The point is that a lot of data indicates that many if not most people who are INFECTED are ASYMPTOMATIC. That % added to those who those who have diagnosed with the disease lower the Mortality Rate. IOW the virus many not be as dangerous as portrayed.
No, that's exactly how I and everybody else here have portrayed it for weeks. Perhaps you have added something by liberally CAPITALIZING.
13, if you have no symptoms and catch the seasonal flu, never go to a doctor, and of course, don't die, you don't go into the denominator group when we say that .1% who catch the seasonal flu die of it. Same sing.
Let's say a million Americans die of COVID. Let's say through testing, admissions, everything we have solid data for, we come to a number that 100 million had COVID-19. Then we do the math and the percentage is 1%, 10x as deadly as the number we bandy around for the seasonal flu.
What you're SCREAMING about in ALL CAPS is that it's NOT AS DEADLY because the DENOMINATOR WAS BIGGER -- in the above example, actually 200 million had it, including previously uncounted mild or asymptomatic cases. It's not as deadly as you thought!
Look, I'm not wishing for bad outcomes but by the same token you can't spin yourself or wish yourself into good outcomes.
That said, I'd love for the number of deaths and infections to suddenly turn into a non-exponential, additive function (or better yet, to decline). If we go the way we've been going, though, it'll take a month to get to 187,500 dead. Actually 4 weeks = 28 days. So, 4/19 or so.
IF the exponential rise continues. I hope to God it doesn't, and I think it
will flatten out somewhat. Hell I'm not a fortuneteller, I'm just a guy who washes his hands a lot.
You can be asymptomatic and not be counted, great. The actual rate among known cases is still extremely high. It would be lower if you counted people never tested - but regardless of rate, the number of deaths is the driving concern. If we lost 20 people but only ever recognized 20 cases, it would be 100% fatal. In fact, outbreaks happen all the time that are more like that example. It's how a virus "shoots itself in its foot," killing the host before it can be spread.
The rate of increase of known cases has just begun to hit the asymoptotic part of the curve (the handle of the hockey stick.) So has the number of dead.
All the data is important and all the data count, but trying to jump up and down about the good news that more people are infected and therefore the mortality rate is lower is getting excited about the wrong thing if you ax me.