Does Belichick Last Beyond 2023, and What Needs to Happen?

[farn]

If Belichick took over the Bucs team that had Jamis Winston at QB they’d miss the playoffs like they did the years before.

Brady went to Evans, Godwin, and an excellent D. Brady didn’t ‘go to a Jameis Winston team’.

I was talking hypothetical : if BB goes to a loaded team. Like Brady did.

 

[Boomer B]

Exactly. There’s no other answer. Belichick’s coaching seat is the coldest in all of the four major sports. Patriots could go 2-14 next year and that would still be the case.

You think the Krafts enjoy paying $20+m a year for mediocre results?

The reality is we are a mediocre rebuilding team with a 71 year old coach. How much time does he get to rebuild at 71? If he’s 72 or 73 and we aren’t a contender do the Krafts keep wanting to pay a coach 3x what they could pay for someone much younger that could be part of the team long term?

 

[Boomer B]

Brady went to Evans, Godwin, and an excellent D. Brady didn’t ‘go to a Jameis Winston team’.

I was talking hypothetical : if BB goes to a loaded team. Like Brady did.

It took Brady (all time best QB) to take a 7-9 team and win them the SB. If BB went there it wouldn’t be with Brady, it would be with Winston, a rookie, or a journeyman QB.

Part of the greatness of Belichick is how he built the organization over the long term. It took years for him to revamp the front office, scouting, coaches, trainers, his type of players, … to get the organization to how he wanted it. He’s not just gonna walk in somewhere with nothing in place and everything turns around at once.

 

[Real fan 02]

I know people would like to discuss this, so given that Bill has already said he's coming back for the 2023 season, and it would be pretty surprising to see Kraft move on from him - barring a refusal to make changes - what do you think needs to happen for him to last beyond this season? And do you think he can make enough moves this offseason to make them competitive enough to be a factor next January?

With free agency two months away, it should be interesting to see people's outlooks a couple of months from now. Hopefully, we'll see some good moves including within the coaching staff.

I'll say that we had enough offensively this season to be a 10, 11 win team.. it was all about coaching. The best coaching on this team was done on the defense.. ST coaching was an issue, we all know the offensive coaching was bad.

However I believe the pressure alone from ownership will prompt changes.. enough with these nameless positions for the coaches. Give these guys the titles so everyone is clear on thier respective jobs, so the players can be clear on things.

Those moves worked when the GOAT was here. I believe BB will be here, I feel the staff will be upgraded with people who are qualified to be in those respective positions.. my personal feelings are Nick Caley gets promoted to offensive Coordinator and has the actual title!!

Trade, acquire, somehow get some elite talent on offense so the guys we do have can all slide down to thier respective 3 and 4th positions at WR.

Add a vet or 2 in the secondary at CB.. Jonathan Jones plays hard love the kid, but he's not a #1 corner.. the jets have the best formula defensively to stiffle Buffalo.. sauce absolutely erases WRs..

That blue print works!!

It may be wishing upon a star However changes are coming one way or another!

 

[maust]

I think the big drop off was how situationally dumb the team was. And also how they dont have the leaders to get in the faces. Too many nice guys in slater and mcourty but no one like edelman or brady . The leadership void is a big one which saw all the players talking back and talking openly to the media about coaching and playcalling and offensive system etc.

^ This, the absence of 'Belichick guy' veteran on-field leadership is a big in and of itself. That overall lack of BB type leaders was a direct result of breaking from the previous business model of letting guys go too early versus too late because those last couple of bites at the apple were right there to be had. They held on to High & Chung, Edelman & Gronk. They agreed to not franchising Brady, held onto Jimmy G to the last moment (diminishing his trade value) and allowed Thuney to play out his contract year. When in the previous 20 years did the Pats ever allow anything close to all of that happen? We're talking about the same team that franchised Cassel rather than see him walk. They did all that knowing the price would subsequently have to be paid, It turns out that one of the costs none of us saw coming was the absolute dearth of veteran Patriot Way leadership when the smoke cleared.

Still, lest anyone forget, those last couple of trips to the Super Bowl did happen, as did that sixth championship. I think, unlike some Pats fans, when push comes to shove RKK and Jonathan both know that and BB gets slack because they signed off on it at the time.

 

[Ring 6]

It took Brady (all time best QB) to take a 7-9 team and win them the SB. If BB went there it wouldn’t be with Brady, it would be with Winston, a rookie, or a journeyman QB.

