Gaffney vs. Jackson?

[spacecrime]

Had similar discussions in another thread.

My take is that while Gaffney and Jackson are competing for snaps, I don't believe it is a true competition for the same position. Gaffney has the flexibility to play all along the line, but isn't a natural fit at flanker opposite Moss. If we see Gaffney getting the majority of the snaps outside opposite Moss, it likely means CJack failed to grab the opportunity and that Gaffney is plan B.

This is true. Generally you want your speed running down the sidelines to take a pair of defenders and at least one safety deep to open up the middle for the slot/TE/RB.

What will be interesting is how the new forceout rule (no force outs) affect patterns. Sideline routes make no sense now as the defender can run in step, let the receiver catch the ball and push the receiver out of bounds before the second foot hits the turf.

 

[Deus Irae]

You're okay with Moss facing triple coverage because it means that "ANY NFL QUALITY PLAYER OPPOSITE MOSS" can get open against single coverage? (For the sake of the argument, I'm willing to accept the absurdity of this blanket statement). This offense is not dependent on, nor should it be the goal, to simply make it easier for the third best receiver on the team to get open when one of the all-time greats is an option. A receiver who is capable of forcing teams to respect the other deep half of the team would allow for Moss to work against "only" two defenders at a time.

1.) Moss had a "deep threat" receiver of the sort that people are raving about on his other side last season. His name was Donte Stallworth. Did that lead to a lot of double covering of Stallworth and single coverage of Moss?

2.) Having Gaffney, or any other receiver, 1-on-1 against an opposing cb doesn't guarantee they'll be open every time. However, they should be able to get open enough to be a net help for the team. Last season, the Patriots' brain trust clearly felt that having Gaffney (a non "deep threat" according to those making these arguments) across from Moss was a better match than having the "deep threat" Stallworth there on the way to setting the NFL record for points scored in a season. However, I'm sure that JSP, Metaphors and yourself know far more about what the Patriots offense needed and needs than that Belichick guy.

The fact that throughout the second half of the season and into the playoffs teams consistently double and triple teamed Moss, when we also saw an upswing in Gaffney's playing time, would seemingly disprove any claims of effective and consistent deep threat ability that you attempt to make regarding Jabar Gaffney, would it not?

I suggest a few things for you on this notion:

1. Go look at the numbers of both Stallworth and Gaffney for the second half
2. List all the players who "consistently" catch passes that are thrown 20+ yards in the air.
3. Compare the defensive abilities of the team played in the first half of the season vs. the second half, keeping in mind that the Chargers stunk until after the Patriots game.

He isn't a deep threat because the other team doesn't respect that threat, otherwise Moss wouldn't have to beat triple coverage as often as you think he actually does.

They do not need someone to run go routes all the time, they need someone who can, with some degree of regularity, beat an opponent, one-on-one, for a deep completion to draw the safety away from Moss's side of the field. Gaffney can take advantage of the intermediate and short stuff, but he doesn't make anyone else better and that is what this discussion is about. For you to argue that he does is ridiculous.

I didn't mention how often Moss beats triple teams, I merely noted that he does it and is defended accordingly no matter who is lined up as the other outside receiver. As for your degree of regularity argument, take the time to go look at all the #2 "deep threat" receivers of the other NFL teams and find out just how often they succeeded according to JSP's metric of receptions on passes that traveled 21+ yards in the air. You can find the data at ESPN.com

As for the discussion being about whether or not Gaffney makes anyone else better, where do you get the notion that such is the question?

 

[Metaphors]

1.) Moss had a "deep threat" receiver of the sort that people are raving about on his other side last season. His name was Donte Stallworth. Did that lead to a lot of double covering of Stallworth and single coverage of Moss?

Ignoring the fact that nobody ever mentioned single coverage of Moss, in Stallworth's 9 starts Moss was held to only 15 touchdowns. Not saying that Stallworth was the only factor in this success, but Moss didn't seem to suffer with Donte across from him.

2.) Having Gaffney, or any other receiver, 1-on-1 against an opposing cb doesn't guarantee they'll be open every time. However, they should be able to get open enough to be a net help for the team.

Ignoring the fact that nobody ever mentioned getting open (or not) against single coverage and ignoring the fact that nobody ever mentioned that Gaffney isn't a productive ("net help") receiver...well, ignoring those points pretty much eliminates what you said. Moving on.

Last season, the Patriots' brain trust clearly felt that having Gaffney (a non "deep threat" according to those making these arguments) across from Moss was a better match than having the "deep threat" Stallworth there on the way to setting the NFL record for points scored in a season.

