA was during his two years at Harvard?" I'm sure it's an interesting number to debate, but it's really more a reflection on Harvard than it is on him if it was anything other than 4.0+.

But, if we really must do the math, the answer, in proper notation, is:
(14 + 11 + 7 + 5) ^ Googolplex

[Those who don't know that that means the sum of 14 Division Titles, 11 AFCCG's, 7 SB Appearances and five Lombardis, to the power of Googolplex...well, they need to go to Ernie Adams' remedial Summer School.]