Fanatical Yankee's Take on Micheal Floyd

[convertedpatsfan]

Hadn't thought about a comp pick.....Let's say it does not work out and Floyd signs with another team next year. Does anyone have any thoughts what round the pick would be? Is it based on performance or time served?

Straight cash, homey.

If he plays 0 snaps for us and isn't active, but signs a $10M deal with someone else, we probably get a 3rd-round comp pick (assuming we don't sign an equivalent FA).

I think the real value is that BB was going to be interested in Floyd and make him an offer. But now he gets him in the building, gets to try him out for a few months before having to make a big financial commitment. Houston would have loved to have been able to do that with Brock, no doubt.

 

[scout]

Straight cash, homey.

If he plays 0 snaps for us and isn't active, but signs a $10M deal with someone else, we probably get a 3rd-round comp pick (assuming we don't sign an equivalent FA).

I think the real value is that BB was going to be interested in Floyd and make him an offer. But now he gets him in the building, gets to try him out for a few months before having to make a big financial commitment. Houston would have loved to have been able to do that with Brock, no doubt.

Wow. Let's say Floyd is a bust this year and is not resigned, but signs a $10M contract another team. BB essentially gets an additional 3rd rounder for picking up the remainder of Floyd's contract? Thus, 1.3 M for an extra 3rd rounder is money well spent.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Basically the Ochocinco package.

Hopefully except for the part where he falls down immediately after (prettily) catching the ball.

 

[deroc5050]

Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Joey Galloway

Were all washed up by the time they came to us. There isn't a great example of a good NFL wide receiver entering New Englands system with less than 3 weeks to go in the regular season.

 

[supafly]

Wow. Let's say Floyd is a bust this year and is not resigned, but signs a $10M contract another team. BB essentially gets an additional 3rd rounder for picking up the remainder of Floyd's contract? Thus, 1.3 M for an extra 3rd rounder is money well spent.

True, although I believe that @convertedpatsfan is overestimating our potential comp pick by about 2 rounds or so, maybe even 3.

There aren't many scenarios where Michael Floyd is going to net us a 3rd round comp pick. He isn't AJ Green or Julio Jones, and he's obviously at the lowest point of his career, judging by the fact that no one else even bothered with a waiver claim. Any talk of 3rd round comp picks for Floyd should be nipped in the bud right now.

 

[supafly]

Were all washed up by the time they came to us. There isn't a great example of a good NFL wide receiver entering New Englands system with less than 3 weeks to go in the regular season.

I can't remember what week Gaffney was picked up back in '06, but he had a good stretch run and produced in the postseason. I don't think it was quite this late in the year, though, and he benefited from seeing more action due to a terrible WR corps. Much different situation this time around.

 

[supafly]

Hadn't thought about a comp pick.....Let's say it does not work out and Floyd signs with another team next year. Does anyone have any thoughts what round the pick would be? Is it based on performance or time served?

It is a formula determined by playing time, contractual value, and additions/subtractions per team in that year's period of free agency.

All talk of comp picks would be moot if, for example, our team made more FA signings than it lost, and/or if Belichick made a splash or two with a couple of mid-top tier signings.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I really would be surprised if floyd doesn't give us anything. He's talented and still in his prime. Just hope he can grasp this offense.

 

[n1997y]

I really would be surprised if floyd doesn't give us anything. He's talented and still in his prime. Just hope he can grasp this offense.

Charlie Weis is saying he already did. At least an earlier version of it. IIRC Weis claimed Floyd already knew about 75% of today's Patriots' offense. That was factoring in the evolution of the Patriots' playbook since Weis was here, years ago.

 

[n1997y]

I think you are wrong but not 100% wrong.

I think when its crunch time they would prefer to play JE11, DA, MM and Hogs before Floyd. They know the offense and are way ahead of him in knowing the sight adjustments, etc. By that definition, he is depth and an a insurance policy.

However, by your logic wouldn't it be best to make sure that the insurance policy can be productive on the field if he is needed (which is kinda now as we don't want Slater being WR3 or even WR4) by giving him some game action in a limited capacity? He needs reps.

