Broncos/Patriots matchup

[Deus Irae]

That should read "Man 0" not "Man" which is typically Man 1. And that is not typical in the NFL. Hell the Jets rarely run "true man" and as far as I can tell from watching a lot of football that is more than every other team in the league. The Jets when they blitz leave Revis in Man with a safety rolled to the other side.

I don't see how I moved the goal posts. I feel like I stayed well within what we were discussing.

Trying to claim man coverages aren't traditional NFL coverages is either lying or moving the goalposts. I've read enough of your stuff that I don't believe you to be a liar. The other option therefore....

 

[PatriotSeven]

I'm with you in general here. The first pass was not a bad pass. It was a pass wide to the sideline to avoid the close covering defender. It was a miss, but it was a miss in the right area under the circumstances, and the window to make a 'hit' was a small one, so I'm with you on it not being a bad pass.

But that 3rd and 8 was a bad pass. The highlight film you linked to verifies it. Take a look at 9:20-9:24, focusing particularly on 9:23-9:24. The receiver was open and the pass was just a bad one.

Like I said, I understand that. But again not only does it not show you what the QB sees, but you are still talking about 1 pass out of 21.

Last time I checked there aren't too many QB's that go perfect every Sunday let alone with a mediocre receiving core. It's not like even Brees or Rodgers or Brady don't miss every game.

 

[pherein]

I'm calling them the Denver Tebows in order to distinguish the games started by Tebow from the games not started by Tebow, nothing more.

However, the notion that Tebow didn't do much to win those games is absurd.

Why is it absurd ? His QBR and comp % is the worst in the NFL, even his running stats are not the best compared to Cam, vick. Why is it absurd?
You saying he brings an added dimension ?
Because he's not rated well at all as a QB. I mean your defending a guy that has worst stats than sanchez. I want to know why.
I think I could plug Matt Ryan into DEN and get better QB play. Probably more wins.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not impressed by his average, because I know, like with most QB it's heavily dependent on yards after catch. But I have paid attention to Tebow's actual passes all season and I have seen enough to be convinced he's an accurate passer who is overly conservative in not throwing interceptions. I understand what Tebow completes. I understand he has a low % percentage. I am telling you a QB's completion % has less than half to do with the QB's actual accuracy.

completion % =/ accuracy.

I would agree that the difference between 65 and 63% could be for reasons other than accuracy.
But 46% to any other Qb in the NFL is such a humongous gap that it is incredulous that you can even try to make that argument.
If you are convinced he is an accuragte passer, then your standard of accurate passer has to be the lowest in the world.
The 'more than half' other than accuracy that leads to completion percentage are solely the excuses you want to make.

Never has and never will. Probably as little as 30% of that is accuracy with the remainder of it being made up by your receiver's catching ability, route running, play calling, etc. It depends on too many other factors. I saw him do this as far back as Kansas City when he only threw 8 passes. I saw him make 6 great throws, only 2 of which were actually caught, one pass interference and one underthrown ball. When you throw only 8 passes in a game even one throw away can cost you 20% in completion %.

So he is the only QB in the NFL that loses 20% completion percentage to these factors?
Its like you are saying a .150 hitter is only a .150 hitter because of who hits behind him.

Yeah he ended up 2/8 but in reality he threw 6/8 great passes

Great? Really?

only 2of which were actually caught by his receivers. I saw passes bounce of shoulders, chests, helmets, hands etc. That's no excuse for the receiver...not a passer issue. If he's constantly underthrowing, overthrowing or missing wildly and throwing picks in traffic, that's inaccuracy. That's not what Tebow does.

That is exactly what he does.

How can you argue the effect of having the 32nd worse receiving core in the league in dropped passes?

Add back all of the drops and he still has the worst completion percentage.
Its like blaming Joan Rivers looks solely on her left eye.

I mean who are Tebow's receivers? Were they burning up the field before Tebow got there?

You do realize he had a really good one who asked to be traded because Tebow couldnt get him the ball, right?

