Dwayne Allen to the moon?

[Wheelman]

2017 Tight End Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

The link above has Allen as the 17th highest paid TE in football.

Now I know it's not going to be a perfect world in which each year the highest paid players will be at the top of the stat leaderboards, but they will be partially judged on it (whether fair or not). After all, in football the salary cap is obviously a huge factor. That's why value is such a key component, and obviously production and salary are the main factors of value. So when you spend money on a guy you expect production.

Obviously whether or not he is living up to expectations is a discussion all in itself, but salary is certainly a factor in the conversation.

Danny Amendola is a perfect example. We all love Amendola for his production in big games and being a great depth player, but our perspective of him wouldn't be as rosy if he was still getting being paid more than guys like Edelman. (Even though he's resourceful, if he was making more than Edelman then he'd still be underperforming his contract and I bet BB would have cut him due to him being bad value, even if he is a good player).

I didn't realize Allen was only getting paid 5 million this season, and is only getting paid 5 million next season.

For some reason I thought Allen was getting paid like 6.5 this season, and it was going to up to 7 and 8 the next two seasons. With the price we're paying him, if Allen becomes a serviceable receiver, 5 million is a very good deal for the Pats.

And then you look at Eric Ebron's contract who a few people on here were clamoring for. His contract goes up to 8.25 million next season. But they were fine with that and cutting Allen?!?!?!?

 

[luuked]

As one of his critics I can say that this statement is 100% on the mark, but I don't necessarily see that as being out of line. After all, if the Pats are shelling out the money, that means that there are higher expectations out there. After all, if they were paying Allen to play like Hooman they would have a found cheaper guy who can play like him.

So yes, I won't deny that there is certainly a correlation between salary and expectations of play.

Except the salary is meaningless relative to the draft pick that was given up. They didnt sign him to that amount of money but traded for someone on an existing contract that they can dump the season after if things dont work out. I dont understand why people get hung up on his salary. This is an offseason issue and has no bearing on what his role is during the season.

Danny Amendola is a perfect example. We all love Amendola for his production in big games and being a great depth player, but our perspective of him wouldn't be as rosy if he was still getting being paid more than guys like Edelman. (Even though he's resourceful, if he was making more than Edelman then he'd still be underperforming his contract and I bet BB would have cut him due to him being bad value, even if he is a good player).

Please stop talking as if you represent a bigger group because what you are writing is just not true. I dont think anyone except people that just love to criticize things would think Dola would be not as appreciated if he had a bigger contract. You are conflating things that are purely offseason things with in-season decisions.

I repeat.. someones contract should have next to zero bearing on his role on the team. You dont play someone more or less often because of money. If he ends up making too much money relative to the role, then the time to deal with this is the offseason (or potentially a trade before the deadline).

 

[NE-VT]

First off, thank you for nice posts. I think you are wrong in some aspects, but you argued your point in constructive way that lends itself to discussion. I do think considering player's projected value-added vs. cost like you suggest can be helpful.

Now I know it's not going to be a perfect world in which each year the highest paid players will be at the top of the stat leaderboards, but they will be partially judged on it (whether fair or not). After all, in football the salary cap is obviously a huge factor. That's why value is such a key component, and obviously production and salary are the main factors of value. So when you spend money on a guy you expect production.

1. Dwayne Allen's current salary is a sunk cost. For this year, we achieve almost zero saving ($437,500 out of $4,937,500) by cutting him now. We are not going to find a better TE option for 437 K. I am fine to be talking about this now, but the real Allen decision is what to do for next season. At that point will will have more information about Allen's improvement in our scheme, next best options, etc.

2. Part of Allen's "production" is in the running game. Many of us on this board have argued that Allen has been doing quite well in run blocking, except for a handful of miscues. Attempting to evaluate how he ranks as a blocker relative to the other TEs on that list would be quite a project. I believe that our team has scouts doing that type of work, but I am not sure any of the patsfans posters have a super good sense of it (including me of course).

 

[long distance]

2017 Tight End Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

The link above has Allen as the 17th highest paid TE in football.

Now I know it's not going to be a perfect world in which each year the highest paid players will be at the top of the stat leaderboards, but they will be partially judged on it (whether fair or not). After all, in football the salary cap is obviously a huge factor. That's why value is such a key component, and obviously production and salary are the main factors of value. So when you spend money on a guy you expect production.

Obviously whether or not he is living up to expectations is a discussion all in itself, but salary is certainly a factor in the conversation.

Danny Amendola is a perfect example. We all love Amendola for his production in big games and being a great depth player, but our perspective of him wouldn't be as rosy if he was still getting being paid more than guys like Edelman. (Even though he's resourceful, if he was making more than Edelman then he'd still be underperforming his contract and I bet BB would have cut him due to him being bad value, even if he is a good player).

