Esoteric question for the stat guy

[Coolade2]

Not sure what you guys are all saying. I am just pointing out that Pats are least favoured. You say the odds just reflect moneys being bet on Chargers. Well in that case the Pats have had the least money bet on from all 4 home teams. Does that sound better. There's no difference.

I am just saying I found it surprising that considering the poor historical playoff record of the other 3 teams, and the great record of the Pats, we're still the least favoured..... oh wait, I mean the least money bet on.

Agree it's completely odd. But it sppeaks to the narrative of the decline of the dynasty and Brady unfortunately...
And I am predicting they are wrong and the line should be higher..

 

[maust]

The initial spread isn’t set based upon who they think will win but who they think the bets will be on.

Very misleading. While it's true Vegas' opening number is a reflection of where they think the money will be they are absolutely telling you who they believe will win, hence the reason one team is the favorite.
Who they think will win is further reflected in the money line.
This is very basic stuff kids

 

[fightingirish595]

Not sure what you guys are all saying. I am just pointing out that Pats are least favoured. You say the odds just reflect moneys being bet on Chargers. Well in that case the Pats have had the least money bet on from all 4 home teams. Does that sound better. There's no difference.

I am just saying I found it surprising that considering the poor historical playoff record of the other 3 teams, and the great record of the Pats, we're still the least favoured..... oh wait, I mean the least money bet on.

Just because the patriots have a lower spread than the rest of the favorites doesn’t neccessarily mean they have less money bet on them than the other teams

 

[fightingirish595]

2004. Pats were dogs in that game I believe. All the other teams were giving a lot of points. Even if the pats weren’t home dogs. No way they gave more than 3 in that game

I guess no one cares

 

[goheels22002]

Money should be all over the Patriots...

Here's a question for stat guys.. what is record for low seeded teams playing second consecutive long distance road games in the division round..?

Then you add socal team in winter environment. If pats get a lead it's gonna snowball.. no pun intended since snow no longer in the forecast..

No it shouldn't. Statistically the Patriots are unimpressive until you realize that they were 4-0 against teams in the playoffs and 8-0 at home this year.

 

[Coolade2]

No it shouldn't. Statistically the Patriots are unimpressive until you realize that they were 4-0 against teams in the playoffs and 8-0 at home this year.

So you bet based on stats? Obvious issue is home field advantage , team on a bye vs . So.cal team playing 2nd road playoff game .. in January...

 

[maust]

Agree it's completely odd. But it speaks to the narrative of the decline of the dynasty and Brady unfortunately...

What?? It speaks to no such thing, smdh. The other spreads have no bearing on this game. If anything as well as the Chargers have played on the road this year and with what low temps historically do to scoring the Pats opening at -4 1/2 to a 12-4 team that's already won a road playoff game is showing some healthy respect. The fact that the game quickly dropped a 1/2 and hasn't moved again this late in the week tells you the cash is coming in on both sides. Again, that is exactly what the books want- balanced money.

BTW, the moneyline on New England is still @ -$200. Since sharp money seldom goes near anything worse than -$150 that's a further reflection of a healthy respect for New England

 

[goheels22002]

So you bet based on stats? Obvious issue is home field advantage , team on a bye vs . So.cal team playing 2nd road playoff game .. in January...

I don't bet. The spread is based on a number of factors including points for/against, but the big driver is the Pats have a poorer record than the Chargers and lost to five non-playoff teams. The Patriots and the Chargers were both 9-7 against the spread and the two QBs were virtually the same during the regular season. 4 points is about right for a home game this year.

There is no home field advantage in the eyes of the gamblers. They see the Chargers were undefeated on the road and just beat the Ravens in Baltimore. They're a better team on the road than at home.

That's what the line setters see. They want 50-50 split and keep the vig. Whatever happens the house gets its money.

(I see Pats 33 - Chargers 20).

 

[Coolade2]

What?? It speaks to no such thing, smdh. The other spreads have no bearing on this game. If anything as well as the Chargers have played on the road this year and with what low temps historically do to scoring the Pats opening at -4 1/2 to a 12-4 team that's already won a road playoff game is showing some healthy respect. The fact that the game quickly dropped a 1/2 and hasn't moved again this late in the week tells you the cash is coming in on both sides. Again, that is exactly what the books want- balanced money.

BTW, the moneyline on New England is still @ -$200. Since sharp money seldom goes near anything worse than -$150 that's a further reflection of a healthy respect for New England

So you and dumb bookies think reg season road record means chargers won't play slightly off that lofty standard this week??
Further.. the line says the Patriots at 11-5 cannot dominate at home the way they have in the past at home. The line says they are a weaker team despite the 8-0 home record. Following?

 

[Coolade2]

I don't bet. The spread is based on a number of factors including points for/against, but the big driver is the Pats have a poorer record than the Chargers and lost to five non-playoff teams. The Patriots and the Chargers were both 9-7 against the spread and the two QBs were virtually the same during the regular season. 4 points is about right for a home game this year.

There is no home field advantage in the eyes of the gamblers. They see the Chargers were undefeated on the road and just beat the Ravens in Baltimore. They're a better team on the road than at home.

That's what the line setters see. They want 50-50 split and keep the vig. Whatever happens the house gets its money.

(I see Pats 33 - Chargers 20).

