Broncos/Patriots matchup

[catsigater]

Not saying we're going to win,but these broncos fans think that they owned us until they shot themselves in the foot. Yeah, the patriots defense had nothing to do with forcong all those turnovers. They are less afraid of the pats than they were of the steelers...

I'm not, especially in Foxboro.

And I wouldn't say we "owned" the Pats until the turnovers, either.

Without the TOs, my guess is Pats win by 10-12 pts last time.

I will say this, the Pats are still 31st in total defense, 31st in passing defense, 17th in rushing defense and 15th in scoring defense.

Broncos play a perfect game, Pats win by 10. Broncos play a perfect game and win the T/O battle, we've got a chance.

But hey, we're playing with house money at this point anyway, so WTH.

 

[pherein]

I normally love your stuff, but you're being way too hard on the Broncos.

Well, I probably am. I just don't subscribe to the "you have to take them seriously" or "any given sunday" thinking. No matter what is posted on any board your boys will play how they are going to against DEN.

Im just trying to look at them realistically as an objective observer. Stripping away the Tebow hype or the great story, and comparing them on strength of opponent.

Looking at the wildcard week we can see what the offenses did to opposing defenses, especially at home.
#2 NO(H) offense vs #23 DET defense = 45 to 28
#9 NY(H) offense vs #18 ATL defense = 24 to 2
#10 HOU(H) offense vs #9 CIN defense = 31 to 10
#25 DEN(H) offense vs #1 PITT defense = 29 to 23

DEN vs PITT game is the only one that doesn't make sense. Its probably because of a horrible defensive game plan, and the loss of 3 DL early in the game. But I don't see DEN beating PITT more than 2-3 times-out of 10 games in a row, which is what I try to look at when 2 teams play. So it was and unusual occurrence and not the norm. How long is this luck going to hold out.

because now they play..

#3 NE(H) offense vs #24 DEN defense = ?
That looks very similar to to our game.

NE OL #2 Run Blocking #8 Pass Protection
vs
DEN DL #9 Run Blocking #5 Pass Protection

DEN OL #11 Run Blocking #29 Pass Protection
vs
NE DL #29 Run Blocking #19 Pass Protection

TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS
NE is #4 and #1 last year ( this tells me your a machine, well coached )
DEN is #24 and #26 last year ( this screams, Im winging it, hope I have a good game)
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

I mean, their is just no way around it DEN offense is very poor, and the QB is #28 in the NFL with 46.5% completions (worst in the NFL ) and a QBR of 72.6.
2011 NFL Player Passing Stats - National Football League - ESPN
The reason they run so well is because they have to. They ran 120 more times than we did and we still have a better Y/A, and more TD's. It seems to me that the DEN DL is the only thing keeping them in games, and against a good NE OL that advantage no longer exist. Then you add

NE #3 offense and the #15 to #31 defense ( depending on what stats you love)
2011 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com
or
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Yards per Game on TeamRankings.com
Superiour OL, Brady,Gronk, Welker, Hernandez, Branch, Ridley, woodhead, GE, etc..

vs
DEN #25 offense and #22 to #25 defense
Below average OL, Tebow,Royal,Fells, Thomas(because decker is out), McGahee.

I think if this team had any other name and a faceless QB with those stats, this team would not even concern anyone. The only things I don't like is NE defensive opponents 3rd down conversion % where your #28th at 43.07%, and opponents RZ Scoring % where your #23 at 55.74%, thats horrible.
But if you played DEN 10 times I can't really see them beating you more than 1-2 times.

.. am I being to hard on them?



Oh here are some break downs everyone can have fun with before the game this week.

2011 Divisional Playoffs NFL Games: Broncos Patriots

2011 Divisional Playoffs NFL Games: Broncos Patriots


New England Patriots: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com

Denver Broncos: Results, Picks, Power Rankings, Odds & Stats on TeamRankings.com

 

[Deus Irae]

..... am I being to hard on them?...

Yes, and by quite a bit. The Denver Tebows are 8-4. Just to extrapolate that out, that makes them the equivalent of 11-5. We're not talking about last year's Seahawks.

