Even with Manuel starting, considering all of their injuries on defense, I give the Bills a less than 25% chance of winning.
Their game plan will center around Spiller and Jackson rushing the ball, which the Patriots should have the defense capability to contain. How they defend the Bills' somewhat explosive passing attack will go a long way to determine how this game pans out.
On defense the Bills will have huge issues stopping the Patriots especially if Byrd doesn't go, and we already know they'll be without, to me, their best defensive player in Gilmore.
All things considered, the Patriots should be able to win this with minimal to moderate difficulty. 31-17