Getting Into Kraft's Thought Process - Some Thoughts

[Ring 6]

I agree that BB and Kraft have an established working relationship that is the foundation for working through a succession plan. Otherwise BB would have been gone long ago. It seems as if you have never worked in a corporate environment where people are incented to work together towards a common goal while also serving personal agendas. Open conflict is frowned upon so everyone pretends to be nice on the surface while playing politics in the background. The fact that both parties use the media to advance their perspectives is proof enough that it isn't as cuddly and nice as you seem to believe. That does not mean that they are adversaries.

They have worked together for a common goal for 25 years. Your assumption that everyone is a duplicitous back stabber is not what happens in successful organizations with good leadership.
Nor is the concept of when the going gets tough find a scapegoat to fire.

 

[Boomer B]

They have worked together for a common goal for 25 years. Your assumption that everyone is a duplicitous back stabbed is not what happens in successful organizations with good leadership.
Nor is the concept of when the going gets tough find a scapegoat to fire.

Please stop taking over every damn thread. Say your point once and let it be.

 

[Ring 6]

Didn't the Pats give up a pick to get Belichick even though he had resigned from the Jets? How is this situation different?

When a coach is under contract they cannot just quit and go to work for another team.
All things equal BB would have had to sit out that year ( or whatever was left on his contract)
Since that does no one any good, he found a job, and the patriots have the jete compensation to release him from the contract.

The only way the patriots would get compensation in this scenario is if BB resigns, and then another team is willing to pay the patriots to release him from his obligation.
In the real world, it doesn’t necessarily happen in the order

 

[Ring 6]

Please stop taking over every damn thread. Say your point once and let it be.

I will post what I want to post. You can choose to out me in ignore if you wish.

 

[raduray]

Plenty of other teams would hire him as HC

With GM duties as well? That's what I was referring to.

 

[Ring 6]

With GM duties as well? That's what I was referring to.

maybe but he has stated he doesn’t want go somewhere and rebuild everything

 

[Toofy]

The more this dilly dallies , it means bill is back but with No GM duties.

They feel they don't need to make the season even more worse than what it is right now .

Kraft is probably going to hire Vrabel as assistant head coach who will take over next year , Steve belichick will be the DC once bill retires. McDaniels is back as OC and Bob will get sweetheart deal to go back to college. Mayo is probably leaving at this point.

Bill might assume titular position like VP operations like John lynch in 2025.

Mac and Matt groh will be the sacrificial lambs . I don't think klemm is back.

They will sign one of the QBs in round 1 to get the crowd excited . They will not be able to sell seats with zappe .

A big splash in FA is needed . So most likely tee higgins at 25 million . Onwenu will be resigned . The unfortunate casualty might be Henry in this case as we might nit be able to afford him but maybe get Bourne again in a 1 year prove it deal .

Higgins + Bourne + Douglas + 2nd round rookie wide receiver should be good enough.


Left tackle will be weak spot , but other 4 positions will be in decent shape . So if defense maintains form , the offense should be decently improved .

 

[jmt57]

I am not following the concept that a new GM would not be able to be ready for the draft.

The draft is still three months away. Any potential new GM has been preparing for the 2024 draft for some time now.

Every single year NFL GMs are fired. And every single year those GMs still manage to oversee free agency and the draft. It's not as if teams fire GMs in September so his successor has half a year to prepare for the draft.

Go down the list of current NFL GMs, and the majority of them were hired from outside the organization in January.

 

[n6249c]

I am not following the concept that a new GM would not be able to be ready for the draft.

The draft is still three months away. Any potential new GM has been preparing for the 2024 draft for some time now.

Every single year NFL GMs are fired. And every single year those GMs still manage to oversee free agency and the draft. It's not as if teams fire GMs in September so his successor has half a year to prepare for the draft.

Go down the list of current NFL GMs, and the majority of them were hired from outside the organization in January.

Question is, how do those teams do? Realistically I expect most of them expect to be a ****show in year one. They’ve either got a new GM with an incumbent coaching staff, so the GM is not doing anything anyway. Or they’ve got a new GM and a new HC and they have such a bad team that as long as whoever they draft can fog a mirror they’ll be an upgrade.

consider Tennessee as an example. Last year they hired a new GM, but had a stable HC incumbent so the new GM didn’t have to jump in alone. They got worse from last year to this year, and Vrabel got a quick hook because the owner wanted the GM to have as much time as possible to hire the new HC and prepare for the draft. Want to bet on how much improved the Titans will be this time next year?

 

[mgteich]

Every pick in this upcoming draft should be offense

We will draft our future starter at free safety if we can't get sufficient help in free agency (basically a replacement for Dugger).

 

[pazrul72]

Do you disagree? Do you honestly think belichick after running the organization for 25 years will have all of his authority stripped from him and then take a role with zero responsibility or authority and stay working under the guy who just told him to go f himself?
When he could have many other HC jobs, take a TV job, or just retire?

It’s not im right because I said so, it’s I’m right because your idea has absolutely no chance of happening.