I don't know why you think the Den/Pit game doesn't make sense, either. Denver was a better team than they'd shown at the end of the season, and Roethlisberger was gimpy and had shown the effects of that in his previous game. Toss in Clark having to miss the game and the weak corners of the Steelers, and I'm not seeing the level of surprise you are.

Also, and as I've talked about elsewhere, the Broncos were pummeling the Patriots defense until Fox chose not to go for it on 4th down and McGahee got injured soon afterwards (His replacement fumbled while he was recovering).

Do I think the Patriots should be the favorites? Absolutely.
Do I think the Patriots can lose the game? Absolutely.
Do I think this game will likely be all about Brady, just as every Patriots game, save one, has been since 2009? Absolutely.

 

[BradyManny]

Do I think the Patriots should be the favorites? Absolutely.
Do I think the Patriots can lose the game? Absolutely.
Do I think this game will likely be all about Brady, just as every Patriots game, save one, has been since 2009? Absolutely.

This. Very much this.

This team - as the Packers or Saints would - will go as far as their QB takes them. The only caveat I make is that if the Patriots were to get into a SB matchup with one of those two teams, then I think a huge onus would land on Belichick at finding a way to slow down those teams prolific attacks. Somehow.

 

[pherein]

Says the team that beat up on the Lions. Come on now, we both now the Lions are pretenders and not mature enough yet to get anywhere in the Postseason. And if the Saints want to get to the Bowl again, well you have to go through the Packers. but the Pack proved they are vulnerable, they lost to the freaking Chiefs!!

I would never underestimate Tebow or the Broncos or any team left in the playoffs. They did 'decleat' Pittsburgh. The Pats just need to take care of business and play their own brand of football - high power offense from the get go! And force the Broncs to catch up. If they allow the Broncs to keep it close then they become a highly dangerous team with Tebow able to make plays on the ground or through the air.

questionable calls aside, where we probably ended on the better side of the stick, lol, :rocker:
Yeah, they would have fouled their way out of the postseason anyway. I know, they lost to the chiefs and we lost to the Rams, wonder whats worse. But I think it did show they might have a problem with their short game, sense Jenkins was out. If we make it that far.

I agree, every team needs to play their best ball right now, and play to their strengths that got them their in the 1st place. Playing out of character or trying something new might make you lose. You can pound them with that high octane offense and keep DEN off the field. Plus you have the 12th man. Their run game will be useless if they have to play catch up. I think this is the best team you could have gotten for success though. My fear with you guys getting PITT was that one of your guys might be injured during the game, but I think the chances of that happening have dropped significantly vs DEN. Should be fun to watch

 

[patsinthesnow]

CBS: Steelers/Broncos AFC Wild Card playoff game (41.9 million viewers, 14.8 rating among adults 18-49)

Tim Tebow's impact on the NFL has been unbelievable, an NFL Wildcard game drawing that many views, 42 million people watching an NFL Wildcard game!

In contrast, game 7 of the 2011 World Series drew 25 million views and game 6 of the 2011NBA finals had a 13.3 rating (don't know how many views that is, around 30 million i guess).

With the game Saturday on at primetime at 8 oclock, will it reach 50 million views?

 

[pherein]

Yes, and by quite a bit. The Denver Tebows are 8-4. Just to extrapolate that out, that makes them the equivalent of 11-5. We're not talking about last year's Seahawks.

I don't know why you think the Den/Pit game doesn't make sense, either. Denver was a better team than they'd shown at the end of the season, and Roethlisberger was gimpy and had shown the effects of that in his previous game. Toss in Clark having to miss the game and the weak corners of the Steelers, and I'm not seeing the level of surprise you are.

Also, and as I've talked about elsewhere, the Broncos were pummeling the Patriots defense until Fox chose not to go for it on 4th down and McGahee got injured soon afterwards (His replacement fumbled while he was recovering).

Actually, now that you mention it, I think they are very similar to the Seahawks who made it to the wildcard with very similar stat #'s, both had weak schedules, both played teams that had a lot of injuries and passed the 1st round. Except Seahawks had a better passing QB, and better WR/TE.

What do you think DEN win lost record would be if they played NE 16 times this season?

