Free Agent Targets 2019

[mgteich]

You give the choice of restructure or cut. I expect a 3rd alternative for all of them: extend.

• D. McCourty -- $13.3Mil cap hit. Restructure or cut ($4mil of dead money)
• Gronk -- $11.9mil cap hit. Restructure or cut ($2mil of dead money)
• Hightower -- $10.9mil cap hit. Restructure or cut ($5mil of dead money
• D. Allen - $7.4Mil cap hit. Cut ($0 dead money)

Those four alone total $43.5mil in cap space and only $11mil in dead money. The Pats CAN have a ton of space if they want it.

 

[Brandon Manning]

McCourty is a heart and soul type player. Letting him go (Cut) would be a major mistake. He's just as good as Harrison in his prime imo.

 

[DaBruinz]

This offseason will be a success if they retain Flowers. His versatility & production make him a perfect fit for the Pats D. IMHO, Flowers & McGinist are the best D-lineman of the BB era. I think he'd be well worth the $18M that it would take to franchise him.

I think you are forgetting Seymour and Wilfork.

 

[Joey007]

Had a light bulb flash in my head.

Bruce Arians is a coach that generally does not utilize TE’s, and now he coaches a team with two very talented ones in Brate and Howard.

Could he be willing to trade off Cameron Brate? I’d be all in on that move.

 

[Uptown]

Had a light bulb flash in my head.

Bruce Arians is a coach that generally does not utilize TE’s, and now he coaches a team with two very talented ones in Brate and Howard.

Could he be willing to trade off Cameron Brate? I’d be all in on that move.

Said the same exact thing a while back! I’d definitely love to acquire O.J....without the glove.

 

[maineman209]

• D. McCourty -- $13.3Mil cap hit. Restructure or cut ($4mil of dead money)
• Gronk -- $11.9mil cap hit. Restructure or cut ($2mil of dead money)
• Hightower -- $10.9mil cap hit. Restructure or cut ($5mil of dead money
• D. Allen - $7.4Mil cap hit. Cut ($0 dead money)

Those four alone total $43.5mil in cap space and only $11mil in dead money. The Pats CAN have a ton of space if they want it.

Based on my own (very rough) calculations ...

A 1-year extension for Gronk could reduce his 2019 cap hit by about $4m.
A 1-year extension for DMac could reduce his cap hit by about $5m.
A 1-year extension for Brdy could reduce his cap hit by about $6m.
A 2-year extesnion for D. Allen could reduce his cap hit by about $5m.
... he's young enough and a good enough blocking TE to keep him around for another three season at ~$3m/season, especially if Gronk retires. If Gronk retires, AND Allen is cut,the Pats are suddenly down to basically ZERO experience at TE.

That's ~$20m in additional cap space (gross savings).

Clayborn seems likely (to me) to be cut, saving another $4m (gross).

Hightower, I honestly don't know. At times this season, he's been really good. But KVN has been to most productive LB on the field for the Pats this season by a huge margin - the Pats' leading tackler with 92 ... 2nd most total pressures to Flowers (39 to Flowers' 63) ... decent enough in coverage now. The question, though, is how much of KVN's 2018 success has been due to HT being on the field with him for nearly every snap (unlike in 2017)? HT could be one of those "glue" guys who makes everything aournd him work better.

OTOH, HT's cap hit is pretty large ... $11m each year for 2019 & 2020, and the Pats save a net of about $5.4m by trading him (Patricia in DET?). Bentley was very good (starter quality) before going to IR. Roberts has been good enough in a rotational role this season, and will still be cheap enough in 2019 to keep him for the final year of his rookie deal. And, KVN's current contract expires at the end of the 2019 season.

So, there are some reasons to trade HT, too. But I don't think the Pats would make that move until Flowers is signed. If Flowers goes to another team for a ridiculous payday, I think the Pats keep HT (and possibly even Clayborn).

 

[maineman209]

Had a light bulb flash in my head.

Bruce Arians is a coach that generally does not utilize TE’s, and now he coaches a team with two very talented ones in Brate and Howard.

Could he be willing to trade off Cameron Brate? I’d be all in on that move.

Brate would hit the 2019 cap for $7m - fully guaranteed after the 5th day of the new league year - and for about $7m per year after that through 2023.

He wasn't nearly as productive in 2018 (only 289 yds) after undergoing hip surgery in January, although he still caught 6 TDs.

My mistake about Brate's hip surgery ... He just had the surgery THIS JANUARY, not last January.

His stats were apparently down this season because he needed the surgery.

He turns 28 in July.