What I think happened against Pittsburg that helped is Erick Decker, one of the worst offenders in dropped passes for Denver, got hurt while dropping yet another good pass,

If you call THAT a good pass and a drop, then I am an accurate NFL Qb.

and opened up the position for another receiver to step up. Granted he was hurt this time, but this guy dropped a lot of good passes this year for Denver.

And who was that? Who is this guy that stepped up and got Tebow all the way to almost 50%?

As I said, if you are going to go around on the Tebow train, you should focus on his strengths instead of arguing that his blatant deficiency is a mirage.

 

[Ring 6]

Like I said, I understand that. But again not only does it not show you what the QB sees, but you are still talking about 1 pass out of 21.

Last time I checked there aren't too many QB's that go perfect every Sunday let alone with a mediocre receiving core. It's not like even Brees or Rodgers or Brady don't miss every game.

Its not out of 21, because all of his passes are not there. What about the one to the end zone that should have been picked off? Was that a good pass?

 

[mgcolby]

Not specifically aimed at you, but to your argument:

I love how this part of the Anti-Tebow argument has changed. Before it was how he could only hit passes to players who were wide open, and so the way to shut him down was to play strong man against the Broncos, because NFL man results in much tighter coverage.

Now that Tebow's shown that trying that is a good way to get smoked like salmon, we're suddenly seeing the transition to "but... cover 2!".

You want to beat Tebow the young QB? Blitz him from his left, keep him in the pocket, and force him to throw under pressure from the pocket all day long. Zone or man doesn't matter. He's not advance enough to beat this consistently. Most first and second year QBs aren't.

Let him get outside the pressure, especially to his left, and he's going to beat you. Zone or man doesn't matter. At that point, he'll kill you running or throwing.


P.S. Jay and I disagree on this. He doesn't think Tebow's got the arm to beat that zone. I think that, if he's free, he'll beat it or get you with the run. Time's going to tell on this one.

Thanks for not directing that at me, because I never made that argument. I have always thought he can hit the deep ball. Its the intermediary throws where his accuracy hurts him. Deep balls are typically lower percentage throws any how. But that 15-25 yard realm is where his accuracy issues show up. To his credit he was better yesterday.

I think he has the arm strength in general to beat the zone, but his release negates some of his natural arm strength and will allow DB's a better jump on the ball. He beat us in zone several times over the middle mostly because our LB's were terrible in there field awareness. One Fletcher play comes to mind where a RB sat about 5 yards to his left and it looked as if Fletcher had no idea he was there. That is not an attempt to knock Tebow, but Fletcher.

 

[Ring 6]

That should read "Man 0" not "Man" which is typically Man 1. And that is not typical in the NFL. Hell the Jets rarely run "true man" and as far as I can tell from watching a lot of football that is more than every other team in the league. The Jets when they blitz leave Revis in Man with a safety rolled to the other side.

I don't see how I moved the goal posts. I feel like I stayed well within what we were discussing.

Moving the goalposts is code for you have a good argument that he cannot refute so he will pretend its a different argument, and focus on the fact that you changed the argument (and therefore he won't talk about it any more) instead of the actual argument.
He will now spend a number of posts criticizing you for moving the goal posts, telling you that you are better than that, ignoring the point, and ultimately saying he just won't talk to you if you do that.
Its old hat with him.

 

[PatriotSeven]

I don't know what you are looking at. First there are 14 passes that count (2 were penalties) so you couldnt see what you say you did.
How could you possible see drops? The only thing close to a drop was Decker and he had to fully extend and get run into a hit.
There were ZERO thrown out of bounds ON PURPOSE. One took the WR out of bounds in the end zone and was a Td if on line.
There are 6 incompletions not on the tape. The first sideline throw bounced, the one in the endzone was a TD if a good throw, the one before should have been picked, the 3rd and 8 was wildly missed.
Even many of the completions were not accurate, such as the one to Fells with noone near him where he had to fall down to catch it.