My very first post said this is what *I* would do if i was Kraft, i never said this is what i think will happen. It all depends on how the conversation goes, yeah if Kraft goes in "you suck, you f ed everything up, this team is trash" Bill would be like f you back, but if it goes "we appreciate everything you have done in the past 25 years, 6 superbowls team valued at Billions, great work. We want you in the building, we value your experience and football knowledge. We also want to start transitioning to the next step in our franchises story and hope you will be a part of that."

Why would Bill accept that? I already answered this, he probably recognizes its time to transition, he has 2 years of coaching left, 3 at the absolute outside most, he enjoys coaching with his kids, not having to change houses, schedules, routines, relationships with players and coaches. This allows him to still be a valued contributing member of the team he helped build and extends his career as long as he feels like being around. He might enjoy being able to research, deep dive into whatever topic he chooses to.

I dont know Bill on a personal level im just saying there are things that might appeal to him, and its a respectful way to keep him around while acknowledging that this rebuild has crashed and burned.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

We will draft our future starter at free safety if we can't get sufficient help in free agency (basically a replacement for Dugger).

Stop being cheap and retain your players by paying them. I'd sure like joe thuney right now

 

[mgteich]

Stop being cheap and retain your players by paying them. I'd sure like joe thuney right now

WE HAVE NO FREE SAFETY

 

[cmasspatsfan]

The more this dilly dallies , it means bill is back but with No GM duties.

They feel they don't need to make the season even more worse than what it is right now .

Kraft is probably going to hire Vrabel as assistant head coach who will take over next year , Steve belichick will be the DC once bill retires. McDaniels is back as OC and Bob will get sweetheart deal to go back to college. Mayo is probably leaving at this point.

Bill might assume titular position like VP operations like John lynch in 2025.

Mac and Matt groh will be the sacrificial lambs . I don't think klemm is back.

They will sign one of the QBs in round 1 to get the crowd excited . They will not be able to sell seats with zappe .

A big splash in FA is needed . So most likely tee higgins at 25 million . Onwenu will be resigned . The unfortunate casualty might be Henry in this case as we might nit be able to afford him but maybe get Bourne again in a 1 year prove it deal .

Higgins + Bourne + Douglas + 2nd round rookie wide receiver should be good enough.


Left tackle will be weak spot , but other 4 positions will be in decent shape . So if defense maintains form , the offense should be decently improved .

This is along the lines of what I've been thinking, just not sure about Mayo and not sure who GM will be, if they go this route, they should probably get Vrabes guy.

 

[jmt57]

Question is, how do those teams do? Realistically I expect most of them expect to be a ****show in year one. They’ve either got a new GM with an incumbent coaching staff, so the GM is not doing anything anyway. Or they’ve got a new GM and a new HC and they have such a bad team that as long as whoever they draft can fog a mirror they’ll be an upgrade.

consider Tennessee as an example. Last year they hired a new GM, but had a stable HC incumbent so the new GM didn’t have to jump in alone. They got worse from last year to this year, and Vrabel got a quick hook because the owner wanted the GM to have as much time as possible to hire the new HC and prepare for the draft. Want to bet on how much improved the Titans will be this time next year?

How did those teams do? The fact that the GM was being replaced would lead me to believe those rosters were not very good to begin with in most, if not all cases. So yes, I agree - I definitely would not expect a one-year turnaround. History shows that to very seldom be the case. The best scenario to hope for is John Lynch with the 49ers, who jumped up to 13-3 in Year 3.

Though few and far between, there are a few cases of a head coach being hired prior to the GM. Seattle hired Pete Carroll a week before signing John Schneider, for example.

Here is a list of the current GMs (or equivalent duties with a different title), with date hired, record in that first year (and previous year).
All were hired from outside the organization unless noted differently below.

