Double up on OLB early?

[SunnyDenmark]

Yes, we could trade up, use a second, and pick before the jets who are not likely to make any difference to who we pick.

Please list who you would trade a 2nd to move-up for from 23? We could use our tradeable third to move up a bit. If Belichick see a need he will trade up, but I suspect he won't. I am much more interested in moving up from 34.

The best part of my scenario (moving up to Saints pick # 14) is that we will only lose the last of our (3) second round picks. I am not the player evaluation expert that many others here are better at - but it is fairly clear (in my grey matter anyway) that there seems to be more offensive players going in the first 10 picks (in most mocks - especially because of the OT's) which means you are just starting to tap into the best defensive players in the teen picks. So as I posed earlier, at pick # 14 - you could have available to pick from the best or 2nd best CB, OR pick Maualuga (best SILB), OR most likely pick of Cushing / Mathews OR one of top 3-4 DE to OLB conversions.

To me the value there at pick # 14 (and giving up also pick # 58) is worth it than to just sit and wait at #23. Sure - we could get lucky and have a Wilfork drop into our laps. But those days are few and far between. We are only a few difference makers away from another Lombardi. BB / SP have shown to be very reliable with first round picks (not as much with 2nd rounders but that is certainly the same with most teams as well). But the difference, I feel is that at pick 14 (in this draft) you can get a real difference maker (like Mayo wil be), instead of (just) a dependable starter later in the round (Graham, Watson, etc).

Yes, every team needs dependable starters. But Pats have them. What I feel Pats are missing is the 1-2 elite player on defense that changes games (Willie Mac, Ty Law, Brushci in the good 'old days, etc). Pats are only 1-2 pieces away from the next championship and the value (in this draft) is very good for defense in the teen draft picks (mainly due to the expected run on 3-4 OT's in the first 10 picks).

 

[mgteich]

I would have no problem trading our 58 to move up to 15 if there was still a game-changing can't-have stud available. The only one I could see is Maualuga, if the patriots rated him that high.

The best part of my scenario (moving up to Saints pick # 14) is that we will only lose the last of our (3) second round picks. I am not the player evaluation expert that many others here are better at - but it is fairly clear (in my grey matter anyway) that there seems to be more offensive players going in the first 10 picks (in most mocks - especially because of the OT's) which means you are just starting to tap into the best defensive players in the teen picks. So as I posed earlier, at pick # 14 - you could have available to pick from the best or 2nd best CB, OR pick Maualuga (best SILB), OR most likely pick of Cushing / Mathews OR one of top 3-4 DE to OLB conversions.

To me the value there at pick # 14 (and giving up also pick # 58) is worth it than to just sit and wait at #23. Sure - we could get lucky and have a Wilfork drop into our laps. But those days are few and far between. We are only a few difference makers away from another Lombardi. BB / SP have shown to be very reliable with first round picks (not as much with 2nd rounders but that is certainly the same with most teams as well). But the difference, I feel is that at pick 14 (in this draft) you can get a real difference maker (like Mayo wil be), instead of (just) a dependable starter later in the round (Graham, Watson, etc).

Yes, every team needs dependable starters. But Pats have them. What I feel Pats are missing is the 1-2 elite player on defense that changes games (Willie Mac, Ty Law, Brushci in the good 'old days, etc). Pats are only 1-2 pieces away from the next championship and the value (in this draft) is very good for defense in the teen draft picks (mainly due to the expected run on 3-4 OT's in the first 10 picks).

 

[Feep50]

Any combination of 2 from Matthews, Barwin, English and Sintim works for me.

Matthews and Barwin would be my preference.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I would have no problem trading our 58 to move up to 15 if there was still a game-changing can't-have stud available. The only one I could see is Maualuga, if the patriots rated him that high.

I agree about Maualuga. He is a beast. Some say he is only a 2 down player. But what a run stuffer for those 2 downs! It could allow BB to free up Mayo more to rush the QB knowing Maualuga was back their to make the tackle. I could also see taking possibly Brown or Orakpo if they were to fall in the teens. Maybe a CB as both Ellis and Boddens contracts are up next year. If they both leave we could be right back to where we were when Samuel left. So having the choice of one of the top 2 CB's would also be a nice option as well. Lots of good possibilities at pick # 14 and Saints would be foolish not to take a 2nd rounder for it as they are so short on picks this year. I will be very surprised if they took their pick at spot #14 (and not trade down from it). One of the elite OT's could also slide into the teens.

 

[carolinatony]

This is a great year for LB's and we have the picks to do it. Bruschi will retire next year so grab another one this year to groom while the pickens are good.
We need defense and this would make sense but I think this is too perfect .
I just don't believe BB would do this.