Oh, I just though PITT had better depth ,and defensive play calling than what I saw. That was not a #1 defense. Hmm I forgot about the McGahee injury.

 

[Kontradiction]

The muffed punt was a bonehead play but the Ball fumble was a sweet play by Brace to discard his blocker and poke the ball out before the runner was down. Not sure how you can consider that "unforced".

I don't. I just forgot to mention it. But the fact still stands that half of their turnovers were unforced. Eliminate those and we could be looking at a closer score. Again, I don't expect Denver to make the same mistakes this Saturday. It would be great if they did, but I don't expect it.

 

[Deus Irae]

Actually, now that you mention it, I think they are very similar to the Seahawks who made it to the wildcard with very similar stat #'s, both had weak schedules, both played teams that had a lot of injuries and passed the 1st round. Except Seahawks had a better passing QB, and better WR/TE.

Again, the Tebows are at 8-4, while that Seahawks team went 7-9 in the regular season. They are pretty much nothing alike. When Tebow & company protect the ball, they win. They haven't lost a single game where they played even or better with the turnovers. Such was not the case with the Seahawks. Furthermore, the Seahawks were built around an aged QB who's movement ability was very limited, while the Broncos are built around a QB who's pretty much just the opposite.

What do you think DEN win lost record would be if they played NE 16 times this season?

I stopped worrying about this sort of question after the 2007 Patriots lost to a team they'd probably beat 95 times out of 100. That taught a lot of Patriots fans that it only takes one off game.

Oh, I just though PITT had better depth ,and defensive play calling than what I saw. That was not a #1 defense. Hmm I forgot about the McGahee injury.

1.) Where's the Pittsburgh depth?

2.) That's a good team, but it's not the dominant defense it was a couple of years ago. The age is getting to them:

Hampton - 34
Keisel - 33
Farrior - 37
Harrison - 33
Taylor - 31
Clark - 32

 

[Uncle Rico]

I don't expect the Broncos to turn the ball over so much again, but I also don't expect them to build such a big lead early. To me those two things kind of cancel each other out as things that happened a few weeks ago and won't likely happen again.

 

[Urgent]

This is an excellent match-up for the Patriots.

Defense - New England's obvious glaring weakness is pass defense. They are facing a young QB, but one they've faced. They are facing an inaccurate passer with a slower delivery. They are facing a team that has lost its complementary receiver and will be more reliant upon their primary. They are facing a team without an elite tight end. Denver's weaknesses negate New England's biggest weaknesses.

Going through Tebow, Flacco/Yates is about as attractive a road as New England could hope for.

Now of course Tyler Palko, Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick and a number of other lesser passers have put up big numbers against the New England defense, but the Denver passing offense is not as threatening as Pittsburgh's.

Denver's running attack has been explosive, but they do put the ball on the ground. New England thrives on that.

Further, they have now tried a couple different approaches against the Bronco's, and obviously found some things that work. They need to do a much better job on the edges. Ninkovich whiffed on Tebow's legs, and it looked like McCourty was not so eager to take a big blow in his first game back. A less aggressive outside rush, setting the DL back a yard off the line, widening the DL alignment -- all adjustments New England made last month that were effective.

McCourty and Arrington have struggled with big receivers. In years' past, Belichick has done a great job taking one guy away. If they can take Demaryius out with doubles, offer some confusing coverage, they can survive this passing attack.

Offense
No teams are designed to stop the double TE receiving option New England offers. If Von Miller is worried about dropping into coverage, or getting slammed by a much bigger Gronk, it really weakens their rush.

The only real key here is for New England to figure out why they couldn't get a first quarter first down in December. If they can score twice in the first quarter, they really start to take away the option and the running game, and start keying on those midrange wobblers. Wow would a 15-yard completion to Branch or Ocho Cinco in the first quarter help.

But even if they don't, the results of the past month should give the team lots of confidence even if they do fall behind early.

This game is the big reward for risking Brady's shoulder in week 17.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I don't. I just forgot to mention it. But the fact still stands that half of their turnovers were unforced. Eliminate those and we could be looking at a closer score. Again, I don't expect Denver to make the same mistakes this Saturday. It would be great if they did, but I don't expect it.

They had 3 fumbles - how is it that "half" of those were unforced? and u are just assuming that they are going to eliminate those and still gash us for 235 yards on the ground. Having chung, branch and spikes is a major addition this time around.

The lions were supposed to eliminate the penalties against the saints and clean up their game the second time around and they lost this time by a wider score.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Will JMD be a team captain on Saturday?

 

[Metaphors]

I don't. I just forgot to mention it. But the fact still stands that half of their turnovers were unforced. Eliminate those and we could be looking at a closer score. Again, I don't expect Denver to make the same mistakes this Saturday. It would be great if they did, but I don't expect it.

Broncos had 3 turnovers. Tebow fumble forced by Anderson. Ball fumble forced by Brace. Muffed punt (unforced). As the unforced turnover led directly to a FG at the end of the half, we know precisely how much of a difference it made. So unless I'm missing a turnover or you are including something unique as a "turnover", then eliminating unforced errors would have made the game 3 points closer. While those 3 points may have changed the course of the 2nd half, I kinda doubt it.

Seems odd to assume that Denver will clean up their performance but the Pats (hardly a perfect game in Denver) won't. Actually, while we are changing history, if the officials called the Hernandez TD catch accurately the Pats would have gained 4 additional points. I don't expect the refs to make the same mistake this Saturday.

 

[mgcolby]

Rewatching the Denver game with gamepass (which now includes the All 22 look presnap and the endzone cam)....just finished watching the first quarter....

Ninkovinch and Fletcher were terrible. Nink got sucked in twice, allowing the back to bounce outside. And in both cases the CB (McCourtey and Arrington) chased their guy inside allowing for big gains on the outside.

Fletcher continually got killed inside and was easily sealed off, not filling his run fits at all. And was simply terrible in the passing game. Poor tackling by the secondary was every where.

On the 2nd running TD, the Denver line executed perfectly and Tracy White made it easy for the pulling guard by picking a side.

Tebow had a long keeper on a 3rd and 9 against our dime package and White got eaten up by Beadles.

Overall everything in the 1st quarter was poor execution. Guys were put in the right spot and simply did not execute.

Will update the second quarter later.



2nd Quarter:

First drive they move Brace to NT. The front was Wilfork/Brace/Deaderick, Fletcher beats his guy and hits the ball carrier low, Brace sheds his blocker and knocks the ball out.

2nd drive the Pats go Dime with a "two" man front, Anderson plays with his hand down as a 3rd down linemen, but is really the OLB. The first play is a big gain off left and again White gets taken out of the play. 2nd play same defense, Anderson plays the option perfect, attacks Tebow and knocks the ball away. No gimme about it.

3rd drive the Pats go back to 3-4 with a big front of Elllis/Wilfork/Deaderick with Anderson standing up at OLB. First two plays Tebow is innacurate on his throws and they fall incomplete. 3rd play they run out of the gun and gain 8 tackle made by Mayo and Nink. 3 and out.

Then after a 3 and out by the Pats where Brady overthrew a wide open Hernandez for what would have been a TD. They punt and then the "gift" occurs which gives us 3 points.

The Pats defense completely outplayed the Broncos offense in the 2nd quarter and the two fumbles were anything but gifts. They were forced by the Pats D and they led to 10 points. Tack on another 3 for a gift muffed punt and the Pats score 13 points off of turnovers. Should have been 17, but BB didn't challenge the Hernandez catch that was ruled incomplete.

3rd quarter to follow...

They only have 1 drive in the 3rd quarter. The Pats offense only scores 7 points on two possesions but have about 9 minutes TOP.

Pats D comes out 3-4 Wilfork/Love/Deaderick Anderson/Nink on the outside.

1st Drive: 1st two plays again Fletcher does not fill his gap and they have two +5 yard runs...on the second play Wilfork bull rushed himself out of the play. Tebow completes a pass for a first down. Then runs for 8 on 2nd down after coverage down field makes him pull up and run. The defense stiffens and on a 3rd and 8 he drops back and is sacked. The sack is a product of great coverage in the secondary allowing multiple defenders to get in the backfield.

