How is Buffalo 9-3?

[mgcolby]

This is simple and happens every year, and explains why there is always turnover amongs the playoff teams each year (outside major injury). There is always at least one if not two average divisions that feast on a terrible division inflating their records, where as another average division plays a tougher or equal division bringing each other's records down. Rinse and repeat in the NFL.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Josh Allen played a very good game yesterday... that team is pretty scary, playing shut down defense and has a very efficient offense with a young QB that can throw lasers with great accuracy, as well as make plays with his legs

The Bills are legit this year

 

[1960Pats]

So, the AFC East isn't a weak division because the NFCE is worse? The AFCE East has been a week division for decades, often with one strong team and two really weak ones.

There is no question regarding the NFCE. One team will be forced to win the division. While I expect the winners to be 9-7, the winner easily could easily be 8-8.

If you haven't seen these yet you should check them out.

The Myth of the Easy AFC East, the Definitive Guide | Patriots Dynasty

Debunking the "AFC East Sucks" Fallacy - More Dumb Numbers (stats)

 

[QuantumMechanic]

The Pats and Bills schedules differ by only 2 games.

The Bills play the 6 - 5 Titans and 3 - 8 Broncos

The Pats play the 7 - 4 Texans and 7 - 4 Chiefs.

You missed the obvious big difference in their schedules. Buffalo plays NE twice but NE plays Buffalo twice.

 

[Froob]

Bills were the only AFC team yesterday. Lmao at how biased they are on turkey day games

I’m not sure we need Saints Falcons to be an annual game lol.

 

[Froob]

If you haven't seen these yet you should check them out.

The Myth of the Easy AFC East, the Definitive Guide | Patriots Dynasty

Debunking the "AFC East Sucks" Fallacy - More Dumb Numbers (stats)

I get the numbers and stuff, but aside from the 2009 and 2010 Jets, we haven’t had a legit contender in the division from the other 3 teams. Had a few teams that didn’t really belong in the playoffs make it.

 

[Froob]

You missed the obvious big difference in their schedules. Buffalo plays NE twice but NE plays Buffalo twice.

And you know Goodell made damn sure of it

 

[thecore762]

The Bills are doing well this year, surprised a bit with Allen, but you never know how things unravel.

Look at the 49ers, they are lights out, the Vikings looked to be doomed and now they are kicking ass.

It’s a long season folks and many things can change.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Josh Allen vs. non-pats teams:

16 TDs
5 INTs
94 passer rating
7 rushing TDs

 

[Triumph]

You missed the obvious big difference in their schedules. Buffalo plays NE twice but NE plays Buffalo twice.

Which adds up to Buffalo NOT playing a weak schedule which is the point of my rebuttal, but you missed it.

The Pats play 1 game thats more difficult than Buffalo. Tenn 6 - 5 and Houston 7 - 4 is basically a wash.

 

[Bluelobster]

I'm not convinced after the way they handled a good running Dallas team yesterday that they're terrible against the run.

I agree that they didn't stop the run game, but they did limit the run (especially on first down) which once you get a lead has the same effect in making the other team much more one dimensional. I didn't pay attention to personnel packages at all, but would be curious as to their run package if it gives up the same yard per attempt average as other downs and distance. It may be skewed stats (such as getting long runs after being up more than two scores) as well.

Very interested to see the BAL/BUFF matchup as the Ravens scheme to win first down on offense as much as the Bill scheme to win it on defense.

Not sure I understood/agreed with Garret's gameplan. I thought they abandoned the ground game too early. I'll be interested to see how the Bills do against the Ravens. If their HC and DC have figured out how to scheme to contain a power run game they will be a dangerous team in the playoffs.

 

[1960Pats]

I get the numbers and stuff, but aside from the 2009 and 2010 Jets, we haven’t had a legit contender in the division from the other 3 teams. Had a few teams that didn’t really belong in the playoffs make it.

The only teams imho who don't belong in the playoffs are those with worse records than teams that missed out. That hasn't happened for a team from the AFCE but it has happened against them.

When we look at the wins and stuff, it's safe to say that no matter what 4-team division the Pats are in it would produce close to the same or even better results.

