Can the Patriots still win low-scoring games?

[BradyManny]

Back from my self-imposed sports vacation (while I'm still trying to stay away as much as humanly possible) - I had a thought today, which was the realization that the MVP never wins the Super Bowl for a good reason:

Any team that relies on one player too much is bound to fail.

So I thought, how much do the Pats rely on Brady? Can we still grind out victories, can we still win low scoring games?

I looked through the past 3 Brady seasons and 23 points was the magic number. If we hit that # or higher, we were - more often than not - likely to win the game.

Under 23 points, however, our record was terrible. Consider:

Including postseason play, when scoring UNDER 23 points, these elite QBs' teams have the following record in their last 3 full seasons of play*:

Patriots: 4-9 or .307
Colts: 9-10 or .473
Steelers: 9-11 or .450
Saints: 4-9 or .307
Chargers: 4-12 or .250
Falcons: 11-12 or .478
Packers: 7-11 or .389

*I replaced the Patriots 2008 under Cassel with Brady in 2007

The bottom line is: if Brady has a bad game, we are likely to lose. And consider that elite defense are holding teams to 14-16 points, so it's not like putting up "under 23" even automatically indicates a bad offensive game. Truthfully, if this offense has an even mediocre showing, we are likely to lose.

For the Steelers or Colts it's closer to 50-50. Almost as remarkable is how few times we've scored under that apparently magic number of 23 in the past 3 Brady-led seasons in this offense.

EDIT: Thanks to Gost for pointing out my SEVERAL errors

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Back from my self-imposed sports vacation (while I'm still trying to stay away as much as humanly possible) - I had a thought today, which was the realization that the MVP never wins the Super Bowl for a good reason:

Any team that relies on one player too much is bound to fail.

So I thought, how much do the Pats rely on Brady? Can we still grind out victories, can we still win low scoring games?

I looked through the past 3 Brady seasons and 23 points was the magic number. If we hit that # or higher, we were - more often than not - likely to win the game.

Under 23 points, however, our record was terrible. Consider:

Including postseason play, when scoring UNDER 23 points, these elite QBs' teams have the following record in their last 3 full seasons of play*:

Patriots: 4-9 or .307
Colts: 9-10 or .473
Steelers: 9-11 or .450
Saints: 4-9 or .307
Chargers: 4-12 or .250

*I replaced the Patriots 2008 under Cassel with Brady in 2007

The bottom line is: if Brady has a bad game, we are going to lose almost literally 9 out of 10 times. For the Steelers, Saints or Packers, it's closer to 50-50. Almost as remarkable is how few times we've scored under that apparently magic number of 23 in the past 3 Brady-led seasons in this offense.

Rodney Harrison,Tedy Bruschi,Willie Mac,Ty Law,Richard Seymour....the list goes on and on...

Those players were the reasons why we won those low scoring games in the glory years...nowadays with a young defense you must win most of the times with either high scoring games or to hope the other team coughs up the ball and makes mistakes

While this defense looks promising,it still is very young in many spots and while the players age and HOPEFULLY improve along the way we will probably have to put up tons of points for awhile yet,these guys will have to learn to play lights out when the game is tight...the Green Bay/NE game this year was a perfect start to learn how to play with little room for comfort but then again we will never know if Rodgers would have won that game anyway,Flynn looked like Montana that game.

The 2010 team and possibly the 2011 team will have to carry the load on Brady's shoulders unless we have awesome FA signings in the weak spots on the D

 

[GostkowSKI]

Quick correction, the Pats beat Carolina 20-10 and Buffalo 17-10 in back to back weeks in 2009.

Great post though, very interesting stat.

 

[GostkowSKI]

Actually one more, they beat the Jets 20-10 in 2007 as well. I think all together I'm counting 3 wins from 2007 to now when the Pats score under 23.

 

[BradyManny]

The 2010 team and possibly the 2011 team will have to carry the load on Brady's shoulders unless we have awesome FA signings in the weak spots on the D

Agree, while admitting there is potential for this defense.

FYI, updated the stats to fix a miscount in the Pats 2009 season...they won two games under these circumstances that season.

 

[BradyManny]

Actually one more, they beat the Jets 20-10 in 2007 as well. I think all together I'm counting 3 wins from 2007 to now when the Pats score under 23.

Damn, good catch. I double checked all the other teams, but figured I knew the Pats well enough I had it right...whoops.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FWIW, the average team in 2010 scored 22 points per game.

Over the last four years, here's how the Pats D has done compared to that mark:
Year Games opponents under 22 / Games opponents under 10
2010 8/4
2009 11/3
2008 10/3
2007 11/3

In any case, note that the Patriots were held under that magic number of 22 apparently 13 times in 48 games; the Patriots D held 30 of 48 opponents under that number.

[Note that I'm only comparing teams to the league average here, not to their own averages.]

 

[GostkowSKI]

One more, sorry if it appears I'm piling on when that's not the case at all.

