Brady contract situation (Merged - UPDATED:Deal Done)

[SHOWTIME15]

According to Miguel, the Pats Cap is now at $13 million. It's good enough to bring in a player like Trent Williams and still have enough emergency money.

 

[DaBruinz]

Assumptions (based on things I've read. May be wrong).
* 2019 cap was $27mil
* Brady 2019 cash to be paid was $15mil (based on reports saying he's now getting paid $23mil and that was a $8mil raise).
* Therefore 2019 dead cap is $12mil (since $15 + $12 = $27)
* New deal freed up $5.5mil in cap, which means his new cap hit is $27-$5.5 = $21.5
* (Big assumption here) New deals cannot affect pre-existing dead cap for that year.

If so, that means that the $21.5mil cap hit consists of the $12mil dead cap and a $9.5mil cap hit from the $23mil cash he's getting paid in 2019.
To pay out $23mil cash with a $9.5mil cap hit means a $2.75mil salary and $20.25mil signing bonus.

That bonus will cause a $6.75mil add-on hit in 2020 and 2021, meaning hits of $36.75mil and $38.75mil in those years. Yow!!

However, Field Yates is reporting that 2020 and 2021 are "void years", meaning there are no guaranteed dollars associated with them and NE could cut Brady and not pay him anything. If so, as I understand it that would mean their cap hit would only be $6.75mil in 2021 if he was cut just before that season or $13.5mil in 2020 if he was cut just before that season.

Quantum - I believe you are double-dipping on the SB cap hits for 2020 and 2021. Why do I say this? Because the original report was that Brady's SALARY was going to be $23M in 2019, $30M in 2020, and $32M in 2021. We know now that the $23M is not SALARY, but actual CASH that Brady will get. And we both know that's a huge difference. We also know that Brady's cap hit this year dropped by $5.5M, as you pointed out and that the $6.75M is the signing bonus pro-ration.

I contend that the $30M and $32M numbers are Brady's CAP hit for those 2 years, not his salary. I contend that Brady's cash (salary and bonuses) will be $23.75 and $25.75 respectively. I believe this based on the erroneous reporting that the $23M was Brady's new "salary"..

 

[DaBruinz]

I don't get Currans point here. It was reported that Brady was fine with a shorter deal or even letting this one run out. If that is true then what possible issue would Brady have getting franchised ?

Similarly "Brady may not have done it" ? What would he have done ? Retired in preseason ?

Luuked - Curran's position was that the league offices were putting pressure on the Patriots to up Brady's compensation since Brady is still considered one of the best in the league and he wasn't being paid like it. It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but I could easily see Goodell being bent out of shape over it..

 

[XLIX]

And 30M and 32M in the other years. Unless it is one big fake contract.

Well, it's 2/3rds fake contract.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Assumptions (based on things I've read. May be wrong).
* 2019 cap was $27mil
* Brady 2019 cash to be paid was $15mil (based on reports saying he's now getting paid $23mil and that was a $8mil raise).
* Therefore 2019 dead cap is $12mil (since $15 + $12 = $27)
* New deal freed up $5.5mil in cap, which means his new cap hit is $27-$5.5 = $21.5
* (Big assumption here) New deals cannot affect pre-existing dead cap for that year.

If so, that means that the $21.5mil cap hit consists of the $12mil dead cap and a $9.5mil cap hit from the $23mil cash he's getting paid in 2019.
To pay out $23mil cash with a $9.5mil cap hit means a $2.75mil salary and $20.25mil signing bonus.

That bonus will cause a $6.75mil add-on hit in 2020 and 2021, meaning hits of $36.75mil and $38.75mil in those years. Yow!!

However, Field Yates is reporting that 2020 and 2021 are "void years", meaning there are no guaranteed dollars associated with them and NE could cut Brady and not pay him anything. If so, as I understand it that would mean their cap hit would only be $6.75mil in 2021 if he was cut just before that season or $13.5mil in 2020 if he was cut just before that season.

Nice post, but if the cap hit (if cut) is 13.5M in 2020, that’s a sizable dead cap amount to absorb. I mean, they certainly would be better off with that than coughing up a 37M hit should Brady decline significantly, but that isn’t a clean break either.

The contract and consequences of releasing Brady is centered around the salary cap impact, so a release is of significant consequence to the team, even if not to Robert Kraft’s checkbook.

 

[XLIX]

I don't get Currans point here. It was reported that Brady was fine with a shorter deal or even letting this one run out. If that is true then what possible issue would Brady have getting franchised ?

Similarly "Brady may not have done it" ? What would he have done ? Retired in preseason ?

A bunch of mediots were trying to stir the sh*t this past week by suggesting Brady shouldn't show up - and just might not show up - for the Pittsburgh game absent a new deal.

IMHO, that was one of the most moronic things I've ever heard, but now they get to save face by saying "well, now we'll never know....."

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Quantum - I believe you are double-dipping on the SB cap hits for 2020 and 2021. Why do I say this? Because the original report was that Brady's SALARY was going to be $23M in 2019, $30M in 2020, and $32M in 2021. We know now that the $23M is not SALARY, but actual CASH that Brady will get. And we both know that's a huge difference. We also know that Brady's cap hit this year dropped by $5.5M, as you pointed out and that the $6.75M is the signing bonus pro-ration.

I contend that the $30M and $32M numbers are Brady's CAP hit for those 2 years, not his salary. I contend that Brady's cash (salary and bonuses) will be $23.75 and $25.