You honestly mean to sit there and tell me if it's an incomplete pass, that it means it's an inaccurate or bad throw? lol.

-Decker's was a drop and it was also a good pass in zone coverage over the middle. The guy caught it and ball came out because he decided to use it as cushion when he hit the ground after he got hit in the knee.
-Rosario's catch could be argued either way but I can assure as a Panther fan I KNOW Rosario and he's not exactly your vertical threat. He's not the best route runner or the fastest receiver on the field and he wasn't as a Panther either.
-The throw in the endzone is a perfect ball for a touchdown in his receivers stomach that gets batted down.
-The one prior to that is a good placed ball high where his receiver doesn't come down with it with 2 other defenders getting their hands in to bat it down. It was hardly inaccurate.

That's 4 right there off the top of my head.

And there were at least 2 passes thrown out of bounds on purpose. I remember one in particular where he rolls to the left, and he throws a pass at his receivers feet and out of bounds, but it's an obvious throw away. So is his first pass when the defender is clearly coming in front of his frozen receiver who's just standing there waiting. Tebow sees him. Why would you NOT throw the ball behind the receiver in that situation? Isn't that actually what QB's are taught to do? Lead their receivers?

I gave you my explanation, now what I asked you is how many of his 21 passes are truly inaccurate for you to make that claim?

 

[Deus Irae]

Like I said, I understand that. But again not only does it not show you what the QB sees, but you are still talking about 1 pass out of 21.

If Tebow saw anything that looked like a covered player, he needs his eyes checked. And I agree that it's just one pass out of 21. I'm just trying to be objective about the passes, since they are what is in question with this line of the discussion.

Last time I checked there aren't too many QB's that go perfect every Sunday let alone with a mediocre receiving core. It's not like even Brees or Rodgers or Brady don't miss every game.

I agree, which is why I made the comment about Brady usually making more bad throws than Tebow did in that game (although that might have been in another thread). An incomplete pass is not always a bad pass, even though a lot of people act as if it is.

 

[Deus Irae]

Thanks for not directing that at me, because I never made that argument. I have always thought he can hit the deep ball. Its the intermediary throws where his accuracy hurts him. Deep balls are typically lower percentage throws any how. But that 15-25 yard realm is where his accuracy issues show up. To his credit he was better yesterday.

I think he has the arm strength in general to beat the zone, but his release negates some of his natural arm strength and will allow DB's a better jump on the ball. He beat us in zone several times over the middle mostly because our LB's were terrible in there field awareness. One Fletcher play comes to mind where a RB sat about 5 yards to his left and it looked as if Fletcher had no idea he was there. That is not an attempt to knock Tebow, but Fletcher.

I don't think you've got anything here that I'd really disagree with, other than to, maybe (haven't tried breaking it down) haggling over exactly which distances I'd say are Tebow's weakness or break down the LB terrible/Tebow good percentages. Hell, I'd add that he's weak on quick hitters because his windup slows things down just a hair and he's not found a way, at least to this point, to compensate for that on the NFL level.

 

[Ring 6]

-Decker's was a drop and it was also a good pass in zone coverage over the middle. The guy caught it and ball came out because he decided to use it as cushion when he hit the ground.
-Rosario's catch could be argued either way but I can assure as a Panther fan I KNOW Rosario and he's not exactly your vertical threat. He's not the best route runner or the fastest receiver on the field and he wasn't as a Panther either.
-The throw in the endzone is a perfect ball for a touchdown in his receivers stomach that gets batted down.
-The one prior to that is a good placed ball high where his receiver doesn't come down with it with 2 other defenders getting their hands in to bat it down. It was hardly inaccurate.

That's 4 right there off the top of my head.

And there were at least 2 passers thrown out of bounds on purpose. I remember one in particular where he rolls to the left, and he throws a pass at his receivers feet and out of bounds, but it's an obvious throw away. So is his first pass when the defender is clearly coming in front of his frozen receiver who's just standing there waiting. Tebow sees him. Why would you NOT throw the ball behind the receiver in that situation? Isn't that actually what QB's are taught to do? Lead their receivers?

I gave you my explanation, now what I asked you is how many of his 21 passes are truly inaccurate for you to make that claim?

If you want to think that making a receiver extend to the max and be led into a defender is a good throw, then anything is a good throw.
Why do you need to make an excuse about Rosario?
The almost picked pass was bad. The one out of bounds in the end zone was bad. The first pass was bad. The 3rd down and 8 was bad....
I listed them all.
It was a performance that deserved 50% completions.

Clearly you are just not going to listen to anyone who does not feel Tebow is Brady, so there is no point going further.
We will end with me feeling his statistics are representative of his play, just like everyone else, and you apparently believing he plays under different circumstances and 20% of his passes fall incomplete that other QBs complete and it has nothing to do with how he throws the ball.
Good luck to you.

 

[mgcolby]

Trying to claim man coverages aren't traditional NFL coverages is either lying or moving the goalposts. I've read enough of your stuff that I don't believe you to be a liar. The other option therefore....

Traditionally teams don't play true Man 0 there is nothing wrong with that statement. You can switch the word traditionally with typically....or very often. You rarely if ever see 11 guys on the defense within 5 yards of the LOS in the NFL. And you hardly ever see true Man 0, usually Man 1 is played. Man with a high safety. If you don't, especially in this NFL you are commiting suicide...the Steelers will testify.

 

[Deus Irae]

Why is it absurd ? His QBR and comp % is the worst in the NFL, even his running stats are not the best compared to Cam, vick. Why is it absurd?
You saying he brings an added dimension ?
Because he's not rated well at all as a QB. I mean your defending a guy that has worst stats than sanchez. I want to know why.
I think I could plug Matt Ryan into DEN and get better QB play. Probably more wins.

It's absurd because you're trying to use numbers when the games have made his contributions obvious. Hell, it was on the television seemingly every day for almost 2 months.

Also, your use of stats is ignoring the impact his running has on the game. Vick used to get hosed that same way, too. With Vick's numbers, his getting his teams to the playoffs made no sense, yet he got them there 3 times in 4 'full' years.

Also, since you're pointing to stats....

To look at something that would obviously be affected by Tebow, but where the Tebow factor cannot be tangibly weighed in, even including the 3 Tebow-led blowouts (Lions/Patriots/Bills) where the opponents put up 40+ against the Broncos, the Broncos went from allowing 28 ppg to allowing 22.75 ppg. That's a huge improvement, and a lot of that is because of the symbiosis with the offense. The offense, again including those blowout losses, only dipped from 21 to 19.4 ppg. Just to finish this line, if you take the blowout losses out, you get a team that is scoring 20.6 ppg (Just about the same as w/Orton) and allowing 16.3 ppg. That's one hell of an impact on the team in the games that were kept in control. And before you say "but why take those games out?", note that they are the 3 games where Denver gave up 3 turnovers with Tebow at the helm, and protecting the ball and running it have been hallmarks of the Tebow-led team.

How much of all that number trail is directly, or even indirectly, tied to Tebow is debatable, but ultimately unknowable. He's clearly having a significant impact, though. The team without him in the past 2 seasons is 4-14, and is 9-6 with him.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Its not out of 21, because all of his passes are not there. What about the one to the end zone that should have been picked off? Was that a good pass?

Ok so is Tebow inaccurate or does he make a couple of bad passes or bad decisions out of 21? Because there's a big difference to me between that. And most people are saying he's inaccurate.

I don't see inaccuracy. I see over-conservative, but generally good decision making. I see a few mis-reads. And I see the occasional bad spiral that wobbles when he throws.

But from watching Tebow play just about every game I have seen more good passes that were either dropped or catchable as well as thrown away balls than Tebow actually missing his receivers due to passing accuracy issues.

