Grading Patriots 1st Round Trades

[STUB STUB]

Sometimes a Belichick draft feels like ordering a burger, getting excited, and then finding out you'll get 2 tacos and a churro tomorrow instead. Anyways, I got curious how these trades have worked out (note: some of these are simplified and ignore minor late round swaps, etc.).

2000 - Forfeited #16 for signing Belichick
Grade: A+. Pretty good coach. Missed out on Shaun Alexander and Keith Bulluck, but got 2 decades of pitch-perfect deadpan press-conference humor.

2002 - Trade up from #32 to #21 to draft Daniel Graham
Grade: B. Sounds worse than it was. Sure, we missed out on Ed Reed (#24), but there was only dreck left at #32.

2003 - Trade Bledsoe and move a bit to eventually draft Ty Warren.
Grade: A-. We passed on Troy Palamalu, but got the underrated cornerstone Warren.

2003 - Trade #19 to draft Eugene Wilson and Dan Klecko in 2003 and Vince Wilfork (#23) in 2004
Grade: B+. Pretty deep draft where we passed on Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson and Nnamdi Asomugha and the 2004 pick was probably lower than we anticipated, but Wilfork used his natural gravitational abilities to fall to us the next year and save the trade.

2007 - Trade Deion Branch to draft Brandon Meriweather (#24)
Grade: C-. It was the right time to trade Branch, but it was never the right time to draft the player who some may call "the Laurence Maroney of our defense".

2007 - Trade #28 into 2008 to eventually draft Jerod Mayo and Shawn Crable
Grade: B-. We passed on Joe Staley and Greg Olsen, but it was a fairly weak draft class overall. The 2008 pick was higher than anticipated, thankfully.

2008 - Trade down from #7 to #10 to grab Mayo and Crable
Grade: B+. The players drafted 7, 8, 9 were forgettable (S Ellis, D Harvey, K Rivers), so we saved on the old top-heavy rookie payscale, but drafting a LB with the calves of a CB never panned out.

2009 - Trade down from #23 -> #26 -> to draft Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Edelman in 2009 and Gronk in 2010
Grade: A. Classic Belichick draft: terrible CB and WR, but amazing 7th round positional project and the best WWE US Title holder in NFL history. Was frustrating at the time, as Clay Matthews and Michael Oher were taken with our traded picks.

2010 - Trade down #22->#27 to draft Devin McCourty, Aaron Hernandez and Taylor Price
Grade: A-. Frustrating at the time, as we passed on Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas with the picks we traded to grab some no-name DB from Rutgers. Hernandez would go on to sell thousands of jerseys which would soon lead to thousands of refunds.

2011 - Trade down from #28 for Shane Vereen in 2011 and Chandler Jones (#27) in 2012
Grade: A-. Some Pats fans were again groaning that we passed on Mark Ingram, but it paid off the following year.

2012 - Trade up to #21 from #27 for Chandler Jones and trade up to #25 from #31 for Donta Hightower
Grade: A. So good that they couldn't even afford both of them a few years later. The picks they traded to move up? Used on Doug Martin, Kevin Zeitler, Jared Crick and Brandon Thompson

2013 - Trade down from #29 to draft Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Josh Boyce, and a 7th traded for LeGarrette Blount
Grade: A-. This is how dynasties get a round 2. We didn't miss out on anything between our original pick and Collins. And the #29 pick was everything-yet-nothing Corderelle Patterson.

2017 - Trade 1st (and 3rd) for Brandin Cooks
Grade: B. Cooks was a bad fit but this draft was terrible around where we would've picked. Cooks at least held his value to be traded for...

2018 - Trade Brandin Cooks for Isaiah Wynn (#23), Ryan Izzo, Keion Crossenin in 2018 and Byron Cowart in 2019
Grade: TBD.

Thoughts?

 

[farn]

You underrate a few of those IMO. Manoeuvring first Mayo : GOLD. Some people forget, because he basically played his entire career in the 05-13 « no SB era » but he was an amazing player.

Vereen & Jones ?!? Where do I sign ? That’s gold as well.

But the A+ ? Wilson, Klecko, Wilfork... who cares who was on the board ? That right there is platinum !


BB. World’s worst GM - according to Patsfans.

 

[STUB STUB]

A reminder that good things happen when we trade down. ^

 

[DropKickFlutie]

OP kudos to you, excellent post.

Love 2012. Basically when the Pats trade up a bit it's an EXCELLENT sign that the guy will be an all pro caliber player. Amazing they got Chandler Jones and Hightower. Set the foundation of the team.

 

[SEA_Pat]

I'm going to be like the protagonist in Citizen Kane except my last words before dying will be "Crable's calves" instead of "Rosebud"....either that or "Adam Seward".

 

[borg]

I'm going to be like the protagonist in Citizen Kane except my last words before dying will be "Crable's calves" instead of "Rosebud"....either that or "Adam Seward".

Crable: #1 on my “Bill’s worst draft pick” list.
What was the scout thinking
What was Bill thinking
Never seen a guy get blown backwards with so much ease

 

[Steve85]

“Sure, we missed out on Ed Reed (#24)“

lol. Sure, one of the greatest S of all time.

I’m just poking fun at the way it was said. Draft is almost always a crap shoot.

