Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amendola?

[Brady6]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Multiple posters have proclaimed they have you on ignore. I dont even read the board that much and I have seen it so it must be somewhat prevalent.



You have been in many battles on this site with several posters. Probably more battles than anyone here.



Do you deny either of these?

I know 2-3 posters who have me on ignore. I do not get into battles because I don't flip out over someone not agreeing with my feelings about a player, I can have a discussion without making it a war. So to answer your question I am very seldom in battles, I respond to posts when other posters quote me and I attempt to be as respectful as possible in doing so, it is only when someone does something I deem out of line or unnecessary that I may respond with something aggressive.

To me this is discussion intended to educate myself and hear the opinions of others, if I disagree I still see value in most and that is why I continue the discussion. I assure you I want nothing more than to see Amendola catch 150 balls and help lead this team to a SB title but realistically I have a hard time seeing it actually come to fruition so I explain why to people who have lofty expectations.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

He was productive as rookie with 43 catches in 12 games. He was targeted 54 combined times in 2010, 2011, and 2012 combined. I think it is hard to catch a football when it is not being thrown to you.

Stat line A: 11 games, 54 targets, 37 receptions, 359 yards, 1 TD
Stat line B: 12 games, 83 targets, 54 receptions, 644 yards, 2 TD

Stat line A is Edelman in 2009, which you just called a productive season. Stat line B is Amendola in 2013. If line A is a productive season, then Amendola just had a productive season, with promise of better to come. So why are we even having this conversation?

 

[Brady6]

Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has A...

Stat line A: 11 games, 54 targets, 37 receptions, 359 yards, 1 TD

Stat line B: 12 games, 83 targets, 54 receptions, 644 yards, 2 TD



Stat line A is Edelman in 2009, which you just called a productive season. Stat line B is Amendola in 2013, which has led you to create multiple threads about how much he sucks. Your bias is showing again.

It is not a bias, first I said that Edelman was productive as a rookie in 12 games (1 was a playoff game). I never said Amendola was not productive, because he was productive, he just wasn't as productive as a player who signed his contract should be.

It is like this, we all for the most part were huge fans of Chris Jones because he was a waiver pickup who was drafted by another team in the sixth round. If we had draft him the first round we would not have held him in such high regard and his deficiencies would have been more noticeable. Same rules apply to Amendola if he was here for $2-3M APY I would be praising him for his play, but to whom much is given much is expected.

My thing with Amendola is consistency and his lack of it exaggerates my disappointment in him. You watch a game like the Steelers and you think he has turned a corner then he comes back a week later and gives you next to nothing, a few more games pass and he has a game like he did in Miami and you think again is it going to happen, once again he follows that up with next to nothing and the roller-coaster just wears you down. Even in the playoffs he had a solid game against the Colts and came out the next week and laid an egg. It hits a point where you have to accept that he is not David Ortiz and he is a steak hitter like Ssaltalamacchia.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

This is going nowhere you want him to be a good signing so you make yourself believe he is, there is no point and arguing cause there is no value to be gained. Talk to you later buddy!

Seasons over, I don't live in the past. I do want you to face reality that he had a fairly serious injury for a slot receiver making a real evaluation impossible.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Seasons over, I don't live in the past. I do want you to face reality that he had a fairly serious injury for a slot receiver making a real evaluation impossible.

Fair enough and as I said in my OP considering our investment in him it is likely best for this team to move forward with him and let Edelman move on to a team where he is worth what he is expected to be valued at. He might be a $6M receiver but he is not one on a team that is already committed to Amendola at $5.7M APY.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Fair enough and as I said in my OP considering our investment in him it is likely best for this team to move forward with him and let Edelman move on to a team where he is worth what he is expected to be valued at. He might be a $6M receiver but he is not one on a team that is already committed to Amendola at $5.7M APY.

That seems to be the business case, but i never look at it that way. The Patriots usually sign the players they want, so unless some team goes way out on Edelman (I doubt it) they might make it work. I severely doubt he gets a real 6-8 million with a lot of guaranteed money, but it might not take that much for the position to become overpriced.

Ironically, whoever signs Edelman will be signing someone who has been oft injured, what the Patriots are being criticized for.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

It is not a bias, first I said that Edelman was productive as a rookie in 12 games (1 was a playoff game). I never said Amendola was not productive, because he was productive, he just wasn't as productive as a player who signed his contract should be.

