Hi, been thinking about the numbers we've been seeing, various places, and the exponential spread.
I've previously posted the fivefold per week number, which would have us going from last Sunday's 300 deaths to 1,500 by this Sunday. It's Tuesday night, 3/24 (3/25 in Greenwich, UK, this site's timestamp convention.) We've got 775 dead. Earlier tonight we'd barely gone over 600. Stuff is going nuts. Sunday morning to Tuesday night.... I believe there were actually 320 deaths in the a.m. on Sunday, call it 450 deaths since then (from that base of 320 or so).
Like I say, the fivefold rule would have us at 1,500 by this Sunday. 7,500 the following Sunday. Then the moment of truth - if, God forbid, it still holds, 37,500 by the following Sunday, dead. 187,500 the Sunday after.
I've asked people for ANY evidence that this course will change. Nobody has any. So here are some numerical good things and bad things.
Good Thing: There seems to be a leveling off effect in other places.
Bad Thing: The effect only exists thus far in countries that have taken much more stringent social distancing measures than we have (and the measures we
have taken are presently too stringent for our leadership's tastes.)
So China, which has had this since last winter, has a total of 3,281 deaths.
China Coronavirus: 81,218 Cases and 3,281 Deaths - Worldometer
On 2/12 they had this huge spike in new cases, then they turned a corner in total cases and in new cases. Note also that it looks like they got their arms around the overwhelming of the hospitals, and the death rate went WAY down. There might be other explanations, e.g. grouping of when deaths were reported?
Now that said, in terms of Coronavirus numbers, "China" is really Wuhan, a city of 11 million, about 3 million more than New York, and the rest of Hubei province (60 m total). 3160 out of 3281 deaths were in Wuhan and Hubei province. They are about to lift some travel restrictions. They've been on lockdown since 1/23.
China to lift lockdown on Wuhan, ground zero of coronavirus pandemic - CNN
So we're instituting lockdowns, sorta. Nothing like a Chinese version, I am sure.
So a few questions. If Hubei and Wuhan could produce about 3,200 deaths with super tight restrictions...
1) What's the potential for the number of U.S. clusters? Is it a half-dozen hot spots? A dozen? 20? or just a thousand or more deaths for any city with a population of a million or more?
- Answer unknown; Maybe just NYC and Seattle, then scattered cases, once it's all over. I doubt it.
2) We have to assume that denser areas are more amenable to really outrageous spread. So the big jump in deaths in Louisiana - how much of that is NO, for example?
3) Where does it level off
without aggressive measures to control the spread/flatten the curve? I.e., if we do the Spring Break thing Trump has promised us on Easter Sunday?
4) We are not prepared for what's coming at our hospitals. They are becoming overwhelmed already. This is a feature of the Italian experience as well. Cuomo briefings are good watching for talking logistics: How many masks, vents, gowns needed, etc. We're going to start losing our medical people, of course. I am not sure how to factor that in.
Italy has had 6,820 deaths. There were 742 deaths - about our total - on Tuesday (today). Compared with us, they're virtually under house arrest. That's us in what, 2 weeks? Except we haven't instituted nearly as draconian crackdowns on movement. Then again we didn't all go out and hug a Chinese person, for our xenophobes who believe the virus is mandarin-speaking.
I guess my questions boil down to this: If you can manage about 3,200 deaths in basically one city and the surrounding burbs and towns... what are we looking at? The eventual toll in another such city, not as densely packed, and a smaller one (Seattle), with their burbs?
Or (this really seems more likely) many cities, burbs, and towns, only beginning with New York and Seattle?
If we go past that 1,500 number as a country by Sunday, and I don't know of anything that would suggest we don't, the next milestone is Sunday, 4/5. By the current 5fold increase curve, we would go to 7,500, or twice China's eventual death toll (to date).
I actually think the total deaths in China (if honestly recorded) reflect what to expect with a total affected population of 60 million. They quarantined TF out of that province, and now where we're at is everybody who was gonna get it, got it.
Do we get the same results, x6, for the larger U.S. population, leaving aside the rest of China?
Hell, where does it end in New York? The present contribution of NY state to the total death toll is 271 on 26,348 total cases. Just north of 1% of known cases. They think that their known cases will hit 160,000 at their peak. 20% of that makes 32,000 severe cases 3-4 weeks from now. Okay. Let's say that the fact that hospitals are overwhelmed will not increase the death toll (it will). Let's hold everything but the ratio and rate constant - 1% of 160,000 is 1,600 deaths in New York alone.
But do we really think that with the hospitals reduced to just counting the dead, that 1% number will be real?
I guess that's the 2nd question, after the question of how many NYs we will have.
Eh well just some chipper thoughts before bed.
We have a box of masks. They sure aint the good ones but I gotta find 'em to wear one next time I get the mail.
