Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[SVN]

I think BB and Kraft have an agreement about his future and exit strategy and it likely involves putting the team in a position to contend and maybe plan for future coaching. BB wont leave like McVay when the s**t is hitting the fan.

 

[lancerman]

I think it depends on a number of factors. Only two things I think can actually torpedo Belichick and get him ousted next year

1. The team craters to the bottom of the league.

2. Bill marries himself to Matt Patricia and makes a hardline defense of that decision and wants to run it back and we don’t get better results.

Those two will kill any goodwill Bill has to stay on. Literally anything else and he stays if he wants to.

Next year imo, if things don’t work out, he’ll have the excuse of “Mac didn’t workout, we need to find our guy”. Then the year after that it will be “we had a rookie QB, you can’t expect it to be swimmingly right out the gate”. So he has until 2025 to fix the ship before the ocean starts to boil under his seat.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

I’m still not sure we can say with certainty that Bill returns THIS year until we know how the Kraft/BB meeting went.

I can see BB grunting and surly trying to keep MP and run things mostly back being a non-starter for RKK.

I HOPE that doesn’t happen, but so far only BB has actually said he was returning.

As for the question beyond 2023 I would want to see a playoff victory, and a season full of games that do not make me ask “why is this team playing bad football” …full stop.

It isn’t getting beat, it’s getting beat in new an embarrassing ways each time combined with a Jr High offense that was intentionally put on the field.

Bring in a real OC and let him pick his staff, move JJ back to ST, sign some solid FA’s, have a good draft and I’d feel better.

 

[Steve102]

What if...

Bill knew he wasn't getting the OC he wanted so he brought on Judge and Patricia as an experiment, paid them as consultants, which allowed them to continue to be paid on their previous contracts. If it works out, super, if it doesn't they are still here to be moved to a new position with a season under their belt. Let's say the agreement was that BOB was coming after the end of their season, but they had to wait so they bring in the other two to keep the seat warm. So now we just wait and bump FM to Ernie's old role, and Judge to whatever role they wanted for him. Too pie in the sky?

Ok, let's talk about reality for now.

I said in the other thread I wonder if 70-71 year old Bill is capable of doing what 60-65 year old Bill was. I feel that Bill casts such a big shadow that it's possible no one challenges him. Because of that, and his propensity to be around guys he wants to be around, and coach guys he wants to coach, is he capable of turning this thing around? I legit don't know, and that's hard for me to say because I have been IBWT for a long time.

I don't think they are going to win without an elite QB, based on how this roster is built currently. Whether Mac is that comes down to a good OC and QB coach, neither of which I think he got this year. So... need to have an adequate QB, which Mac is, with a stellar defense and elite playmakers. The D is good, but not good enough to carry a subpar offense. Elite playmakers don't grow on trees, and are expensive. Need to draft them, and history has shown that Bill sucks at drafting and developing star WRs. I doubt very much that at 71 years of age, he will suddenly become adept at identifying, drafting, and developing elite wideouts. That means he needs to make Mac elite. How does he do that? Bringing in the right coaches to make that happen. Can he do that? I dunno. Maybe. They've not had a pass rush under Bill like they did this year, so it's possible a leopard changes his spots. Maybe. That's still a huge if that even the best offensive guys can turn Mac into a top tier QB.

Bill has to concede and understand offensively he can’t do it all on his own.

This right here. Bill will need a lot of self analysis to come to this point. RKK can lead him to it, but will bill listen?

BB is stubborn though. I know he claims not to be but he is.

I covered the "I want to coach guys I want to coach" thing above. That's a huge concern to me, as his stubbornness to do it his way.

. The leadership void is a big one which saw all the players talking back and talking openly to the media about coaching and playcalling and offensive system etc.

This is big. Go back to 2001, Bill brought in Bryan Cox, and he brought a toughness and a winning attitude that lacked here in Foxboro. I think there's a lack of guys on the team who know how hard it is to win, and Slate and DMac were playing on the back nine. They need to bring in someone who knows how to win and can take over the locker room, all while staying on point with what Bill wants to do. I have no idea who that is, but a Rodney Harrison type. Swagger, attitude, and the professional cache to get guys attention. Charismatic enough that people listen. Good luck finding that guy.

 

[billdog3484]

I think Kraft is pissed but will give him next year so long as bill isn’t a total a hole and refuse to make coaching changes. If he refuses I’m not sure what to expect.

As for beyond next year, I think it all depends on how it looks next year. This year was such a disaster, specifically the O and ST, that if things are the same next year he’s gone. If he gets some good coaches and it looks good and promising for future he will keep him, even if the record is similar to this year

 

[BradytoMosstoGronk]

10 wins or more, playoff berth minimum would be my guess. Kraft probably wants a playoff win to allow him to keep doing it further.

