Esoteric question for the stat guy

[Biffins]

LA Chargers at Patriots (-4)
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-5)
Dallas at LA Rams (-7)
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-8)

I am not sure if the data is even available but anyone know when was the last time we had a home playoff game in the Divisional Round or Wild Card Weekend when we were the least favoured at home compared to all other 3 games playing that weekend. I am quite surprised that all of Chiefs, Rams, Saints are all considered stronger favourites at home than us.

 

[Triumph]

The other spreads are not really relevant.

In fact, Vegas has to lower the LA vs NE spread and make the Chargers an attractive bet because NE has been money at home this season and rarely lose in the playoffs.If the money was coming in heavy on NE the spread would increase and just the opposite if all the action was on LA.

 

[Brick27]

Not a whole lot of variance between the 4 games by the looks of it though. Doesn’t seem too surprising the Pats are least favored since the Chargers are probably considered the best team of all the road teams.

 

[203Pat]

Spreads are heavily influenced by where the money is coming in. Obviously who Vegas thinks is going to win factors in but the point spread fluctuates based on where the money is being placed.

 

[Observer]

The other spreads are not really relevant.

In fact, Vegas has to lower the LA vs NE spread and make the Chargers an attractive bet because NE has been money at home this season and rarely lose in the playoffs.If the money was coming in heavy on NE the spread would increase and just the opposite if all the action was on LA.

Wouldn’t increasing the spread actually make the Chargers a better bet? I don’t know much about sports betting but I thought Pats(-4) meant that Pats would have to win by more than 4 points for one to make money betting on the Pats so I would think Pats(-7) would make the chargers even more attractive.

 

[Triumph]

Wouldn’t increasing the spread actually make the Chargers a better bet? I don’t know much about sports betting but I thought Pats(-4) meant that Pats would have to win by more than 4 points for one to make money betting on the Pats so I would think Pats(-7) would make the chargers even more attractive.

By increasing the NE spread I meant giving more points.

If I like NE i want to give fewest points possible.

 

[Triumph]

Wouldn’t increasing the spread actually make the Chargers a better bet? I don’t know much about sports betting but I thought Pats(-4) meant that Pats would have to win by more than 4 points for one to make money betting on the Pats so I would think Pats(-7) would make the chargers even more attractive.

I could have done a better job wording it.

Vegas wants LA to be an attractive option, but not too attractive.

 

[Sicilian]

As others have said, the odds aren't necessarily most/least likely to win, but engineered to even out the betting as best as possible. There's a formula for the house to make the most money over time.

That said, we have the lowest record of the four home teams, and we're playing the wild card team with the best record of any of the road teams. While still favored, it seems a no-brainer to favor us less than the others this weekend.

 

[maust]

Wouldn’t increasing the spread actually make the Chargers a better bet? I don’t know much about sports betting but I thought Pats(-4) meant that Pats would have to win by more than 4 points for one to make money betting on the Pats so I would think Pats(-7) would make the chargers even more attractive.

Vegas Odds Making 101: The Man's ideal betting line is the one that draws equal money to BOTH sides of the bet. Books make their money off the juice/vig (typically 10%) they rake off of every bet not the bet itself. When the money comes in too heavy on one side the book is at risk of a loss by having to go good if that side covers. Ideally the book wants to be a middleman, not a player.

 

[Biffins]

As others have said, the odds aren't necessarily most/least likely to win, but engineered to even out the betting as best as possible. There's a formula for the house to make the most money over time.

That said, we have the lowest record of the four home teams, and we're playing the wild card team with the best record of any of the road teams. While still favored, it seems a no-brainer to favor us less than the others this weekend.

Well.......... maybe they are saying exactly that, that Pats are least favoured.

At least qualitatively, I've read a ton of article forecasting our doom.

e.g.

N.F.L. Playoff Predictions: Our Picks for the Divisional Round

NY Times predicts all other home teams will win and Pats will lose. Tons of other guys are making similar predictions.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

As others have said, the odds aren't necessarily most/least likely to win, but engineered to even out the betting as best as possible. There's a formula for the house to make the most money over time.

That said, we have the lowest record of the four home teams, and we're playing the wild card team with the best record of any of the road teams. While still favored, it seems a no-brainer to favor us less than the others this weekend.

And playing a WC team that I believe is 8-1 on the road so far (including postseason).

 

[Ring 6]

The other spreads are not really relevant.

In fact, Vegas has to lower the LA vs NE spread and make the Chargers an attractive bet because NE has been money at home this season and rarely lose in the playoffs.If the money was coming in heavy on NE the spread would increase and just the opposite if all the action was on LA.

The bolded is incorrect. Lowering the spread would make the underdog a less attractive bet.
Your last sentence is correct though.

 

[Ring 6]

Spreads are heavily influenced by where the money is coming in. Obviously who Vegas thinks is going to win factors in but the point spread fluctuates based on where the money is being placed.

Actually there is no impact of who Vegas thinks will win. The spread is solely based upon the bets they receive.
The initial spread isn’t set based upon who they think will win but who they think the bets will be on.

 

[Triumph]

The bolded is incorrect. Lowering the spread would make the underdog a less attractive bet.
Your last sentence is correct though.

You're wrong.

Vegas has to give the impression that LA is equal to NE. A lopsided spread would scare bettors off.

 

[fightingirish595]

2004. Pats were dogs in that game I believe. All the other teams were giving a lot of points. Even if the pats weren’t home dogs. No way they gave more than 3 in that game

 

[1960Pats]

Actually there is no impact of who Vegas thinks will win. The spread is solely based upon the bets they receive.
The initial spread isn’t set based upon who they think will win but who they think the bets will be on.

If only I had a nickle for every time this fact was repeated. It seems like many folks don't understand the concept.

 

[Ring 6]

You're wrong.

Vegas has to give the impression that LA is equal to NE. A lopsided spread would scare bettors off.

Wait. You think giving LA FEWER points will attract more bets on LA?
Really?

 

[fightingirish595]

Have to agree with Andy here. Giving LA more points would attract more betters. Well smart betters. If the spread was 7 this would be an easy decision for me. With the spread at 4 and with the chargers having that tragedy on their side, a little harder to decide

 

[Coolade2]

Money should be all over the Patriots...

Here's a question for stat guys.. what is record for low seeded teams playing second consecutive long distance road games in the division round..?

Then you add socal team in winter environment. If pats get a lead it's gonna snowball.. no pun intended since snow no longer in the forecast..

 

[Biffins]

Not sure what you guys are all saying. I am just pointing out that Pats are least favoured. You say the odds just reflect moneys being bet on Chargers. Well in that case the Pats have had the least money bet on from all 4 home teams. Does that sound better. There's no difference.

I am just saying I found it surprising that considering the poor historical playoff record of the other 3 teams, and the great record of the Pats, we're still the least favoured..... oh wait, I mean the least money bet on.