 

[Joey007]

Brate would hit the 2019 cap for $7m - fully guaranteed after the 5th day of the new league year - and for about $7m per year after that through 2023.

He wasn't nearly as productive in 2018 (only 289 yds) after undergoing hip surgery in January, although he still caught 6 TDs.

He turns 28 in July.

That’s a tough hit. But isn’t that roughly what we’re paying Allen? How good of a blocker is Brate?

 

[mgteich]

I don't understand your analysis of LB's. I presume that Flowers will be re-signed or that we will sign another $10-15M AAV DE. Clayborne will either stay through camp competition, or be cut and replaced with a free agent at approximately the same AAV (with some cap savings). And yes, we will look to draft a DE along with a DT or 2.
========
LINEBACKERS
Hightower is signed through 2020
Van Noy is signed through 2019
Robert is signed through 2019

Your idea seems to be to do nothing regarding Van Noy and Roberts, and to trade Hightower if Flowers is kept. This would leave us with 2 LB's on their contract years and no other linebackers with even a season's experience. This would leave us likely weaker in 2019 and hoping for a miracle for 2020.

I strongly disagree.

I would EXTEND Hightower saving $2.25M (per Miguel). You would try to replace Hightower for $5M. I think that even that is bargain.

I would EXTEND Van Noy saving $1.6M and getting more stability of roster for 2020.

I would even EXTEND Roberts although that isn't likely. He would be advantaged by testing the free agent market after the 2019 season.

We want to have improvement in our front 6. The way to do that is NOT to break up what we have. We will add Bentley. We should also add a draft pick or two, and a free agent to compete in camp. The hope is NOT to break up our linebacking corps. The goal is improvement and transition over 2019-2021.

Based on my own (very rough) calculations ...

A 1-year extension for Gronk could reduce his 2019 cap hit by about $4m.
A 1-year extension for DMac could reduce his cap hit by about $5m.
A 1-year extension for Brdy could reduce his cap hit by about $6m.
A 2-year extesnion for D. Allen could reduce his cap hit by about $5m.
... he's young enough and a good enough blocking TE to keep him around for another three season at ~$3m/season, especially if Gronk retires. If Gronk retires, AND Allen is cut,the Pats are suddenly down to basically ZERO experience at TE.

That's ~$20m in additional cap space (gross savings).

Clayborn seems likely (to me) to be cut, saving another $4m (gross).

Hightower, I honestly don't know. At times this season, he's been really good. But KVN has been to most productive LB on the field for the Pats this season by a huge margin - the Pats' leading tackler with 92 ... 2nd most total pressures to Flowers (39 to Flowers' 63) ... decent enough in coverage now. The question, though, is how much of KVN's 2018 success has been due to HT being on the field with him for nearly every snap (unlike in 2017)? HT could be one of those "glue" guys who makes everything aournd him work better.

OTOH, HT's cap hit is pretty large ... $11m each year for 2019 & 2020, and the Pats save a net of about $5.4m by trading him (Patricia in DET?). Bentley was very good (starter quality) before going to IR. Roberts has been good enough in a rotational role this season, and will still be cheap enough in 2019 to keep him for the final year of his rookie deal. And, KVN's current contract expires at the end of the 2019 season.

So, there are some reasons to trade HT, too. But I don't think the Pats would make that move until Flowers is signed. If Flowers goes to another team for a ridiculous payday, I think the Pats keep HT (and possibly even Clayborn).

Based on my own (very rough) calculations ...

A 1-year extension for Gronk could reduce his 2019 cap hit by about $4m.
A 1-year extension for DMac could reduce his cap hit by about $5m.
A 1-year extension for Brdy could reduce his cap hit by about $6m.
A 2-year extesnion for D. Allen could reduce his cap hit by about $5m.
... he's young enough and a good enough blocking TE to keep him around for another three season at ~$3m/season, especially if Gronk retires. If Gronk retires, AND Allen is cut,the Pats are suddenly down to basically ZERO experience at TE.

That's ~$20m in additional cap space (gross savings).

Clayborn seems likely (to me) to be cut, saving another $4m (gross).

Hightower, I honestly don't know. At times this season, he's been really good. But KVN has been to most productive LB on the field for the Pats this season by a huge margin - the Pats' leading tackler with 92 ... 2nd most total pressures to Flowers (39 to Flowers' 63) ... decent enough in coverage now. The question, though, is how much of KVN's 2018 success has been due to HT being on the field with him for nearly every snap (unlike in 2017)? HT could be one of those "glue" guys who makes everything aournd him work better.