 

[mgteich]

We should be able to get Matthews or English at 23 and
Barwin or Sintim at 34.

Any combination of 2 from Matthews, Barwin, English and Sintim works for me.

Matthews and Barwin would be my preference.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

We should be able to get Matthews or English at 23 and
Barwin or Sintim at 34.

Those choices would be music to my ears. Now with CB covered for at least this year, and Sanders re-signed at Safety - I don't see any more clearly need area for upgrade than at LB (both ILB and OLB). Everywhere else it is pretty much just adding to depth. But at LB we are still in need of definatly upgrading the starters (especially with Vrabs gone and Bruschi nearing the end).

 

[mgteich]

We'd also expect to get one or two of the top safeties at 47 and 58 to backup Meriweather and Sanders at FS and SS respectively.

Those choices would be music to my ears. Now with CB covered for at least this year, and Sanders re-signed at Safety - I don't see any more clearly need area for upgrade than at LB (both ILB and OLB). Everywhere else it is pretty much just adding to depth. But at LB we are still in need of definatly upgrading the starters (especially with Vrabs gone and Bruschi nearing the end).

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

WOULD THIS REALLY BE SO BAD FOR 2009 AND FOR THE FUTURE?
OLB/ST Thomas, Woods, Matthews, Banta-Cain
ILB Mayo, Maualuga, Bruschi, Guyton
developmental: Crable, Barwin

Yes, it would indeed be a horrible draft. Maualuga is a very poor choice for NE's 3-4. Matthews is also an unlikeable choice so early in the draft, his Special Teams play would be excellent value, but until he "nuts" up (pun intended) and takes on blockers as a NE LB he'll be very limited and doesn't figure into any playing rotation as a rookie. Further, how in the devil is a 4.5 sack DE/OLB-type a "top" pass rusher in the NFL? Truly not one of your better efforts.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

We'd also expect to get one or two of the top safeties at 47 and 58 to backup Meriweather and Sanders at FS and SS respectively.

Agreed! At pick #47 I would love to take a Safety (especially if L. Delmas is still undrafted). The only other thing I could see (after taking the 2 LB's with first 2 picks) is if at #47 one of the top 2 center/guards (as Pats have rated) were still available. Otherwise, definatly safety. And then 2 third rounders on a WR and then either center /guard or safety (whatever not chosen in 2nd round). Oh man, - with that haul I would love to come to TC and see the 2009 draft haul in action.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Yes, it would indeed be a horrible draft. Maualuga is a very poor choice for NE's 3-4. Matthews is also an unlikeable choice so early in the draft, his Special Teams play would be excellent value, but until he "nuts" up (pun intended) and takes on blockers as a NE LB he'll be very limited and doesn't figure into any playing rotation as a rookie. Further, how in the devil is a 4.5 sack DE/OLB-type a "top" pass rusher in the NFL? Truly not one of your better efforts.

Box, what makes Maualuga a bad fit for Pats 3-4? Sorry if you have already posted this elsewhere. My two kids under 7 don't leave me much time to view all the threads.

 

[Feep50]

We should be able to get Matthews or English at 23 and
Barwin or Sintim at 34.

This would make me very, very happy and solidify the LB core for several years....

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Box, what makes Maualuga a bad fit for Pats 3-4? Sorry if you have already posted this elsewhere. My two kids under 7 don't leave me much time to view all the threads.

Here's his NFL Draft SCout profile:

Maualuga
-- Reads the action quickly.
-- Willing to take on blocks and has the strength and hand technique to shed quickly. (Codswallop from what I've seen on TV, but we'll let it hang.)
-- Gets good depth on his pass drop ...
-- Punishing hitter.
-- Can break down in space to make the secure open-field tackle.
---- Has a tendency to overpursue.
---- Too often relies on his explosive hitting to knock down ballcarriers, rather than wrapping up to make secure tackles.
---- Concerns about his maturity.
---- Repeated troubles while at USC involving fights and alcohol.

As noted above I disagree that he takes on blocks well, if anything he's easily blocked by OL on those occasions I've seen him. He does well against FBs, but he's on rollerskates when an OL gets near him. He's a sideline-to-sideline LB, he can do downhill, but very rarely does. His big hits come when he gets a chance to build up steam. When I watch him on tape I see a 4-3 MLB who needs to be protected by DL - that's not what he'll get in NE.

Strike one - maturity/off-field flags.
Strike two - the games I've seen doesn't have him doing the things he'd need to do as a NE ILB.
Strike three - he showed up for the Senior Bowl out of shape (as reported by multiple outlets including NFL Network) and then had an unimpressive Combine where he was unable to finish the drills after hurting his hammy.

