I just simply added up the totals. If Team A has only 5 picks and Team B has 9 picks and they both cumulatively earn 200 AV, this method calls it a tie. This is counting hits, not coming up with a batting average.
Cousins,
17% average for the League success rate, after a fair term of three years. This is for successful picks that are Pro Bowl players, starters and valued back ups or special teamers. All the rest are square pegs in a round hole by their Drafted Team (sometimes not the Players fault), lack of desire or talent that was miscalculated, off the field entanglements that we as Fans might not ever be privy to, or injury and they are out of the League. Some that are held as purely roster fillers and can be replaced year to year, they do not count (JAGS).
Most of the bad Teams will have more players making the Team to affect the curve, but if you are a consistent with an annual 7 Draft picks, two per Team is about right that fit Pro Bowl worthy, starter or valued back up.
Good Teams have less holes to fill and Draft later so there is an art to find one or two guys per year (Pats, Steelers etc), while bad Teams (Browns) have loaded Draft classes at various positions with many players competing for many spots. On those Teams, younger players dominate their rosters hoping to hit on the right combination.
In a yearly rotation year to year to year, that is about six upgraded roster spots per Team, per year from the Draft.
In my opinion the Pats will have a certain trait that they seek in a Draftee that is not the norm over pure talent, and their Drafted player is over-Drafted and washes out. These have become know to us as some of those Pats Draft day "head scratchers". Jordan Richards and Tavon Wilson come to mind. Bill saw a trait he thought was above and beyond any talent Drafted after them, and this is why we are all human.
I rate BB as one of the best FA and Trade evaluators in the NFL. Not for the top ones but for lower and mid tier.
The Pats Drafting is inconsistent and it would be fair to say a "C" over say 10 years.
What he does best to mitigate this grade, is he will blow out a bad Draft pick without remorse.
To me, this Pats FA season was exciting and fruitful. We know much more how these additions will (can) perform. A rookie, not matter how high? Not so much.
Tonite Teams and their Fans are going into Plilly thinking their Team does a 180 from prior years. It happens (Cowboys) who were 1 of 32 Teams that really had a remarkable build out that nay or may not be sustainable. Those odds were like 3.1% they had a year like 2016. But maybe it is better than "Power Ball"?
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