NE-VT
On the Game Day Roster
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2014
- Messages
- 396
- Reaction score
- 970
@Deus Irae (and anyone else) Thank you for engaging with those previous posts. I was hoping at least someone else would also think this is an interesting question: How good would Jimmy have to be in for it to have better to have shipped Brady? (as judged by SB winning %)
Of course, winning is a team stat. I am going to assume the the team's effort is completely described by the QB play. This is just to save typing. I am just going to say "QB X is perfectly average, so it would be 1/32 chances", rather than saying "team Y is perfectly average while QB X plays". It is a linguistic trick, not a deep assumption.
Good point, I agree. Let me offer a couple of suggested categories:
Garbage Fire QB = 1/1000
Average QB = 1/32 (No team is perfectly average like this. This is a baseline)
Average Playoff QB = 1/12 (Gets you to playoffs, then a toss up)
Sightly-Above Average Playoff QB = 1/10
GOAT = 1/3
Now of course, we would never expect a QB to be exactly at 1/32. Perhaps Dalton has bounced around between 1/20 & 1/40 depending on how his team is doing. We both understand that leaving him at 1/32 for multiple years would be a simplifying assumption that we could relax.
I understood your point about how few people have actually won the SB. I believe that type of analysis would be better to answer a different type of question. For now I would like us to table that good point of yours, but we can come back to it.
----
I have just finished an R-script that we can use to quickly test out different hypothetical situations as I was suggesting before. R is a programing language I use for work and research. I want to share the script and the reasoning behind my initial estimates for Brady and Jimmy. Yet first I wanted to make sure we were on the same page about the stuff above.
For those who want to check out the punch line before the discussion:
R-Fiddle
You can click on "run script". Brady wins again.
Of course, winning is a team stat. I am going to assume the the team's effort is completely described by the QB play. This is just to save typing. I am just going to say "QB X is perfectly average, so it would be 1/32 chances", rather than saying "team Y is perfectly average while QB X plays". It is a linguistic trick, not a deep assumption.
If you wanted to establish a generic baseline for JAG as JAG, it would be a matter of defining his group, and then making him just 1 of it.
Good point, I agree. Let me offer a couple of suggested categories:
Garbage Fire QB = 1/1000
Average QB = 1/32 (No team is perfectly average like this. This is a baseline)
Average Playoff QB = 1/12 (Gets you to playoffs, then a toss up)
Sightly-Above Average Playoff QB = 1/10
GOAT = 1/3
Now of course, we would never expect a QB to be exactly at 1/32. Perhaps Dalton has bounced around between 1/20 & 1/40 depending on how his team is doing. We both understand that leaving him at 1/32 for multiple years would be a simplifying assumption that we could relax.
I understood your point about how few people have actually won the SB. I believe that type of analysis would be better to answer a different type of question. For now I would like us to table that good point of yours, but we can come back to it.
----
I have just finished an R-script that we can use to quickly test out different hypothetical situations as I was suggesting before. R is a programing language I use for work and research. I want to share the script and the reasoning behind my initial estimates for Brady and Jimmy. Yet first I wanted to make sure we were on the same page about the stuff above.
For those who want to check out the punch line before the discussion:
R-Fiddle
You can click on "run script". Brady wins again.
Last edited: