Patriots Local News:

SOURCE:Boston Sports Journal


SOURCE:Boston Herald


SOURCE:USA TODAY


SOURCE:Patriots.com


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:Boston.com


SOURCE:ProFootballTalk.com


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:NESN


SOURCE:USA TODAY


SOURCE:ProFootballTalk.com


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:WEEI


SOURCE:Boston Sports Journal


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:Yahoo! Sports


SOURCE:NBC Sports Boston

Patsfans.com


Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: Rams
Sun
Feb 3rd
Right Now At PatsFans.com:
We're on to Atlanta!
Tom Brady and the Patriots pulled off an incredible overtime win at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, sending them to Atlanta to battle the Rams in the Super Bowl.


Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

Esoteric question for the stat guy

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Biffins, Jan 11, 2019.

  1. Coolade2

    Coolade2 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    126
    Ratings:
    +563
    Agree it's completely odd. But it sppeaks to the narrative of the decline of the dynasty and Brady unfortunately...
    And I am predicting they are wrong and the line should be higher..
     
    • Like Like x 1

  2. maust1013

    maust1013 In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2018
    Messages:
    3,214
    Likes Received:
    1,236
    Ratings:
    +6,919
    Very misleading. While it's true Vegas' opening number is a reflection of where they think the money will be they are absolutely telling you who they believe will win, hence the reason one team is the favorite. ;)
    Who they think will win is further reflected in the money line.
    This is very basic stuff kids
     
  3. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    5,280
    Likes Received:
    611
    Ratings:
    +3,184
    Just because the patriots have a lower spread than the rest of the favorites doesn’t neccessarily mean they have less money bet on them than the other teams
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  4. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    5,280
    Likes Received:
    611
    Ratings:
    +3,184
    I guess no one cares
     
  5. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2009
    Messages:
    7,753
    Likes Received:
    1,674
    Ratings:
    +6,856
    No it shouldn't. Statistically the Patriots are unimpressive until you realize that they were 4-0 against teams in the playoffs and 8-0 at home this year.
     
  6. Coolade2

    Coolade2 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    126
    Ratings:
    +563
    So you bet based on stats? Obvious issue is home field advantage , team on a bye vs . So.cal team playing 2nd road playoff game .. in January...
     
  7. maust1013

    maust1013 In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2018
    Messages:
    3,214
    Likes Received:
    1,236
    Ratings:
    +6,919
    What?? It speaks to no such thing, smdh. The other spreads have no bearing on this game. If anything as well as the Chargers have played on the road this year and with what low temps historically do to scoring the Pats opening at -4 1/2 to a 12-4 team that's already won a road playoff game is showing some healthy respect. The fact that the game quickly dropped a 1/2 and hasn't moved again this late in the week tells you the cash is coming in on both sides. Again, that is exactly what the books want- balanced money.

    BTW, the moneyline on New England is still @ -$200. Since sharp money seldom goes near anything worse than -$150 that's a further reflection of a healthy respect for New England
     
  8. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2009
    Messages:
    7,753
    Likes Received:
    1,674
    Ratings:
    +6,856
    I don't bet. The spread is based on a number of factors including points for/against, but the big driver is the Pats have a poorer record than the Chargers and lost to five non-playoff teams. The Patriots and the Chargers were both 9-7 against the spread and the two QBs were virtually the same during the regular season. 4 points is about right for a home game this year.

    There is no home field advantage in the eyes of the gamblers. They see the Chargers were undefeated on the road and just beat the Ravens in Baltimore. They're a better team on the road than at home.

    That's what the line setters see. They want 50-50 split and keep the vig. Whatever happens the house gets its money.

    (I see Pats 33 - Chargers 20).
     
  9. Coolade2

    Coolade2 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    126
    Ratings:
    +563
    So you and dumb bookies think reg season road record means chargers won't play slightly off that lofty standard this week??
    Further.. the line says the Patriots at 11-5 cannot dominate at home the way they have in the past at home. The line says they are a weaker team despite the 8-0 home record. Following?
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  10. Coolade2

    Coolade2 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    126
    Ratings:
    +563
    Right so you say spread is wrong also.. make up your mind.o_O
     
  11. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2005
    Messages:
    16,527
    Likes Received:
    2,009
    Ratings:
    +7,841
    Look objectively at the season win-loss records and it begins to make much more sense.