I would not be surprised to see him get some snaps in Denver. BB is known to surprise everyone, I've got a feeling this may be one of the times he does, by tossing Floyd into the deep end to see how he does. Don't sell Floyd's knowledge of the offense short, Charlie Weis coached him in this same offensive system at Notre Dame so he should know the fundamentals and maybe even some of the expected adjustments. Kid may get more opportunities sooner than anyone expects. I'm just hoping it's because Belichick is playing mad scientist with team offense not because somebody gets dinged up.

 

[ViperGTS]

Not looking like he's gonna play.



Course could be a smokescreen.

 

[luuked]

Not looking like he's gonna play.



Course could be a smokescreen.

Nah, when he joined the work on Denver was already winding down. There was no reasonable way he would play meaningful snaps in that amount of time. It makes more sense for him to keep studying the fundamentals and maybe get a head start on the Jets game next week.

 

[supafly]

BB is known to surprise everyone, I've got a feeling this may be one of the times he does, by tossing Floyd into the deep end to see how he does.

See, this is where you kind of lose me. Does a week 15 game with postseason implications against a rival who has beaten us twice in a row seem like the time Bill Belichick would be taking unnecessary risks?

 

[Danger Zone]

I never expect to know what Belichick will do even when I'm expecting him to do the unexpected.

 

[luuked]

See, this is where you kind of lose me. Does a week 15 game with postseason implications against a rival who has beaten us twice in a row seem like the time Bill Belichick would be taking unnecessary risks?

People proving again that they have no idea about Belichick. Some posters and also the lazy beat writers often reduce him down to "shocking cuts" or "surprise moves" making it sound like he is the M. Night Shyamalan of coaching.

He makes a move when it makes sense and in what world does it make sense to put a player into an important game that has one practice with the team ?

 

[BradyFTW!]

We could indeed have had a WR with that on his resume: Golden Tate.

Bill instead decided to do his buddy Urban a solid by drafting…Germy Cunnyham.
One of his worst decisions, ever.

It's a real shame the Jets would never hire you, because we could kill two birds with one stone there. They'd suck forever, and your weird delusion that you have any idea wtf you're talking about would dispelled in the most public fashion possible.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

True, although I believe that @convertedpatsfan is overestimating our potential comp pick by about 2 rounds or so, maybe even 3.

There aren't many scenarios where Michael Floyd is going to net us a 3rd round comp pick. He isn't AJ Green or Julio Jones, and he's obviously at the lowest point of his career, judging by the fact that no one else even bothered with a waiver claim. Any talk of 3rd round comp picks for Floyd should be nipped in the bud right now.

Just to clarify, I'm not betting on the 3rd. The comp pick formula has never been made public, so any projection is a guess.

But based on history, it does seem like 3rd round comp is north of $9M+. The 5th round projections are around $6M+. If I had to bet, I would bet on the 4th round, which is what Over The Cap is projecting for the Bengals for both Sanu and Jones.

2017 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/10/2016) - Over the Cap

Floyd is a better player than either of those guys.

Comp picks are not based on talent. Otherwise Brock wouldn't be the top of that list...or in the top 5...or top 10...or top 500...

So it really comes down to what will someone pay for Floyd? Sanu had a bad contract year but still got a deal averaging $6.5M+, which put him in the 4th-round comp pick level. So I think a 5th is way too low. The 3rd may be too high, but the 2017 free agent list overall doesn't look that great (Ryan Fitzpatrick is near the top of this list???) + the salary cap increasing $10-$15M makes me think the 3rd is more likely than the 5th, but my bet is 4th.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I would not be surprised to see him get some snaps in Denver. BB is known to surprise everyone, I've got a feeling this may be one of the times he does, by tossing Floyd into the deep end to see how he does. Don't sell Floyd's knowledge of the offense short, Charlie Weis coached him in this same offensive system at Notre Dame so he should know the fundamentals and maybe even some of the expected adjustments. Kid may get more opportunities sooner than anyone expects. I'm just hoping it's because Belichick is playing mad scientist with team offense not because somebody gets dinged up.

I'm expecting a handful but realistically it's 50/50

 

[supafly]

Just to clarify, I'm not betting on the 3rd. The comp pick formula has never been made public, so any projection is a guess.