Man's resume speaks for itself, but there becomes a tipping point for the owner (and i imagine fans to an extent) where a 4th year in a row with nothing to show for it probably becomes a point of contention.

 

[billdog3484]

What if...

Bill knew he wasn't getting the OC he wanted so he brought on Judge and Patricia as an experiment, paid them as consultants, which allowed them to continue to be paid on their previous contracts. If it works out, super, if it doesn't they are still here to be moved to a new position with a season under their belt. Let's say the agreement was that BOB was coming after the end of their season, but they had to wait so they bring in the other two to keep the seat warm. So now we just wait and bump FM to Ernie's old role, and Judge to whatever role they wanted for him. Too pie in the sky?

if this is the case maybe bill should be fired today

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I think BB and Kraft have an agreement about his future and exit strategy and it likely involves putting the team in a position to contend and maybe plan for future coaching. BB wont leave like McVay when the s**t is hitting the fan.

I’d like to think that’s the case…..

But I thought BB had a plan for when Josh McDaniels left, and he didn’t.
And BB had an plan for when Dante left, and he didn’t.
And BB and Kraft had a plan for when Brady left. When he left, they had Stidham and Hoyer on the roster. Cam didn’t happen until just before camp. Did they really think Stidham was the successor???

Point is, I’m not convinced they have things planned out as much we may think they do.

 

[h0c2000]

No, I started this one. We're good. 2023 is going to be a critical season in this regard, so there's a little more validity about next year being a possibility than there is this offseason.

I saw you started this. I was expecting buyer's remorse.

 

[Toofy]

This would be the 5th year without a playoff win if we fail to reach playoffs or win a post season game.

If team trends upwards after 2023 season Bill would continue, else it might be a new coach and who knows few years of basement dwelling before we resume our upwards march.

 

[Steve102]

if this is the case maybe bill should be fired today

Why? What if they knew that BOB wasn't available until '23, they knew they wanted him, and needed to keep the seat warm? Kraft signs off because he pays Judge and Patricia peanuts. If it works, super. If not, build off of '22 and move on.

All of this is just theater anyway. Just a what if.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

send a 2 and 4th rd. pick for hopkins
trade down in the first rd to keep 4 picks in the top 100 and go with OT and CB for the first picks or double dip on OT

 

[SVN]

I’d like to think that’s the case…..

But I thought BB had a plan for when Josh McDaniels left, and he didn’t.
And BB had an plan for when Dante left, and he didn’t.
And BB and Kraft had a plan for when Brady left. When he left, they had Stidham and Hoyer on the roster. Cam didn’t happen until just before camp. Did they really think Stidham was the successor???

Point is, I’m not convinced they have things planned out as much we may think they do.

As we discussed elsewhere, yes they didnt have a plan for Josh leaving. But he took the WR coach,OL coach QB coach all of them with him. With fears and dante retiring thats an awful lot to fill in one year. Not many teams get raided like that in 1 season and have plans for it Not an excuse but this part has been severely underplayed. What might be worrisome is that no new coaches are coming up the ranks in the pats.Hopefulyl its just the case of us not hearing about it.

 

[Ring 6]

Kraft has observed the greatest coach ever for over 20 years. He knows what he has. Kraft isn’t an idiot. Belichick is here as long as he wants to be.

 

[grux]

It's going to be tough. I don't know if another .500 season would be enough, or if an early playoff exit would also potentially be the tipping point. Sort of feels like he's backed into a little bit of a corner but the expectation should be a significant amount spent on free agency, and hopefully retaining guys like Jakobi Meyers, and Jonathan Jones, while potentially adding a significant weapon or two on offense and adding depth in the secondary.

Looking back at this season, one thing that stands out is the fact that they were essentially in every game, which as I said in another thread is a testament to the fact he's still near the top of his game in terms of game-planning, etc. The drop off this season came on the offensive side of the ball and special teams, with both hopefully being addressed this offseason.

The question I have regarding free agency is, what players will want to sign with us if Patricia is still the OC? The Pats used to be a destination for free agents but unfortunately that has changed on the offensive side of the ball. I am hoping they hire and announce a new OC soon, so our current and potential free agent players can work with a OC that has experience.

 

[Hyped]

11+ wins and advancing to at least the AFC divisional round, IMO.

Anything less….then I will start talking about the end of the Patriot career of the greatest coach in all of professional sports!

Some frames of reference:

2003 off season: Rodney Harrison signed with us because he loved that BB was upset with being 9-7.

2007 off season: BB went hard for Moss and Walker (giving a pick to the Fish that he didn’t even have to).

