Every Little Thing May Not Be Alright

[1960Pats]

Okay, let's see if we can discuss the possibility that things may not be alright.

My initial reaction to the future of the team, in spite of the loss of Tom Brady which was a crushing blow that I'm still trying to get used to, was a positive one. But after seeing Bill's infatuation with Cam Newton and the possibility that he may still be here next year, I'm starting to have some doubts.

There's also the realization that this team has a lot more holes to fill than I originally thought. I was trying to give Harry some leeway, but he looks lost and confused out there. That isn't a good sign after all the time he's been here.

Then we have the large amount of players who could walk. If the Pats stay with their lowball approach we could end up losing quite a few good players that would create even more holes to fill.

 

[BadMoFo]

Why would you be banned for seeing what we are all seeing?

 

[Ring 6]

Okay, in order to keep from being banned let's see if we can discuss the possibility that things may not be alright.

My initial reaction to the future of the team, in spite of the loss of Tom Brady which was a crushing blow that I'm still trying to get used to, was a positive one. But after seeing Bill's infatuation with Cam Newton and the possibility that he may still be here next year, I'm starting to have some doubts.

There's also the realization that this team has a lot more holes to fill than I originally thought. I was trying to give Harry some leeway, but he looks lost and confused out there. That isn't a good sign after all the time he's been here.

Then we have the large amount of players who could walk. If the Pats stay with their lowball approach we could end up losing quite a few good players that would create even more holes to fill.

So your argument is spending a bunch of money on a few players creates less holes then spending it wisely across the entire roster?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

My feeling is in this league you’re always a good offseason and a softer schedule away from being a playoff team again. 2000 and 2009 proved this as those were some pretty bad teams(and the 2010 team actually had a brutal schedule) . Obviously getting better at qb is going to be the pressing issue here as a certain #12 is no longer here but draft and fa could very well solve a bulk of our issues. Have some trust in bb to build another winner now that the cap and draft order are the most favorable it’s been possibly ever in the bb era.

 

[captain stone]

The sputum from the hacks at One Patriot Place would beg to differ:

 

[203Pat]

I am with you. I think people are whistling past the graveyard in terms of a rebuild. I see a decent amount of "When we get a quarterback" like we are just signing a right guard to fill right in and keep chugging along. Teams spend decades looking for a QB and some people seem to think that we will just plug a guy in and be in super bowl contention again. Even if we do miraculously get a good QB we have miles to go. We need a legitimate number one receiver and at this point that will either cost a lot or be a first round pick. We also could use another complimentary receiver as well as a starting caliber NFL TE. We have had no production from that spot for two years and it shows. That in addition to how much is needed in the front seven and the fact that Gilmore is likely gone and JC does not look to be ready to be a number one. There are so many holes all over this roster that need attention that I can't see that this is a quick one year turnaround.

 

[upstater1]

I am with you. I think people are whistling past the graveyard in terms of a rebuild. I see a decent amount of "When we get a quarterback" like we are just signing a right guard to fill right in and keep chugging along. Teams spend decades looking for a QB and some people seem to think that we will just plug a guy in and be in super bowl contention again. Even if we do miraculously get a good QB we have miles to go. We need a legitimate number one receiver and at this point that will either cost a lot or be a first round pick. We also could use another complimentary receiver as well as a starting caliber NFL TE. We have had no production from that spot for two years and it shows. That in addition to how much is needed in the front seven and the fact that Gilmore is likely gone and JC does not look to be ready to be a number one. There are so many holes all over this roster that need attention that I can't see that this is a quick one year turnaround.

Teams looked for QBs but they wasted them because they cycled through coaches, didn't have any continuity, fire coordinators, made desperate decisions.

I just described the Bills and the Dolphins and also the Jets.

But look, if you don't jettison Ryan Tannehill because your coach Adam Gase is clueless, you may actually be able to build something--if you hired, say, Vrabel instead of Gase. This is why coaching is so important.

The Bills drafted Rob Johnson at QB, and EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, Nathan Peterman, Trent Edwards, JP Losman, gave up a #1 for Bledsoe. That's 5 #1 picks for a whole bunch of nothing. A million and 1 coaches.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, and yes Cam Newton, Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Chris Chandler are all starting QBs in the Super Bowl.

so, look, we're not going to find another Brady, and we're not going into the wilderness looking for a QB like the Bills and Dolphins did. We'll be like most of the successful teams who have gone to the Super Bowl with perfectly capable guys like the 12 guys I listed above.

