Fantasy Football thread

[BobDigital]

About time to start getting ready for drafts. They are probably 30-50 days away. I wouldn't call myself an expert but I have played for a long time and in many serious leagues with knowledgeable people for real stakes and won/finished high consistently. In this thread I plan to post my thoughts on how to win, what are value moves and general players to look for this year. Of course other people who feel they have good experience are welcome or people who are less experienced or just don't feel as confident can ask questions.

 

[BobDigital]

Position - QBs with basic guidelines.

Generally the rules for QB are this. Wait on that spot. A lot of people will jump on an elite QB in the early rounds and it tends to hurt more than help as in fantasy terms generally Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers don't usually tend to be that different and you get more value going a RB2 a top tier TE or WR2 and picking your QB in round 10.

There is one exception to this rule and that is the rare year when a QB breaks records on TDs or comes close to it,

Brady in 2007, Manning in 2013, ect... Unless a QB has one of those types of years when they get 10 or more TDs than the next best guy (though 2011 was huge for both Rodgers/Brees) it isn't worth picking up a QB early. However when you do hit on such a QB it tends to win you the championship or pretty close.

Is there a QB this year that could be that type of player? Only 1. Tom Brady. If Gronk/Cooks/Edelman and co stay healthy he might be able to sniff 50 TDs making him head and shoulders the best fantasy QB and worth and early flyer. No other QB likely is worth taking that kind of shot on this year. Matt Ryan had a career year and will fall off. Brees/Rodgers won't improve over last year and no one else super sized their O enough to do it.

Do I feel Brady is worth such a shot though? Not really. It is clear to me BB plans to run more this year and invested in guys to do it. He will want to take pressure off Brady and his arm so when the Pats get ahead expect quiet 4th quarters which will hurt his fantasy stock. On the whole wait on your QB. Don't be afraid to pick him last. Wait till Rodgers/Brees/Brady are all off the board.

High value pick ups late? #1 Kirk Cousins #2 Dak Prescott #3 Winston

This should be a year that punting on QB is the right move and waiting to get value late will work out better.

 

[BobDigital]

Tips on value - Rookies

When it comes to rookies usually it is about who will start at RB and how talented they are. The generally rule is if they get fed even if a rookie is unimpressive you won't go wrong. 1st year players is usually where fantasy football is won and lost as a lot of value comes from this group if used right. To indentify

Rookies to draft

Fournette - obviously
Cook - underrated pick up. They have no other back worth a damn in Minnesota and he will see a lot of dump offs as well. I will look to get him for sure for value.
Corey Davis - Matthews/Decker are good options but Davis will be given every chance to take over the #1 WR job as the year goes on.
Zay Jones - He is an interesting pick up. A chance to be #2 right away and Watkins seems to play less game every year. I like his potential value. If Watkins goes down again he has a ton.

Rookies to avoid

Mixon - I like him but Cinci has other options
McCaffery - Same problem. Too many options
Perine - Too many options.
Ross - Cinci too loaded at WR
Mike Williams - Nope. He won't be that good.

Maybe - Marlon Mack. You're first impression is no doubt "who?" Fair enough. Who is he is a rookie RB draft on Indy. Indy who has a 34 year old Frank Gore as the lead back and the best backup option is Christine Michael. I wouldn't draft this guy but a name to watch very VERY closely. He could go from "who" to 1000 yard back very easily.

 

[Drewski]

Position - QBs with basic guidelines.

Generally the rules for QB are this. Wait on that spot. A lot of people will jump on an elite QB in the early rounds and it tends to hurt more than help as in fantasy terms generally Kirk Cousins or Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers don't usually tend to be that different and you get more value going a RB2 a top tier TE or WR2 and picking your QB in round 10.

There is one exception to this rule and that is the rare year when a QB breaks records on TD or comes close to.

Brady in 2007, Manning in 2013, ect... Unless a QB has one of those types of years when they get 10 or more TDs than the next best guy (though 2011 was huge for both Rodgers/Brees) it isn't worth picking up a QB early. However when you do hit on such a QB it tends to win you the championship or pretty close.

Is there a QB this year that could be that type of play? Only 1. Tom Brady. If Gronk/Cooks/Edelman and co stay healthy he might be able to sniff 50 TDs making him head and shoulders the best fantasy QB and worth and early flyer. No other QB likely is worth taking that kind of shot on this year. Matt Ryan had a career year and will fall off. Brees/Rodgers won't improve over this year and no one else super sized their O enough to do it.