Agreed about salary cap implications and fans expectations although ironically some of the highest expectations come from fans that don't really care for c(r)ap.

I think @mainman offered a good reasoning re. his contract with the addition that Pats of course knew what he costs this year and as @luuked mentioned exchanging low 4th pick for mid 6th (IIRC) is somewhat significant as well (although relatively speaking bc while BB likes to collect and trade picks - he also seems to treat them as “fools gold“ )

Re BB expectations its really hard to say. They basically paid 5M upfront so they were “stuck“ with that no matter how it played out so expectation must have been quite strong.

What is worth remembering is that there were multiple sources during offseason saying that BB was really unhappy with the way they ran the football in 2016 (despite Blount's 18 TDs) esp. in the postseason. While they did put decent numbers in regular season they were too predictable and not explosive enough and that affected the offence on the whole (not to mention LGB couldn't pass protect or block) . the numbers in postseason went down from above 4 ypa down to 3ypa which Id guess to BB was not acceptable.

He invested substantial resources into new, more versatile, explosive, unpredictable RB committee that can open up play action and receiving extravaganza while also helping protect Brady better. I see Allen's signing in this line - he is a significant part of improved rushing (over 4 ypa and this time w 4 different guys) and some part of passing extravaganza showing signs of becoming legitimate receiving threat. And lets face it - as long as Gronk is healthy that's really all that's needed of him..

 

[Vindicate]

We have a pretty hilariously weaponized TE core in Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett and Dwayne Allen. If Allen can turn into an endzone target (fingers crossed he's coming to form) and Bennett is healthy by the play-offs, folks, that's an offense with too many packages to account for. 3 powerful TE's who can block really well for 3 RBs who can either run or catch passes and receivers like Cooks and Hogan with Amendola (and hopefully Mitchell).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agreed about salary cap implications and fans expectations although ironically some of the highest expectations come from fans that don't really care for c(r)ap.

I think @mainman offered a good reasoning re. his contract with the addition that Pats of course knew what he costs this year and as @luuked mentioned exchanging low 4th pick for mid 6th (IIRC) is somewhat significant as well (although relatively speaking bc while BB likes to collect and trade picks - he also seems to treat them as “fools gold“ )

Re BB expectations its really hard to say. They basically paid 5M upfront so they were “stuck“ with that no matter how it played out so expectation must have been quite strong.

What is worth remembering is that there were multiple sources during offseason saying that BB was really unhappy with the way they ran the football in 2016 (despite Blount's 18 TDs) esp. in the postseason. While they did put decent numbers in regular season they were too predictable and not explosive enough and that affected the offence on the whole (not to mention LGB couldn't pass protect or block) . the numbers in postseason went down from above 4 ypa down to 3ypa which Id guess to BB was not acceptable.

He invested substantial resources into new, more versatile, explosive, unpredictable RB committee that can open up play action and receiving extravaganza while also helping protect Brady better. I see Allen's signing in this line - he is a significant part of improved rushing (over 4 ypa and this time w 4 different guys) and some part of passing extravaganza showing signs of becoming legitimate receiving threat. And lets face it - as long as Gronk is healthy that's really all that's needed of him..

I think your numbers are wrong. Gillislee and Burkhead are ave < 4ypc

As it pertains to the running game, if we want to take a moment and be critical of BB, his personnel changes have not yielded the desired outcome.

2016 YPC: 3.9- 25th
2017 YPC: 3.9- 23rd

2016: Rushing TDs: 19- 7th
2017 Rushing TDs: 7- 18th

 

[brdmaverick]

1. Dwayne Allen's current salary is a sunk cost. For this year, we achieve almost zero saving ($437,500 out of $4,937,500) by cutting him now.

Just because I think he has underperformed this year and have been critical doesn't mean I feel he should be cut (I understand some may have, but not me). Even though I think he has underperformed I still have to believe he's better than any free agents still out there. Plus the time to learn the playbook and try to develop any chemistry? Sure, I agree it makes zero sense.

And yes, I think he has underpeformed, obviously that's open to interpretation, as you make a compelling case in your second point below. When I have been venting I should clarify that I'm not rooting for him to get cut, I'm rooting for him to get better. He's been playing better recently so it's all good.

2. Part of Allen's "production" is in the running game. Many of us on this board have argued that Allen has been doing quite well in run blocking, except for a handful of miscues. Attempting to evaluate how he ranks as a blocker relative to the other TEs on that list would be quite a project. I believe that our team has scouts doing that type of work, but I am not sure any of the patsfans posters have a super good sense of it (including me of course).