Ariz -- Monti Ossenfort -- 1/16/23 -- 4-13 (4-13 in '22)
Atl --- Terry Fontenot ---- 1/19/21 -- 7-10 (7-10 in '20)
Balt -- Eric DeCosta ------ 1/11/19 -- promoted from within
Buff -- Brandon Beane --- 5/09/17 -- 9-7 wild card (7-9 in '16)
Car --- vacant
Chi --- Ryan Poles -------- 1/25/22 -- 3-14 (6-11 in '21)
Cin --- Duke Tobin ------- 1/25/03 -- promoted from within (unofficial GM)
Cle --- Andrew Berry ----- 1/27/20 -- 11-5 wild card (6-10 in '19)
Dal --- Jerry Jones -------- 4/18/89 -- 1-15 (3-13 in '88)
Den -- George Paton ----- 1/12/21 -- 7-10 (5-11 in '20)
Det -- Brad Holmes ------- 1/14/21 -- 3-13-1 (5-11 in '20)
GB --- Brian Gutekunst --- 1/08/18 -- promoted from within
Hou -- Nick Caserio ------- 1/07/21 -- 4-13 (4-12 in '20)
Ind --- Chris Ballard ------- 1/30/17 -- 4-12 (8-8 in '16)
Jax --- Trent Baalke -------- 2/04/20 -- 1-15 (6-10 in '19)
KC ---- Brett Veach -------- 7/20/17 -- promoted from within
LVR -- Champ Kelly -------- interim
LAC -- JoJo Wooden ------- interim
Rams - Les Snead ---------- 2/10/12 --7-8-1 (2-14 in '11)
Mia--- Chris Grier ---------- 1/4/16 -- promoted from within
Minn - Kwesi Adofo-Mensah - 1/26/22 -- 13-4 won div (8-9 in '21)
Pats -- Bill Belichick -------- 1/27/00 -- 5-11 (8-8 in '99)
NO --- Mickey Loomis ----- 5/14/02 -- promoted from within
NYG -- Joe Schoen --------- 1/21/22 -- 9-7-1 wild card (4-13 in '21)
NYJ --- Joe Douglas -------- 6/07/19 -- 7-9 (4-12 in '18)
Pitt --- Omar Khan --------- 5/24/22 -- promoted from within
Phil --- Howie Roseman ---- 6/13/19 -- promoted from within
SF ---- John Lynch ---------- 1/29/17 -- 6-10 (2-14 in '16)
Sea --- John Schneider ----- 1/18/10 -- 7-9 won div (5-11 in '09)
TB ---- Jason Licht ---------- 1/21/14 -- 2-14 (4-12 in '13)
Tenn -- Ran Carthon -------- 1/18/23 -- new hire
Wash - Martin Mayhew ----- 1/21/21 -- 7-10 (7-9 in '20)

 

[SlowGettingUp]

As far as spending money on the patriot business

1) the cap is the same for everyone.

The Patriots have had among the lowest cash spends the last few years, and they have the highest total cap space of any team over the next three years. So all the other teams used their League-supplied credit cards (void years) to sign expensive players and the Patriots did not.

 

[borg]

I'm curious what kind of antics and subterfuge have taken place within the walls of Gillette recently.
IT guys installing cameras, building firewalls, changing passwords, capturing data....all in anticipation of a Belichick final exit ?
Security guards doing pat downs on Belichick's Friends & Family contingent as they exit the office each evening?
Didn't someone report BB ordered a Turbo Shredder 3000 in November? (I could be mistaken)
No doubt BB & Kraft don't share similar views these days on what Property of the New England Patriots means

Good future thread: Which Patriots free agents will Bill target/sign for his new team

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

WE HAVE NO FREE SAFETY

We can't score points

 

[Ring 6]

My very first post said this is what *I* would do if i was Kraft, i never said this is what i think will happen. It all depends on how the conversation goes, yeah if Kraft goes in "you suck, you f ed everything up, this team is trash" Bill would be like f you back, but if it goes "we appreciate everything you have done in the past 25 years, 6 superbowls team valued at Billions, great work. We want you in the building, we value your experience and football knowledge. We also want to start transitioning to the next step in our franchises story and hope you will be a part of that."

Why would Bill accept that? I already answered this, he probably recognizes its time to transition, he has 2 years of coaching left, 3 at the absolute outside most, he enjoys coaching with his kids, not having to change houses, schedules, routines, relationships with players and coaches. This allows him to still be a valued contributing member of the team he helped build and extends his career as long as he feels like being around. He might enjoy being able to research, deep dive into whatever topic he chooses to.

I dont know Bill on a personal level im just saying there are things that might appeal to him, and its a respectful way to keep him around while acknowledging that this rebuild has crashed and burned.

So if you ****can him with a smile on your face, he will suddenly decide he doesn’t want to coach and wants to be grandpa in the rocking chair for the people who his job is given to? The guy who ran every aspect of the organization gets told fu (it doesn’t matter if you put lipstick on the pig) and says “Thank you, would it be ok if I kept showing up at work in case the guy you give my job to has any questions?”
I cannot imagine any self respecting person accepting that.

 

[upstater1]

The Patriots have had among the lowest cash spends the last few years, and they have the highest total cap space of any team over the next three years. So all the other teams used their League-supplied credit cards (void years) to sign expensive players and the Patriots did not.

Did you have a look at free agency?

No good players go to FA anymore.

Teams are doing a couple things: signing their QBs to massive contracts which eats up the cap (Patriots are obviously not doing that) or retaining their top players.

The Patriots' top players other than Judon are mostly all in their first contracts (Barmore, Rham, Dugger, Keion White, Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Onwenu).

There's no point in signing guys like McGlinchey who will eat up $87m of the salary cap for subpar performance, not when you have to pay a bunch of guys for their second contracts.

If we were bringing in Tee Higgins and Kirk Cousins, I would feel differently.

When a team doesn't have a QB and is filled with a bunch of young players, it's just not going to have a big spend.

These days, when you have a very good QB on their 1st contract, you're going to redo their deal in their 3rd year, to the tune of $50m per.

I expect the Patriots to sign their own young guys to huge deals this offseason, maybe one top WR like Higgins or Pittman, and then try to deal with our older vets like Henry, Peppers, and the like