Gil Brandt Calls BB Best Drafter IN NFL

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here is one that was at least well thought out.

Pats #7

Grading every NFL team's draft performance over the last 5 years

At least it’s an ethos.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Gil lost his fastball a while ago

Yet still has more football knowledge in his pinky than this board combined.

 

[borg]

Lol @ disagreeing with this statement.

The reason Brady is gone is because the last 4-5 drafts have been rock bottom.

The reason the Patriots are in danger of regressing back to the pack, at last, is because the last 4-5 drafts.

This isn’t even a debate.

We have BINGO

Imagine this scouting report:
Muscle bound WR who can’t create separation but wins 50-50 balls.

Then using a #1 to secure him.

The good news.... external scouts got it right.
Not sure if internal scouts did though.

 

[VrabelJr]

This year is as good a time as any to have an epic draft like 2010 and 2012.

 

[TBR]

I don't think he's significantly above the rest. Also, it's hard to phrase this without coming off like I'm a Belichick hater, which I'm not, but I find it hard to give credit for late round picks or UDFAs.

Brady, Edelman, Butler, Jackson are a few examples. If you're a great drafter, why don't you take these in earlier rounds if you have the slightest hunch they might turn out great? Why wait so long/risk UDFA if you genuinely see something promising? How do you justify that, other than to admit it's really just a massive crapshoot?

As others have said, stockpiling numerous picks to have more shots at the crapshoot is what he's done. Also throw in some great coaching, team-building (more than just picking the most talented player) & game planning to help these players shine during games, and you get these results; although most definitely not 6 SuperBowls without a bit of luck, like landing Tom Brady.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't think he's significantly above the rest. Also, it's hard to phrase this without coming off like I'm a Belichick hater, which I'm not, but I find it hard to give credit for late round picks or UDFAs.

Brady, Edelman, Butler, Jackson are a few examples. If you're a great drafter, why don't you take these in earlier rounds if you have the slightest hunch they might turn out great? Why wait so long/risk UDFA if you genuinely see something promising? How do you justify that, other than to admit it's really just a massive crapshoot?

As others have said, stockpiling numerous picks to have more shots at the crapshoot is what he's done. Also throw in some great coaching, team-building (more than just picking the most talented player) & game planning to help these players shine during games, and you get these results; although most definitely not 6 SuperBowls without a bit of luck, like landing Tom Brady.

To me, it’s all about comparative success. None of these people seem to have any idea what the actual standard is when they just make a blanket statement that Belichick is the best drafter or personnel guy. I suspect he is, but I don’t know. Don’t other teams also hit on some late round picks and UDFAs? Of course. Don’t other teams uncover great FA values sometimes but usually miss when they go bargain hunting? Of course.

Belichick seems to have a lot of hits and misses. What exactly that percentage is and whether that’s good, average, or below average really isn’t clear. It’s like evaluating baseball players before advanced analysis...just no actual idea besides guesswork and selective sampling.

 

[Doctor DDS]

The Pats have also had the least draft "points" of any team in history over the past 2 decades due to success and stolen picks by Goodell. Losing 2 first round picks hurts for several years.

 

[Uptown]

 

[slam]

I think there's some difference in compensation.

There's no denying BB's GOATness and overall drafting record. The Last few years haven't been his best though.

People on this board deny this on a daily basis!

Now to read the rest of the thread to prove myself right.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

This is awesome. Never seen this before just heard bits & pieces. Very interesting. Confirms a few things & also makes me rethink a few as well. Straightforward but there's a lot there.

 

[TheRainMaker]

To me, it’s all about comparative success. None of these people seem to have any idea what the actual standard is when they just make a blanket statement that Belichick is the best drafter or personnel guy. I suspect he is, but I don’t know. Don’t other teams also hit on some late round picks and UDFAs? Of course. Don’t other teams uncover great FA values sometimes but usually miss when they go bargain hunting? Of course.

Belichick seems to have a lot of hits and misses. What exactly that percentage is and whether that’s good, average, or below average really isn’t clear. It’s like evaluating baseball players before advanced analysis...just no actual idea besides guesswork and selective sampling.

The X factor has always been how good your QB is. We will see how good his drafts are with an average to above average QB (if we're lucky).

Look at what happened to the Jaguars. Drafted studs all over the board, but imploded because of pathetic QB play. Coach gets fired and almost all their core players want out.

