How important is a #1 Target in today's NFL?

[upstater1]

The Agholor catch yesterday is one that players like Mike Evans often make. Imagine if that play happened once every game for the Patriots.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The Agholor catch yesterday is one that players like Mike Evans often make. Imagine if that play happened once every game for the Patriots.

He bailed Mac out. That was a dynamite catch. I really hope him and Bourne receive most of the targets from here on out.

 

[Boomer B]

That's five out of 14, the definition of cherry picking.

Chiefs - Kelce, Hill
Bucs - Evans, Godwin
Titans - Brown
Dallas - Lamb
Arizona - Hopkins
Steelers - Johnson

He just didn’t list them all

 

[Boomer B]

The Next-Man-Up approach has been BB's cornerstone for his entire tenure here. IT works - pay a little less for Tier I, and apply those savings to the Tier II guys. Make it less of a drop-off of talent when they have to step in. Production in the aggregate is there - and that's what matters.

When you have three or four receivers that compliment each other, but none is that prototypical #1, then your QB's favorite target becomes the best one - the guy that is open.

2001/03/05 ... No superstar #1 receivers. TB's favorite receiver? "The one that's open".

When you have the best player ever at QB it worked, but we don’t have that anymore. In 2001,03,05 that was a different NFL, it wasn’t slanted towards offence like it is today.

 

[PatsFan2]

It depends on the team and the situation. But it can help.

I was just watching the highlights of the Dolphins game. Both of Tua's TD passes to Hill were the high arching slow deep passes that people complain about with Mac Jones. In fact, in passes, Hill had to slow down to catch the passes because they were both underthrown (not a lot on the second one, but a decent amount on the first). The difference is that Hill was so far ahead of the defenders that he could afford to slow up.





But there are still QBs who can play like an elite QB with lesser WRs like Mahomes. But those guys are becoming rarer and rarer.

I don't things have changed much in terms of the value of an elite quality WR. I just think there are more of them now than in the past.

So sorry to to say Tua throws > Mac's there is no comparison there. The Dolphins O is really good they could surprise in the East as of now we are the Third Team.

 

[Boomer B]

For me it’s about putting pressure on the defence. We don’t have anyone that does that. Maybe Thornton will become that type of player but who knows.

I was listening to Zo last week and what is happening is we are seeing teams go tight man, single high safety, and bringing the other one down. They do not respect our ability to threaten the 2nd level and if we can’t separate its putting pressure on Mac to make tight throws.

 

[PatsFan2]

Hello there,

Now, before the pitchforks, my apologies: I know there is a Kendrick Bourne thread, but this is an entirely different subject. I know we can figure out amongst ourselves where we are battling.

I created this thread because I wanted to hear your football opinions on this very question:
How important is a #1 Target in today's NFL?

I know this has been talked about in pieces many times, but I just find myself at an Impasse.

For years, my beliefs is that air production can be easily replicated. For example 4000 yards being distributed between 7 good people is the same as having 2 great and 5 snubs, or whatever combination you can think of. I believed that for awhile, even defending with what I find and thought.

But as we are getting more and more Air production, on average, AND the natural distribution on offenses are, generally, way more inclined to passing...well... Receivers are quickly becoming the 2nd highest earners, after QBS, in the NFL. This is not a coincidence (Raise your hand if you predicted it. You know who you are, u geniuses).

So, enough beating around the bushes... How GOOD our WRs have to be to replace an #1 stud (à la Gronk or whatever)? I think our team is developing, so Im not talking about predictions of good we can become per se, this is general discussion, ok? Is a #1 target becoming less overrated and more essential?

See Dolphins Hill and Waddle.

 

[Toofy]

QB contracts are gonna come down after what we have seen with dak. You are not gonna get paid unless you are a mahomes, Brady, Allen or Rodgers. The lil bit of savings from reduced QB contract would be used to get a WR 1 who can complement the QB.

Teams would need wr1 if QB cannot elevate play . What we are seeing happening with mahomes is phenomenal . And the draft is going to provide so much of wr talent that I believe first 2 rounds will be dedicated in a large percentage basis to WRs.

 

[Rob0729]

So sorry to to say Tua throws > Mac's there is no comparison there. The Dolphins O is really good they could surprise in the East as of now we are the Third Team.

Huh? Did you watch the video and how arching and long those balls took to get there? And the first pass to Hill was way off. If Mac had Hill or another wide receiver who could get as wide open as Hill was on those plays, he probably would have made the same TD passes.

Everyone in the world have compared Tua and Mac's throws to be about the same. Tua is just more mobile and Mac is more cerebral.

The only real place where Tua has an advantage over Jones right now is the talent around him. And possibly the coaching.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

So sorry to to say Tua throws > Mac's there is no comparison there. The Dolphins O is really good they could surprise in the East as of now we are the Third Team.

Go get 'em!!!

Don't look up the game by game #'s for more context

 

[PatsFan2]

Huh? Did you watch the video and how arching and long those balls took to get there? And the first pass to Hill was way off. If Mac had Hill or another wide receiver who could get as wide open as Hill was on those plays, he probably would have made the same TD passes.

Everyone in the world have compared Tua and Mac's throws to be about the same. Tua is just more mobile and Mac is more cerebral.

The only real place where Tua has an advantage over Jones right now is the talent around him. And possibly the coaching.

And I would say poor Mac he has a ways to go just stop comparing him to people who are better. FYI Mac hasn't played a good game yet I think Mac is our problem on Offense. Can his arm hit T Thornton in stride?? Boy I can't wait to se that.

 

[XLIX]

That's five out of 14, the definition of cherry picking.