Pats beat the Chargers 21-12 in the 2007 AFCCG.

I think all together I counted 4-9 since 2007, I'm going to double-check and post.

 

[BradyManny]

One more, sorry if it appears I'm piling on when that's not the case at all.

Pats beat the Chargers 21-12 in the 2007 AFCCG.

I think all together I counted 4-9 since 2007, I'm going to double-check and post.

I appreciate, want to get it accurate. Serves me right for posting rusty.

 

[GostkowSKI]

12/06/07 - Beat Jets 20-10
01/20/08 - Beat Chargers 21-12
02/03/08 - Lost to Giants 17-14

09/20/09 - Lost to Jets 16-9
10/11/19 - Lost to Broncos 20-17
11/30/09 - Lost to Saints 38-17
12/06/09 - Lost to Dolphins 22-21
12/13/09 - Beat Panthers 20-10
12/20/09 - Beat Bills 17-10
01/10/10 - Lost to Ravens 33-14

09/19/10 - Lost to Jets 28-14
11/07/10 - Lost to Browns 34-14
01/16/11 - Lost to Jets 28-21

4-9 record all together.

 

[BradyManny]

FWIW, the average team in 2010 scored 22 points per game.

Over the last four years, here's how the Pats D has done compared to that mark:
Year Games opponents under 22 / Games opponents under 10
2010 8/4
2009 11/3
2008 10/3
2007 11/3

Note that I'm only comparing teams to the league average here, not to their own averages.

Interesting, a little less shabby in that sense, I suppose, depending on how you read it. I suppose 22 should be the cutoff for my analysis then if that is the average, it would have more statistical meaning.

 

[Shelterdog]

12/06/07 - Beat Jets 20-10
01/20/08 - Beat Chargers 21-12
02/03/08 - Lost to Giants 17-14

09/20/09 - Lost to Jets 16-9
10/11/19 - Lost to Broncos 20-17
11/30/09 - Lost to Saints 38-17
12/06/09 - Lost to Dolphins 22-21
12/13/09 - Beat Panthers 20-10
12/20/09 - Beat Bills 17-10
01/10/10 - Lost to Ravens 33-14

09/19/10 - Lost to Jets 28-14
11/07/10 - Lost to Browns 34-14
01/16/11 - Lost to Jets 28-21

4-9 record all together.

And they beat the Chargers and Ravens 23-20 this year.

6-9 I think.

 

[BradyManny]

And they beat the Chargers and Ravens 23-20 this year.

6-9 I think.

I went under 23, not including - that seemed to be the barrier, the 23 point mark.

 

[Deus Irae]

New England's defense was pretty bad in 2009 and 2010, so it makes sense that team would have a poor record in games where the offense struggled.

 

[BradyManny]

Also, the post should say Steelers or Colts are close to .500 - not Saints, as obviously their record is shabby like ours, as is Rivers. I took out Rodgers as I flubbed those #s somehow too, I believe their % is .389 since they were 0-6 in 2008 when scoring under 23. Yikes.

It is surprising how well Indy and Pittsburgh have done when in low scoring games, particularly Indy. One would expect quite the opposite for them.

 

[BradyManny]

12/06/07 - Beat Jets 20-10
01/20/08 - Beat Chargers 21-12
02/03/08 - Lost to Giants 17-14

09/20/09 - Lost to Jets 16-9
10/11/19 - Lost to Broncos 20-17
11/30/09 - Lost to Saints 38-17
12/06/09 - Lost to Dolphins 22-21
12/13/09 - Beat Panthers 20-10
12/20/09 - Beat Bills 17-10
01/10/10 - Lost to Ravens 33-14

09/19/10 - Lost to Jets 28-14
11/07/10 - Lost to Browns 34-14
01/16/11 - Lost to Jets 28-21

4-9 record all together.

Cool, many thanks for the fix :rocker:

 

[BradyManny]

FWIW, I got the Falcons at 11-12 over the last 3 years < 23 points....if you call Matt Ryan elite that is.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

And, interestingly enough, I think Matt Cassel went fairly close to .500 in 2008. . . .

 

[BradyManny]

And, interestingly enough, I think Matt Cassel went fairly close to .500 in 2008. . . .

Yup, 4-4 by my count as well (including week 1, when Cassel entered).

Our weak schedule in 2008 combined with the remaining parts of what was once a good defense make you wonder what a healthy Brady could've done...just another painful "what-if" over the past several years.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I don't think they "can't" win low-scoring games, but I know they don't want that. The proof is in their consistent risk-taking on fourth down and disdain for punting/ settling for field goals. Not sure if anyone noticed, but the teams in the AFC/NFC championship games this season would take a no-brainer approach to punting the ball on 4th and 6 from the forty-yard line. Since the offense was revamped in 2007, the Patriots typically go for it on 4th and 10+ from that field position. It's obvious that players, coaches, and fans alike begin to panic if they don't score a touchdown on their first two drives of the game.