 

[TB_Helmet]

I get the numbers and stuff, but aside from the 2009 and 2010 Jets, we haven’t had a legit contender in the division from the other 3 teams. Had a few teams that didn’t really belong in the playoffs make it.

Part of the problem is teams in the division have to play us twice which generally suppresses their record on the season.

 

[Deus Irae]

The only teams imho who don't belong in the playoffs are those with worse records than teams that missed out. That hasn't happened for a team from the AFCE but it has happened against them.

When we look at the wins and stuff, it's safe to say that no matter what 4-team division the Pats are in it would produce close to the same or even better results.

In the NFL, a team belongs in the playoffs if it:

Wins its division
Take a wild card spot


The rest is just people arguing over the lack of perfection, about something that can't ever be perfect.

 

[BelichicksHoodie]

Part of the problem is teams in the division have to play us twice which generally suppresses their record on the season.

Let’s just say that’s two auto losses for arguments sake, that still means they have the “potential” to go 14-2. The Jets hit 10-6 a few years with Bowles which is 10-4 in games not featuring us. It’s a solid win percentage.

The whole “AFC East is bad” narrative annoys me because usually the other teams in it hover are .500 at worse(save for last place which is usually bad in every division) which in itself isn’t a “bad” team. It’s average.

 

[1960Pats]

Which adds up to Buffalo NOT playing a weak schedule which is the point of my rebuttal, but you missed it.

The Pats play 1 game thats more difficult than Buffalo. Tenn 6 - 5 and Houston 7 - 4 is basically a wash.

No matter if you use rankings or records, Buffalo and the Pats have both played fairly easy schedules so far. I use average rankings of their opponents and the Pats are at 28 (18.67) and the Bills are dead last at 32 (22.5).

It would be nice to be able to use a combination of record and opponents to judge the true strength of teams. When you look at the schedule so far, the AFCW has had to play the AFCS and NFCN and the AFCN has had to play the AFCE and NFCW.

These are the average opponent rankings for each AFC team by division, including this week's games;
E - Buf (32), Mia (7), NE (28) and NJ (T25). Total 92
N - Bal (15), Cle (2), Cin (21) & Pitt (24). Total 62
S - Hou (3), Ind (T8), Jac (22) & Ten (T29). Total 62
W - Den (4), KC (T8), LC (31) & Oak (T5). Total 48

I've been pulling for the Bills all year but now I may not be able to do that. They're too close.

 

[PatsFan2]

It’s about time the Pats have a team in their rearview mirror.

20 years to be exact.

 

[1960Pats]

In the NFL, a team belongs in the playoffs if it:

Wins its division
Take a wild card spot


The rest is just people arguing over the lack of perfection, about something that can't ever be perfect.

It could be that people aren't looking for perfection but are looking for something better.

 

[Deus Irae]

It could be that people aren't looking for perfection but are looking for something better.

Re-seeding, when you seed the way you do because of divisions/conferences, is not about "better". It's about assuming the best matchups will be the top seeds. If you want to do that, just cut the number of playoff teams.

 

[Triumph]

No matter if you use rankings or records, Buffalo and the Pats have both played fairly easy schedules so far. I use average rankings of their opponents and the Pats are at 28 (18.67) and the Bills are dead last at 32 (22.5).

It would be nice to be able to use a combination of record and opponents to judge the true strength of teams. When you look at the schedule so far, the AFCW has had to play the AFCS and NFCN and the AFCN has had to play the AFCE and NFCW.

These are the average opponent rankings for each AFC team by division, including this week's games;
E - Buf (32), Mia (7), NE (28) and NJ (T25). Total 92
N - Bal (15), Cle (2), Cin (21) & Pitt (24). Total 62
S - Hou (3), Ind (T8), Jac (22) & Ten (T29). Total 62
W - Den (4), KC (T8), LC (31) & Oak (T5). Total 48

I've been pulling for the Bills all year but now I may not be able to do that. They're too close.

i do not see any formula that is accurate.

When the Bills played the Bengals nobody expected that the Bengals would have 0 wins today.