The guy's got tons of talent, but he's not showing me the work ethic needed to harness it at the NFL level - let someone else hold his hand, I'll take Jason Phillips in the 4th round and get a better fit for NE.

 

[mgteich]

My effort was to rationalize the following from one of Ochmed's posts. I tried to show that we indeed could accomodate three linebackers.
"On one of the other sites someone had us taking ReyMal #23, Mathews #34, A Smith next and then Barwin. 3 LBers in the first two rounds."

You must know by now that those would not be my choices. I wouldn't draft Barwin. Seriously, I also think that there is great risk in Matthews weight and conditioning. My first round preference is English, although if Maualaga were available I would trade up for English so we can have both. My third choice is Laurinitis. I would like to get two of the three.

You keep on knocking Maualuga, and keep on bolding his lack of maturity and his being caught drinking alcohol. How terrible indeed for a college player! Seriously, Belichick and staff have been quite able to deal with this issue in the past. His staff is fully able to judge character issues. I would like more an more to come out, so that Maualuga falls.

Your judgement has been that the best place to pick ILB help is later. My strong preference is Day One. I certainly trust Belichick's judgement of linebackers, and how they would fit into his system and roles. However from my limited perspective, Maualuga and Laurinitis would look pretty good next to Mayo. And yes, there would be a learning curve, as there would need to be for anyone.

Yes, it would indeed be a horrible draft. Maualuga is a very poor choice for NE's 3-4. Matthews is also an unlikeable choice so early in the draft, his Special Teams play would be excellent value, but until he "nuts" up (pun intended) and takes on blockers as a NE LB he'll be very limited and doesn't figure into any playing rotation as a rookie. Further, how in the devil is a 4.5 sack DE/OLB-type a "top" pass rusher in the NFL? Truly not one of your better efforts.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

You keep on knocking Maualuga, and keep on bolding his lack of maturity and his being caught drinking alcohol. How terrible indeed for a college player! Seriously, Belichick and staff have been quite able to deal with this issue in the past. His staff is fully able to judge character issues. I would like more an more to come out, so that Maualuga falls.

Your judgement has been that the best place to pick ILB help is later. My strong preference is Day One. I certainly trust Belichick's judgement of linebackers, and how they would fit into his system and roles. However from my limited perspective, Maualuga and Laurinitis would look pretty good next to Mayo. And yes, there would be a learning curve, as there would need to be for anyone.

I note you are "drafting a position," and you are focusing on the two highest rated players "at that position" as ranked by the popular draftnik sites and pundit mocks.
-- What does Maualuga do well that fits within the NE defensive scheme?
-- Is that something worth first round consideration?
-- What does Laurinaitis do well that fits within the NE defefensive scheme?
-- Is that something worth first round consideration?

Seriously, these are two of the most prominent LBs in the nation for fans and pundits, but other than people telling me how famous they are or what a hitter Maualuga is I don't see how they fit or help the Patriots.
-- You want to shrug off Maualuga getting into off-field and alcohol related scrapes, as well as the maturity concerns - well show me where he and Meriweather are similar cases - Brandon was the last kid with character question marks to be drafted in round one, if there are parallels I'd like to know what they are.
-- When I pointed out how similar Laurinaitis was to Mayo and Guyton, you started telling me how BB could use that to be creative - well do it yourself, show us how the pair of Mayo and Laurinaitis inside closes the run lanes and gets the job done.

Why are the top two pundit/draftnik ranked ILBs good fits for NE when that is often the last place we'd be looking?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

You keep on knocking Maualuga, and keep on bolding his lack of maturity and his being caught drinking alcohol. How terrible indeed for a college player! Seriously, Belichick and staff have been quite able to deal with this issue in the past. His staff is fully able to judge character issues.

When draft guides,draftniks and other web sources are talking about Reymal and alcohol, they are usually referring to something more than social drinking. Rumors and whispers are one thing, but putting it in print or on the web is another entirely. And although a strong locker room can create peer pressure, it rarely changes people with pre-existing conditions. I have to go with BOR on this, where there is smoke there is fire.

 

[mgteich]

I believe that he has a problem and that the patriots are well-able to assess whether they can or cannot deal with the issue. If they are not almost sure, they will of course pass, as they should.

When draft guides,draftniks and other web sources are talking about Reymal and alcohol, they are usually referring to something more than social drinking. Rumors and whispers are one thing, but putting it in print or on the web is another entirely. And although a strong locker room can create peer pressure, it rarely changes people with pre-existing conditions. I have to go with BOR on this, where there is smoke there is fire.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

When I pointed out how similar Laurinaitis was to Mayo and Guyton, you started telling me how BB could use that to be creative - well do it yourself, show us how the pair of Mayo and Laurinaitis inside closes the run lanes and gets the job done.

