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How the Patriots got where they are: College draft edition

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Deus Irae, Jan 23, 2020.

  1. TN patriot fan

    TN patriot fan On the Game Day Roster

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    Didn't you see Duke Dawson and Derek Rivers and all those other amazing draftees making all those game-turning plays in those SB wins?
     
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  2. TN patriot fan

    TN patriot fan On the Game Day Roster

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    Serious question: how are our scouts still employed? I get that BB and Caserio shoulder some of the blame; but I just can't fathom anyone being that unfathomably bad at his/her job and keeping it. Based on the article on the home page right now about our scouts gushing about another slow, can't-get-separation receiver, it certainly appears that said scouts are a significant part of the problem.
     
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  3. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    The thing that worries me is we aren’t finding some of those guys to slide into crucial positions. Granted we didn’t always fill each of these positions in the draft we always seemed to have guys waiting in the wings. We went from Troy Brown, to Wes Welker, to Edelman in the very important slot receiver role. Now with Edelman running on fumes we don’t have anyone to fill in after whiffing on Humphries. Same with tight end. They knew Gronk flirted with retirement at the end of the 2017 season but didn’t draft anyone to develop and take over when he did leave and we ended up with borderline NFL players.

    Now we are in a spot where we don’t have a ton of cap room, have one of the oldest rosters in the league, and have no real speed at any skill position. We should have a stable of young cheap players ready to step into starting roles taking over for veterans ala Solder/Light, Edelman/Welker, Gronk/Watson. Instead we are ending up with second and third round picks that are healthy scratches 90% of the season.
     
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  4. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm trying to stay out of this for a bit, in order to let it grow organically, but I'll interject just a bit about this, with two points:

    1. They also had Amendola to help continue the slot/not slot role, Edelman style, but he's moved on prior to retirement.
    2. They seem to have confused that fact that they were able to get lucky about Brown/Welker/Edelman in terms of draft capital spent bringing those players into the NFL with the idea that they don't need to invest draft capital on the position. Getting lucky twice, and paying for someone else's luck once, is not the same as cracking the code. That seems to have eluded them. There are several examples of low/non draft players panning out well as slot WRs, but there is nowhere near enough of such players to be expecting to find one. If it was that easy, the Patriots bench would have been littered with them since the early-mid 2000s.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 23, 2020
  5. slam

    slam In the Starting Line-Up

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    Here's the compilation I did comparing every team's draft in this decade, calculating the aggregate Career AV (Approximate Value) score of players drafted by each franchise. I wrote about it in this thread.



    These two things are true:

    The Patriots are #2 overall in combined AV this decade, only behind Seattle. I expect that ranking to fall slightly, but not out of the top ten. The Patriots are better at drafting than people on this board generally think (or else other teams are worse). The average Pats draft pick has netted the team 12.4 points of AV, which is good for 6th ranked despite drafting towards the end, penalized picks, etc. If Bill is bad at drafting then so is everyone else, Seattle excepted.

    That said, the return on their past three drafts have been very bad so far. 2017 is dead last and likely to remain that way, as they traded out of much of it and what is left is Deatrich Wise and nothing else. 2018 they're 26th out of 32 but I expect that to improve as Wynn and Michel are full-time starters and Bentley may join them. 2019 is way too early to tell.

    One thing to note to adjust people's overall expectations of what drafts usually bring to teams. Netting three decent starters out of a draft usually makes it a top ten draft for that year. Take the Pats 2004 draft for a historical example. The Pats drafted Vince Wilfork, Ben Watson, and absolutely no one else of note. That alone was good enough for the 10th best draft in teams of cumulative AV in the league that year. If Wynn, Michel, and Bentley have the career equivalents of good not great players Solder, Ridley, and Spikes that alone makes 2018 an average draft class at worst.

    More discussion about this in the thread linked above.
     
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  6. randomk1

    randomk1 In the Starting Line-Up

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    That career AV stat seems so flawed. Don't see how it relates much to wins and impact.
     
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  7. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The whole AV thing is just silliness on the part of PFR. It's a sucker's stat.
     
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  8. TB_Helmet

    TB_Helmet In the Starting Line-Up Weekly Picks Winner

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    What would you propose as a better metric?
     
  9. randomk1

    randomk1 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Rather a tier list of players vs average draft position or something like that.

    That career AV list has Ted Larsen career AV 36 nvm that he added no value to this team vs Gronkowski 69. Chandler Jones adds basically Gronk value but he means nothing to this team really.
     
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  10. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    What BB or any team did from 1991-95 is completely irrelevant to his discussion on every level..
     
  11. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Despite you being criticized that is how you judge this team.. the draft is only one aspect of how this team is built..

    The 2017 draft was poor as they had 4 picks.. #'s 83, 85, 131 & 211. It is as though it never existed on the field with Rivers and Wise the only ones who were noticeable.
     
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The first sentence of your post makes no sense in the context of this thread. Literally none.
     
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  13. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Would not expect you to understand.. but it really does not matter.
     
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  14. TinhWoodhead

    TinhWoodhead In the Starting Line-Up

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    They just need to hit the jackpot once every 15-20 years
     
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  15. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Florida Man PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And roughly how much of that core was drafted between 2015-2018? Because, as far as I can tell, the core that was responsible for those championships was Brady and the base built from 2009-2013. Simply put, you don’t have a vacuum of talent on the offensive side of the ball if you’re drafting well there in recent years. Just doesn’t happen.
     
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  16. p8ryts

    p8ryts 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Boy we will be glad when that lousy coach Bill Belichick retires, then maybe we will have a chance at winning a Super Bowl. It doesn't matter that he won 6 of 9 in 20 years we just wish he would win the draft every year.
     
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  17. Triumph

    Triumph Pro Bowl Player

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    I like to look at it like did the Pats find someone good at the position? Yes

    In year 1, dd the player get on the field preferably for 16 games and play well? Do his job. Yes

    Do the Pats need to spend resources at the same position in the subsequent draft or FA? No
     
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  18. 203Pat

    203Pat In the Starting Line-Up

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    I won't argue if that's your reasoning. There are also guys like Deatrich Wise or Malcolm Mitchell who I thought would blossom but either regressed or got derailed by injuries.
     
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  19. Patstopia

    Patstopia 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Just keep us going to the SB and they can draft who ever they want. I am sure the Browns have a much better individual draft for whatever that is worth.
     
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  20. TB_Helmet

    TB_Helmet In the Starting Line-Up Weekly Picks Winner

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    How would you assign players to different tiers? Honest question. You need some way to quantify their value.

    (Also, hilarious that Gronk has an AV of 69!)
     
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