This is why I'm glad that you're clarifying your position, because "Amendola was productive this year, but he didn't live up to his contract like Edelman did" is a different argument than has been made in the past, for the most part, and it's a stance that makes it awfully difficult to justify paying Edelman. Basically, you just answered the question that you asked in starting this thread: no, Edelman shouldn't be paid $6-8M per year, since his worth is primarily derived from the fact that he makes a lot less than that.

It is like this, we all for the most part were huge fans of Chris Jones because he was a waiver pickup who was drafted by another team in the sixth round. If we had draft him the first round we would not have held him in such high regard and his deficiencies would have been more noticeable. Same rules apply to Amendola if he was here for $2-3M APY I would be praising him for his play, but to whom much is given much is expected.

Yes, and when Chris Jones becomes eligible for FA, the fact that he performed pretty well for an UDFA won't mean that he should make upper-tier starter money. I think pretty much everyone here agrees that Amendola is currently overpaid for his production. But the point is that Edelman would be too, if he made the $6-8M figure that's being thrown around here.

Also, in other posts here I saw the argument that the issue with Amendola is that his production is inconsistent, but that's the nature of pretty much any player. Edelman had almost half of his yards (44%) in four games this season, and in the other 12 he averaged 49 yards per game. That's not a knock against him, it's just how it works.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Stat line A: 11 games, 54 targets, 37 receptions, 359 yards, 1 TD
Stat line B: 12 games, 83 targets, 54 receptions, 644 yards, 2 TD

Stat line A is Edelman in 2009, which you just called a productive season. Stat line B is Amendola in 2013. If line A is a productive season, then Amendola just had a productive season, with promise of better to come. So why are we even having this conversation?

Amendola's obvious problem was missing those 4 games. Had he not, he'd have projected those 4.5 catches per game on average to a 72 catch season, in only his first season here. While that's not "great," having 70+ catches isn't anything to feel remotely ashamed of either.

Even then, he still had a much higher percentage of 1st downs vs Edelman this year with 37 first downs on his 83 targets vs Edelman's 54 first downs on 151 targets.

On top of that Amendola also still had a higher YPC average with 11.7 vs Edelman's 10.1.

If Amendola can either up his reception average another catch per game OR end up playing in more than 12 games, we should see significant improvement in year two. If he actually ends up with anything close to Edelman (or Welker's) target totals of the past, he should have no problem producing 80-90+ receptions with his 65% reception percentage. It's all about the targets, and the only way to guarantee those is to stay healthy.

Unfortunately, we don't have any idea whether either one of Amendola or Edelman can stay healthy. Personally, I hope for about 75% (12 games) from the two of them. Anything else is a bonus in my opinion.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Amendola's obvious problem was missing those 4 games. Had he not, he'd have projected those 4.5 catches per game on average to a 72 catch season, in only his first season here. While that's not "great," having 70+ catches isn't anything to feel remotely ashamed of either.

Even then, he still had a much higher percentage of 1st downs vs Edelman this year with 37 first downs on his 83 targets vs Edelman's 54 first downs on 151 targets.

On top of that Amendola also still had a higher YPC average with 11.7 vs Edelman's 10.1.

If Amendola can either up his reception average another catch per game OR end up playing in more than 12 games, we should see significant improvement in year two. If he actually ends up with anything close to Edelman (or Welker's) target totals of the past, he should have no problem producing 80-90+ receptions with his 65% reception percentage. It's all about the targets, and the only way to guarantee those is to stay healthy.

Unfortunately, we don't have any idea whether either one of Amendola or Edelman can stay healthy. Personally, I hope for about 75% (12 games) from the two of them. Anything else is a bonus in my opinion.

Agreed, and I think Amendola's biggest 'mistake', if you can call it that, was gutting out the torn groin in the first place. Torn groins heal, but they need time to do it. He played exactly one healthy game this year, and had 10 catches and 100+ yards. If he had played a few healthy games, then torn his groin, then gone on IR, the sentiment would be "man, he's really good when healthy but can't stay healthy" (which is pretty much true). Instead, he missed some games, came back as soon as he could, and had production that was far below the level that he's established as being capable of when healthy.

Basically, we'll either be conclusively shown what he's capable of in 2014 or he'll just get hurt again. Hard to know which will happen at this point, but I feel pretty confident stating that we'll get more than one healthy game out of him this time. Hell, as Edelman proved in 2013, even injury-prone guys typically have a fully, healthy season at some point.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Edelman had almost half of his yards (44%) in four games this season, and in the other 12 he averaged 49 yards per game. That's not a knock against him, it's just how it works.