Early 2000's Ravens another example.

 

[maust]

Apparently the real reason BB is among the best in the NFL is all the people that are better drafters are here at patsfans and not in the NFL

 

[BelizePats]

A) That was a long time ago.
B) Borges is an idiot

It may have been a long time ago but it beautifully encapsulates all of Ron Borges' football knowledge. Ron Borges is to football what tapeworms are to dinner.

 

[Kasmir]

On a day when they could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the second-best tackle in the draft in Kenyatta Walker, they took Georgia defensive tackle Richard Seymour, who had 1 sacks last season in the pass-happy SEC and is too tall to play tackle at 6-6 and too slow to play defensive end. This genius move was followed by trading out of a spot where they could have gotten the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson and settled for tackle Matt Light, who will not help any time soon.

- Ron Borges, MSNBC after 2001 Draft.

Perhaps even more interesting is Borge's bitter anti-Belichick rant from November of that year:

So now Belichick has hitched his future to Tom Brady. The remaining games are his to win or lose, barring injury or waffling from the coach. How those games go, and where Drew Bledsoe goes, will decide a lot of things for the New England Patriots.

They'll also decide one thing for Bill Belichick. Whether the future is now or nonexistent for him, because there's no turning back. Some people learn from their mistakes. Others are doomed to repeat them.

If you wonder which is Bill Belichick, go ask people in Cleveland if they've ever heard the story of the guy who benched Bernie Kosar for Todd Philcox?

Boston Globe Online / Sports / There's a risk factor at work for Belichick

This is also the article with the "this Patriot team isn't going to win two Super Bowls any time soon" quote.

It's interesting reading for those who may have forgotten what Brady looked like that season; there was plenty of reason for doubts, as he had a couple of stinkers of games. Unlike what some of the Brady Brigade would have you think, Brady's GOAT-ness did not travel back in time and inspire everyone yet.

And it's also eerie how the criticisms then of Belichick's dumping of Bledsoe are mirrored in the criticisms of him today for passing on Brady.

Hopefully, there will be football this fall and we'll get to see how this actually plays out here and in Tampa Bay.

 

[Koma]

The Pats have also had the least draft "points" of any team in history over the past 2 decades due to success and stolen picks by Goodell. Losing 2 first round picks hurts for several years.

I don't have a link handy, but I'm pretty sure that, in 2007, Goodell even said he took away the first round pick (as opposed to a suspension of a player or coach) because it would cause more long term harm to the team.

 

[Ivan]

Everyone complains about the Pats draft and points to this or that player as proof. But if you have nothing to compare it to it is all subjective. If you want to prove your point then compare each teams draft to the same examination you are doing with the Pats. Then you can argue about it.

there were a couple of long term studies done on drafting over long terms and one had the Patriots as the best franchise at drafting, and the other had the Tavens and Patriots as the best drafting franchises, and neither took average draft position figured into their criteria. Taken individually any team can be made to look bad at drafting as every team has their hits and misses, what matters is the overall productivity of the players drafted and UDFA’s..

 

[Kasmir]

there were a couple of long term studies done on drafting over long terms and one had the Patriots as the best franchise at drafting, and the other had the Tavens and Patriots as the best drafting franchises, and neither took average draft position figured into their criteria. Taken individually any team can be made to look bad at drafting as every team has their hits and misses, what matters is the overall productivity of the players drafted and UDFA’s..

Of all the numerous complaints about BB's drafting I've seen here, not one has even tried to address this question, i.e. to attempt to show that other teams have done better than BB did with their own drafting opportunities. I suspect the reason for that is the complainers have tried to do that and know it can't be done.

 

[Biffins]

I don't think Bill is better than his top peers at talent selection. What makes him great is he has a value system that he sticks to, he gives himself many more at bats than his peers and he tries to build a team not a collection of talent.

Ernie and Bill treat it like a doctorate class in economics which in many ways it is. They just use draft capital and value against salary to gain a competitive advantage. When a vet starts making more salary than what they think his value is they let him walk and take the comp pick to get more value. They may take a short term hit in talent at a position but they're usually in a better value situation. Sure you would love to still have Trey Flowers, just not at 17/year. Simon, Winovich, Wise.....not nearly the player Flowers is but combined they make less than a third of what he makes for 80% of the output.

