Assumptions (based on things I've read. May be wrong).
* 2019 cap was $27mil
* Brady 2019 cash to be paid was $15mil (based on reports saying he's now getting paid $23mil and that was a $8mil raise).
* Therefore 2019 dead cap is $12mil (since $15 + $12 = $27)
* New deal freed up $5.5mil in cap, which means his new cap hit is $27-$5.5 = $21.5
* (Big assumption here) New deals cannot affect pre-existing dead cap for that year.
If so, that means that the $21.5mil cap hit consists of the $12mil dead cap and a $9.5mil cap hit from the $23mil cash he's getting paid in 2019.
To pay out $23mil cash with a $9.5mil cap hit means a $2.75mil salary and $20.25mil signing bonus.
That bonus will cause a $6.75mil add-on hit in 2020 and 2021, meaning hits of $36.75mil and $38.75mil in those years. Yow!!
However, Field Yates is reporting that 2020 and 2021 are "void years", meaning there are no guaranteed dollars associated with them and NE could cut Brady and not pay him anything. If so, as I understand it that would mean their cap hit would only be $6.75mil in 2021 if he was cut just before that season or $13.5mil in 2020 if he was cut just before that season.
That was an excellent job QM, and I've got a feeling that when it all comes out over the next few weeks, you are going to find you had most of it right.
There are three factors that stand out to me in this. First getting another $5MM or so in cap relief gets us to a point where we finally have enough to manage whatever in-season additions that occur in an average season. The $13MM in project space is NOT likely to be used for some "impact" signing, but to allow us to comfortably add a few "Simon-like" moves if necessary. Then IF we have great luck with injuries and the space remains deep into the season, THEN it can be used to extend some players.
The second key factor that this extension SEEMS to have is the so called "year to year" function. This is brilliant imo, It essentially acknowledges the reality of Brady's year to year status as a current 42 year old. It protects the team if Brady actually hits a cliff or if he simply decides he's had enough. BTW- for example, if he DID decide to leave before the contract expires, the $6MM dead cap hit you described is just 3.2% of the current $188MM number. If the cap goes up as much as they think, that number will likely be closer to 2%. By any definition not a huge dead money hit. Hell we survived and thrived despite a bigger percentage dead cap hit on the Hernandez deal.
The last is how much Tom played the media with his "let's take a poll", "ask Mr. Kraft" comments. Clearly this is a complex deal that protects both sides and ensures Brady retire as a Patriot. You don't put something like this together over a few days. It is obvious this has been in the works for several weeks with both parties knowing it would get done.
I wonder if any in the media will get pissed at Tom for playing with them. I also wonder how many will create a narrative that Brady's comments were the impetus that spurred the contract to completion. Volin is a surety, but only if he sees someone else using it first
So I guess this "drama" is over. I wonder what the next one will be.
