Fantasy Football thread

[oldrover]

LOL... agree... fantasy football is for the fans of 31 other teams. Here, we're already living the dream.

 

[Simple Jack's Brother]

Maybe

Corey Coleman - Cle - He is 5'11 which may hurt his TD chances but he will have a chance to be Clevelands #2 behind Pryor. I just hate their QB situation though.

Pryor signed with Washington this offseason.

 

[Simple Jack's Brother]

We will see. My issue with Hunt and Williams is Ware and Hyde who are both legit lead backs,

Mixon is more possible than Hunt or Williams IMO though as Hill has been below 4 YPA which tends to be a death sentence for RBs but they seem to like him. Also Bernard could come back strong. I do like Mixon as a player though. It is a situation worth monitoring but right now I am drafting Bernard or Hill not Mixon. He is a guy i think again you watch closely and jump on potentially.

Fair enough. I'm also in a Dynasty league (3 keepers), so i'm taking more of a long-view on Mixon, who might not contribute as much this year as he might next season.

That being said, i still see Mixon taking over workhorse duties eventually this season.

 

[BobDigital]

Pryor signed with Washington this offseason.

Fair enough. I'm also in a Dynasty league (3 keepers), so i'm taking more of a long-view on Mixon, who might not contribute as much this year as he might next season.

That being said, i still see Mixon taking over workhorse duties eventually this season.

Yes i forgot about Pryor going to Washington. Thanks for the correction. About the debate on young backs we can agree to disagree and no one really knows for sure until the season is deep under way. It is all just best guess work. I think Mixon can be really good as well and is a guy who has a ton of talent. In a dynasty league like yours I would be more apt to take a long view as well and that would certainly make him more attractive. As for this season we will need to wait and see but I am not ruling it out. It is certainly possible if things go right for him and other guys in that RB core don't work out as much as i think they should.

 

[BobDigital]

Position - TEs and why you want one early

This will be a very fast read. TEs are one of the few spots where you either get one of the few guys worth starting every week or simply pick one of the 2nd tier guys and hope for a repeat of last year or try to jump on a young player blowing up (not too common in TEs). TE is the spot of the haves and the have nots. If you don't get one you tend to regret it later on as usually the value of the guy you would get in round 4 5 or 6 at WR/RB isn't much better than a guy you could have gotten a round later but when the top TEs are gone the drop off is fairly massive.

Generally the top guys are pretty much agreed upon and in order going into this season it is (the order is in my opinion as they jump around some). Gronk, Kelce, Olson, Reed, Graham

Also Walker, Eifert, Bennet for guys you can plug in and see if they stay healthy or fall off or what. Maybe Cameron Blate but I wouldn't depend on him to repeat last year. Kyle Rudolph could be interesting but i doubt he gets the same number of targets again.

There isn't much strategy here as far as just drafting the guy for value so here are my thoughts on where to draft who. (I got the averages from yahoo)

Gronk - ave draft spot - 24.4 his real value - 20 - not long ago he was thought of as a legit top 10 FF player than injuries hit him last year and now it has swung too far in the other direction. If he stays healthy all off season he is a very reasonable risk after all the top tier guys are gone and some of the safer 2nd tier players. The upside is just too high to ignore him for long.

Kelce - ave draft value - 42.5 his real value - 35 - One thing people forget about Kelce is this. He tends to stay on the field. Be it luck or just well built he has played every game in his 3 seasons and has consistently got good points. The fact he is so safe makes him worth this pick.

Oslon - ave draft spot - his real value - 37.5 (give or take) - Another iron man TE but he is probably starting a downward trend but still has a solid year left with more than the 3 TDs he got last year (worse since his rookie year).

Reed - ave draft spot 42 - his real value - 45 - Young but never seems to play 16 games though he plays most of them. I worry how much Pryor might take away from him but he is too good not to be thrown to while out there. Still a drop off from the top 3 IMO. He is a bit like Gronk but not the same massive upside.

Jimmy Graham - ave draft spot 55 - his real value - 50 - The worst of the top 5 but he will play every week just about. He just probably won't be amazing. A safe but good choice.

Walker - 62.7 (ave) Eifert - 63.8 (ave) Bennett - 66.9 (ave) - pick the last on the board at any spot that is left. Generally no earlier than 70 though if you can help it but if not they are worth getting just to not be in the basement.

Rudolph 107.8 (ave) if all else fails not a bad choice late but really it depends and not getitng him probably won't hurt you much as other players might be better but at least he has a history of being okay.

Usually though what I see happen, and it is sad when i do, is people pass on TE in the 40s and settle for one of Walker/Eifert/Bennett in the 60s when there is a run and they feel pressure to get one and miss out on massive value. Be sure that isn't you as it just puts you at a disadvantage in a spot you don't need to be at one.

 

[BobDigital]

Position - RB and where to find value.

RB is a key spot on any fantasy team and particularly ones with a Flex as a 3rd RB tends to be more valuable than a 3rd or 4th WR though the gap has closed. So much has been written about RBs in the fantasy football world I honestly have little to add but he are a few nuggets.

Starters always have value when when rookies. There are very few times when you should pass over a starting RB. Generally no matter what the team someone will be fed the ball and do well. Right now of the 32 teams there is only 1 team I don't care who the starter is (Giants) but every other starter has a lot of value. Don't go for big names of now role players. Go for the little known starters. They will more often than not out produce and sometimes have huge years.