We compared the Steelers 2nd round picks vs the Patriots a few years ago during one of the "Patriots can't draft in the 2nd round" rants. I forget the exact numbers but the Patriots and Steelers had roughly the same percentage of hits in the second round but the Patriots had twice the number of selections in the same time period. Bill knows that as good as they are they're going to miss. He's giving himself more hits by playing the numbers.

It's not like any of this is a revelation. We've had this discussion a lot over the years.

Bill is very good.

With that said recent drafts have sucked, causing pressure to constantly fix the team via FA.

 

[1960Pats]

Perhaps even more interesting is Borge's bitter anti-Belichick rant from November of that year:



Boston Globe Online / Sports / There's a risk factor at work for Belichick

This is also the article with the "this Patriot team isn't going to win two Super Bowls any time soon" quote.

It's interesting reading for those who may have forgotten what Brady looked like that season; there was plenty of reason for doubts, as he had a couple of stinkers of games. Unlike what some of the Brady Brigade would have you think, Brady's GOAT-ness did not travel back in time and inspire everyone yet.

And it's also eerie how the criticisms then of Belichick's dumping of Bledsoe are mirrored in the criticisms of him today for passing on Brady.

Hopefully, there will be football this fall and we'll get to see how this actually plays out here and in Tampa Bay.

Brady's flame was flickering then. You could see it in the 8-8 and 9-9 passing in a blizzard in the two drives that tied and won the Snow Bowl as well as his last drive in the SB. That flame then became a bonfire during Dynasty 1B.

I remember the Brady/Bledsoe wars very well. The difference now is that we're not yet sure that we have a capable replacement. We'll see.

Unfortunately, TB may not get another chance to play and even if he did he's at an age that says he may not make it anyway. I wouldn't bet against him though.

 

[everlong]

The last few years haven't been as productive, even discounting the injuries.

Here's the last 5 years by round...

I think this list works against your argument. It might not be as good as 2010-2013 where they hit on so many players but it's still pretty decent.

Plus the UDFA's Malcolm Butler, David Andrews, Justin Coleman, Jonathan Jones, Adam Butler, Jacob Hollister and JC Jackson all contributed to SB wins (Coleman actually didn't play in the playoffs in 2016 to be fair). Myers and Gunner have shown some flashes on offense and special teams so there's hope there as well.

1 23 Isaiah Wynn - Solid starter who has had injury issues.
1 29 Dominique Easley - Bust
1 31 Sony Michel - Solid starter
1 32 Malcom Brown - Starter
2 56 Duke Dawson - Bust
2 60 Cyrus Jones - Bust
2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo - Solid starter
2 64 Jordan Richards - Special teams (otherwise useless admittedly)
3 78 Joe Thuney - 2nd team all pro
3 83 Derek Rivers - Backup
3 85 Antonio Garcia - Nothing
3 91 Jacoby Brissett - Borderline starter
3 96 Vincent Valentine - Backup
3 97 Geneo Grissom - Nothing
4 101 Trey Flowers - Pro bowler
4 105 Bryan Stork - Starter
4 111 Tre' Jackson - Nothing
4 112 Malcolm Mitchell - Could have been great if not for the injuries
4 130 James White - Solid Starter
4 131 Deatrich Wise - Spot Starter
4 131 Shaq Mason - Pro bowler
4 140 Cameron Flemming - Solid swing tackle
5 143 Ja'Whaun Bentley - Spot Starter
5 166 Joe Cardona - Special teamer
6 178 Christian Sam -Nothing
6 178 Matthew Wells - Nothing
6 179 Jon Halapio - Nothing
6 198 Zach Moore -Nothing
6 202 A.J. Derby - Backup
6 206 Jemea Thomas - Nothing
6 208 Kamu Grugier-Hill - Nothing
6 210 Braxton Berrios - Backup & special teams
6 211 Conor McDermott - nothing
6 214 Elandon Roberts - Backup
6 221 Ted Karras - Starter
7 219 Danny Etling - Nothing
7 225 Devin Lucien - Nothing
7 243 Keion Crossen - Special teams
7 244 Jeremy Gallon - Nothing
7 247 Darryl Roberts - Special teams and backup
7 250 Ryan Izzo - backup
7 253 Xzavier ****son Nothing



You would be hard pressed to find a lot of teams a lot better. The problem is the FA defections.