4th Quarter:

1st drive starts with 36 seconds left in the 3rd quarter: Pats come out in the 4-3 with White at ILB in place of Fletcher and Moore at end replacing Anderson. 1st play 9 yard run brought back for holding.

The replay of 1st down the Pats destroy the Broncos line and drop ball 2 yards behind the LOS.

2nd and 14 the Pats line up with the same personnel in the 3-4 with Moore playing in place of Anderson with his hand down as the OLB. Deaderick blows up his blocker, strips Tebow of the ball and Tebow manages to pick up the ball in the back of the end zone and throw it away.

3rd and 14 the Pats come out in Nickel with a 3 man front Warren/Wilfork/Anderson.
Tebow runs a QB draw for 9 yards. Punt.

2nd Drive:

Pats come out in 4-2 Nickel front of Moore/Wilfork/Love/Anderson.Tebow completes a come back for 7 yards to DT.

2nd and 3: Tebow hits DT for 15 yards.

1st and 10: 4-2 nickel FS 15 yards deep: Tebow overthrows DT.

2nd and 10: Coverage sack by Anderson for an 8 yard loss.

3rd and 18: Dime with a three man front: No pressure on Tebow and completes a long ball to DT for 38 yards on a blown coverage by McCourtey.

1st and 10: Tebow completes a nice dump off to Ball while scrambling under pressure that gets them to the 2 yard line.

1st and goal from the 2 Tebow in gun out of an empty backfield, powers his way in for the score.

34-23 Pats.

Pats score on the next drive and the Pats play prevent on the last drive.

 

[pherein]

Deus Irae;2888323]Again, the Tebows are at 8-4, while that Seahawks team went 7-9 in the regular season. They are pretty much nothing alike. When Tebow & company protect the ball, they win. They haven't lost a single game where they played even or better with the turnovers. Such was not the case with the Seahawks. Furthermore, the Seahawks were built around an aged QB who's movement ability was very limited, while the Broncos are built around a QB who's pretty much just the opposite.

Hahaha, yeah, I know they are not exactly the same, they also wear different uniforms,lol.

I stopped worrying about this sort of question after the 2007 Patriots lost to a team they'd probably beat 95 times out of 100. That taught a lot of Patriots fans that it only takes one off game.

aawww you can't be still shell shocked by that, it was a fluke.

1.) Where's the Pittsburgh depth?

2.) That's a good team, but it's not the dominant defense it was a couple of years ago. The age is getting to them:

Hampton - 34
Keisel - 33
Farrior - 37
Harrison - 33
Taylor - 31
Clark - 32

1. Well PITT develops from within with drafts, unlike a lot of NFL teams. I thought they had better guys in their 2nd string or rotation. Some of our 2nd string DL have replaced the 1st string or are playing better, like Cam Jordan, King, and Jr Galette.

2. What do you have against old people Hmm maybe they should change their name to the AARP swags or soured drapes ...instead of the steel curtain

She agrees with you Deus, she sees Broncos beating NE and being a threat, not sure thats a good thing,lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxHU-f1qY2Y

 

[mrscruff]

Nantz and Simms get the call.
Nantz & Simms on the call - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Good. Now Phil can tell me what a forward pass looks like.

 

[mgcolby]

Bottom line the Pats used multiple fronts through out the game. Tracy White, Fletcher and Nink and poor tackling in the secondary is what led to the early success. Nink, Fletcher and White had a piss poor game over all. They ran away from Mayo all game! Turnovers were not the only reason the Pats won the game. The defense forced two punts on the first two drives of the second half.

The Pats causing turnovers in the 2nd quarter helped the offense pad a big lead and the Pats offense kept the ball for most of the 3rd quarter putting up 7 on their second drive. Sandwiched in between the two possesions was a very nice defensive stand where they forced a punt in 5 plays.

Tebow made some plays down field, but the biggest came in the 4th quarter on 3rd and 18 where Deven was lost in space and allowed DT to run down the sideline by himself. And the other was the broken play dump off to Ball on the same drive that led to the 2 yard run in by Tebow. The only score of the 2nd half.

Every big play in the 4th quarter was more about the Pats lack of execution by one or two individuals on any given play, than it was about Denver out playing them. Nink not tackling Tebow when he had him in his grasp. White taking himself out of the play and doing the blocker's job for him. Fletcher just being simply terrible in the middle etc....