Why are the top two pundit/draftnik ranked ILBs good fits for NE when that is often the last place we'd be looking?

Mayo and Laurenitis is an odd pairing. Mayo has learned to play downhill this year and projects to be much better at it next year while Larenitis often gives ground in order to shed blocks. That might not be the best pairing as far as run defense goes. And while Larenitis improved siginificantly during his senior season at stacking and shedding, clearly he has a long way to go before he could get any reps in our base defense. So maybe a year to sit behind Brusch and get improve technique while getting stronger physically isn't such a bad thing.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I believe that he has a problem and that the patriots are well-able to assess whether they can or cannot deal with the issue. If they are not almost sure, they will of course pass, as they should.

I agree 100%. And we can always find a two dwon ILB later in the draft (Brinkley). But if a team out there thinks Reymal is a 3 down ILB, then he will not make it to #23 anyway and they have saved BB from wrestling with this whole situation.

 

[mgteich]

I expect our choices by draft day will be different than now. Perhaps the positions we want will not be.
==============================================

Let me be serious now. We can all be down on the evaluations by the scouting services and all the pundits, but we post their lists and mocks for a reason. We have been referring pretty often to nfldraftscout. I suspect that many of us have their most recent March 13 list on our desktops. I am not a trained scout. Even if I had that talent, I have not watched the hundreds (if not thousands) of hours of film that the pundits your deride have viewed. Most of the writers of the updated lists of evaluations are much more knowledgable than I am. And, in addition, we have the advantage of seeing all their lists and how they trend. Obviously, we will all know a lot more after all the pro days.

INSIDE LINEBACKER
For now, I am not ready to believe that all the scouts are all wrong about the only two ILB's rated in the top 50. Why should we totally disregard what almost all the analysts are indicating with regard to the ILB position? There are only two that have been thought of as top 50 picks: Maualuga and Laurinitis. There are other rated a bit lower (2-3): Beckwith and Ellerbe. And many agree with you that Brinkley is a value in the 4th. One question is how severe we think our need is and how much we want to draft an ILB from these five. No one is comparing Laurinitis with the DE's or OLB's, but if we want an ILB that has solid prospects without the character issues, then we should be considering Laurinitis at 23. If we pass, we will likely next be considering Beckwith, Ellerbe and Brinkley as we approach our 3rd round picks, hoping that we get on of those. Obviously, we can trade if we really want someone. But there are only five highly rated ILB's in the first four rounds.

I am not an expert in how Belichick would use players. To dismiss a top talent player because he is similar to players we already have with the idea that we will be able to get our future ILB help in the 4th or comp 5th seems very, very, short signted to me. I'd rather try to draft an ILB both early and late.

OUTSIDE LINEBACKER
Here the pickings are a bit better, especially if we include the DE conversions. With Curry Brown, Orakpo and Ayer likely long gone, we hope to choose among most of Matthews, Cushing, English, Sintim, Barwin, and Gilbert. Available DE's perhaps less likely to fit well are Maybin, Jackson. and Johnson. If we must have a project, I would also hope we draft a linebacker who might be ready to contribute later this year. Personally, I don't think I can guess better than the pundits who seem to have us picking Matthews or English at the moment. I trust Belichick to choose well. More important to me than which player we choose is that the OLB position have very high priority.

BOTTOM LINE
As I have said earlier, I would be quite happy choosing English AND Sintim, if Laurinitis and Maualuga were found wanting, or even if we pciked on of them. For example, English, Laurinitis, Chung, and Sintim would make a fine Day One for me. But, again, the key is that we get help at these positions, not the individual players who get chosen.

I note you are "drafting a position," and you are focusing on the two highest rated players "at that position" as ranked by the popular draftnik sites and pundit mocks.
-- What does Maualuga do well that fits within the NE defensive scheme?
-- Is that something worth first round consideration?
-- What does Laurinaitis do well that fits within the NE defefensive scheme?
-- Is that something worth first round consideration?

Seriously, these are two of the most prominent LBs in the nation for fans and pundits, but other than people telling me how famous they are or what a hitter Maualuga is I don't see how they fit or help the Patriots.
-- You want to shrug off Maualuga getting into off-field and alcohol related scrapes, as well as the maturity concerns - well show me where he and Meriweather are similar cases - Brandon was the last kid with character question marks to be drafted in round one, if there are parallels I'd like to know what they are.
-- When I pointed out how similar Laurinaitis was to Mayo and Guyton, you started telling me how BB could use that to be creative - well do it yourself, show us how the pair of Mayo and Laurinaitis inside closes the run lanes and gets the job done.

Why are the top two pundit/draftnik ranked ILBs good fits for NE when that is often the last place we'd be looking?