How the Pats should attack Atlanta's offense

[BobDigital]

Lets look at the best defenses Atlanta has faced and times they where contain.

Seattle #3 Defense gave up 24 Points (36 without Thomas and other injuries in the playoffs)
Denver #4 Defense gave up 23 points
KC #7 gave up 28 points
Philly #12 gave up 15 points
AZ #14 gave up 38
TB #15 gave up 24 and 43


So it seems clear after Philly it became hit or miss to contain this Offense. However of the top 4 Ds they faced (in the top 12) none surrendered 30 points or more. When they don't score 30 they lose at a staggering pace (1-5) so that is the key number. Also it should be mentioned Denver, Seattle, Philly were all away games and only KC in which they scored the most was home.

I will say the fact the Eagles held them to 15 points is probably an aberration. They no doubt had a bad day and can not hope for that again. However 23-28 points like 3 other top 10s Ds does seems within our grasp. (and I don't think scoring 36 on an injured Seattle the 2nd time means a ton).

So what did they do to hold them to this key range of under 30? Well to be honest i have not broken down these games yet but in the next week I will look at all 3 closely. I encourage other fans to as well as they matter more for our purposes than the playoff games they had. The key to limiting them is in those 3 games in particular I think.

For now though i can say i think we have some players that translate this well and they have lost most of their games vs teams with good Ds bodes well for us.

 

[denverpatsfan]

The Philly game was early in the season before Ryan mastered the offense. So yes the other 3 games will hold the answers. Great post. Looking forward to your analysis.

 

[FourierSeries]

Their RG has been a huge liability for them at times this season. The Pats need to exploit that and abuse him all game long in order to get interior pressure on Ryan. I imagine they'll also try to do some of what they did vs Baltimore and Denver by attempting to confuse their OL with DL shifts.

 

[mosi]

The Philly game was early in the season before Ryan mastered the offense. So yes the other 3 games will hold the answers. Great post. Looking forward to your analysis.

The Philly game was week 10 and the Eagles absolutely throttled them. Living in Philly, I watched the game and the Eagles ran the ball well and kept putting the Falcons in 3rd and long situations. May have been nerves also as Ryan is from the Philly area and mostly likely had family come to watch the game.

Nobody thought the Eagles had a chance in that game either (in Philly!).

 

[BobDigital]

The Philly game was early in the season before Ryan mastered the offense. So yes the other 3 games will hold the answers. Great post. Looking forward to your analysis.

Worth noting that in 3 of 4 of these games Ryan throw 1 int. He didn't in Denver but we held down by that D anyway.

In Seattle the Falcons were really held in check pretty well. It was 2 plays in particular that almost lost it for Seattle.

36 yards down the sideline to the open Jones and 46 yards down the same sideline open for Toilolo the TE. He caught it at the 25 but was so wide open he managed to spin around almost losing his balance and run for the TDs. Both players where hit just as crossing the end zone. 2 huge break downs on the protection.

Against the Broncos 2 other key plays lead to points. A dump off 5 yard pass to a RB turned into 45 yards a 31 yard pass down the seam to a RB after a turn over for a TD. They also hit Coleman for 50 yards or so which turned into 3 but it was over by that points.

Against KC a PI for 40 yards got them a FG. An interception got returned for a TD. A turnover got them another FG. A short pass to Toilolo got them 42 yards setting them up for another TD. They only drived for 1 TD without help of a huge play or penalty.

Point of the story. It seems to me when they play good Ds they tend to look for that big play to score and without it they have a hard time drving. In fact in all 3 of these games I think they only had 2 long drives without a player over 20 or so yards in it that resulted in a TD.

So on a quick look the key is to get back and make them drive. Though he hasn't this year Ryan generally throws Ints at a decent rate. GB dropped some. We need to make them drive and try to force mistakes. That is what our D does best though.

Just a quick look at the highlights. I think it is something to keep in mind as we go deeper into this.

 

[Ring 6]

It's a team effort. If the patriots get out to a lead and are playing from ahead then its a different game than a back and forth or playing from behind situation.
Yesterday for example the game reached the point somewhere around 20-9 or 27-9 where it felt over. Pittsburgh could have scored on every drive and still lost because they could stop us.
This game could be similar. If we play good d early, get some stops and the offense is rolling it up on their D, it may not matter how many points they end up with.

As far as how to play them, it's a balanced offense and you really have to play strong team defense and not give them big plays. They will make plays but we need to make them make many. I would see a conservative defensive game plan but one that gets aggressive in spots including taking chances in 3rd down.