Ignoring the fact that nobody ever mentioned that giving Gaffney more snaps in place of Stallworth was a bad decision, the discussion is about Gaffney vs CJack. If CJack shows the same hands and route running that Stallworth showed as 2007 progressed, he will most likely not see the field much either.

However, I'm sure that JSP, Metaphors and yourself know far more about what the Patriots offense needed and needs than that Belichick guy.

Ignoring the fact the nobody ever mentioned that Belichick has made poor personnel or scheme decisions, you seem to be the one having the issue with Belichick. Belichick already had Gaffney in 2006 but still started Stallworth over Gaffney opposite Moss in 2007...which is exactly the type of move we are suggesting now. CJack has the ideal skill set (even better than Stallworth) for the wide spot opposite Moss. Obviously he has to earn the role and produce consistently to keep it, but Belichick seems to like the idea of a deep threat opposite Moss.

2. List all the players who "consistently" catch passes that are thrown 20+ yards in the air.
...
take the time to go look at all the #2 "deep threat" receivers of the other NFL teams and find out just how often they succeeded according to JSP's metric of receptions on passes that traveled 21+ yards in the air.

I don't know or care who started the whole "20-30 yard receptions make you a deep threat" deal, but can we please end it now? Pennington can throw that far. That should be all you need to know. Think about it...the max end of that range is like starting at the opposing 31 yard line and NOT REACHING THE END ZONE! Stop the insanity.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ignoring the fact that nobody ever mentioned getting open (or not) against single coverage and ignoring the fact that nobody ever mentioned that Gaffney isn't a productive ("net help") receiver...well, ignoring those points pretty much eliminates what you said. Moving on.

Ok, you're clearly not reading the posts if this is what you came up with. Feel free to read the posts I respond to rather than just attacking my comments by completely ignoring what I write and just making up your own interpretations. I'm sorry that you don't like your statement about Gaffney's stats being disproved, but that's no reason to ignore what others say just so you can attack my comments. You're usually much better than that. Ignoring the fact that your 12:17 am post here was wrong in pretty much every aspect, I'll say goodnight to you.

P.S. Please find anyplace where I claimed that Gaffney's skill set was superior to Jackson's potential skill set. I'd love to see that posting of mine.

 

[Metaphors]

I'm sorry that you don't like your statement about Gaffney's stats being disproved, but that's no reason to ignore what others say just so you can attack my comments.

Find another person on the planet that agrees with your interpretation of Gaffney's stats and then we can continue this discussion.

 

[Deus Irae]

Find another person on the planet that agrees with your interpretation of Gaffney's stats and then we can continue this discussion.

I don't need to find such a person. You made a statement. Your statement was wrong. The interpretation of such stats was NOT your statement.

Look, I don't claim that Gaffney is my ideal choice of a #2 outside receiver opposite Moss. I personally didn't expect Gaffney to beat out Caldwell last season because I didn't view him as doing anything particularly well. I would love Jackson to translate his college game to the NFL and take that spot on the outside. However, what JSP and company have been wanting as a #2 is something that is a rarity and an unnecessary luxury in the NFL. Go back and look at the teams over the past 20 years and look for how many of those teams featured "deep threat" receivers at both outside positions. You'll find surprisingly few. The Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens, Giants, Steelers (modern), Bucs, 49ers, etc... all won Super Bowl titles without such a thing. Moss has been on the two highest scoring teams in NFL history, and each time he did so, he did it with supporting receivers who weren't considered "deep threat" receivers.

 

[JSn]

I never expected to ignite such madness!

Obviously the winner of this role, at least as the season opens, also affects the schemes. If Jackson and rack up the yardage and consistently leave his cover-man behind by 5+ yards, we'll see a good bit of that 2 headed deep threat. Especially if our RB posse (it's starting to look that way) can put some fear in defenses.

If Gaffney wins the role, at least as the season opens, I think it minimizes (potentially) the odds of both long bombs to Moss AND big gains on the ground.
It may be the difference between clock management and exhausting defenses type of offense and splitting D's with the potential to put up big numbers.

I have to think Brady and co. have designs on how the offense would be in a perfect world, and to me that's very possibly 4 WR's, 1 TE (2 Deep threats, 2 mid-field snakes, and the guy you're never sure about but with the size to burn you in the end-zone).
Add to that a credible running threat and you've got defenses who have to be worried over every piece of the field.