 

[brdmaverick]

Please stop talking as if you represent a bigger group because what you are writing is just not true. I dont think anyone except people that just love to criticize things would think Dola would be not as appreciated if he had a bigger contract.

How do you know that's not true?

Very ironic for you to criticize my "representing a bigger group" by you yourself "trying to represent a bigger group."

...and you think my statement comes from ill will. It does not. I love Danny Amendola.

He is a great performer for the role he is in. He represents great value. I'm just realistic enough to admit he probably wouldn't be as widely adored if he was taking up more salary cap space than he was worth. HE even must have realized it, and that's why he was taking the pay cut. Do you think people take pay cuts because they want less money? OF COURSE NOT! He knew he'd be gone if he was in his role at that salary.

 

[brdmaverick]

This is an offseason issue and has no bearing on what his role is during the season.

If he ends up making too much money relative to the role, then the time to deal with this is the offseason (or potentially a trade before the deadline).

We actually agree 100% on these statements.

I fully agree that it's an offseason issue, but does that mean we can't talk about it today? Of course not. This is a forum about the team. I think analyzing a guy's performance and whether or not a certain signing was a good signing or not is COMPLETELY fair game during the season (even if you know nothing will happen until the offseason).

Now obviously we may differ on the success of the signing, but the discussion itself is certainly justified.


I mean think about it.........on Texans forums last year people had every reason to complain about Osweiller. Yes, ultimately it was an offseason issue for them to deal with, but that doesn't absolve the signing from getting any scrutiny during the season.

 

[brdmaverick]

And lets face it - as long as Gronk is healthy that's really all that's needed of him..

I agree that as long as Gronk is healthy they don't need much from Allen. Along with BB's history of receiving tight ends on the roster, Gronk's health is another reason why I have to believe that Allen was thought to be a much bigger presence in the passing game.

We say "As long as Gronk is healthy" but I don't think that's something BB counts on. After all, he's only managed to finish the postseason healthy three times in his seven seasons. I'd like to think that BB has to be thinking of a backup plan.

Now with Bennett back in the fold my expectations of Allen are even less though, so I'm glad that he will neither make or break our season. Seriuosly, though, I am rooting for the guy. His involvement in the passing game the last few weeks is encouraging. Hopefully we'll have a healthy 3 headed TE situation going into the playoffs.

 

[long distance]

I think your numbers are wrong. Gillislee and Burkhead are ave < 4ypc

As it pertains to the running game, if we want to take a moment and be critical of BB, his personnel changes have not yielded the desired outcome.

2016 YPC: 3.9- 25th
2017 YPC: 3.9- 23rd

2016: Rushing TDs: 19- 7th
2017 Rushing TDs: 7- 18th

True. I was comparing 2016 REG season (app 4 ypa) to POST season (app 3 ypa) - as a point of reported BBs dissatisfaction - and significant investment in new 2017 group. We'll have to see what it means for 2017 POST - and that's what ultimately matters.

I have no issues w your numbers . but in evaluating and comparing the two running games (2016 REG vs 2017 REG) these numbers only tell part of the story. We should add RB receiving yds, play-action numbers (att, yds, ypa), RB pass protection, blocking etc.

You are absolutely right to lay down the pure run numbers since that is the basis. Personally I feel much better with this year's RB game and the way it influences the offence as a whole. D.Allen is part of it.

 

[long distance]

I agree that as long as Gronk is healthy they don't need much from Allen. Along with BB's history of receiving tight ends on the roster, Gronk's health is another reason why I have to believe that Allen was thought to be a much bigger presence in the passing game.

We say "As long as Gronk is healthy" but I don't think that's something BB counts on. After all, he's only managed to finish the postseason healthy three times in his seven seasons. I'd like to think that BB has to be thinking of a backup plan.

Now with Bennett back in the fold my expectations of Allen are even less though, so I'm glad that he will neither make or break or season. Seriuosly, though, I am rooting for the guy. He's involvement in teh passing game the last few weeks is encouraging. Hopefully we'll have a healthy 3 headed TE situation going into the playoffs.

Personally I don't think it is reasonable to believe Bennett will play healthy or close to it this season. Id guess he'll play through whatever he has as long as he can.

I completely agree that BB never counts on “as long as XY is healthy“ in any stage of the year. But we also don't really know how Allen would do in passing game without Gronk (and hopefully we don't have to) . like we didn't know how Bademosi would step up for Gilmore, Waddle for Cannon, KVN for Hightower, Karras for Andrews (although some had some “hunches“) etc.

He is paid. He is doing his job well. Played in all 10 games. etc.

As for the expectations: let's wait how it plays out..

 

[TomPatriot]

P
As for the expectations: let's wait how it plays out..

He seems to be taking a few of those short "Edelman" routes: drags, digs and outs. And he seems to be open.

 

[captain stone]

At least it didn't go with Kiffin...

…or Mike Hunt.

 

[maineman209]

So when you spend money on a guy you expect production.

I haven't spent a dime on Allen, have you? Maybe that's why I'm not concerned about his salary at this point.

A far as my expectations go wrt his receiving production, regardless what kind of numbers he put up elsewhere, he's still a new guy in the Pats offense. He has six games left in the regular season, and however many playoff games, in which to improve his receiving production. Meanwhile, he's been contributing very well a a blocker. I have no idea how the Pats feel about all that, but I'm okay with it.

Now, at the start of NEXT season, when I'm looking at Pats UFAs and outside UFAs and roster needs in the context of available cap space, THEN I'll take his 2017 production into account relative to what his contract calls for him to be paid in 2018.

 

[mgteich]

shoulda woulda coulda.

I am interested in the present and the in the future. Sure, we made a bad deal. That's in the past. Or perhaps we should cut him now because we made a bad deal? of course NOT Or perhaps we should cut him after the season, and sign someone else whether they are a better deal than Allan at $5M or not? Of course NOT.

Allan is here now and is worth having on the roster, considering the alternatives.

Allan may or may not be worth $5M for 2018, considering the alternatives.

Except the salary is meaningless relative to the draft pick that was given up. They didnt sign him to that amount of money but traded for someone on an existing contract that they can dump the season after if things dont work out. I dont understand why people get hung up on his salary. This is an offseason issue and has no bearing on what his role is during the season.



Please stop talking as if you represent a bigger group because what you are writing is just not true. I dont think anyone except people that just love to criticize things would think Dola would be not as appreciated if he had a bigger contract. You are conflating things that are purely offseason things with in-season decisions.

I repeat.. someones contract should have next to zero bearing on his role on the team. You dont play someone more or less often because of money. If he ends up making too much money relative to the role, then the time to deal with this is the offseason (or potentially a trade before the deadline).

 

[Angelpats]

I repeat.. someones contract should have next to zero bearing on his role on the team. You dont play someone more or less often because of money. If he ends up making too much money relative to the role, then the time to deal with this is the offseason (or potentially a trade before the deadline).

Why franchise or sign players to big long term contracts if you don't expect them to play? The discord here is in accessing value. You can't force others to see things your way. Everyone works and gets paid. You work well you get a raise or promotion. You cant fault anyone for that line of thinking. It's good to see Allen catching some balls I knew he would eventually.

 

[brdmaverick]

Allen is here now and is worth having on the roster, considering the alternatives.

Allen may or may not be worth $5M for 2018, considering the alternatives.

I think these two statements you make sum it up quite nicely........though I did have to change a few typos. I don't want luuked to discredit your statement for that reason alone.

 

[brdmaverick]

I haven't spent a dime on Allen, have you? Maybe that's why I'm not concerned about his salary at this point.

I respect your other argument about liking Allen for his blocking skills, but not caring about his salary because you yourself aren't writing his checks is a far reach.

The bottom line is that if a guy's worth is below his salary, then that salary could have been utilized elsewhere on the team to acquire better talent. You're argument would have more legs if we were talking about the Red Sox, but even then others could argue that in a way you are paying for it in ticket prices, team merchandise, etc.

I really don't intend to come off as being harsh. It's just that as fans we care about our team so we want our team to make good decisions (to increase our chances of victory).

The reality is that NOTHING about the Patriots should affect me in anyway at all. It shouldn't matter if they suck or win the Super Bowl, but the reality is that it does. I'm more invested in the team than I should be, but I'm ok with that. I'm guessing most fans on this board are in the same boat and that's why we spend hours examining Dwayne Allen as opposed to just watching 3 hours of football on Sunday.

 

[luuked]

Why franchise or sign players to big long term contracts if you don't expect them to play? The discord here is in accessing value. You can't force others to see things your way. Everyone works and gets paid. You work well you get a raise or promotion. You cant fault anyone for that line of thinking. It's good to see Allen catching some balls I knew he would eventually.

Oh boy are you really that stupid ? What is so difficult to understand about it all ?

We didnt sign Allen to any contract. All of that was done by the Colts. We had a need and traded for a veteran player that was known to be a great blocker and had some receiving upside. If the team thinks he is overpaid for the role he turned out to play this year he will either be cut or restructured. But none of this matters right now, once you are past the offseason it makes no difference what you earn.

Some people simply have borderline ******ed expectations based on salaries even though they dont matter. I dont get how people keep watching BB operate for more than 15 years now and still dont understand it..