 

[The Brandon Five]

Their RG has been a huge liability for them at times this season. The Pats need to exploit that and abuse him all game long in order to get interior pressure on Ryan. I imagine they'll also try to do some of what they did vs Baltimore and Denver by attempting to confuse their OL with DL shifts.

The left guard (Levitre) had two false starts in the NFCCG. At home.

 

[mosslost]

We just need to score lots of points. duh I'm captain of the obvious....

But seriously, just score lots of points

 

[BlueThunder]

Just score one point more than Atlanta

 

[BobDigital]

Just watched a condensed version of the Seattle/Atlanta game. Here is what i took from it on the defensive end.

First drive - Atlanta goes from the 20 to 50 then stalls. 2 stuffed runs (one run blitz was involved too) then Seattle clogged the middle of the field and hit a WR as the pass was getting to him near the sticks and almost picked it off. That was a very patient get back kind of defense.

Second drive - Atlanta starts at the 8. Tight coverage. Ryan missed a short pass. 2nd down short pass immediately tackled for 4. 3rd down Ryan held on to the ball an extra beat and pressure got to him. Knocked the ball out. Seahawks recovered. This was all done with a 4 man rush. Also people hit WRs at the line on 3rd down. I don't think Ryan had much to throw to anyway.

Third drive - Atlanta starts at the 21 and gets to the 42 on a short run plus personal foul. 1st and 10 sack for 7 yards (over the right guard who is the weakness of that line). 2nd and 17 sack for 0 yards. No one open quickly and Ryan kind of panics. This is more on him than the pressure. 3rd down is a dump off pass to a RB to just get some yards.

Forth drive - Atlanta starts at the 33. Play action both LBs bit hard. Atlanta to the 47. 1st and 10 Atlanta up the middle for 4. 2nd and 6 Atlanta with a pass to the sideline for 5.5 yards (CB played off a bit but got him short. 3rd and .5 yards. Run up the middle is stuffed but a QB sneak gets it on 4th. 4 yard run and a play action pass on the sideline gets them to the 29 (Jones) over the middle to Jones to the 15. Missed a pass down the sideline for a TD on first. Attempts same pass for incomplete on second. On 3rd the LG is beat in a 5 man blitz and pass incomplete. This is perhaps the most important drive for the Pats in the game. It shows Atlanta getting inpatient at the very end of a long drive with a FG.

Fifth drive - Atlanta starts at the 25. False start makes it 1st and 15. A run stop makes it 2nd and 16, Ryan takes a quick look down field but with nothing there he decides a short pass to a RB who dances and then cuts back and is brought down makes it 3rd and 21. Running play and punt.

Sixth drive - Atlanta with little time goes deep middle but not much there and in the end not worth mentioning as they just did not have much time and only 1 time out.

End of half.

My thoughts? For an MVP candidate it surprised me how little they trusted Ryan to do. So much of their offense is built off the run to establish the pass as odd as that seems. When it failed the pass lagged. Atlanta really loves to pass to the sideline. Most of the passes went to those spots unless they were short. I think this is not about Seattle but their O design. When nothing is there deep by the side line Ryan seemed to hesitate and dump it off or hung on too long. The pass rush got to him pretty good this half and the guards were to blame. To me this is a great blue print the Pats can use even though we lack the Seattle pass rush.

Deep back. Stop the run. Make them drive and try to exploit the guards. Also defend those sidelines. Also be physical on 3rd down at the line. That helped. Atlanta scored only 3 in this half.

2nd half to come. I hope to have all 3 games done before the week is out.

 

[everlong]

I think they'll play their standard defense and some three safty looks and drop Chung into the box to help contain the run game.

Much like against Pitt I think you'll see Butler on Jones like he was against Brown. They need to limit his YAC on those shallow crosses. He'll have McCourty over the top.

Rowe on Sanu is a natural matchup that Rowe has to win.

With their running backs having around 900 yards receiving I think they'll couple Chung being in the box and use him to cover the RBs out of the back field vs putting a LB on them.

Ryan covers the slot and maybe the TE based on formation.

They'll mix in the run blitz especially on 3rd and 3-4 types of downs.

 

[BobDigital]

Seventh drive - Atlanta opens the half with the ball at starts at the 25. This drive was a case of the run game being effective. It was able to reliably do what they wanted it to do. However some great throws were made here particularly 3rd and 6 on a blitz where Ryan got hit hard and then a nice throw to Jones for 12 on the outside on first. throws where the 2 big pass plays that leads to a 36 yard TD down the side line to Jones was not well covered. I think the D was making things hard for Atlanta even though they were driving but that break down really is not forgivable on a vertical route down the sideline.