It would seem that a good portion of posters here would be more than happy to pay Julian Edelman around 4m or so AAV on a new deal. That would be great (unless it somehow came down to choosing him vs say---Anquan Boldin or some other kind of pipe dream).

The questions of course, are whether or not Belichick will see something of the same value and/or whether Edelman would be willing to accept something like that here, which would likely mean leaving a bit of money on the table to go somewhere else.

Good point about the "sporadic" production being true for just about everyone.

 

[Arrington Planet]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

My obsession is not with Amendola

Sure thing, buddy.

Edit: if you don't see the full image open it in another tab, anyways, it's the count of posts Brady6 has written with the word Amendola in it and the full count is 998. Plus all the other messages that don't mention him directly but are about him, you do the math.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I'll say again, I don't think you can evaluate Amendola on a season he was injured after his third catch. You can't really evaluate Edelman on a season in which Both TEs, both rookie receivers and Amendola were injured enough that Edelman got tons of opportunities. He made the most of them, but he'd need a few more seasons to be judged IMO.

Welker proved it over a period of time. Unfortunately for him, his contract came up as he got older and his agent had him convinced he was going to get paid like Larry Fitzgerald (exaggeration).

The fact is, contracts often depend on the situation and the year your contracts up and it's ridiculous to go through the league and expect them to be rational. Some players are bargains, some are way overpaid and often those same players go from one extreme to the other in different contract years.

Teams need to fill rosters and get the most value overall even though some are going to seem unbalanced.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I feel pretty confident stating that we'll get more than one healthy game out of him this time. Hell, as Edelman proved in 2013, even injury-prone guys typically have a fully, healthy season at some point.

Fitzy says we can get 250 catches out of him, so that's good enough for me

**** Pats Fans Say: 2013 - YouTube

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I'll say again, I don't think you can evaluate Amendola on a season he was injured after his third catch. You can't really evaluate Edelman on a season in which Both TEs, both rookie receivers and Amendola were injured enough that Edelman got tons of opportunities. He made the most of them, but he'd need a few more seasons to be judged IMO.

Welker proved it over a period of time. Unfortunately for him, his contract came up as he got older and his agent had him convinced he was going to get paid like Larry Fitzgerald (exaggeration).

The fact is, contracts often depend on the situation and the year your contracts up and it's ridiculous to go through the league and expect them to be rational. Some players are bargains, some are way overpaid and often those same players go from one extreme to the other in different contract years.

Teams need to fill rosters and get the most value overall even though some are going to seem unbalanced.

Remember, though, that Welker had even more targets in 2012 than Edelman did in 2013, and that's with all the other targets.

So it still boils down to whether or not the Patriots could see themselves using Edelman in 2014 the way they did Welker in 2012, and how much they think he's worth.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Remember, though, that Welker had even more targets in 2012 than Edelman did in 2013, and that's with all the other targets.

So it still boils down to whether or not the Patriots could see themselves using Edelman in 2014 the way they did Welker in 2012, and how much they think he's worth.

You're right--we'll have to see how Belichick feels moving forward. He's the shotcaller, and one of the only people who have much of a hint as to what will happen.

I just can't help but feel that Edelman wouldn't be seeing as many targets next year (and moving ahead), if we're reasonably expecting Gronkowski to return to health; along with the development of the rookies, more of a focus on the running game again, and the ability to solve some of our issues that were apparent in 2012 and 2013.

I'm not claiming that I think the short field game won't continue to be our bread and butter though, so it's definitely hard to try and project with much confidence.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I don't expect more of a focus on the running game than in 2013. IMHO, we need Blount back to continue what we had.

We do expect more from Vereen, but that is primarily in the passing game.

more of a focus on the running game again

 

[condon84]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Everything fell right for JE this year. He never had 350 yards in a season before this one.

He stayed healthy.
He was the only returning WR/TE Brady really knew until Gronk came back.
Vereen went down early.
Gronk didn't last.
Amendola got wrecked in week 1...his route-running suffered+ he was new to the system.
The rookies became a revolving door with injuries.

Even if everything fell right for JE, if he was not the player he is he would not have been as productive.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

This is why I'm glad that you're clarifying your position, because "Amendola was productive this year, but he didn't live up to his contract like Edelman did" is a different argument than has been made in the past, for the most part, and it's a stance that makes it awfully difficult to justify paying Edelman. Basically, you just answered the question that you asked in starting this thread: no, Edelman shouldn't be paid $6-8M per year, since his worth is primarily derived from the fact that he makes a lot less than that.