Spikes will blow up his blocker while simultaneously filling his run fit. Chung will help out with the secondary tackling and overall communication.

Unlike Denver who come in less than the same team, without Decker. The Pats come in to this game improved at ILB and Safety.

 

[DaBruinz]

Nantz and Simms get the call.
Nantz & Simms on the call - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Good. Now Phil can tell me what a forward pass looks like.

Is it me or are there really no GOOD announcing tandems anymore?? I've had to mute the games more this year than I have ever had to in the past. Simms has gone from a somewhat unbiased caller to a clear Pats hater. And Nantz can't get the players correct half the time..

And when Fouts/Eagle were the broadcast team, OMG, talk about HORRIBLE.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Im sorry but the Denver Bronco's are 8-8 for a reason.. Teblow played out of his mind today that won't happen 2 games in a row. If he comes in to new england and knocks off TFB and the 13-3 Pats.. i will castrate myself in the name of the lord.

There is less than a 10% chance Denver wins.. That 10% comes from NE beating themselves much like the Steelers did.

In all fairness they are not 8-8 with Tebow. They were 1-4 before Tebow started. This team is still underrated and shouldn't be. It seems they are just now at the point where they're finally coming together with their new QB. Went through the ups, downs, and then put together a very solid, all around, team effort on all sides of the ball. It's a good time for them to come together and get hot.

I don't expect a blowout like last game. Tebow was protecting the ball from fumbles a lot better against Pittsburgh than he did against the Pats.

However Pitsburgh was the 27th most inefficient offense in the league. I have been tracking them all season and they were the ONLY team with an inefficient offense and a winning record. Denver's offense, while not high powered, is not inefficient, let alone 13-3. I figured they would be exposed in the playoffs and they did. If it wasn't for the 3 game skid, it should have been a no brainer that Denver could beat Pitsburgh. They were very vulnerable because of Ben's inefficient QB play and turnovers. I guess I was one of the few people that were not surprised.

But for Denver, that won't be the case against the #2 most efficient defense, #2 special teams defense and #4 most efficient offense: New England Patriots.

However, prior to their 3 game skid, Denver was ranked 11th in offensive efficiency so they were no slouch either(which is why they won) and looks to be back to that same level now. If they play like they play this past Sunday, defenses aside(when are people going to realize how little a difference they make from one team to another?) they can score and they will if they don't turn over the ball.

Steeler's #1 D in yards doesn't mean a thing against a more efficient offense. Steeler's #1 D even in efficiency doesn't mean a thing against a more efficient offense.

Offensive efficiency and execution(not horsepower) ultimately wins most games. Luckily I believe the Pats to still hold that edge.

yards per point for the playoff teams in their latest game(lower the better):


#1 Green Bay - 11.6 Last game 12.2
#2 San Francisco - 13.1 Last game: 9.4
#4 New England - 13.4 Last game: 9.8
#8 Baltimore - 14.8 Last game: 14.5

Playoffs game results:
Cincinnati - 30.0 - Houston 11.0
Detroit - 14.7 - New Orleans 13.9
Pittsburgh - 17.4 - Denver 15.4
Atlanta 123.5 - Giants 18.4

The more efficient offense won every game, as is typically the case, regardless of defensive rankings.

I don't believe there has been a more inefficient offensive showing all season by a capable offense let alone a winning team worse than Atlanta versus the Giants. Carolina posted a rating of 90.0 versus Detroit in a 30-3 game and somehow Atlanta's offense managed to execute worse than that. Boggles the mind what happened to that team. It should also be noted that Giants put up a far below average(15.4) efficiency rating even though Atlanta played so inefficiently(which rarely happens). Giants may be the next ones to get exposed unless they just decided to stop scoring late in the game and were playing to run out the clock instead of points.

Sadly the Lions, faced one of the best teams in the early rounds and exited much too early. They were a better team than Giants. Pittsburgh's offense and a hobbled Ben honestly didn't really belong in the playoffs. As I had expected Mike Tomlin decided to stick with Ben which was a truly ******ed move. He was a big reason why Denver's D was so effective.