2021 off season: Spending tons in free agency and returning us to the post-season with a rookie QB.

Now here we are….top 5 cap space in the NFL…no truly MAJOR FAs to resign other than Jon Jones…highest draft pick since the Mayo pick in 2010.

 

[Pape]

what needs to happen? a very specific overhaul is what needs to happen...

was reviewing the coaching staff for this years team... It was a lot larger than I expected... on offense, 5 coaches (defacto, if not in title) and 4 assistant coaches... Nine guys on the offensive coaching staff...
OC Matt Patricia
OL Matt Patricia
QB Joe Judge
RB Vinny Sunseri
WR/KR Troy Brown
TE Nick Caley
Assistant OL Billy Yates
Two offensive assistants - Evan Rothstein (2021 research & analysis/coaching - support staff) & Tyler Hughes (2021 Off. assistant)
WR/NFL coaching fellowship - Ross Douglas

So there are nine guys there, which should be more than enough to handle the offensive side of the ball... But there was a major short circuit in offensive production this season... Macs numbers indicate that there were some issues which indicate that the OC didn't put Mac into a position to succeed... the refrain this year was teams knew what we were running before the ball was snapped... I haven't, and won't tbh, sit down and watch the season looking for the tells... let someone who gets paid to write football sit down and do that... But all signs point to Matty P being the problem... He called boring, predictable games... stuff like that gets noticed and picked up on in the NFL...

Secondly, there were an excruciating amount of penalties, especially on the offensive line...
Cole Strange - 17 games, 17 starts - 7 penalties, 5 accepted... 4 holding, 1 false start (rookie season)
Trent Brown - 17 games, 16 starts - 13 penalties, 11 accepted - 5 holding, 5 false start, 1 tripping, 1 illeg. down field (2021 - 1 penalty, 9 games)
David Andrews - 14 games, 14starts - 5 penalties, 5 accepted - 3 holding, 1 chop block, 1 illeg. down field (2021 - 2 penalties, 17 games)
Isaiah Wynn - 9 games, 7 starts - 8 penalties, 8 accepted - 4 holding, 4 false start (in 9 games!!!) (2021 - 9 penalties, 8 accepted, 16 games)
Conor McDermott - 13 games, 6 for NE, 6 starts - 4 pen., 4 acc. - 1 holding, 2 false start, 1 illeg. down field (2021 - 1 penalty, 6 games for nyj)
Marcus Canon - 5 games, 4 starts - 0 penalties (2021 0 penalties, 4 games for Houston)
Yodny Cajuste - 10 games, 3 starts - 1 penalty, 1 accepted - 1 holding (2021 - 0 penalties, 7 games)
James Ferentz - 12 games, 3 starts - 1 penalty, 1 accepted - 1 holding (2021 - 1 penalty, 3 games)

a whopping 35 penalties on the offensive line...

Who was the O Line coach? Matt Patricia...

Sensing a trend here?

BB's future as the HC/GM will continue as long as he acknowledges the short comings and does something, anything to address them... I would love to be a fly on the wall in the end of the season conversation he has with his current staff... to learn waht he sees as the teams short comings and what they need to work on in the off season ... and i dearly hope that means moving Matt Patricia out of such critical roles on the offensive side of the ball

 

[Kontradiction]

He’ll be a 71 year old man at the start of next season whose teams have been a mediocrity since the end of the 2019 season. He hasn’t won a playoff game since Brady left and has only won one playoff game without Brady his entire career. I think he should be given one more year to fix this. The coaching decisions he made going into this season were a disaster and the high-priced 2021 FA class hasn’t had the ROI we thought it would.

Having said all of that, the team has been drafting better since Caserio left and Kraft made it known he wasn’t happy with the drafts before that. The team is also going to be flush with cap space and Mac will be entering his 3rd season as a starter. I would take this year as a make it or break it year. He would need to at least get the team into the playoffs and win a game or else I’ll be absolutely fine with moving on.

 

[Boomer B]

Hypothetical : Kraft decides to move on. A stacked team (à la Bucs 2020) grabs him and they win it all. Does the owner want that to happen ? Not saying it will - or that it’s even a likely scenario - but the chances are ‘more than zero’.

Would be tough for Kraft to watch GOAT qb & HC leave and succeed elsewhere.

If Belichick took over the Bucs team that had Jamis Winston at QB they’d miss the playoffs like they did the years before.

 

[Free_Pacman]

Kraft has observed the greatest coach ever for over 20 years. He knows what he has. Kraft isn’t an idiot. Belichick is here as long as he wants to be.

Exactly. There’s no other answer. Belichick’s coaching seat is the coldest in all of the four major sports. Patriots could go 2-14 next year and that would still be the case.