OTOH, HT's cap hit is pretty large ... $11m each year for 2019 & 2020, and the Pats save a net of about $5.4m by trading him (Patricia in DET?). Bentley was very good (starter quality) before going to IR. Roberts has been good enough in a rotational role this season, and will still be cheap enough in 2019 to keep him for the final year of his rookie deal. And, KVN's current contract expires at the end of the 2019 season.

So, there are some reasons to trade HT, too. But I don't think the Pats would make that move until Flowers is signed. If Flowers goes to another team for a ridiculous payday, I think the Pats keep HT (and possibly even Clayborn).

 

[Sciz]

That’s a tough hit. But isn’t that roughly what we’re paying Allen? How good of a blocker is Brate?

That’s fake money in the last year of Allen’s contract. There was never really any situation where he’d get the $7.4 million, so it’s not really a good benchmark for any comparisons.

 

[mgteich]

That’s fake money in the last year of Allen’s contract. There was never really any situation where he’d get the $7.4 million, so it’s not really a good benchmark for any comparisons.

The comparison should be to Gronk who he would be replacing.

Allen should expect to get $3-4M.

 

[maineman209]

That’s a tough hit. But isn’t that roughly what we’re paying Allen? How good of a blocker is Brate?

I really don't know much about Brate's blocking. @reamer or @long distance might, though.

The thing with Allen (2019 cap hit = $7.4m) is that his contract is up at the end of 2019, so he could be extended in the spring to reduce his hit to $3m per season or less. That's about the going rate for a "blocking TE", and we know Allen is one of the best.

Looking at the overall TE picture, Gronk may stay or may retire. If he retires, there's money to pay a replacement, but I'd still want to keep Allen for his experience in the Pats system (that Brate wouldn't have). And there's still be a third TE - likely a youngster with little or no NFL experience, much less Pats'-specific experience - unless Anderson sticks around and/or Hollister is better than we know (in the coaches' eyes).

In any case, with Brate the Pats would be taking on a guaranteed $7m cap hit for 2019 (plus giving up a draft pick), so they'd need to be certain he could contribute (and NOT turn out like Allen).

 

[maineman209]

I don't understand your analysis of LB's. I presume that Flowers will be re-signed or that we will sign another $10-15M AAV DE. Clayborne will either stay through camp competition, or be cut and replaced with a free agent at approximately the same AAV (with some cap savings). And yes, we will look to draft a DE along with a DT or 2.

As I've noted in many previous posts, the cap savings for cutting Clayborn is the same whether it happens in March or at the end of August, ergo, he's likely to be kept through Camp or until the Pats feel they have an adequate replacement under contract (sorry that I didn't explicitly reiterate that point in this particular post) . That replacement could be another experienced free agent, I suppose, although I can't name anyone specific (so there's a chance such a free agent isn't yet available, and may not be this year). It might also be a rookie draftee. Lotsa different ways that could go.
========

LINEBACKERS
Hightower is signed through 2020
Van Noy is signed through 2019
Robert is signed through 2019

Your idea seems to be to do nothing regarding Van Noy and Roberts, and to trade Hightower if Flowers is kept. This would leave us with 2 LB's on their contract years and no other linebackers with even a season's experience. This would leave us likely weaker in 2019 and hoping for a miracle for 2020.

I strongly disagree.

I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. I didn't recommend anything wrt the contracts of KVN or Roberts one way or the other. I merely stated that both their contracts expire at the end of 2019, carrying the implication (I hope) that a decision will need to be made, and I mused that such a decision may (or may not) relate to the expense of HT's contract which, in turn, may relate to what happens with Flowers (IOW, if Flowers' bolts for another team, that may - or may not - increase HT's value to the front-7 roster.

Again, I'm exploring possibilities and possibly interdependent variable, NOT making any recommendation.

I would EXTEND Hightower saving $2.25M (per Miguel). You would try to replace Hightower for $5M. I think that even that is bargain.

I would EXTEND Van Noy saving $1.6M and getting more stability of roster for 2020.

I would even EXTEND Roberts although that isn't likely. He would be advantaged by testing the free agent market after the 2019 season.

I never said anything of the sort (wrt the bolded part), and I'm not even sure how you read that into what I wrote.

Personally, I would also extend both KVN and Roberts, but that was kinda outside the scope of what I was originally trying to address in the post I was responding to ("pay cut or cut" various players).

We want to have improvement in our front 6. The way to do that is NOT to break up what we have. We will add Bentley. We should also add a draft pick or two, and a free agent to compete in camp. The hope is NOT to break up our linebacking corps. The goal is improvement and transition over 2019-2021.

Just to be clear, I am not advocating for breaking up the current LB corps in my post. I am merely leaving the door open to the possibility that the Pats may have a different view, by speculating on various ways things could go.

Apparently, I need a refresher course in how to write clearly, since my posts seem to be misinterpreted so frequently by so many people.

 

[mgteich]

It is good see us on the same page with regard to extending VanNoy and Roberts. These extensions, Bentley, Sam and a couple of draft choices give us an OK corps if Hightower loses another step next year.

For me, the status of Hightower isn't tied to any other player, except that keeping him would be critical in the absence of extensions to Van Noy and Roberts. Either Hightower is worth his new money or he isn't. I think that he is.

To me, whether we sign Flowers or someone else to be our top DE doesn't affect our decision regarding Hightower. Flowers or his replacement will likely cost about $10M in the 2019 cap. Whoever comes in will benefit from Hightower being here.
======
You stated that we would save $5.4M by trading Hightower. I understand that you didn't recommend this. For me, I try to oppose the presentations of such ideas.
whether they are "proposals" or not. Your conclusions were

"So, there are some reasons to trade HT, too. But I don't think the Pats would make that move until Flowers is signed."

"If Flowers goes to another team for a ridiculous payday, I think the Pats keep HT (and possibly even Claiborne)."

So, to be clear, I strongly disagree with this analysis. Unless the team simply believes that Hightower isn't worth the money, and that the $5.4M can be used toward finding someone else, there is NO reason to trade Hightower. I would NOT think that there were reasons to trade Hightower if Flowers i signed.

And, sure if Flowers goes, it would be even more reason to keep Hightower.
=========
And yes, my bottom line is that considering whether to trade Hightower without first at least extending VanNoy and Roberts is indeed a discussion of breaking up our LB corp and rebuilding within a year.

Sue our LB needs young help. For me, Hightower, VanNoy, high draftee, Bentley, Roberts is a good start. And yes, I'm fine with an additional upgrade.
=====
DEFENSIVE LINE
There is more helped needed here, and I agree that Clayborne should stay until we get an upgrade, which may not happen.

DE: Flowers (or another top DE free agent), Clayborne, high draft choice, Wise, Rivers

DT: Guy, Butler, high draft choice, Brown (or Shelton or a free agent)

As I've noted in many previous posts, the cap savings for cutting Clayborn is the same whether it happens in March or at the end of August, ergo, he's likely to be kept through Camp or until the Pats feel they have an adequate replacement under contract (sorry that I didn't explicitly reiterate that point in this particular post) . That replacement could be another experienced free agent, I suppose, although I can't name anyone specific (so there's a chance such a free agent isn't yet available, and may not be this year). It might also be a rookie draftee. Lotsa different ways that could go.
========


I'm not sure what you're disagreeing with. I didn't recommend anything wrt the contracts of KVN or Roberts one way or the other. I merely stated that both their contracts expire at the end of 2019, carrying the implication (I hope) that a decision will need to be made, and I mused that such a decision may (or may not) relate to the expense of HT's contract which, in turn, may relate to what happens with Flowers (IOW, if Flowers' bolts for another team, that may - or may not - increase HT's value to the front-7 roster.

Again, I'm exploring possibilities and possibly interdependent variable, NOT making any recommendation.



I never said anything of the sort (wrt the bolded part), and I'm not even sure how you read that into what I wrote.

Personally, I would also extend both KVN and Roberts, but that was kinda outside the scope of what I was originally trying to address in the post I was responding to ("pay cut or cut" various players).



Just to be clear, I am not advocating for breaking up the current LB corps in my post. I am merely leaving the door open to the possibility that the Pats may have a different view, by speculating on various ways things could go.

Apparently, I need a refresher course in how to write clearly, since my posts seem to be misinterpreted so frequently by so many people.

 

[maineman209]

Brate would hit the 2019 cap for $7m - fully guaranteed after the 5th day of the new league year - and for about $7m per year after that through 2023.

He wasn't nearly as productive in 2018 (only 289 yds) after undergoing hip surgery in January, although he still caught 6 TDs.

He turns 28 in July.

My mistake about Brate's hip surgery ... He just had the surgery THIS JANUARY, not last January.

His stats were apparently down this season because he needed the surgery.

 

[maineman209]

It is good see us on the same page with regard to extending VanNoy and Roberts. These extensions, Bentley, Sam and a couple of draft choices give us an OK corps if Hightower loses another step next year.

For me, the status of Hightower isn't tied to any other player, except that keeping him would be critical in the absence of extensions to Van Noy and Roberts. Either Hightower is worth his new money or he isn't. I think that he is.