Do I feel Brady is worth such a shot though? Not really. It is clear to me BB plans to run more this year and invested in guys to do it. He will want to take pressure off Brady and his arm so when the Pats get ahead expect quiet 4th quarters which will hurt his fantasy stock. On the whole wait on your QB. Don't be afraid to pick him last. Wait till Rodgers/Brees/Brady are all off the board.

High value pick ups late? #1 Kirk Cousins #2 Dak Prescott #3 Winston

This should be a year that punting on QB is the right move and waiting to get value late will work out better.

Do you agree with the wait approach for QB if you are a league which uses a SuperFlex (Q/R/W/T) basically making it a league that will be, for some, a 2QB roster?

Is a 2 Tier2/3 QBs drafting approach better than an approach that goes 1 Tier1 QB early and a Tier2/3 later on?

I am torn on this more this year than I have been in the past.

 

[Simple Jack's Brother]

Tips on value - Rookies

Rookies to avoid

Mixon - I like him but Cinci has other options
McCaffery - Same problem. Too many options
Perine - Too many options.
Ross - Cinci too loaded at WR
Mike Williams - Nope. He won't be that good.

Maybe - Marlon Mack. You're first impression is no doubt "who?" Fair enough. Who is he is a rookie RB draft on Indy. Indy who has a 34 year old Frank Gore as the lead back and the best backup option is Christine Michael. I wouldn't draft this guy but a name to watch very VERY closely. He could go from "who" to 1000 yard back very easily.

Disagree On Mixon...Bernard is coming off an ACL tear and still isn't yet healthy, and think Mixon will run circles around Hill once the pads come on. Just IMHO though. Agree with most of the others though.

Don't sleep on Kareem Hunt or Joe Williams either.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I would put Mariota in that group as well. They made a point to upgrade the wr core to become more balanced as opposed to run heavy. And I see derrick Henry taking a little more work away from Murray next season especially in goalline work

 

[BobDigital]

@Drewski Absolutely not. Doesn't mean you need to go QB first but get 2 of the top 12-14 or so. In those leagues QBs are very valuable. If other people sleep on QBs then get a 3rd fairly high if one falls for trade bait. Depends what you mean by tier 1 and tier 2. I would say get 2 guys who can get 300 points. They can be found in low tier 2 often and not much worse than tier 1 most years.

 

[BlacknGold77]

Im a massive FSU homer, but I'd be taking Cook (especially in a PPR league).

guy can run inside and is deadly outside and a home run hitter from any distance. plus can spread out and run a full route tree.

As long as Minnesota is smart and gives him the touches, he is my preseason pick for OROY

 

[Drewski]

@Drewski Absolutely not. Doesn't mean you need to go QB first but get 2 of the top 12-14 or so. In those leagues QBs are very valuable. If other people sleep on QBs then get a 3rd fairly high if one falls for trade bait. Depends what you mean by tier 1 and tier 2. I would say get 2 guys who can get 300 points. They can be found in low tier 2 often and not much worse than tier 1 most years.

Basically how I was going to approach it as well.

This league went full 2QB last year (first time for many, but not me) and it wasn't well received. We have bumped it to 1QB and a superflex which I think will lead to some resting on the position to which I hope to take some advantage of.

Thanks for your input.

 

[BobDigital]

Disagree On Mixon...Bernard is coming off an ACL tear and still isn't yet healthy, and think Mixon will run circles around Hill once the pads come on. Just IMHO though. Agree with most of the others though.

Don't sleep on Kareem Hunt or Joe Williams either.

We will see. My issue with Hunt and Williams is Ware and Hyde who are both legit lead backs,

Mixon is more possible than Hunt or Williams IMO though as Hill has been below 4 YPA which tends to be a death sentence for RBs but they seem to like him. Also Bernard could come back strong. I do like Mixon as a player though. It is a situation worth monitoring but right now I am drafting Bernard or Hill not Mixon. He is a guy i think again you watch closely and jump on potentially.

 

[BobDigital]

I would put Mariota in that group as well. They made a point to upgrade the wr core to become more balanced as opposed to run heavy. And I see derrick Henry taking a little more work away from Murray next season especially in goalline work

Maybe. I just think a lot his his TDs will be lost due to their strong running game. Next year for sure cause i think Corey Davis will be a beast. This year? IDK. He didn't throw much last year and it could be a case of not throwing much this year. When a guy like Stafford or Rivers is a lock for 4300 yards then maybe 30 TDs it is hard to say Mariota will keep up with his good RBs vulturing TDs from him.