    12-4 at 11-5 (-4)
    10-6 at 12-4 (-5)
    10-6 at 13-3 (-7)
    9-7 at 13-3 (-8)
     
  12. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    44,489
    Likes Received:
    4,530
    Ratings:
    +26,037
    The bookies don’t “think” anything.
    The spread is not a prediction.
    The spread is designed to get 50% of the money on each side.
    If more money is coming in on the favorite the line increase. If more is coming on the underdog it goes down.
    The kind indicates whatcthe people betting on the game are cumulatively ( weighed by amount bet) predict is going to happen
     
  13. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    44,489
    Likes Received:
    4,530
    Ratings:
    +26,037
    The patriots spread is the lowest because the patriots are the hone team which is facing the best of the road teams.
     
  14. Coolade2

    Coolade2 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    126
    Ratings:
    +563
    Exactly.. so they start somewhere. And where they start, influences the betting.. problem is if late money dumps on the Patriots big time.. oops.. see your theories are limited
     
  15. fightingirish595

    fightingirish595 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Feb 6, 2012
    Messages:
    5,280
    Likes Received:
    611
    Ratings:
    +3,184
    It’s not limited
     
  16. Coolade2

    Coolade2 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2018
    Messages:
    693
    Likes Received:
    126
    Ratings:
    +563
    If you can follow my point .. boooookies can be wrong. If they in all their wisdom and public influence start their line wrong then it can only move a limited amount. Then smart money comes in late and can take advantage of that. Then the booookies lose money. :D
     
  17. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    44,489
    Likes Received:
    4,530
    Ratings:
    +26,037
    It’s not a theory.
    They don’t predict the game. They don’t care who wins they want money split 50/50.
    The start somewhere by guessing where the money will go not by predicting the winner and margin. It’s not that hard, they have a database of how bettors have treated the team.
    If they guess wrong the lines moves quickly.

    If you dont understand how it works, just say so, rather than making stuff up.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2019
  18. maust1013

    maust1013 In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2018
    Messages:
    3,214
    Likes Received:
    1,236
    Ratings:
    +6,919
    OFC bookies can be wrong but it doesn't happen often. After all, they didn't manage to build those palaces in Vegas by being dumb :rolleyes:

    I'd ask how you get "The line says they are a weaker team despite the 8-0 home record" from a spread that has them favored but the answer would just be as nonsensical as the statement itself. Lines can and have moved substantial amounts in relatively short order, nothing about them is written in stone. You plainly have little to no appreciation for just how good the books are at what they do. You are doubling down on the numb here son, after your nonsense and backtracking on the Jackson thread that comes as no surprise. What I actually said is the Chargers sported a heck of a road record and have already shown they can win a road playoff game and that spread is no disrespect to the Patriots, they are giving more than the customary home 3 against an exceptional 12-4 road team. So spare me the infantile strawman nonsense. I also made no statement as to how I think either team will play on Sunday. If you peruse the gambling thread it won't take you long to see I'm not bad at this and I am no novice, you on the other hand are clearly a neophyte. Everything about that game tells me to stay away from it, I just see the potential for it to play out too many different ways. For the record heart tells me the Pats will win and could even do it convincingly but I don't bet with my heart. Should that number drop below 3 on the other hand...
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  19. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 26, 2009
    Messages:
    7,753
    Likes Received:
    1,674
    Ratings:
    +6,856
    No. I don't say the spread is "wrong." It is what it is.

    The spread is not a prediction of the difference in the final score. The spread is what the oddsmakers in Las Vegas think will attract the most money on both sides. It started with a guy in Chicago who was mathematician who did not bet. He was a bookmaker trying to get the most money evenly on both sides and take the vig.

    They set lines or odds on all sorts of stuff. NBA, NFL, MLB, WNBA, NCAA, you name it. They can't possibly follow every golfer in a PGA event, but they have odds for each one winning any given tournament based on a mathematical formula. Fundamentally they don't care.

    Read this: Pointspreads Explained: How bookmakers set the betting line

    (But I still think the Patriots blow these guys out in Foxborough, in the cold, after two transcontinental flights in a week, with a coach who is 1-0 matching wits with Bill Belichick who has won more playoff games than any head coach in the history of the NFL.) Coaches, Records, and Coaching Totals | Pro-Football-Reference.com
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2019
  20. Triumph

    Triumph Pro Bowl Player

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2004
    Messages:
    15,315
    Likes Received:
    1,251
    Ratings:
    +7,146
    When the spread goes down its time to buy before you get no points.
     

Share This Page

Search For Links: - CLOSE
For searches with multiple players
add commas (Ex: "Brady, Gronkowski")