So to sum that up: Gaff as "#2" and we're going to have to be better than good at evading coverages when playing solid D's.
Jackson wins, we still have Jabar being awesome IN HIS ELEMENT and VERY GOOD ODDS of seeing open receivers/running holes and very possibly a whole lot less effective pressure on Tom.

Add to that great scenario Tom's generally good PA work and I think we could see our way very close to another points record (not solo records, but a team record).

Just my newbish opinion, mind you. You guys blow my doors off with your FB knowledge. As you were.

 

[Metaphors]

You made a statement. Your statement was wrong.

Which statement are you referring to? And what information did you use to prove it wrong?

 

[Deus Irae]

Which statement are you referring to? And what information did you use to prove it wrong?

Been there, done that, seen the movie. Have a good night because I will not continue to go round and round over something as pointless as this.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Add to that great scenario Tom's generally good PA work and I think we could see our way very close to another points record (not solo records, but a team record).

Just my newbish opinion, mind you. You guys blow my doors off with your FB knowledge. As you were.

Just my 2c but I think (and hope) we wont see nearly as many points as last year. I'd like to see more of the running game, more typical TB dinking and dunking, more out of Watson and Maroney in the passing game. All equals more clock control

I also hope that when games are won in Q3 we aint going for blowouts again. If that happens I want to see some backup guys get some reps like Crable, Jackson, Cassel etc

 

[bradmahn]

Which statement are you referring to? And what information did you use to prove it wrong?

When you said Gaffney doesn't pass the eyeball or stats test for having deep ability.

Only Deus thinks he definitively proved that statement to be incorrect.

 

[TD Ryan2]

yeah, I haven't really read all the arguing going on here.

It is worth nothing that Jabar Gaffney was the 3rd most "efficient" Wide Receiver in the NFL last year.
50 targets, 36 receptions, 72% efficiency.

I'm sure Brady feels like Gaf catches the ball every time he throws it to him... because he does.

The only two ahead of Gaf were Anthony Gonzales (51/37/73%) and Wes Welker (145/112/77%).

I have been at camp this year.
Chad Jackson looks like a beast... a freakin' specimen.
But it's all just potential right now.

Until further notice, Gaf is the guy Brady will rely on.

also, thank you Chris Eakin of fftoday.com for the article that provided these statistics.

 

[PatsFan37]

yeah, I haven't really read all the arguing going on here.

It is worth nothing that Jabar Gaffney was the 3rd most "efficient" Wide Receiver in the NFL last year.
50 targets, 36 receptions, 72% efficiency.

I'm sure Brady feels like Gaf catches the ball every time he throws it to him... because he does.

The only two ahead of Gaf were Anthony Gonzales (51/37/73%) and Wes Welker (145/112/77%).

I have been at camp this year.
Chad Jackson looks like a beast... a freakin' specimen.
But it's all just potential right now.

Until further notice, Gaf is the guy Brady will rely on.

also, thank you Chris Eakin of fftoday.com for the article that provided these statistics.

Part of that efficiency is the receiver, in the right place at the right time. And part of that is (a) a demanding QB who takes your head off if you're in the wrong place and (b) an accurate QB who, on short passes, can knock the eye out of a gnat.

No coincidence who the QBs are for the top 3 receivers. Not to take away too much from Gaffney, but could that efficiency title belong to any of about 50 or 60 good NFL receivers with decent hands who're willing to dedicate themselves to studying film and listening to a HOF QB? (Gaff won one of the offseason awards -- he is absolutely dedicating himself).

The flip side of the Gaffney coin is Doug Gabriel, apparently a more talented receiver who didn't give a crap. Boy, did he miss an opportunity!

 

[JoeSixPat]

Just my 2c but I think (and hope) we wont see nearly as many points as last year. I'd like to see more of the running game, more typical TB dinking and dunking, more out of Watson and Maroney in the passing game. All equals more clock control

I also hope that when games are won in Q3 we aint going for blowouts again. If that happens I want to see some backup guys get some reps like Crable, Jackson, Cassel etc

I understand what you're trying to say, but seeing as the team's theme is "finish" for this season, my assumption is that the team won't let their foot off the gas pedal and will be even less concerned about accusations of "running up the score" than before.

That being said, I'm sure "finish" includes being open to opportunities for saving some gas for the playoffs and Super Bowl.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I guess this is a foregone conclusion now. Gaffney is the man

 

[PittPatriot]

I just like hearing Brady audible "Jab! Jab!"
Nothing cool like that for Chad Jackson.