Part of the greatness of Belichick is how he built the organization over the long term. It took years for him to revamp the front office, scouting, coaches, trainers, his type of players, … to get the organization to how he wanted it. He’s not just gonna walk in somewhere with nothing in place and everything turns around at once.

He did. Here. Win the SB in year 2.

 

[venecol]

Hypothetical : Kraft decides to move on. A stacked team (à la Bucs 2020) grabs him and they win it all. Does the owner want that to happen ? Not saying it will - or that it’s even a likely scenario - but the chances are ‘more than zero’.

Would be tough for Kraft to watch GOAT qb & HC leave and succeed elsewhere.

Which stacked team is in need of a GM/HC? The only team in need of both is ARI, who has a lot of issues and about to trade Hopkins. Unless you mean Bill will work for another GM after spending 22 years buying the groceries.

 

[Ring 6]

You think the Krafts enjoy paying $20+m a year for mediocre results?

The reality is we are a mediocre rebuilding team with a 71 year old coach. How much time does he get to rebuild at 71? If he’s 72 or 73 and we aren’t a contender do the Krafts keep wanting to pay a coach 3x what they could pay for someone much younger that could be part of the team long term?

The results they’ve gotten from bill belichick are anything but mediocre.

 

[archstanton543]

He did. Here. Win the SB in year 2.

Completely different situation. For that to play out, he'd need to draft the GOAT in the later rounds of the draft and then, once he finds that player, play him over the established guy who just signed a 10-year extension. Also, most of the team would have to have been built by a guy who he was the DC for for years.

 

[Ring 6]

Completely different situation. For that to play out, he'd need to draft the GOAT in the later rounds of the draft and then, once he finds that player, play him over the established guy who just signed a 10-year extension. Also, most of the team would have to have been built by a guy who he was the DC for for years.

He did it.

 

[All3Phases]

This team will probably only improve slightly in record (9-8 or 10-7) and I only say that because the schedule will be tough, because we'll likely be breaking in some new coaches at the start, and maybe a QB, BUT I expect them to be playing their best football at the end of next year, and for them to be highly dangerous.

Based on what? They’ve only gotten worse as the years gone on for 4 years now

 

[venecol]

This team will probably only improve slightly in record (9-8 or 10-7) and I only say that because the schedule will be tough, because we'll likely be breaking in some new coaches at the start, and maybe a QB, BUT I expect them to be playing their best football at the end of next year, and for them to be highly dangerous.

I don't think it's unreasonable to hope for 10-7 and AFCG, but that does mean you go up against Buffalo or KC or Cincy on the road, maybe 2 of them.

I agree that with their $37M in cap and 11 draft picks they're likely to end up w/ 9 or 10 wins. But we've seen all the other 8-9 teams being real close also. Even if they make the playoffs, I don't expect them to be able to match up against BUF, CIN, KC with the large disparity in talent since coaching is no longer a plus on our side (more like equal).

I certainly don't see a wholesale change or major uptick in talent unless we're likely to hit on two All Pros in the draft. There's just too many needs: two OTs + OL depth, WR1, CB1, NT, dual-LB, and major improvement in QB play.

Then there's the coaching. Who knows what Bill does. My money is on him continuing the experiment with the sales pitch being: "It will be better for the team not to give a 3rd OC to our 3rd year QB. We aren't the Jets."

I mean do we believe Bill is going to go through the Rooney Rule process? Has he ever? There's a lot of openings for OC / HCs out there. F*ck, I'm depressed.

 

[XLIX]

I believe he is targeting Shula's record and I believe he will be allowed to pass it here in New England, which will take until 2024 if he is lucky, 2025 if he is not.

While I believe Belichick the HC is safe, I can definitely see Kraft taking away some of his authority in other areas. Player/personnel decisions, including the draft, may be given to someone else.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Based on what? They’ve only gotten worse as the years gone on for 4 years now

7-9, 10-7 and 8-9 is not gradually worse.

 

[PaulNEPats]

Kraft isn’t getting any younger and doesn’t seem in a hurry to turn things over to Jonathan. I don’t think he wants to start over with a new regime unless Bill calls it a career.

 

[farn]

It took Brady (all time best QB) to take a 7-9 team and win them the SB. If BB went there it wouldn’t be with Brady, it would be with Winston, a rookie, or a journeyman QB.