I just don't see the point in taking a risk when other Tier 3 options are more proven to get you the yards and 25 TDs and don't have a great running game to lean on so will be forced to throw more often even when things go well.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Maybe. I just think a lot his his TDs will be lost due to their strong running game. Next year for sure cause i think Corey Davis will be a beast. This year? IDK. He didn't throw much last year and it could be a case of not throwing much this year. When a guy like Stafford or Rivers is a lock for 4300 yards then maybe 30 TDs it is hard to say Mariota will keep up with his good RBs vulturing TDs from him.

I just don't see the point in taking a risk when other Tier 3 options are more proven to get you the yards and 25 TDs and don't have a great running game to learn on so will be forced to throw more often even when things go well.

Agree on rivers. If Allen can stay healthy his wr core gets a lot better this season.

 

[jmt57]

With the ability to easily customize settings, rules, scoring parameters, starting lineup size, number of teams, etc., in any league on any website, I would caution against absolutely adhering to a list of do's and don'ts.

What is a good strategy in one league can very well be a poor plan in another league.

 

[BobDigital]

With the ability to easily customize settings, rules, scoring parameters, starting lineup size, number of teams, etc., in any league on any website, I would caution against absolutely adhering to a list of do's and don'ts.

What is a good strategy in one league can very well be a poor plan in another league.

Agreed. These are general guidelines though for more conventional leagues. In unconventional ones like 2 QB leagues different rules apply. Of course see the league rules I think for people here to learn more about it you need to start somewhere and for those here to debate general points we need a basis to debate from which is conventional scoring.

But yes always check league rules.

 

[BobDigital]

Position - WRs with basic guidelines.

WR is a tricky position cause your league is just as likely to have 3 WRs, 2 WRs or a Flex - WR/RB/TE changing the value of WRs in your league. All are incredibly common formats. So you should be extra careful to check what kind of league rules you have. Also your league could likely be a PPR (Points per reception) or just general yards and TDs. Be sure about that to.

Basically WR is the spot where league rules must be looked at the most and you should never assume anything more than any other position. That being said there are some good guidelines and tips we can go by when it comes to picking WRs.

The first one is separate WRs into 2 categories. Guys with 200 point potential and those without. There is a clear drop off in WRs and too often people extend for one in the round 3 or 4 when value doesn't fall off much in the next tier.

That means guys like Green, Jones, Beckham, Bryant, Nelson, Evans, Brown, Hilton, M. Thomas are in a league of their own. Once those players are gone there should be no rush to pick the next guy. Particularly if a good RB or top TE is on the board which is generally better value over the minor drop off.

If I were to take a WR is round 4 after all these guys are gone you want to bet on a guy who has reason to be close due to clearly new circumstances for them (ala Brandon Cooks or maybe Brandon Marshall)

Also don't get too caught up in points with last season and project them automatically to this season. TDs fluctuate a lot for WRs and it is not uncommon for some guys to get 6 and the next year 12 and vice versa. If a guy got 170 in your league last year but 11 TDs make sure you don't over value him due to points from last year that were inflated due to TDs. However there are players that tend to not get TDs much (like Edelman) and ones that do (like Nelson) make sure you know which players are consistent here and which go back and forth. Most do go back and forth.

One big key to getting great value in this category is keeping an eye on the 2nd year WRs Most WRs really bloom in year to with a few rare exceptions getting it together year one like Michael Thomas did.

This is a spot where championships can be built and most of your time when looking at WRs should be spent. Keep a close eye in the first 4 weeks and grab anyone who seems to be getting it. They can end up better then guys picked in rounds 5 and 6 a lot of the time. Getting that kind of value for free is huge. However don't just look at 2nd year guys as sometimes 3rd year pop up on occasion. Just worth mentioning.

Picks for 2nd year guys to explode be impact guys this year?

Yes

Hill - KC - His return yards will give him a nice boost but assuming he does just 300 more WRs yards than his rookie 600 he could be in for a pretty good year.
Anderson - NYJ - Who else do they have to pass to? Also can run some which is nice and at 6'3 will have the chance for TDs.

No

Fuller - Hou - Very bad QB play hurts and if anythingk Hopkins bounces back
Shepard - NYG - drafted to be a solid 700 yard guy aand that is what he is. Also Marhsall will steal a lot of targets.
Boyd - Cin - Not enough talent and Green will take away targets being back

Maybe

Corey Coleman - Cle - He is 5'11 which may hurt his TD chances but he will have a chance to be Clevelands #2 behind Pryor. I just hate their QB situation though.

I just listed some of the more obvious names but other guys could be worth a mention as they come out of left field or get injured early then bounce back big (maybe Doctson - Wash... but they have a crowded core) so who knows. The main thing is that is the key thing to watch early on and particularly for teams lacking 3 reliable targets).