 

[primetime]

OP, you know running backs are bad picks right? Like passing on Willis McGahee and Larry Johnson and getting Wilson and Wilfork is... not a bad thing.

 

[TomPatriot]

Interesting recitation of draft day deals and most of them turned out pretty well.

Wilfolk was one of the best players ever to play for this team. Mayo was a great and smart player who just had a horrible injury.

 

[aluminum seats]

Good well-researched thread, but disagree here...

It was the right time to trade Branch

Not having Branch probably cost the Pats a super bowl..AFC championship game came down to a third and four… that one still smarts

 

[scott99]

I don't have a problem up until around 2015, really hasn't had a good draft since 2014. 2019 MAY turn out to be good, we shall see.

 

[moosekill]

Good well-researched thread, but disagree here...



Not having Branch probably cost the Pats a super bowl..AFC championship game came down to a third and four… that one still smarts

Branch forced his way out of town, pats didn't really have an option.

 

[Steve102]

good analysis. Thanks.

 

[jah]

Crable: #1 on my “Bill’s worst draft pick” list.
What was the scout thinking
What was Bill thinking
Never seen a guy get blown backwards with so much ease

Jake Bequette

 

[aluminum seats]

Branch forced his way out of town, pats didn't really have an option.

Eh, who knows. A lot of times after something happens we tend to think that it was inevitable even if it wasn’t. But that’s really a different conversation, just mean that I don’t think it was a good time to get rid of him, it cost the team a title most likely.

 

[n6249c]

2003 - Trade #19 to draft Eugene Wilson and Dan Klecko in 2003 and Vince Wilfork (#23) in 2004
Grade: B+. Pretty deep draft where we passed on Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson and Nnamdi Asomugha and the 2004 pick was probably lower than we anticipated, but Wilfork used his natural gravitational abilities to fall to us the next year and save the trade.

How can any move that resulted in drafting Big Vince be graded any lower than A+? And adding in Wilson and Klecko should ice that.

2013 - Trade down from #29 to draft Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Josh Boyce, and a 7th traded for LeGarrette Blount
Grade: A-. This is how dynasties get a round 2. We didn't miss out on anything between our original pick and Collins. And the #29 pick was everything-yet-nothing Corderelle Patterson.

So essentially drafting Collins, Ryan, Boyce, and Blount at #29 only rates an A- ?

 

[STUB STUB]

How can any move that resulted in drafting Big Vince be graded any lower than A+? And adding in Wilson and Klecko should ice that.

So essentially drafting Collins, Ryan, Boyce, and Blount at #29 only rates an A- ?

Wilson was a 2-year wonder and Vince's fall was very lucky - even at the time that was obvious.

Yeah, I guess I dislike Boyce enough to mark them down for it .

 

[Shockt327]

Good well-researched thread, but disagree here...



Not having Branch probably cost the Pats a super bowl..AFC championship game came down to a third and four… that one still smarts

Do people seriously forget just how bad the Patriots were in the divisional game against San Diego? They didn't deserve to win that game...period. Change anything about that game and they don't get the miracle mistake that somehow won them the game. Hell, the played San Diego at home in 2005, with Branch and Givens, and the offense still sucked.

So, yes, I get that losing to Indy was a heart-breaker, but don't re-wright history and tell me they "probably" would've won a Superbowl if they threw a big-time contract at Deion Branch. The 2006 team was on the road in the playoffs because they just weren't that good. No Harrison. No Seau. Had to move Vrabel out of position to ILB. Had JAGs like Artrell Hawkins and Tully Banta Cain as starters. That's not a Superbowl caliber team. That's how I think of that 2006 team. Getting to the AFCCG was far beyond their expectations.

 

[aluminum seats]

Do people seriously forget just how bad the Patriots were in the divisional game against San Diego? They didn't deserve to win that game...period. Change anything about that game and they don't get the miracle mistake that somehow won them the game. Hell, the played San Diego at home in 2005, with Branch and Givens, and the offense still sucked.

So, yes, I get that losing to Indy was a heart-breaker, but don't re-wright history and tell me they "probably" would've won a Superbowl if they threw a big-time contract at Deion Branch. The 2006 team was on the road in the playoffs because they just weren't that good. No Harrison. No Seau. Had to move Vrabel out of position to ILB. Had JAGs like Artrell Hawkins and Tully Banta Cain as starters. That's not a Superbowl caliber team. That's how I think of that 2006 team. Getting to the AFCCG was far beyond their expectations.

I’m not rewriting anything. The AFC championship game came down to a third and four, after the patriots blew an 18 point lead. It’s not rewriting **** to say they would’ve won that game with Branch on the team. And even without him they would’ve beaten the Bears that year in the Super Bowl.

 

[Shockt327]

I’m not rewriting anything. The AFC championship game came down to a third and four, after the patriots blew an 18 point lead. It’s not rewriting **** to say they would’ve won that game with Branch on the team. And even without him they would’ve beaten the Bears that year in the Super Bowl.

You, somehow, magically, think the 2006 Patriots could add Deion Branch to the roster and the exact same sequence of events would occur; where Deion Branch picks up that first down. LOL. If anything changes, it's that they don't get out of San Diego. Period.