To me, whether we sign Flowers or someone else to be our top DE doesn't affect our decision regarding Hightower. Flowers or his replacement will likely cost about $10M in the 2019 cap. Whoever comes in will benefit from Hightower being here.
======
You stated that we would save $5.4M by trading Hightower. I understand that you didn't recommend this. For me, I try to oppose the presentations of such ideas.
whether they are "proposals" or not. Your conclusions were

"So, there are some reasons to trade HT, too. But I don't think the Pats would make that move until Flowers is signed."

"If Flowers goes to another team for a ridiculous payday, I think the Pats keep HT (and possibly even Claiborne)."

So, to be clear, I strongly disagree with this analysis. Unless the team simply believes that Hightower isn't worth the money, and that the $5.4M can be used toward finding someone else, there is NO reason to trade Hightower. I would NOT think that there were reasons to trade Hightower if Flowers i signed.

And, sure if Flowers goes, it would be even more reason to keep Hightower.
=========
And yes, my bottom line is that considering whether to trade Hightower without first at least extending VanNoy and Roberts is indeed a discussion of breaking up our LB corp and rebuilding within a year.

Sue our LB needs young help. For me, Hightower, VanNoy, high draftee, Bentley, Roberts is a good start. And yes, I'm fine with an additional upgrade.
=====
DEFENSIVE LINE
There is more helped needed here, and I agree that Clayborne should stay until we get an upgrade, which may not happen.

DE: Flowers (or another top DE free agent), Clayborne, high draft choice, Wise, Rivers

DT: Guy, Butler, high draft choice, Brown (or Shelton or a free agent)

Again, I was responding to a post suggesting that Gronk, DMac, Allen and Hightower take pay cuts or be cut, in order for the Pats to increase cap space. As is typical of such posts (that have been made by many others), it doesn't weigh the relative values of such moves in the larger context of the entire roster and the annual re-building process, nor does it suggest any specific purposes for the Pats to create that much cap space.

So, I was merely attempting to (1) demonstrate that, if opening more cap space is the goal, there is an alternative for the Pats to simply cutting Hightower, since he still appears to have value (much of which may be non-obvious), and (2) to outline that potential value (from a couple different perspectives) in the context of just some of what I think I understand about the specifics related to the Pats' roster and cap space circumstances in 2019, and (by implication) beyond 2019.

I understand that I'm a total f**king idiot for attempting to help folks to broaden their perspective on such issues, but my instinct to do so is really strong. Apparently, I have failed miserably in that attempt since so much of what I wrote has been taken in an entirely unintended direction.

Also, I need to vent about a pet peeve here. I AM NOT A PART OF THE PATRIOTS ORGANIZATION. I have no personal investment in the organization. I am merely another sophomoric external observer. Thus, in recognition of my remote and factually-ignorant perspective, I never, ever say "we" in reference to the Patriots or how they may (or may not) value their own players, external free agents, college prospects, or how they may process those values and variables through their own perspective on current and future cap space and roster goals.

I also try diligently to avoid predicting what the Pats "will" do or "won't" do, since all of that is a "black box" to me. The best I can do is to speculate broadly about the input variables and then sit back and observe an annual "experiment" run its course (an experiment over which I have absolutely no control).

I try really hard to be clear about the fact that I'm merely speculating about those values and processes - and often presenting multiple possibilities for what the Pats' own perspective may (or may not) be. I put a lot of time and effort into deciding how to express that as clearly as possible (too much time, actually), while also keeping in mind that many of my posts already go way beyond the "tl,dr" threshold for a fan forum. So, sometimes for the sake of (relative) brevity, I edit what started out as a paragraph down to one less-than-completely-accurate sentence that begins with "I think". Apparently, even that has been a mistake.

I'm tired. I have other things that I need to be doing instead of re-re-explaining myself. So, I'm going to STFU for awhile.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

 

[SBLIII]

Thomas is a JAG but Yeldon would be a nice complimentary back.

 

[luuked]

I guess the DT visit was more a checkup on how his post surgery rehab is going.

On some level from the teams perspective it would make most sense to sign him early in the offseason/preseason and let him study the playbook, be around Brady for film study while he is rebuilding his leg so he can hit the ground running when he is ready to play again midseason. But that might not be in his interest in terms of financials and leverage.

Yeldon is very intriguing.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Thomas was one of my biggest draft day heartbreaks when McDaniels took him ahead of the Patriots. We were left with some scrub named McCourty instead. I guess it worked out okay. If he's healthy at some point in this season, I would love to finally see him here, although last year's draft binky of yore (Clayborn) didn't exactly set the world on fire.