Right so you say spread is wrong also.. make up your mind.

 

[jmt57]

LA Chargers at Patriots (-4)
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-5)
Dallas at LA Rams (-7)
Philadelphia at New Orleans (-8)

I am quite surprised that all of Chiefs, Rams, Saints are all considered stronger favourites at home than us.

Look objectively at the season win-loss records and it begins to make much more sense.

12-4 at 11-5 (-4)
10-6 at 12-4 (-5)
10-6 at 13-3 (-7)
9-7 at 13-3 (-8)

 

[Ring 6]

So you and dumb bookies think reg season road record means chargers won't play slightly off that lofty standard this week??
Further.. the line says the Patriots at 11-5 cannot dominate at home the way they have in the past at home. The line says they are a weaker team despite the 8-0 home record. Following?

The bookies don’t “think” anything.
The spread is not a prediction.
The spread is designed to get 50% of the money on each side.
If more money is coming in on the favorite the line increase. If more is coming on the underdog it goes down.
The kind indicates whatcthe people betting on the game are cumulatively ( weighed by amount bet) predict is going to happen

 

[Ring 6]

The patriots spread is the lowest because the patriots are the hone team which is facing the best of the road teams.

 

[Coolade2]

The bookies don’t “think” anything.
The spread is not a prediction.
The spread is designed to get 50% of the money on each side.
If more money is coming in on the favorite the line increase. If more is coming on the underdog it goes down.
The kind indicates whatcthe people betting on the game are cumulatively ( weighed by amount bet) predict is going to happen

Exactly.. so they start somewhere. And where they start, influences the betting.. problem is if late money dumps on the Patriots big time.. oops.. see your theories are limited

 

[fightingirish595]

Exactly.. so they start somewhere. And where they start, influences the betting.. problem is if late money dumps on the Patriots big time.. oops.. see your theories are limited

It’s not limited

 

[Coolade2]

It’s not limited

If you can follow my point .. boooookies can be wrong. If they in all their wisdom and public influence start their line wrong then it can only move a limited amount. Then smart money comes in late and can take advantage of that. Then the booookies lose money.

 

[Ring 6]

Exactly.. so they start somewhere. And where they start, influences the betting.. problem is if late money dumps on the Patriots big time.. oops.. see your theories are limited

It’s not a theory.
They don’t predict the game. They don’t care who wins they want money split 50/50.
The start somewhere by guessing where the money will go not by predicting the winner and margin. It’s not that hard, they have a database of how bettors have treated the team.
If they guess wrong the lines moves quickly.

If you dont understand how it works, just say so, rather than making stuff up.

 

[maust]

So you and dumb bookies think reg season road record means chargers won't play slightly off that lofty standard this week??
Further.. the line says the Patriots at 11-5 cannot dominate at home the way they have in the past at home. The line says they are a weaker team despite the 8-0 home record. Following?

If you can follow my point .. boooookies can be wrong. If they in all their wisdom and public influence start their line wrong then it can only move a limited amount. Then smart money comes in late and can take advantage of that. Then the booookies lose money.

OFC bookies can be wrong but it doesn't happen often. After all, they didn't manage to build those palaces in Vegas by being dumb

I'd ask how you get "The line says they are a weaker team despite the 8-0 home record" from a spread that has them favored but the answer would just be as nonsensical as the statement itself. Lines can and have moved substantial amounts in relatively short order, nothing about them is written in stone. You plainly have little to no appreciation for just how good the books are at what they do. You are doubling down on the numb here son, after your nonsense and backtracking on the Jackson thread that comes as no surprise. What I actually said is the Chargers sported a heck of a road record and have already shown they can win a road playoff game and that spread is no disrespect to the Patriots, they are giving more than the customary home 3 against an exceptional 12-4 road team. So spare me the infantile strawman nonsense. I also made no statement as to how I think either team will play on Sunday. If you peruse the gambling thread it won't take you long to see I'm not bad at this and I am no novice, you on the other hand are clearly a neophyte. Everything about that game tells me to stay away from it, I just see the potential for it to play out too many different ways. For the record heart tells me the Pats will win and could even do it convincingly but I don't bet with my heart. Should that number drop below 3 on the other hand...

 

[goheels22002]

Right so you say spread is wrong also.. make up your mind.

No. I don't say the spread is "wrong." It is what it is.

The spread is not a prediction of the difference in the final score. The spread is what the oddsmakers in Las Vegas think will attract the most money on both sides. It started with a guy in Chicago who was mathematician who did not bet. He was a bookmaker trying to get the most money evenly on both sides and take the vig.

They set lines or odds on all sorts of stuff. NBA, NFL, MLB, WNBA, NCAA, you name it. They can't possibly follow every golfer in a PGA event, but they have odds for each one winning any given tournament based on a mathematical formula. Fundamentally they don't care.

Read this: Pointspreads Explained: How bookmakers set the betting line

(But I still think the Patriots blow these guys out in Foxborough, in the cold, after two transcontinental flights in a week, with a coach who is 1-0 matching wits with Bill Belichick who has won more playoff games than any head coach in the history of the NFL.) Coaches, Records, and Coaching Totals | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[Triumph]

Wait. You think giving LA FEWER points will attract more bets on LA?
Really?

When the spread goes down its time to buy before you get no points.