He gave 5 examples, but that list was by no means comprehensive. It is not cherry picking to look at the final 8 teams in last year's playoffs. They all had a dominant #1 WR:

Rams = Kupp
Bengals = Chase
Titans = AJ Brown
Bucs = Godwin
Chiefs = Hill
Packers = Adams
49ers = Deebo
Bills = Diggs

 

[Rob0729]

And I would say poor Mac he has a ways to go just stop comparing him to people who are better. FYI Mac hasn't played a good game yet I think Mac is our problem on Offense. Can his arm hit T Thornton in stride?? Boy I can't wait to se that.

Did you watch Tua his first two years? Or are you going to judge him based solely on yesterday. Tua was awful for long stretches against the Pats week one. He was making excuses this past week about having issues seeing over the line.

 

[PatsFan2]

Did you watch Tua his first two years? Or are you going to judge him based solely on yesterday. Tua was awful for long stretches against the Pats week one. He was making excuses this past week about having issues seeing over the line.

Yeah he's undefeated against the Patriots' give it a rest dude.

 

[Rob0729]

QB contracts are gonna come down after what we have seen with dak. You are not gonna get paid unless you are a mahomes, Brady, Allen or Rodgers. The lil bit of savings from reduced QB contract would be used to get a WR 1 who can complement the QB.

Teams would need wr1 if QB cannot elevate play . What we are seeing happening with mahomes is phenomenal . And the draft is going to provide so much of wr talent that I believe first 2 rounds will be dedicated in a large percentage basis to WRs.

It will take the guys with over a hundred of million in guarantee to fail to make QB contracts go down. If Wilson or Watson are major disappointments or busts, then you will see some downward movement.

 

[Chevy]

When you have the best player ever at QB it worked, but we don’t have that anymore. In 2001,03,05 that was a different NFL, it wasn’t slanted towards offence like it is today.

It was different. It should have been easier to cover an overall "lesser" WR group. Yet, with the "open man = favorite target" mentality that TB (and the OC) had made it just as difficult. None of the top 3 receivers struck fear into the opponents, yet each managed to pimp-slap them throughout the season.

 

[Rob0729]

Yeah he's undefeated against the Patriots' give it a rest dude.

Yes, I get that if you go the superficial route on this, you can make that argument. But he has mostly sucked against the Patriots. The Pats lost last week because of the three turnovers they had, not the 13 points the vaulted Tua run Dolphin offense scored. Same thing in the first game last year where the Dolphins scored 17 points and the Pats were about to get the go ahead score (either 19-17 or 22-17 or 24-7 depending it they kicked the field goal or scored and whether they made the two point conversion or not which they would have tried for) before Damien Harris fumbled on the Miami 9 on first and ten giving the ball back to the Dolphins. Even in January of last year the Dolphins' offense scored only 20 points where the Patriots offense scored 24.

Yes, he is undefeated against the Patriots, but it is despite his play. Not because of it.

 

[Vindicate]

I don't even think you really need to look at a list of teams and their top WR's, it's moreso a strategy-based question. What I mean by that is:

The offense is the most prioritized side of the ball from a rules perspective, intentions notwithstanding (be it the league wanting to drive up views, etc.)
This creates a unit disparity (for lack of a better term), particularly because those rules have been a dialogue between receivers and those with whom they make contact.

Often, this can create a misunderstanding that the secondary of a team is more important, but that simply isn't true. It does beg a better secondary that is technically elite and sound compared to previous years, but if the rules afford leniency towards one side of the ball, and more specifically, a unit (receivers), then it is strategically sound to assume that unit will have a lot of contestation power. The better the systemically-favored unit is, the more it capitalizes on its favorable setup.

This, of course, assumes you have a decent QB and line, but I assumed that was assumed in this context. Basically, if all of your units are decent and someone gave you a magic bean that you ate and it suddenly gave +1 to a unit, I'd pick WR every time.

I think The Bengals are a great example of this. The only reason they were even in the playoffs, let alone the SB, was because of Chase.

 

[Ivan]

Depends upon the team and the game you are playing in. Example, Randy Moss. Moss is the most talented WR to ever play for the Patriots, but had he been their primary target in the Seattle Super Bowl they would have lost. Given the Seahawks defense and pass rush the Patriots game plan was the only one that could have succeeded imo. Brady was getting rid of the ball in 2 seconds on every pass, but they were “ matriculating the ball down the field” throughout the game. Edelman was making them crazy, and the Michael Bennett could be heard on the sidelines complaining about how they were getting through the line but still couldn’t get to Brady fast enough. Had the Patriots tried to go with a downfield passing attack that day it would not have worked. Brady would have gotten pounded, and they would have turned the ball over and lost.

This isn’t to say that teams don’t need a dominant WR to win, it’s certainly very helpful as it gets quick points, but you can without it if the team is constructed right, and you have a really good defense and special teams.

 

[PatsFan2]

Yes, I get that if you go the superficial route on this, you can make that argument. But he has mostly sucked against the Patriots. The Pats lost last week because of the three turnovers they had, not the 13 points the vaulted Tua run Dolphin offense scored. Same thing in the first game last year where the Dolphins scored 17 points and the Pats were about to get the go ahead score (either 19-17 or 22-17 or 24-7 depending it they kicked the field goal or scored and whether they made the two point conversion or not which they would have tried for) before Damien Harris fumbled on the Miami 9 on first and ten giving the ball back to the Dolphins. Even in January of last year the Dolphins' offense scored only 20 points where the Patriots offense scored 24.

Yes, he is undefeated against the Patriots, but it is despite his play. Not because of it.

Rob FTR right now Tua > Mac Jones.