You may be right, but the media usually doesn’t report it that way because with few exceptions, they don’t know how to calculate the cap hits. Mostly they just report the actual cash to be paid in each year and let someone else figure out the cap hits - or they will explicitly state their year-by-year numbers are cap hits if they do know it. Based on what I’m seeing so far, I have no reason to believe that this isn’t the typical situation where the 2020 and 2021 amounts are combinations of salary, roster bonuses, game day bonuses, and incentives.

If i’m right, I’m curious to see the detail in future years if any of that 30/32 million consists of NLTBE incentives (or what would appear to be that way currently but could change based on 2019 performance). That could lower the future cap hits.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Luuked - Curran's position was that the league offices were putting pressure on the Patriots to up Brady's compensation since Brady is still considered one of the best in the league and he wasn't being paid like it. It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but I could easily see Goodell being bent out of shape over it..

...or Goody wanted the NEP to ante up as because his deal is so cheap, it gives them a competitive advantage and hes losing sleep over it.

 

[XLIX]

Luuked - Curran's position was that the league offices were putting pressure on the Patriots to up Brady's compensation since Brady is still considered one of the best in the league and he wasn't being paid like it. It's a bit of a conspiracy theory, but I could easily see Goodell being bent out of shape over it..

That theory makes no sense. Why would Goodell be upset if Brady was underpaid..? If anything, that would help other owners keep the salaries of their mid-tier QB's down.

Besides, that would also actually be considered tampering. Considering the NFL just lost some money to another QB on that point, I doubt they want to rock that boat again so soon.

 

[Biffins]

I love how the Pats and Brady sat on disclosing the extension so they could have some fun watching the media (not to mention a few folks here) try to create an hysteria funnel.

As I said, “the sun will rise and the sun will set......”

Thanks for the laughs!

Brady got a 2 yr extension for $70m. NOONE on this thread predicted that. I only said that Brady will demand close to market rate and will take a discount at 25-30m per year. I was afraid Kraft/BB will hesitate but am glad they didnt. Others on this forum laughed that anyone in NFL will pay Brady that let alone us who should get away with less. And yet others thought it was lunacy to be offering that amount to a 45 year old.

In actual fact Brady got joint highest ever amount 35m per year for 2 years for his extension. He was just made joint highest paid QB in the league. Brady demanded top dollar like I thought and Kraft paid. That’s the story. This is not a contract that BB has historically done.

 

[Biffins]

It wasn’t. Thanks for reporting your guesses as a source.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Anybody who has a prob with the value proposition really needs a checkup from the neckup.

I look forward to the contract deets (i.e., how much up front, how long to pay it all off, and what they're doing when he's 45, to lock him down long-term )

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here is what I believe happened:

All sides wanted this story out of the media glare. This contract is nothing more than a 1 year, $23 million deal, structured in such a way to provide short term cap relief. The powers-that-be wanted to shut the mediots up and they knew this would do it. I don't see any way whatsoever he plays next year under this current deal. The 2020 and 2021 years in this deal aren't even worth the paper their printed on. As such, everyone gets to table negotiations until summer 2020 without the media spotlight of Brady being in his "walk year".

Just one man's theory....

It also sets up the NEPs as the perceived villains asking Brady to take less, rather than Brady being the villain demanding more. The Patriots have no problem taking on that role.

 

[Biffins]

23 million?? That can't be true. That would mean the mediots were wrong again.

2yr 70m extension. 8 paid this year (along with this year’s salary), other 62 next 2 years.

2yr 70m makes him highest paid qb (joint) in league.

 

[Clonamery]

2yr 70m extension. 8 paid this year (along with this year’s salary), other 62 next 2 years.

2yr 70m makes him highest paid qb (joint) in league.

Keep your distance from Josh Gordon, we want him back.

 

[Urgent]

According to Miguel, the Pats Cap is now at $13 million. It's good enough to bring in a player like Trent Williams and still have enough emergency money.

Not at Trent Williams’ $11mm salary.

That $13mm is offseason top 51.
Doesn’t include players 52 and 53.
Doesn’t include practice squad.
Doesn’t include dead money for waived players at cutdown.
Doesn’t include replacements for players on IR.

Teams need plenty of buffer for all those.

They could afford maybe a $4 or $5mm tight end or swing tackle. They’d have to do more maneuvering to afford $11mm.

 

[maust]

It also sets up the NEPs as the perceived villains asking Brady to take less, rather than Brady being the villain demanding more. The Patriots have no problem taking on that role.

Our little team that couldn't has come a long way.
"You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain"

 

[Ring 6]

2yr 70m extension. 8 paid this year (along with this year’s salary), other 62 next 2 years.

2yr 70m makes him highest paid qb (joint) in league.

He is 6th highest paid which is definitely below market.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Not at Trent Williams’ $11mm salary.

That $13mm is offseason top 51.
Doesn’t include players 52 and 53.
Doesn’t include practice squad.
Doesn’t include dead money for waived players at cutdown.
Doesn’t include replacements for players on IR.

Teams need plenty of buffer for all those.

They could afford maybe a $4 or $5mm tight end or swing tackle. They’d have to do more maneuvering to afford $11mm.

 

[Biffins]

Well, it's 2/3rds fake contract.

I don’t think that it’s a fake contract. It’s just not guaranteed. If Brady plays poorly in 2019 he’ll have to renegotiate to stay on as Patriot in 2020. If he plays well, get ready for a $37m cap hit next year.

After Mahomes signs a 40m per year deal, we’ll call this cheap.