 

[jmt57]

To me so much depends on what the final salary cap number is.

This will sound counterintuitive, but in my opinion the lower the cap, the more advantageous the situation is for the Patriots. A lower cap means less breathing room for other teams. That will lead to fewer buyers, and more cap casualties. A tighter cap places a strain on the Saints, Steelers, Packers, Rams, Chiefs, Titans and many other teams.

Until we know that final cap number (and can compare it to other teams), it's really difficult what is feasible. This 2011 free agency is going to be vastly different from what we have become accustomed to. Teams have structured contracts based on caps annually increasing by 10, 12, 15 percent. Right now it looks like there is a strong chance that may not be the case for the next three years.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I think we "overestimate" how easy it is to replace the QB because for most of the year we were hovering at about .500 with the worst starter in the league. Even a mild improvement at that position should go a long way. We don't need to spend too dollar on a FA QB or land a Manning. Get someone on the level of Jimmy G and you have a winning season with BB, in my opinion. He's still the best in the league, but you do still need some semblance of a pro offense to put up points.

So as long as we can improve at QB (nowhere to go but up) I think we're already trending in the right direction.

 

[Boomer B]

History tells us that to win a SB you need a franchise QB, and if not a franchise QB an all time D. In the last 15 years the only non franchise QBs that come to mind are Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and possibly Eli. It’s tough to win with mediocre QB talent.

I think the sooner we get our next franchise QB, the sooner we’ll be able to contend again. The QB is the key though.

 

[upstater1]

History tells us that to win a SB you need a franchise QB, and if not a franchise QB an all time D. In the last 15 years the only non franchise QBs that come to mind are Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and possibly Eli. It’s tough to win with mediocre QB talent.

I think the sooner we get our next franchise QB, the sooner we’ll be able to contend again. The QB is the key though.

But this is harder to say when Brady and Manning account for more than 50% of the Super Bowl victories in those years.

That is all world talent that won't be easy to reproduce. In other words, if not for Brady winning 6, maybe Jake Delhomme takes one home, or Rex Grossman, or Jared Goff. These guys maybe are all Champs if Brady or Peyton don't show up.

 

[scott99]

History tells us that to win a SB you need a franchise QB, and if not a franchise QB an all time D. In the last 15 years the only non franchise QBs that come to mind are Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, and possibly Eli. It’s tough to win with mediocre QB talent.

I think the sooner we get our next franchise QB, the sooner we’ll be able to contend again. The QB is the key though.

I agree with you. What a difference a good QB makes, at ANY level. There’s probably 5 or 6 elite QBs in the NFL, and maybe 5 or 6 elite QBs in college ball. It’s so important to grab the right one, or at least attempt to get that QB. There have been good QBs that catch fire at the right moment, and have a good D to back them up, and then win it all. But having that GREAT QB gives you a better chance.

The Pats have to take that shot. It may take a while to turn this team around, even with the right QB. Look at Herbert in LA, there’s no doubt in my mind that he wins the ROY. BUT, that wasn’t enough to turn the team around into a winner. BUT, they don’t have to look for THAT GUY, they have him already. The Pats need to get their franchise QB. Even if he spends the 1st year on the bench like Mahomes did. They need to secure their guy.

 

[Boomer B]

But this is harder to say when Brady and Manning account for more than 50% of the Super Bowl victories in those years.

That is all world talent that won't be easy to reproduce. In other words, if not for Brady winning 6, maybe Jake Delhomme takes one home, or Rex Grossman, or Jared Goff. These guys maybe are all Champs if Brady or Peyton don't show up.

Fair, but if it wasn’t Manning beating Rex in the SB, it would have been Brady. If it wasn’t Brady bearing Goff, it would have been Mahomes. If it wasn’t Brady beating Delhomme it likely would have been Manning. The best QBs usually win.

 

[upstater1]

Fair, but if it wasn’t Manning beating Rex in the SB, it would have been Brady. If it wasn’t Brady bearing Goff, it would have been Mahomes. If it wasn’t Brady beating Delhomme it likely would have been Manning. The best QBs usually win.

We can reverse this as well though. I'm not sure all that happens. The Rams beat KC that year. I'd bet Carolina beats Indy. Agree about Rex Grossman though. You can also look all the CGs and say, what if Plummer beat Ben R., does Plummer win against Arizona? Or Warner? Case Keenum in '18? Alex Smith and Jay Cutler both lost to eventual SB champs in CGs. But maybe this is all a pointless exercise. Just seems to me that QBs like Brady and Manning are rare, but maybe they're not as rare as I like to think.