 

[BobDigital]

Tips - When to start taking chances and when value isn't valuable.

Generally Fantasy football works with around 8-9 guys you play a week and of that group about 6-7 you play no matter the match up unless they have a bye week. One problem i see a lot of new players and even some vets make is they play safe way too late into the draft. All the good potential value players are going off the board while you pick slightly better than average replacement guys (if you pick them for match up). By about round 8 you should have taken at least 1 risk.

You are so worried about that 1 extra point you might get on a bye week that you are missing your chance to get difference makers who will surprise you.

For instance lets say you are in a 3 WR no flex non-PPR league and you already got Nelson and Pryor. Now you need your 3rd. On the board are guys like Edelman, Decker, Josh Brown and you want to take a WR next cause you feel confident in your TE and RBs... Who do you pick? All of them are safe and should get around 130 give or take about which is fine. Who do you pick?

The answer is none. If you wait a few rounds the value falls between maybe 130 to 125-120 points for that 3rd spot which isn't much. So that means it is time to buy lotto tickets.

In this situation I look to draft the boom or bust guys in Brandon Marshall or Kevin White or rookie Corey Davis and bet by he gets it fast. Picking like this might hurt you slightly but the loss is small but the upside is huge. These are guys is is not unthinkable to have 160 point years for what you would lose which would be very very small.

This same rule also applied to RBs but it is easier to talk about it in the context of 1 position and it does apply less the RBs as you want to play a bit more safe and just pick starters as there is no easy path for a 2nd or 3rd RB to rise up and show his stuff injuries aside or absolutely ineffective play by the guy above him. Also you should have 2 RBs anyway before it is time to take shots but that doesn't mean don't take shots.

Just to give you an example of how and when shots are taken here is me just making up my draft in a 10 team non-PPR 1 QB 2 RB 3 WR 1 TE 1 D 1 K league.

R1 - Antonio Brown - WR
R2 - LeSean McCoy - RB
R3 - Freeman - RB
R4 - Cooks - WR
R5 - Kelce - TE
R6 - Davlin Cook - RB - Maybe trade bait and injury insurance. Important for RBs.
R7 - I see the WRs i like most gone so i take a risk - Kevin White
R8 - I decide seeing who is up to take another risk - Corey Davis
R9 - Finally without losing much value I play it safe - Kelvin Benjamin/Golden Tate over who i could have gotten which might be Diggs/D. Thomas

Then back to conventional

R10 - Cousins - QB
r11 - Seahawks - D (by the way get a good D... very important.. we will get to that later)

I am taking MAYBE a little less for some shots at getting a star. This is how leagues are won and lost. However don't be married to the guys you took long shots on. Be quick to cut them if they are not working out to make room for a guy who had a suprisingly good week 1 and/or 2 that seems to have made a 2nd year jump or season ending injuries have given him a chance to prove himself and he is doing it. The draft and first few weeks are the most important in FF.

Edit: unless people fall in rounds 6 and 7 and 8 who shouldn't which is very very rare if you don't take a few risk you are doing something very wrong. I just want to say that in the odd case it does happen.

 

[Wheelman]

No

 

[BobDigital]

No

To what?

 

[Wheelman]

To what?

 

[jmt57]

On the other hand, injuries are inevitable. You can't assume your starters will be available to play the entire season. You need a capable backup not just for injuries, but for bye weeks as well.

Personally in this scenario I would take a player like Edelman over Kevin White or Corey Davis. The decision would be easier if this was a PPR and/or with a Flex position league - but even so, I would still take the known commodity (even with the addition of Brandin Cooks). Since this is a league with three WR, I would want a guy that I have some confidence in. In a ten-team league that's 30 starters; you shouldn't have to wing it on a player you will be starting week in and week out.

With Decker, I don't even take last year into consideration (Jets, injury). Rishard Matthews will draw the opponent's top corner, which means Decker reverts to the role he had in Denver as a very effective #2; that should help his numbers.

Sticking with the Titans, even though Corey Davis was their first round draft choice, how often do rookie receivers do in their first year in the NFL? Very seldom...

Brown (I assume you mean John, not Josh) is a more difficult decision. He has only had one good season, and right now he's dealing with a hamstring injury. If it came down to Brown or Davis, I could see going with the rookie.

I would also look to take RB4 prior to round 12. By then you could be in a position that even all the boom/bust RBs are gone.


Different strategies with no one absolute correct answer to be sure, but that is the way I would approach it.