Eighth Drive - Atlanta starts at the 21 and Ryan hits Jones at the 45. Many guys around him but no one directly underneath and he fits in a gutsy throw. On the Next play he Hits Jones for 16 yards between 2 defenders in the zone. Now at the 39 a run play for 1 yard, a pass break up and then on 3rd and 9a completion to the outside at the 28. Again one of those routes that just is a race to the sideline. Seeing them a lot. That seems to be their 3rd down money play. An 18 yard run to the 10 and on 2nd and 10 a pass to Sanu he takes into the end zone. A well done route but too much space given in the zone and no one directly behind him to hit him as he makes a small cut inside to catch the ball then turns up for the last 4 yard very quickly. Just a very good drive but the mistake here was the bracketing of Jones side to side instead of over/under on 2 plays, a bad 18 yard run and a bit too soft of a zone in the red zone.

Ninth Drive - A very ill advised fair catch at the 3 starts them deep. A dump off pass makes it 2nd and 7 and a nicely timed crossing patterned allows a timed throw between split defenders to the 17. Next play is a play action on which Jones is hit breaking to the sideline deep at the 41. Nice low throw for 8 and a run for a first puts them at the 46. Here we have a bad defensive break down and the TE runs the sideline all alone for a 46 yard TD. Again the key play here besides the break down was a pattern cutting to the outside attacking the sideline from Jones.

Tenth Drive - Starts at the 20. A play action pass turns into a roll out and a short pass in the flat to an uncovered TE for 18. 2 runs make it 3rd and 6 but with no one open Matt takes a sack.

Eleventh Drive - Atlanta starts at the 25 and after 3 yards on first they pass into the the flat to get to the 39. the next play is a pass that just is a bit to far ahead of the WR and got tipped up at the 49 for an interception.

Twelfth Drive - Needing 3 to win (down 2) they start at the 25. They try the pass to the sideline for a big chunk but this time the DB is on his hip and their bread and butter is not there. It goes incomplete. On 2nd and 10 a short 3 yard pass in the flat but the defender is right there to apply the hit. Incomplete. On 3rd and 10 no one is open for a while and after a few ticks Matt takes a shot down the side line just past the 50 but with the defender tightly under the pass is incomplete. On 4th down they need 10 but again go deep this time to Jones at the 35. 2 defenders are there both slightly under on him and Jones needs to slow down for it. Talk about interference all you want this one never had a chance but Jones made a great leap and tries for a one handed catch after getting position.

Final thoughts.

I find the last sequence here fascinating. Atlanta used 3 of their favorite calls. Sideline catch was covered well though. A pass to the flat but was tightly covered. The sideline vertical was not there. When all else failed even in double coverage and deep Ryan decides to leave it up to Jones. This shows an interesting thought progression. There was no thought of down and distance with 2 minutes and 1 time out. It was the same plays over again and when all else failed just chuck it up deep to Jones is the only answer they had. I think that sequence right there sums up most of their passing offense in this game. I will wait to see more games before I conclude if this is their entire mentality. They rarely came off to me to play down and distance. They like to run a lot on first and when it comes to 3rd down they tend to go to one of their money plays (usually race to the sideline or vertical seem to be preferred) though i noticed they like passes to the flats and quick 3 step drops for a player who tries to streak between 2 in the box defenders for a quick 10.

They clearly look for big chunks but seem conservative too with how much they run which is an interesting mix. No drive succeeded for them without a big 30 yard or close to it chunk play.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I think they'll play their standard defense and some three safty looks and drop Chung into the box to help contain the run game.

Much like against Pitt I think you'll see Butler on Jones like he was against Brown. They need to limit his YAC on those shallow crosses. He'll have McCourty over the top.

Rowe on Sanu is a natural matchup that Rowe has to win.

With their running backs having around 900 yards receiving I think they'll couple Chung being in the box and use him to cover the RBs out of the back field vs putting a LB on them.

Ryan covers the slot and maybe the TE based on formation.

They'll mix in the run blitz especially on 3rd and 3-4 types of downs.

Seems like there's a million threads for Atlanta this/that.

Pat's are gunna do what we've done all all with a more complete game plane in place.

Again in another thread I wrote expect a lot of man w/ 3 S look. With Chung and or DMC coming down to play the backs.