 

[FCB02062]

Worst quarterback situation in the league, check. worst wide receiver situation in the league, check. worst tight end situation in the league, check. zero playmakers on offense check. zero playmakers on defense, check.

It is beyond the pale that people on this forum think The Patriots can simply flip a switch, get guys back who opted out, magically have a fantastic draft when they haven't had a good one in 10 years, and then all of a sudden LeapFrog two teams far far far ahead of them in Buffalo and Miami and then become Super bowl contenders next season.

there cannot be one team in the NFL that has gotten less out of their last three or four drafts than the New England Patriots. Bill the GM's best draft pick at the most consistent contributor in the last couple of drafts has been the punter. What does that say for his drafting prowess? Harry blows, Wynn is hurt a lot, Sony Michel had one good season and now sucks and is hurt all the time, Bentley is average at best, Winovich is really a jag, Duggar is average, The two tight ends are absolute waste of picks, probably more than half the offensive lineman he picked the last four or five years either retired, injured all the time or got cut.

The Patriots are in need of a total rebuild. This team is not going to be fixed next year. You're going to see their win total around 7 or 7.5 next season, And I think that number is inflated based on the coach's reputation.

 

[203Pat]

Teams looked for QBs but they wasted them because they cycled through coaches, didn't have any continuity, fire coordinators, made desperate decisions.

I just described the Bills and the Dolphins and also the Jets.

But look, if you don't jettison Ryan Tannehill because your coach Adam Gase is clueless, you may actually be able to build something--if you hired, say, Vrabel instead of Gase. This is why coaching is so important.

The Bills drafted Rob Johnson at QB, and EJ Manuel, Tyrod Taylor, Nathan Peterman, Trent Edwards, JP Losman, gave up a #1 for Bledsoe. That's 5 #1 picks for a whole bunch of nothing. A million and 1 coaches.

Meanwhile, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, Joe Flacco, and yes Cam Newton, Rex Grossman, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Chris Chandler are all starting QBs in the Super Bowl.

so, look, we're not going to find another Brady, and we're not going into the wilderness looking for a QB like the Bills and Dolphins did. We'll be like most of the successful teams who have gone to the Super Bowl with perfectly capable guys like the 12 guys I listed above.

I agree coaching and a good organization is a big part of the success of a QB but at the same time if a guy can't play he can't play. I mean look at the Bucs the same system and generally the same personnel and Winston was good enough to win them them 7 games while Brady showed up 5 minutes ago and is on the verge of 11 wins and a playoff run.

 

[upstater1]

I agree coaching and a good organization is a big part of the success of a QB but at the same time if a guy can't play he can't play. I mean look at the Bucs the same system and generally the same personnel and Winston was good enough to win them them 7 games while Brady showed up 5 minutes ago and is on the verge of 11 wins and a playoff run.

Yes, agreed. Of course, there are many QBs who can't play. But there are many teams throughout this league who are getting decent QB play without requiring an All-Pro like Brady.

I'm talking about the Tannehills and Derek Carrs. Heck, I think BB could win with Tedy Bridgewater.

 

[Doctor DDS]

I do not think the rebuild will necessarily be easy. Finding a good QB is a major challenge as we witnessed in the AFCE for the past 20 years. But if they are able to re-solve that dilemma they find themselves in a great position to use their cap space to fill a bunch of holes. The Dolphins 14 months ago appeared to be one of the worst teams of all time and are now positioned to be a playoff team after a major shopping spree this off-season so it is doable. Need young players to develop, the return of a couple players from Covid and some cheap replacements in FA.

Cap space and what the league impact is will have a big say on what the Pats do. Was looking at the Saints cap situation and have no idea how they will be able to handle it. They are $96M over the cap and have 13 players with a scheduled cap hit of $10M or more including Brees who is at $36M (including a $22M dead money hit if they release him) Most have big Dead money hits if they are released. Mahomes jumps up from $5M to $25M for the Chiefs and they will need to make some moves as they are $16M over. Restructuring can buy teams some time but eventually the bill comes do. Hope is that after the music stops there are a lot of quality vets sitting on the sideline and available for below market deals.

 

[1960Pats]

Why would you be banned for seeing what we are all seeing?

Great question. My guess is micro-moderating.

 

[1960Pats]

So your argument is spending a bunch of money on a few players creates less holes then spending it wisely across the entire roster?

I had to go back and re-read what I wrote to make sure that I wasn't arguing about anything. I wasn't.