Also I will say people over look RBs who catch a fair amount outside of PPR leagues. I feel this is a mistake too often made. When 2 backs are fairly close I would be willing to take a slightly worse player if he catches the ball well and the other guy doesn't. Why does this matter? Consistency. There will be times when the run game doesn't work and is abandoned and also times when a team is down a lot. In those situations the pass catching RB can still have a very good day while the mainly between the tackles guy day is done unless he vultures a TD. While the pure runner might have more points at the end of the year the consistent points the pass catching hybrid gives you plays better for the year.

Another important point about RBs is keep a sharp eye on age and when a guy looks like he is starting to regress or is pass 30 it is time to stay away generally. There are very few Frank Gores in this world and you should let other people take the risk of trying to guess when the tires falls off.

Another big thing to keep in mind is great RBs usually have good to great OLs. If you draft a top RB I would always advice picking up his backup and holding on to him the entire year. If he goes down you'd be surprised how much value you retain with the backup and if you invest a 1st or 2nd round pick in that work horse back you would be a fool not to grab the insurance policy especially when you have invested so much. Draft it. Don't wait till the last round either. Someone may pick him up in hopes your guy goes down the for the year.

The last point I will make is try to have your quality depth here.

I make it a point to have no less than 4 starting RBs on my team even if I can only play 2. RBs get injured often and when you don't have quality there you feel it. Also they become good trade chips later.

Players to pick for value - Mark Ingram (Peterson is done so he won't steal his carries IMO), Dalvin Cook (tons of talent and worth a pick), Mike Gillislee (Pats RBs do well if they are any good), Powell (Jets don't have great options and Forte looking old),

Players to avoid - Perkins (just not good), Lynch (Probably just a bit too old), Blount (He might get carries but the wheels aren't there).

 

[BobDigital]

Position Defense - why you should draft one early or not till late

Generally there are 2 kinds of Ds. Those that matter and those that while good you would be better off just picking the D of whoever is playing the Browns, Rams or 49ers.

Last year in yahoo the top D (KC) scored 156 points and the 10th best scored 117. Also the difference between 10th and 6th was from 117 to 124. This tells us 2 things. 1) the difference between the top and and 10th best is a lot. 2) The value is only in the best Ds not the ones just better than 10. You want top 5 or ideally top 3. It is a huge difference of near 40 points from 1st of 10th.

Heck you are unlikely to find a 40 point difference between players anywhere outside of the top 5 or so picks in the total draft to when you get to pick again. This in a way gives the top Ds something akin to a 2nd or 3rd round value over the 10th best D.

While playing with match ups you can get some points and close the gap some but nothing replaces a top D. Don't wait till the run starts. Start the run. If you get out of a draft and don't have one of the top 3 Ds you did something wrong cause there were spots it made sense to grab one but you got too caught up in splitting hairs at other spots.

That is pretty much all you should know about fantasy football as far as big picture and a few tips i personally find useful. As for how i draft here is a complete example.

Lets assume a 10 team league. Here is what your ideal draft should look like as far as positional picks.

r1 RB/WR
r2 WR/RB
r3 RB/WR
r4 WR/RB
r5 TE - remember before I said get a top TE.
r6 RB/WR
r7 WR/RB
r8 D - This is a great spot to pick your D I find. You either get the 1st or 2nd best usually.
r9 at this point maybe think of QBs but still look for value picks and good upside risk.
r10 QB here if not yet just to lock it down and get the best of what is left which should still be good but if you wait too long some people might start picking backup QBs so generally no longer than this.
r11 - Key back up to pick in round 1 if it was a RB. There is probably no one you absolutely need to get here so get it locked down before it is too late and be safe.
r12 - If a particularly good kicker is there may as well. If not simply load up on high reward guys. Most of these players will be cut anyway as things change between weeks 1-3 and guys emerge so try to target guys that can emerge so you don't need to hope you have the best waiver or no one noticed. I promise if you need a backup player you can always find a good dependable vet to do okay for you in a good match up so no worries.

And that in my mind is the ideal kind of draft

 

[ViperGTS]

Anyone doing a league this year?

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I'm down to join a a Patsfan league I'm doing 3 serious leagues and 10 more for fun

 

[ViperGTS]

I'm down to join a a Patsfan league I'm doing 3 serious leagues and 10 more for fun

Sweet Jesus. I can handle only 1 lol. Usually there is a PatsFans one but crickets so far.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I'd get in one

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Fair enough. I'm also in a Dynasty league (3 keepers), so i'm taking more of a long-view on Mixon, who might not contribute as much this year as he might next season.

That being said, i still see Mixon taking over workhorse duties eventually this season.

I Mixon will easily take over the lead role.

Problem is their line.

I think Davis is worth a top 3 pick and maybe the #1. Mariota and that team are ready to explode & will have a deadly offense for years to come. They have 2 really good RB'S, TE'S & WR'S to go along with a very nice Oline.

I think Pryor is a top ten fantasy WR too.

I actually really hate fantasy football and think it hurts the game but I'll admit I like the smack talk & bs and other stuff that goes along with it.

 

[BobDigital]

Well It would be poor form if after making a thread like this i didn't step up to back it up I'm in. A no money league be fun

 

[condon84]

Wow this subforum is empty

I've been in the same 12 team league for 15 years. We just did our draft yesterday and the homer in me have to have multiple Pats players in my team. I drafted Harris, the Pats D, and Nordin . I'm itching to pick up Meyers too.

Winner gets a pretty penny and there are other ways to win $$.