But based on history, it does seem like 3rd round comp is north of $9M+. The 5th round projections are around $6M+. If I had to bet, I would bet on the 4th round, which is what Over The Cap is projecting for the Bengals for both Sanu and Jones.

2017 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/10/2016) - Over the Cap

Floyd is a better player than either of those guys.

Comp picks are not based on talent. Otherwise Brock wouldn't be the top of that list...or in the top 5...or top 10...or top 500...

So it really comes down to what will someone pay for Floyd? Sanu had a bad contract year but still got a deal averaging $6.5M+, which put him in the 4th-round comp pick level. So I think a 5th is way too low. The 3rd may be too high, but the 2017 free agent list overall doesn't look that great (Ryan Fitzpatrick is near the top of this list???) + the salary cap increasing $10-$15M makes me think the 3rd is more likely than the 5th, but my bet is 4th.

9m per year AAV or a pact worth 9m total? It almost sounds like you're suggesting that someone like Shane Vereen would bring us a 3rd rounder, which is absurd.

In other words, I think you're oversimplifying things a ton. And the comp pick formula, while still unknown as a whole, has been proven to take overall value of pact into account, along with some playing time incentives and fact that the specific team lose more players in FA than they obtain.

Again, I respect your opinion, but even considering a 4th round comp pick for Michael Floyd (sans big deal, so the Sanu comparisons can safely stop) seems to be quite a stretch. We'll have to see. He's much more likely to be forced into a one year prove it deal than he is a major extension with big money. This is a guy who may see 4-5m dollars total per year right now, and no one is going to give him more than a year or two.

Just my opinion. Not meaning to come off as argumentative.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

9m per year AAV or a pact worth 9m total? It almost sounds like you're suggesting that someone like Shane Vereen would bring us a 3rd rounder, which is absurd.

In other words, I think you're oversimplifying things a ton. And the comp pick formula, while still unknown as a whole, has been proven to take overall value of pact into account, along with some playing time incentives and fact that the specific team lose more players in FA than they obtain.

Again, I respect your opinion, but even considering a 4th round comp pick for Michael Floyd (sans big deal, so the Sanu comparisons can safely stop) seems to be quite a stretch. We'll have to see. He's much more likely to be forced into a one year prove it deal than he is a major extension with big money. This is a guy who may see 4-5m dollars total per year right now, and no one is going to give him more than a year or two.

Just my opinion. Not meaning to come off as argumentative.

Totally fair questions and points. None of what I wrote should be taken as gospel. I'm just reading tea leaves.

My understanding is average per year based on the link. And since you brought him up, Vereen apparently netted us a 6th-round pick with his average contract value of just north of $4M.

The site I was referring to uses a formula for actual average per year which calculates certain incentives and whatnot as you mentioned. More thorough explanation of their methodology here:

The Basics and Methodology of Projecting the NFL's Compensatory Draft Picks - Over the Cap

You're right, I am totally oversimplifying; I am no expert in any of this. Or rather, I'm using the pre-calculated numbers. I'm just passing on what I've read. It's much more complicated if you look at the methodology, as it involves percentiles based on league-wide numbers. Which is why they have Sanu at $6.5M good for a 4th-round comp pick, while Lamar Miller at $6.5M is a 5th-round comp pick.

It looks like they are considering Andre Smith's one-year deal worthy of a 6th-round comp pick:

2017 Compensatory Draft Picks Update (5/10/2016) - Over the Cap

Which makes me think even a big 1-year deal would qualify for a potential mid-round comp pick.

So it's entirely possible he could be worth a 3rd or a 6th, all we're really just discussing is what type of contract he'll get. If it's $9M+ a year, even for one year, that could be a 3rd. If it's $4M like Vereen, probably a 6th. Around $6-7M would put him in 4th/5th territory.

Teams that need WRs will have to choose between Jeffery who is coming off a PED suspension, Floyd and his DUI, DeSean Jackson, or Emmanuele Sanders as their top choices, or look to a draft that has maybe 2 or 3 1st-round guys, none really projected in the top 10 so far that I've seen.

So it's really about how much do you think he'll get average per year? I think he'll get at least $7M, whereas if you're thinking he's 5th/6th, we're thinking maybe a contract in the $4-$6M range.