I do not think he should be paid $6M by this team because it would be difficult for him to provide $6M in value to a team that also has Amendola on it. If Amendola was here or we were a different team looking for a capable slot receiver that could give us 100+ catches I would say pay Edelman $6M. I would rather pay $6M APY for a player I know can put up 100+ catches and 1000+ yards than pay $5.7 APY for a player that I hope can do it.

Yes, and when Chris Jones becomes eligible for FA, the fact that he performed pretty well for an UDFA won't mean that he should make upper-tier starter money. I think pretty much everyone here agrees that Amendola is currently overpaid for his production. But the point is that Edelman would be too, if he made the $6-8M figure that's being thrown around here.

My point is if the investment is low the perception of the return is going to be different, you are a finance person. If you buy something as an investment for $5 and it returns $2 you would likely be very happy, if you buy something for $500 and it returns $2 you would not be nearly as happy with that return.

I have to assess Amendola based on what I would expect from a player with a $5.7M APY and when I do that, he is a disappointment. Does that make him unproductive? No, but is he underproductive in the context of his APY? Yes!

Also, in other posts here I saw the argument that the issue with Amendola is that his production is inconsistent, but that's the nature of pretty much any player. Edelman had almost half of his yards (44%) in four games this season, and in the other 12 he averaged 49 yards per game. That's not a knock against him, it's just how it works.

In week 12, against Denver, Edelman became the #1 Y-WR and Amendola was moved to the #3 WR, after that Edelman was very consistent –

• 12 – 9 receptions, 110 yards, 2 touchdowns
• 13 – 9 receptions, 101 yards
• 14 – 6 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown
• 15 – 13 receptions, 139 yards, 1 touchdown
• 16 – 7 receptions, 77 yards
• 17 – 9 receptions, 65 yards
• 19 – 6 receptions, 84 yards
• 20 – 10 receptions, 89 yards, 1 touchdown

In the games that Amendola missed due to injury, he was also consistent –

• 2 – 13 receptions, 78 yards
• 3 – 7 receptions, 44 yards
• 4 – 7 receptions, 118 yards
• 6 – 5 receptions, 44 yards

So I disagree with it being the nature of the players, sure every player has really good weeks and then not so great weeks but Amendola has night and day performances. He had less than 20 receiving yards in 5 of the 14 games he played, and 3 receptions or less in 7 of the 14 games he played this season. Edelman had less than 5 receptions in 4 games, and those 4 games were the Bengals, Dolphins, Steelers, and Panthers games. As I stated before if you watch the games were the ones when the team was attempting to integrate Amendola back into the offense as the primary Y-WR, which is why Edelman was targeted a total of 17 times during that period.

 

[SalemPats]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I'll say again, I don't think you can evaluate Amendola on a season he was injured after his third catch. You can't really evaluate Edelman on a season in which Both TEs, both rookie receivers and Amendola were injured enough that Edelman got tons of opportunities. He made the most of them, but he'd need a few more seasons to be judged IMO.

Welker proved it over a period of time. Unfortunately for him, his contract came up as he got older and his agent had him convinced he was going to get paid like Larry Fitzgerald (exaggeration).

The fact is, contracts often depend on the situation and the year your contracts up and it's ridiculous to go through the league and expect them to be rational. Some players are bargains, some are way overpaid and often those same players go from one extreme to the other in different contract years.

Teams need to fill rosters and get the most value overall even though some are going to seem unbalanced.

you do realize that DA has missed 24 of his last 48 regular season games and he's a consistent 50-60/500-600 guy. Also did you watch the AFCG where he had 0 catches

 

[Brady6]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Sure thing, buddy.

Edit: if you don't see the full image open it in another tab, anyways, it's the count of posts Brady6 has written with the word Amendola in it and the full count is 998. Plus all the other messages that don't mention him directly but are about him, you do the math.

So what you are telling me is that I have said Danny Amendola’s name 998 times in a thread since last year? Well let’s see, he was part of the 2013 UFA discussions, training camp, preseason, the regular season, most game day threads, the Wes Welker threads, the salary cap in 2014, and Julian Edelman’s resigning and value on the UFA market. So yeah, it is likely I mentioned his name that many times, but how many were in a game day thread about a play or something like that?