I don't see the kid having an accuracy issue at all. I fully expect his completion % to improve when his receiving squad, tight-ends(which are non-existent), and overall pass offense improves this coming off-season as well as him getting more accustomed to reading NFL defenses. When the Broncos figure out how to have a more effective offensive style that incorporates his rushing ability and gives him an easy dump-off option, I expect to see a big improvement in his completion %. Unlike guys like Cam Newton who has 3 short dump-offs at any time(2 tight ends and a running back, and sometimes even a wide receiver), Tebow doesn't have that. He doesn't have those easy short pass options. He also doesn't have a guy like Smith, Gronk, Megatron, etc who really go up and get that ball. But his accuracy is actually fine and was fine in college too. His completion % was fine in college as well when he did have those options.

What hurts his completion % is he takes too long to throw the ball but it's actually the same thing that helps him not throw pics as a dual pass/rushers. If you will notice most scramblers and dual pass/rushers have an issue where they pass on the run. If you watch Tebow...he sometimes stops and resets in the middle of a scramble before he throws. Sometimes this takes too much time, slows him down, and is forced to throw away the ball. But this same thing is what actually helps him throw a more accurate pass and avoid the pick when he does pull the trigger. Throwing on the run, unless it's an easy lob, or while scrambling, or getting hit is actually one of the things that leads to interceptions for guys like Vick, Newton, and Ben. It's what haunts the dual pass/rush QB.

If anything he's probably setting an example for how you SHOULD pass if you are a dual pass/rush QB. Don't ignore the proper footwork needed when passing. Does that mean Tebow will ever be as accurate and precise as a pure pocket passer? I highly doubt it. Because those guys practice that non-stop and practice getting the ball out as quickly as possible, whereas these guys practice extending the play.

 

[ATippett56]

Traditionally teams don't play true Man 0 there is nothing wrong with that statement. You can switch the word traditionally with typically....or very often. You rarely if ever see 11 guys on the defense within 5 yards of the LOS in the NFL. And you hardly ever see true Man 0, usually Man 1 is played. Man with a high safety.

Even if the New England Patriots defense play cover 1, the New England Patriots defense may have the worst starting free safety in the NFL today.

 

[Deus Irae]

Traditionally teams don't play true Man 0 there is nothing wrong with that statement. You can switch the word traditionally with typically....or very often. You rarely if ever see 11 guys on the defense within 5 yards of the LOS in the NFL. And you hardly ever see true Man 0, usually Man 1 is played. Man with a high safety. If you don't, especially in this NFL you are commiting suicide...the Steelers will testify.

1.) You changed your 'man' description

2.) Tebow was still beating tight man coverage, which is what so many said he couldn't do.

This really isn't worth a long back-and-forth. Tebow beat man coverage. Arguing about what a safety would do in a Patriots game will just get us discussing the merits of Sergio Brown, et al.

 

[JackBauer]

Deus, I gotta ask. Are you related to Tim Tebow?

 

[mgcolby]

1.) You changed your 'man' description

2.) Tebow was still beating tight man coverage, which is what so many said he couldn't do.

This really isn't worth a long back-and-forth. Tebow beat man coverage. Arguing about what a safety would do in a Patriots game will just get us discussing the merits of Sergio Brown, et al.

Yes it was a typo in the orginal post it should have read Man 0, not just man.

I think I have said all I can and want to on this subject anyhow.

Do you know where to find this elusive offensive efficiency stat?

 

[mgcolby]

Even if the New England Patriots defense play cover 1, the New England Patriots defense may have the worst starting free safety in the NFL today.

That maybe true...but...do you know who is starting at FS this week? I don't. I wouldn't be shocked if its McCourtey and that might be a good thing. He can keep everything in front of him and use his speed to roam the middle and make plays.

 

[ATippett56]

That maybe true...but...do you know who is starting at FS this week? I don't. I wouldn't be shocked if its McCourtey and that might be a good thing. He can keep everything in front of him and use his speed to roam the middle and make plays.

McCourty has been lost all season and is not a starting free safety in the NFL.

The New England Patriots need to seriously spend money in unrestricted free agency prior to the 2012 NFL Draft to upgrade the defensive secondary.