Part of the greatness of Belichick is how he built the organization over the long term. It took years for him to revamp the front office, scouting, coaches, trainers, his type of players, … to get the organization to how he wanted it. He’s not just gonna walk in somewhere with nothing in place and everything turns around at once.

We’ll need to agree / disagree. The Bucs were full of talent and added to it in the offseason (including Brady). If you think the 2020 Bucs were a bunch of schmucks + Brady, then we aren’t on the same page.

 

[Ring 6]

I'll say that we had enough offensively this season to be a 10, 11 win team.. it was all about coaching. The best coaching on this team was done on the defense.. ST coaching was an issue, we all know the offensive coaching was bad.

However I believe the pressure alone from ownership will prompt changes.. enough with these nameless positions for the coaches. Give these guys the titles so everyone is clear on thier respective jobs, so the players can be clear on things.

Those moves worked when the GOAT was here. I believe BB will be here, I feel the staff will be upgraded with people who are qualified to be in those respective positions.. my personal feelings are Nick Caley gets promoted to offensive Coordinator and has the actual title!!

Trade, acquire, somehow get some elite talent on offense so the guys we do have can all slide down to thier respective 3 and 4th positions at WR.

Add a vet or 2 in the secondary at CB.. Jonathan Jones plays hard love the kid, but he's not a #1 corner.. the jets have the best formula defensively to stiffle Buffalo.. sauce absolutely erases WRs..

That blue print works!!

It may be wishing upon a star However changes are coming one way or another!

It’s a 10 win team if the ref doesn’t blow the call on the raider TD catch and Stevenson doesn’t fumble away the cincy game largely because the ref didn’t call forward progress stopped. That literally means it had enough talent to win 10 games.
That doesn’t include the blown hunter Henry call either.

 

[venecol]

I think Kraft sees marketing potential in BB's pursuit of Schula, not overt but by way of building fan interest leading to more national tv coverage leading to more $$$. Kraft's also a fan and would like it to happen on his watch. He just needs Bill not to mess things up like this year. So, as long as BB gets the boat pointing in the right direction again he stays.

I figure Bill will need 3.5 seasons to reach Shula. Is it really better for the team to wait until Bill is 74 yo to reach a meaningless goal for the Patriots while wallowing in the shadows of the Bills?

That's a big fat NO from me. That shouldn't even be a consideration. Give Bill 2023 to get us to at least: #2 in the division, one game back from the Bills, and one WC win. Then he gets another year since that would be progress. If he fails on any of these, we thank him for his excellent career as the GOAT HC in NEP history and watch him sail into the sunset.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Belichick's job is completely safe, despite all the BS takes to the contrary. The Krafts know they have one of the best HC's in the league, and that will be the case till the day he dies. Look at wunderkid McVay as an example of the shiny new toy who everyone thought was a better coach than BB. If anything, Kraft made a mistake last year talking about a playoff victory and bad drafts - he needs to stop pandering to the loser media around here and do everything possible to support his coach.

This team is poised to go a long way next season, very bullish on them - they are more like a 10-win team in terms of evaluating them. The D is ascending, they have a bunch of picks and a favorable cap situation. The offense stabilized late in the year and showed some promise once RT settled down. They played great against the Bills, showing what a difference Parker makes too.

 

[venecol]

It's going to be tough. I don't know if another .500 season would be enough, or if an early playoff exit would also potentially be the tipping point. Sort of feels like he's backed into a little bit of a corner but the expectation should be a significant amount spent on free agency, and hopefully retaining guys like Jakobi Meyers, and Jonathan Jones, while potentially adding a significant weapon or two on offense and adding depth in the secondary.

Looking back at this season, one thing that stands out is the fact that they were essentially in every game, which as I said in another thread is a testament to the fact he's still near the top of his game in terms of game-planning, etc. The drop off this season came on the offensive side of the ball and special teams, with both hopefully being addressed this offseason.

The drop off came in the multitude of mistakes made by the entire team. Which has been a constant pattern the last three seasons. Every year from 2019 to 2022 the team has a losing record during Dec-Jan, consistently. That's the exact opposite of what this team did prior to 2019. If it was 1 year losing, another winning, maybe. But four years in a row? That's a pattern. This is with different OCs, QBs, it didn't matter. Why is that? Why has this team fallen apart at the end of every single season for 4 straight years?